Spree, No I know which way you're betting. For me it's a little bit deeper than just seeing whose right however.
I use the charts for the floor and ceiling. The middle ground is more troublesome but only if you don't have positions to play off. Regarding the markets and my use of the charts what I see is a heavy correction. I'll spare you the details as it's just my view and could be seen as bashing by some, and I don't need to get into that mess.
Just MY opinion but Nok isn't going to sign now or in June, July or Aug for that matter. You can refer to the 10k but 60 days after the Ericy issue is resolved we now just start the formal discussions? Which are 90 days plus. The original statement from the company stated a period was SET after Ericy was resolved which was agreed on back in 99. So why the 60 days before the formal talks? In any event the soonest I would guess is Sept. It's my feeling NOK will not be in any rush. I'm envisioning something closer to what transpired between Nok/Qcom. Frankly if I was Nok I would go for arbitration. I don't see were they would lose anything and they could get perhaps a far better deal. In any event they would still qualify for the 20 percent after finalization I believe. Form their point of view what the rush? They still have that 3G contract to dangle in front of us to keep us in line. It's their playing field, they got the ball and the money.
Regarding new licenses, I hope so, that would be very refreshing. They're going to need some to fill the gap : They need to fill the 20.3 for pre 2003 sales. If it wouldn't have been for that they would have made less in 1st qt 2003 than they did in 1st 2002.
Revenues in first quarter 2003 of $37.3 million increased $16.4 million, or 78%, over first quarter 2002 revenues of $20.9 million. The increase was due largely to the recognition of $24.7 million of royalties associated with new patent license agreements with Ericsson and Sony Ericsson, offset in part, by an expected decrease of $1.9 million in specialized engineering service revenue.
" Included in the $24.7 million was $20.3 million of royalties from Sony Ericsson related to pre-2003 handset sales"
Again I do think IDCC has a future. It certainly has a lot of good things on the table for 2004. I'm just not as comfortable with the company or the market short term.
In any event Good Luck to you.
AI
