Intel Corp (INTC)

[wbmw]

If 20nm went into risk production in Q1 2013 and first QCOM silcion doesn't come until Q1 2015, then risk production of 16 FinFET in Q4 2013 suggests Q4 2015 product launch.

All you are doing is putting the same judgment into both nodes. Historically, each time they've updated their process roadmap, the boxes have shifted to the right. My point remains the same, though. Either they are "right this time", and Intel is the only one fumbling with 14nm technology - in which case Intel loses their process leadership.

The other possibility is that Intel's issues are indicative of 14nm process being really hard, and TSMC's history of moving "boxes to the right" doesn't end here. A FinFET is an exotic departure from traditional transistor design, and it's not just the process itself that needs to build them correctly. The design as well needs to accommodate the unique properties of these transistors, and so everything from the design flows to the tools is brand new.

Hard to believe from my perspective that they get it right, and all of the ecosystem also gets it right - on the most difficult process transition to date.

But there's always a first time for everything, so if you want to argue "this time is different", then feel free to put your money where your mouth is, and buy some stock in TSMC and Qualcomm.