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Sunday, May 04, 2014 10:13:43 AM
Fannie and Freddie shareholders today have no real equity in the companies. Had the 3rd Amendment not occurred, they would have approximately $130B in regulatory capital cushion. The Treasury preferred outstanding is $188B,leaving a capital deficit of ~$60B for today's private shareholders (i.e. the $130B is all Treasury money). I will also add that that deficit is calculated on the old capital requirements, which would be increased if the companies were ever to leave conservatorship again.
So assuming the perfectly legal 3rd amendment never happened and Fannie and Freddie actually could leave conservatorship (they can't), Berkowitz and co. would have to run around and find more than $60B in equity capital (probably at least $100B, because the 60 just gets you to absolute minimum capital requirements) to come in alongside current shareholders. That deal is not happening. Current shareholders have no valuable capital, and little to no going concern value. New investors would recognize that, and value your shares in a deal accordingly. Even if you could raise the $60-100B, you/current shareholders would be left with a token equity interest at best. Congress & the Treasury recognize that, and hence has more or less ignored shareholders. GSE shareholders have nothing and consequently have no influence.
You'll do well to leave the party now. Thank Berkowitz, Ackman, and Perry for a fun night and leave them at the door.
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