Mega/Board I have little doubt, and never have, about the Market Potential. That study was done wayyyyyyyyy back and independently prior to XM going on the national roll out in Nov of 01.
I disagree that Siri will be first, they are 12 months behind XM financially, and have a picture 1/4 - 1/5 that of xm which is historically the ratio Wallstreet puts on the 2 equities. As we speak the value of Siri is $5 and XM is $21+.
Siri has good content and with Mel good management but they have a lot of ground to make up. Now they have taken up commercials to pay for Stern.
imho
Siri's best bet is a reverse split and you may see one since they have a Billion+ shares out, just picture them doing a 2 for 1 split, oh yeah.
XM on the other hand has roughly 1/4 of the shares and it could do a 2 for 1, but imo not likely.
XM is Cash Flow Breakeven this year, Siri is not.
XMSR needs sorely to maintain the increase % in Subs and **most of all** to address the mostly costly element of their late performance the S.A.C. costs (subscriber acquisition costs)
The SAC had been going down dramatically for some time, and then as of late increased. Ultimately you can't continue to make less on each customer when you are losing on each to start with.
So the battle rages: Parson will need to change the SAC direction if we want to see a(favorable) change in SP.
I sold my position out at $38 held 10% and bailed at $33 Now I am waiting for a Panero and Parsons change in SAC.
BOL
