| Followers | 831 |
| Posts | 120052 |
| Boards Moderated | 17 |
| Alias Born | 09/05/2002 |
Saturday, October 02, 2004 11:25:15 PM
>> I think the bottom line for agix is the arise-events trial will be the new binary event and a HUGE one at that. <<
Is ARISE really a binary event? I can think of more than two outcomes (ordered from best to worst):
1. ARISE shows a statistically significant lower incidence of heart attacks and other cardiovascular SAE’s for AGI-1067 relative to placebo.
2. As above but a close miss instead of a hit (p>.05 and <.10).
3. No benefit in reducing SAE’s but a statistically significant reduction in plaque volume on an intent-to-treat basis (i.e. no cherry picking of data).
4. As in #3, but a close miss instead of a hit.
5. No benefit in either a reduction of SAE’s or plaque volume. Nevertheless, AGIX continues development of AGI-1067, perhaps reverting to the original indication of reducing restenosis in stent patients.
6. AGIX nixes the entire AGI-1067 program.
--
If you are going to conduct a backgammon type of analysis on the various outcomes, it looks like you have more than two dice sequences to consider
Is ARISE really a binary event? I can think of more than two outcomes (ordered from best to worst):
1. ARISE shows a statistically significant lower incidence of heart attacks and other cardiovascular SAE’s for AGI-1067 relative to placebo.
2. As above but a close miss instead of a hit (p>.05 and <.10).
3. No benefit in reducing SAE’s but a statistically significant reduction in plaque volume on an intent-to-treat basis (i.e. no cherry picking of data).
4. As in #3, but a close miss instead of a hit.
5. No benefit in either a reduction of SAE’s or plaque volume. Nevertheless, AGIX continues development of AGI-1067, perhaps reverting to the original indication of reducing restenosis in stent patients.
6. AGIX nixes the entire AGI-1067 program.
--
If you are going to conduct a backgammon type of analysis on the various outcomes, it looks like you have more than two dice sequences to consider
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
