I agree with your first sentence but not with your second. Based on the CC guidance about cash usage in 2009, I don’t think shorting based on the expectation of a financing deal explains the recent share-price dynamics. However, NVS’ majority stake causes IDIX to have a low float, which makes the stock more volatile than the stocks of most biotech companies with a similar market cap.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”
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