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Thursday, May 24, 2007 1:20:50 AM
1. % PCR-negative in each trial arm.
2. Yes/no on whether there is a meaningful drug interaction.
>Everyone seems to think the 10% is a no-brainer.<
I don’t think it’s a no-brainer because there could be a meaningful drug interaction. Provided that there is no meaningful drug interaction, I think the 10% increment is likely but not automatic.
To put some numbers on this, I think the probability of a meaningful drug interaction is 18%. In the 82% of cases where there is no meaningful drug interaction, I think the 10% increment in PCR-negativity at 12 weeks can be achieved with a probability of 74%. Thus, my probabilities give a 61% (.82x.74) chance of a successful trial.
(Please don’t hassle me about using numbers that are not rounded to the nearest 5%. As a backgammon player, that’s simply the way I think.)
Your guesses on the price action seem reasonable. Regards, Dew
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”
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