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Any explanation for the ~55% haircut in the last 90 days? (Beside the market turmoil / risk aversion)? MNTA is now priced below pre-mL approval levels.
Some serious capitulation.
Black and Blue ... and definitely red.
((Why is there so many {{ }} posts on this board? Remarkable number.. What ever happened to the kinder, gentler, Henry Kissinger symbols (( ))..... ??))
lol. My apologies for going to {} side. :)
{{What are you talking about? You were the one making grand pronouncements and you listed only the negatives. I was critical so asked for specifics as you predicted a major market correction but when pressed for specifics you wouldn't say how long it wouldn't predict how long it would last. }}
I had proposed and continue to propose that we revisit this thread in 12-18 months. Let's leave it at that.
{{At least you are beginning to put in some specifics, but you need to add more. How quickly will the drop occur? How long will it last? The DOW is a very poor choice since there are so few stocks and can be easily moved by one or two companies. There is a big difference between a 1987 type of flash crash/rapid rebound and long-lasting sustained decline.}}
Vin, I don't purport to know the specifics of the future. But I do believe that the global financial system is overextended, built on cheap money, that this model is unsustainable, and needs a meaningful reset. The correction that has taken place thus far is necessary but not sufficient. That is why I am calling for a broader sell-off over the next 18 months. The reset will happen only when there is widescale capitulation. I don't see that sort of capitulation anytime soon in the broader market. It will require at least a further 20% drop, perhaps more. How long it will last depends on the specific response from policy makers. I tend to believe they have used much of their ammunition already (QE, 0% rates, etc) -- a loss of confidence in their ability to keep things propped up will result in a longer-term decline/stagnation of the markets.
{{I see the sky is falling doom and gloom is in vogue. Yes there are serious geopolitical issues, but when aren't there.... Lot of worry and uncertainty for sure but still lots of positives. Caution is the operative word.}}
My {sky is falling} language "Unpredictable instability has become the new normal... veritable litany of doom" is not my own. That is the language used by James Clapper, the National Director of Intelligence, in his annual briefing re: US National Security Threats to the Senate Intelligence Community on Tuesday. The geopolitical dynamics are significantly more serious than they were in the last 30 years. If you disagree with assessments of National Security leaders in the United States, that is of course your right.
On another note -- I find your feedback regarding my perspective a bit ironic. You criticize my lack of specificity (wanting to know exactly how the drop will happen and when it will recover), while taking an extremely nebulous position -- You urge "caution" about the future but highlight all the positives for the consumer. You question a major correction, while contemporaneously advising that a continued downward slide is obvious. With your ability to critique others while hedging your own position, you should run for office.
Vin,
I expect a major correction, an additional 20% drop (at least) within 12 - 18 months on the DOW. On the macrolevel, there are a number of volatile geopolitical issues that have the potential to trigger more serious market dislocations. Unpredictable instability has become the new normal... veritable litany of doom.
Let's revisit this thread in 12 - 18 months. I believe the market will reflect my perspective -- major correction coming.
Not trying to distort reality. Factually speaking, the bull run from the bottom to the top was stunning. Just look at a chart and you will see how exhausted the market looks. Moreover, this run was on the back of a lack of meaningful fundamental improvements --- Every major economy is printing money, while taking on record amounts of debt. Modern peoples are unwilling to endure any sort of austerity, which leads to this dislocation as policy makers try to keep things afloat at any cost. It is not sustainable.
The market ran from Dow 6600 (2008) to Dow 18000 (2015). (Tripled in 7 years on the back of Central Bank's printing money --- was there a 'real' reason for the markets to triple in 7 years? I don't think so, just asset bubbles on the back of this quantitative easing -- i certainly didn't feel a 3x 'correction' on mainstreet).
I suspect we have a lot of room to move down, as the herd is now realizing the unsustainability of global central bank practices.
Looks like a full blown market collapse... What price to back up the truck re MNTA. 9 bucks? Looks pretty cheap down here already, but I suspect the liquidation of positions in mkt will exacerbate downside for large parts of the market. Interesting times.
Mouton,
MNTA's intellectual property ("sweat of the brow") is being totally trampled on by the majority opinion. I'm very surprised at the interpretation that the court took in making their decision.
It is unfair that Amphastar (or anyone else for that matter) can "trespass" on MNTA's sophisticated characterization processes to validate sameness of their biologic products, all in the name of satisfying "FDA manufacturing and submission requirements." Way to support innovation!
This is one reason Wheeler stated that the ruling "has potentially wide ranging implications for all patent holders."
At some point, I believe the FDA will mandate a similar framework for establishing sameness for mC as it did for mL.
But I don't think we can rely on the TEVA orange book process patents as a mechanism to help establish sameness, in the same way Amphastar relied on MNTA's patents.
lol ... I can't even count the number of "good buying opportunities" we've had for MNTA... this stock is a total yawn. Time for a good selling opportunity. :)
Nope. Warrants expire in less than a few months. Warrants are being exercised.
Tough couple of weeks for MNTA longs... hope everyone is doing alright. I've noticed tension and a lot of pent up frustration in some of the board member posts.
Keep hope alive, and let us hope next week brings good things for Momenta. Hopefully we can catch some of the market rally.
That stay, could theoretically be reversed. Though that is unlikely, we have $400 million in the bank to weather these dark days for MNTA's stock.
MNTA may be the first company in history to be cashflow positive, have a positive outlook, have 1 billion in the bank -- and have a market cap of 800 million. :) (I am of course being sarcastic).
I think that patience is a virtue with MNTA, and believe it will eventually pay off. That being said, I've had so many "good buying opportunities" .. would love to get a "good selling opportunity".
I should have bought more ALXN or CRM 3 years ago, but hindsight is 20/20. I am going to stick this out and see what happens in 3-4 years.
MNTA Enterprise Value, by my calculation, is now ~$375 million. How does present EV compare to EV over the last 12-36 months?
Believe me, I already have a bunch. I would add more, if it got cheaper. Good luck to us both!
Not a bad deal ... considering they have $400 million in cash, that is about $8 in book value. I was thinking of adding this morning, but am hopeful it will pull back with the rest of the market if we go into a swoon. Would love to add a bunch @ 13-14.
The real question is - will the market price MNTA favorably in our lifetime? Nasdaq has rallied nearly 25% over the last 6 months, and MNTA is down 5%. As a long-time MNTA holder, I'm quite accustomed to MNTA delivering on their stated "milestones", and the market consequently yawning.
That being said, the "market price" did seem to predict the Amphastar/Watson approval, though many experts on this board felt that was a relatively unlikely scenario in medium-term.
But the market has been wrong before -- I remember when Shlomo Yanai, (CEO of TEVA) was actively deceiving the investor community-- claiming that TEVA's generic enox application was about to be imminently approved. (That was in 2010, a month after mnta's mL was just approved).
The market price is the combined predictive ability of those who are a lot wealthier (and often a lot more connected) than the small cadre of amateur investors on this site. Are they perfect... no... could they go bullish on MNTA, yes, but only after MNTA starts to reliably print money in Boston.
Patience is a virtue....
Sober as a mule.
The market discounts the possibility of near-term mC approval. It is sending strong signals (through price action) that tL is likely in the near-term. I don't think MNTA is being priced for worst case scenario, it is being priced for the most-expected scenario....
In other words, the price action indicates that MNTA has less going for it today than it did several years ago.
Several months ago, I was on this board, agreeing with many of you that MNTA would likely goto 25-40 on mL approval (sole-generic scenario). Here we are with MNTA hitting that milestone, and it continues to be priced below its pre-approval levels....
In light of the recent offering and the anemic price action, I am skeptical this moves significantly higher in the next 12 months. The only possibility is a buyout or a big partnership ... but to be honest, its pretty telling they still have nothing.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice....
TEVA won't back down and the analysts are for the most part ignorant. (You heard the RBS call earlier this week) TEVA will keep spinning this story. I really thought that a year after mL sole-generic approval, that MNTA would be, at least, in the high teens or low twenties... boy was I wrong. (unlike some on this board, i am willing to admit my mistakes... but i also intend to learn from them)
I don't think this is a "gotcha" moment ... but if it makes you feel better to think you "got me" on this one, so be it. Now, if you could just make the stock price move (higher), we would both be happy.
Cheers.
I referred to MNTA the stock symbol (not Momenta the company)... i don't know any "investor" (except for maybe philanthropists) who are not seeking a return on their investment. Are you investing in MNTA just for the heck of it, or to make some money?
I have a old friend on this board, who shall remain anonymous.... i advised him about 2 years ago that TEVA HQ in Jerusalem would not let MNTA "walk all over them". TEVA HQ is adept at crushing and vexing its competition -- those who expect mC to be the end-game, don't really understand the significance of MNTA's stock price cratering from 26-->12 after mL approval. The only hope MNTA has at this point ... is becoming acquired (which i feel is very likely over the next few months). TEVA has a lot of friends at this game and they will make sure MNTA (and its investors) don't get a leg up (even though they have won "fair in square"). Good luck MNTA longs... but you are swimming against a big tide, and better hope you are scooped up by the NVS yacht.
How do you know what the market focused on? You would be a fool if you thought you 'knew' what led MNTA's stock price to crater from 26 --> 12. I still don't really know. It certainly isn't tL approval ... everyone knew that was a distinct possibility, even during the pre-approval era (when the stock was 15-16)
You want to see a real blockbuster chart...
Look at the 5-yr chart of Alexion Pharma (ALXN) vs. Momentaless Pharma (MNTA)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MNTA&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=alxn
:)
mL (sole generic) approval did nothing for the stock... why should we expect mC approval to be any different. Sure there are some nuances affecting post-mL approval pricing -- royalty structure, TEVA's threats, etc... but mC approval is no more of a "goldmine" than mL was touted to be. (some new overhang will come up). The only hope we have is a acquisition of MNTA.
P.S. The weather in Tripoli, Wisconsin and Tripoli, Iowa are less than ideal. The weather in Tripoli, Libya is a beautiful 75 degrees Fahrenheit, with a slight chance of revolution. :P
Tekcor's analysis explains the price action better than the "news" ... the "news or story" (mL approval) is out of sync with the price. In that respect, news is for the most part irrelevant, price action is the only thing that pays.
Big Event...
How about sole-generic lovenox approval? 8 months later... we are below pre-approval price levels.
I don't think mC approval will necessary move the price higher. At this point, flatulence in the wind is more likely to move the price than a binary event ... welcome to our crazy world.
Hilarious .... If TEVA would have done half as good a job as RS did on the RBS call, MNTA would be down 15%, and TEVA up 5%. But notwithstanding RS' phenomenal performance, MNTA stock is still below pre-approval levels. I loved how RS referred to "TEVA" and those "persons who ally with TEVA" making a big deal about non-issues (e.g. i assume he is referring to Tim Anderson among others)
I do have to say ... this lack of price action is getting downright ridiculous. Many of our fellow board members are old men, some in their 50's and 60's ... they may die before this stock moves above $15 per share. :)
Pretty phenomenal that the stock is trading below its pre-approval levels almost 8 months after receiving sole-generic approval. It was higher years ago... amazing.
They are making out like bandits with those options... no wonder they are in no rush to get the PPS moving higher. Meanwhile, shareholders are still in stock appreciation purgatory.
I ran out of exuberance... for now ... :)
I am cautiously optimistic on MNTA, and the economy as a whole. I see this as a war, and not a battle... this could take some time.
Truly the MO of TEVA. They asserted a similar "train of thought" when they profess that Lovenox can be safely replicated but that there is no safe way to replicate Copaxone. :)
I should also point out that the FDA has been exceedingly aggressive in their support for the complex molecule approval framework that MNTA essentially proposed/designed. I would not be surprised to see them approve Copaxone in the near future.
MNTA Generic Copaxone FDA approval announced today/tomorrow? :)
jbog, you will know what the market sentiment has changed ... it hasn't happened yet.
You will know when it happens when MNTA's PPS jumps back to its 52 week high and breaks out above that.