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Dr Copper:
One traditional barometer of the economy is copper. The obj using daily pnf (atr 200day) is approx 1.00 / lb vs current price of 2.60. If even close as a prediction, the economy will be a disaster, as will the stock mkt.
Equity income:
What is "safe"??
The historical answer from the Depression was dividend from stalwarts like ATT. Generalizing,a solid stable company with conservative finances paying an affordable but high dividend would seem to be the definition. One measure of financial performance is the Return on Assets; you cant afford to pay out more than you can make on the assets you deploy.
You also want some expectation that the money you invest would not be worth substantially less in the long term, or in other words only buy when down significantly from the highs.
The sector which most oversold long term is energy, and more specifically major oil companies. Two with high dividends and ROA higher than dividend yield are Shell RDS/A and Equinor EQNR, a Norwegian oil company. Both have 6.0% or better yields and are likely to be here long after we are all dead.
Just a suggestion for anyone worrying about "income" in the next decade
SPX the 9day high seems to be in, but risk/reward is poor. Next 18day high due approx 8/21. Waiting for overbought condition, 2950-3000.
Oddlot
SPX cycle status: applying the theoretical structure to the observed real world, the expectations are as follows.
The 6.56yr low on 6W2016 proceeds to 35W2022.
The 3.28yr low on 51W2018 proceeds to 14W2022. Note the 21week difference, but averages to mid 2022.
The 1.64yr/86week low 51W2018 proceeds to 33W2020. Or 8/13/2020.
The 43week low on 51W2018 proceeds to 42W2019 or 10/15/19.
The 21week low on 21W19 proceeds to 42W19, also 10/15/19.
The 43week 216day cycle is considered to have 3×72day cycles within. The low on 6/1/19 proceeds to 9/16/19. We are starting day48.
The 36day low proceeds to 9/10.
The next 18day low is due 8/14.
Obviously, the lows will synchronize. What happens between 9/16 and 10/15 is unknown; the actual low could be in the middle, or we could see an extra little bounce from one point to the next.
SUPERPOSITION of Cycles suggests that the 6.6yr high and 3.3yr low occurring together should move the composite high to one side of the theoretical peak by half of the length of a shorter cycle. One possibility is the 43week cyclic period, and one could estimate the time of superposition peak by counting forward approx 43weeks from the last major high (in Sept2018). We are starting week46 from the high in Sept, and the recent high was in week44. So this analysis implies and mkt action apparently confirms that the 6.6yr high has been seen, and that trend should be toward the lows due mid 2022.
There is a lot of time between now and 2022, and shorting into overbought cyclic peaks seems proper. The highs seen so far should provide formidable resistance and not be broken on a sustained basis. Hence the strategy to sell rallies and play the short side only.
Oddlot
SPX time to have entry stops under mkt to prevent missing the coming downmove. Will advise Monday am.
Oddlot
SPX recent pullback serves as midcycle correction, generating updated obj of 3000
Continue order to short at 2954, will add after peak and reversal.
Imho, imminent. 1-2days max
SPX after breaking the intraday FLD 9 by a minor amount, it retraced and followed the FLD9 down until it reversed and crossed again at approx 2905. This creates a cyclic obj for 9day cyclic peak of as approx 2965. My technique is modified from Hurst approach.
Continue rec to short at 2954.
Oddlot
SPX the 18day channel is approx 2975 at the opening, but my target is 2957. Sell short at 2954
SPX short the first 1/2 unit at 2954, cxlg the higher px. Will add on failure after the high.
Oddlot
SPX the 36day cyclic low occurred with low of 2973 and close of 2976. Shorting 1/2 unit at 2969 if offered would be a start.
Oddlot
SPX the channel for the 18day cycle will have an upper bound at end of Friday of approx 2965. A rally to this area, or slightly above, followed by tech signals of failure should be sold, IMHO.
The 30min cci for 9days is OB, and for 18days is on the way up. A sell by the cci for 18day would likely be successful, IMHO.
Oddlot
The rally towards the 9 day high seems to be in place. Pnf obj at "absurd" levels near 2990 but consider 2940 as likely.
Oddlot
SPX this is also day 13 of the 2nd 36day cycle within the 72day. The low point of the 72day would therefore be expected approx Sept10
Oddlot
SPX this is day 13 of the 18day cycle. Look for continued pressure until midweek next, say Wednesday.
The 9day ma of FLD216 (point at which slope of ma216 flips negative) will be 2785-2790, and a sustained break of that area gives obj of 2575 area.
Oddlot
SPX if mkt can break above and hold 2885-2890 area, target becomes 2950 area. Should not exceed 2985 area.
Using a 9/18/36 day set, this is day7. A rally high should be evident by Friday.
Oddlot
Cancel the buy at 2812, I just talked myself out of it.
The slopes of ma's of all cycle periods less than 3.3 yrs, with exception of 43week, are negative. As the MA represents the sum of all cyclic forces longer than the MA, the 43week is the odd man out. The peak in Sept18 could/should produce a cyclic high approx 43weeks later, and we just passed the 43week point 1-2 weeks ago. Slopes don't flip until halfway through the move, and nominally 5-10 weeks from the high in this instance. So a case can be made that the high has already been made, but not enough time has elapsed to allow the MA slope to flip.
The time between April high and July high was 12 weeks, and it is likely that the time period between low in May and the end of this decline will be similar. We are in week 10, implying further weakness for 2-3 weeks. A strong rally immediately should be sold on failure, with the 2-3 week time horizon. Afterwards, a rally within a bear mkt is likely to occur.
I think ahimsak has called it well, and before I did.
Oddlot
Gold obj 1560-1600 at peak of 480day cycle
Oddlot
SPX buy at 2812 GTC, risk 30pts from entry.
Oddlot
So, why was the low 2915 on Fri?? Possibly, because at that level the slope of the 216 day MA flips from up to down (actually, a 9ma of that level).
So, what? A major cycle is 216days/43weeks. The point at which an MA equal to half length of cycle is makes the slope change is HALF of the distance from peak to trough. So 3025 to 2915 is 110; 2915 - 110 is 2805. So the 432day, 1.66yr cycle is expected to bottom near that point.
Oddlot
The guy at Nomura has been right way more often than wrong but speaks in Greek. Actually, all of the option formula letters...I need to go to option school.
Oddlot
SPX out of long position on the open at 2898, for a 40pt loss. With the mkt breaking the FLD36 level near 2880, it may head towards 2740. At this writing, the FLD area seems to be providing some support, but the outcome is likely a small bounce followed by a break of the intraday lows and the debacle continues...
Oddlot
SPX status: Fri close 2932. Cyclical objs 36day 3050, 72day in flux because slope of hourly cma has flattened with too small a history to extrapolate with confidence but obj from FLD is 3090, 216day 3130.
Plenty of potential as long as price does not drop below 2880 area, which would lead to obj for 72day cycle of approx 2740. The 36day FLD downside target of 2920 area was filled.
Pnf obj for 10min atr is 2980, so a near-term bounce is a likely outcome.
Holding long SPX from 2938.6
Oddlot
Agreed. As described on post#33339, the theoretical high should occur in 2-3 weeks (+/-) or early 2020 (+/-).
Oddlot
SPX long 2938.6, stop 2908.
90. Slope is positive for cycles 216 and 72. Obj for 216day cycle remains 3100 area. CCI for both were extremely oversold and shorter cycles gave buy signals. Worth a try.
Oddlot
SPX go long on stop 2938.55, risking 2909
SPX the theoretical cyclic construct starts on 6th week 2016 (6W16) and contains a 6.6yr cycle, 2 3.3yr cycles, 8 43week cycles. The 43week has 3 72day, 2 36day, and 4 18day cycles. The 3.3yr low was due 22W19, and the next 43week cycle is due 13W20. Given that the 6.6yr low in 2022 should see a solid downtrend into the low, a solid high is expected well before that and perhaps as the high of the 43week following the 3.3yr low of 2019.
If so, the high of the present 43week theoretical cycle would be likely near 22W + 11 (33W19) or near 22W + 32 (2W20). The first point is 2-3 weeks away.
The high of this 43week cycle should coincide with highs of the shorter term cycles (72,36,18 day). The projected highs for these are all about the same, at 3075-3090 + an amplitude of a shorter term cycle. The combined total (the projected high) is 3100-3150.
Once the mkt enters that zone, mkt action and your favorite indicators should be used to identify the occurrence of the top and to signal an entry on the short side.
I use trendlines on intraday charts as well as CCI signals for relevant cyclic periods.
Oddlot
SPX the theoretical cyclic construct starts on 6th week 2016 (6W16) and contains a 6.6yr cycle, 2 3.3yr cycles, 8 43week cycles. The 43week has 3 72day, 2 36day, and 4 18day cycles. The 3.3yr low was due 22W19, and the next 43week cycle is due 13W20. Given that the 6.6yr low in 2022 should see a solid downtrend into the low, a solid high is expected well before that and perhaps as the high of the 43week following the 3.3yr low of 2019.
If so, the high of the present 43week theoretical cycle would be likely near 22W + 11 (33W19) or near 22W + 32 (2W20). The first point is 2-3 weeks away.
The high of this 43week cycle should coincide with highs of the shorter term cycles (72,36,18 day). The projected highs for these are all about the same, at 3075-3090 + an amplitude of a shorter term cycle. The combined total (the projected high) is 3100-3150.
Once the mkt enters that zone, mkt action and your favorite indicators should be used to identify the occurrence of the top and to signal an entry on the short side.
I use trendlines on intraday charts as well as CCI signals for relevant cyclic periods.
Oddlot
You may be absolutely right...however several factors concern me. The cyclic structure goes to a (years) 1,2 4,8 type of pattern. The direction of the 8yr MA is down, which is concerning and suggests shorts at extreme OB levels.
The half cycle (4yr) changed direction when prices were approx 1300 vs low of 1050, for LT upside of approx 1550. With recent highs near 1450, there is still room above but CCI125 for the 8yr cycle is very overbought near +250. The sell signal is normally a crossing of +100, but some traders ratchet the sell point higher as it crosses above the next 100pts higher. In that case, the indicator near 250 would suggest a crossing of +200 could be used as a sell.
Good luck.
Oddlot
Hello all. Am out of mkt due to family health problems, but expect high of current 43 week and 72 day cycles to occur near-term, perhaps in 1-2 weeks. Target 3075-3125 SPX. Given price of 3075+, would use sell signal from CCI22 (for 72day cycle) to establish shorts (or at minimum to significantly lighten up) with stops over highs. Unsure of downside yet, but 2600-2700 would not surprise.
Oddlot
SPX etc. Closed everything except GLD at the close. Have a great holiday.
Oddlot
Re SPX SDS SMH etc sold half today near close. Mostly offline now. Good luck to all.
Oddlot
SPX LT analysis:
Obj from FLD for 43week and 86week cycles agree at approx 2500-2525.
Swing obj, assuming 2525 is filled, is formed from 2625/2925 or 300pt move as order of magnitude. Typically 80% of move is safer projection. From 2625, this becomes 2385 area.
Pnf obj daily atr basis is approx 2425, in general agreement
The FLD 86week, for 3.3yr cycle is 2360 now, and 2380 at year end.
With the calendar expectation of lows week19-22 of 2019, a reasonable assumption is that the move to 2425-2450 occurs and then the mkt bounces. Then another downswing occurs, going below the FLD level for 3.3yr obj of 500pts below FLD crossing for nominal target of 1800-1900 in mid 2019.
Oddlot
SPX LT analysis:
Obj from FLD for 43week and 86week cycles agree at approx 2500-2525.
Swing obj, assuming 2525 is filled, is formed from 2625/2925 or 300pt move as order of magnitude. Typically 80% of move is safer projection. From 2625, this becomes 2385 area.
Pnf obj daily atr basis is approx 2425, in general agreement
The FLD 86week, for 3.3yr cycle is 2360 now, and 2380 at year end.
With the calendar expectation of lows week19-22 of 2019, a reasonable assumption is that the move to 2425-2450 occurs and then the mkt bounces. Then another downswing occurs, going below the FLD level for 3.3yr obj of 500pts below FLD crossing for nominal target of 1800-1900 in mid 2019.
Oddlot
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This is day31 of 36day cycle. The existing downtrend should strengthen into the low.
Oddlot
Purchased additional SDS at 39.33. Now holding from 35.20, 37.20, and 39.33.
Oddlot
Purchased additional SDS at 39.33. Now holding from 35.20, 37.20, and 39.33.
Oddlot
Purchased additional SDS at 39.33. Now holding from 35.20, 37.20, and 39.33.
Oddlot