SPX cycle status: applying the theoretical structure to the observed real world, the expectations are as follows.
The 6.56yr low on 6W2016 proceeds to 35W2022.
The 3.28yr low on 51W2018 proceeds to 14W2022. Note the 21week difference, but averages to mid 2022.
The 1.64yr/86week low 51W2018 proceeds to 33W2020. Or 8/13/2020.
The 43week low on 51W2018 proceeds to 42W2019 or 10/15/19.
The 21week low on 21W19 proceeds to 42W19, also 10/15/19.
The 43week 216day cycle is considered to have 3×72day cycles within. The low on 6/1/19 proceeds to 9/16/19. We are starting day48.
The 36day low proceeds to 9/10.
The next 18day low is due 8/14.
Obviously, the lows will synchronize. What happens between 9/16 and 10/15 is unknown; the actual low could be in the middle, or we could see an extra little bounce from one point to the next.
SUPERPOSITION of Cycles suggests that the 6.6yr high and 3.3yr low occurring together should move the composite high to one side of the theoretical peak by half of the length of a shorter cycle. One possibility is the 43week cyclic period, and one could estimate the time of superposition peak by counting forward approx 43weeks from the last major high (in Sept2018). We are starting week46 from the high in Sept, and the recent high was in week44. So this analysis implies and mkt action apparently confirms that the 6.6yr high has been seen, and that trend should be toward the lows due mid 2022.
There is a lot of time between now and 2022, and shorting into overbought cyclic peaks seems proper. The highs seen so far should provide formidable resistance and not be broken on a sustained basis. Hence the strategy to sell rallies and play the short side only.
Oddlot
Stay on the right side of the cycle!
