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$SPX Hurst theory includes strategies based on the price at which a Moving Average changes slope from positive to negative or vs versa. Assuming sine wave period of L, if it crosses zero at day zero and again at L/2, these are the days when slope changes. And at any time, the slope will flip at price (t- n/2). Stockcharts shows that price on a price chart by displaced price by n/2 as in sma(1,n/2). If the second number is positive, the prices are moved forward; if negative, it is moved backwards. This is more commonly used to "center" a moving average, but can show the price where slope changes occur.
WHY DO WE CARE??
Because if you use a halfwave length, the price where SMA(L) changes slope is the place where price has traveled half of total distance from trough to peak, or vs versa. This allows price projections of the cyclical top bottom for different cycles.
That said, following are some projections for certain cycles:
18day: approx 3900
36day: approx 3900
72day: approx 4240
While I concur with targets above 3900, I hesitate re 4240 because the 216day cycle flips at 4100-4125 and I NOT agree with target of new highs. Therefore I limit the rally to approx 4100, followed by major decline towards 6-7 yr lows next year, probably under 3000 and possibly to 2250 or lower
Good trades,
Oddlot
$SPX Hurst theory includes strategies based on the price at which a Moving Average changes slope from positive to negative or vs versa. Assuming sine wave period of L, if it crosses zero at day zero and again at L/2, these are the days when slope changes. And at any time, the slope will flip at price (t- n/2). Stockcharts shows that price on a price chart by displaced price by n/2 as in sma(1,n/2). If the second number is positive, the prices are moved forward; if negative, it is moved backwards. This is more commonly used to "center" a moving average, but can show the price where slope changes occur.
WHY DO WE CARE??
Because if you use a halfwave length, the price where SMA(L) changes slope is the place where price has traveled half of total distance from trough to peak, or vs versa. This allows price projections of the cyclical top bottom for different cycles.
That said, following are some projections for certain cycles:
18day: approx 3900
36day: approx 3900
72day: approx 4240
Unfortunately no, for reasons you would never believe.
IMHO the 20w low has occurred. The straightest part of a sine wave is 1/4L, and centered at the midpoint of the upleg, and also the center of the downleg. For the 20w, the slope of a 5week sma should approximate those legs. If the slope during the downleg is only allowed to become more negative, a trendline with that slope approximates the channel boundary surrounding the 20w sma. Such a trendline was soundly violated this week and hence the low has occurred. Presumably, the 40w sma slope will remain negative and the FLD suggests that the run-up would not exceed 4000-4050 area. Given the bearish scenario LT, this would be an excellent area to Short, imho.
IMHO the 20w low has occurred. The straightest part of a sine wave is 1/4L, and centered at the midpoint of the upleg, and also the center of the downleg. For the 20w, the slope of a 5week sma should approximate those legs. If the slope during the downleg is only allowed to become more negative, a trendline with that slope approximates the channel boundary surrounding the 20w sma. Such a trendline was soundly violated this week and hence the low has occurred. Presumably, the 40w sma slope will remain negative and the FLD suggests that the run-up would not exceed 4000-4050 area. Given the bearish scenario LT, this would be an excellent area to Short, imho.
Best guess: 20wk low was 3/8 followed by low 6/17, with next trough nominally 11/11. 10wk lows 6/17 and 9/2, with next due 11/11 with 20wk low.
Combo may give rally to 12/16-12/23.
Near the 11/11 trough, a trendline with slope of the 13sma may provide the entry signal for the upmove, with stops under the recent low at that time.
The 40wk trough was 6/17 and next trough is due nominally April 2023. The bear move in the
1Q2023 could be spectacular.
The cycle stretched out and and the target date of 10/14 has come and gone. Still waiting for rally to 3900+, followed by sell signal.
IMHO, the target is 2800 or much lower.
$SPX updated target for rally high is 10/14 or 10/17, between 3900-3950. Time will tell...
$SPX updated target for rally high is 10/14 or 10/17, between 3900-3950. Time will tell...
Agree! Cyclic methods can give an target area in price and time, but the action signal is a trendline break.
I continue with same cycles, but have changed emphasis to the market structure starting with 6.5yr cycle and working down. IMHO the very short term dailies have become more erratic, while the weeklies have been more stable. Hence more emphasis on "40week" and harmonics; I find 43week to be a better length than 40. Smaller weeklies are 21.75wks and 10.87weeks. Combining multiple sinewaves will give shifts in the highs, and is the basis for my projection of 10/19 as approximate rally high.
The cycles point to an area of time, but trendlines must be used to define the actual turn.
Not using Fib tools for cycles and timing.
The largest amount of explanatory material can be found from David Hixson, and his company/program Sentient Computer, or Trading or something. Very prominent on Twitter, and has a utube update weekly. Also, a discord server which he invites you to join. Various Twitter people are affiliates of Sentient Trader, notably David F.
One of the people on Sentient discord has posted access to several out of print sources. Find "parisboy" and look at his posting in mid Sept for those links.
We completed 11weeks of the 10-11 week cycle and Friday was day18 of an 18day cycle. We should see series of 9day cycles with the expected high in middle of 2nd cycle from now. Looking at 10/19 area for the high, aka start of down move. Next rally high should be approx 20weeks from then with interim low in between. Then major low follows.
$SPX We completed 11weeks of the 10-11 week cycle and Friday was day18 of an 18day cycle. We should see series of 9day cycles with the expected high in middle of 2nd cycle from now. Looking at 10/19 area for the high, aka start of down move. Next rally high should be approx 20weeks from then with interim low in between. Then major low follows.
Re 3x etfs vs 2x: the problem occurs in an oscillating mkt. After complete cycle from start to equal finish, both will have lost some money and the 3x will have lost considerably more. If you can succeed in participating primarily in the positive direction, the 3x wins. If not,you are in trouble with both.
$SPX (1) has declined for 5 weeks, and is 10weeks from the start of this 10-11week cycle. My obj for this cycle was reached and expect rally for 4-6 weeks to next 10week high.
SPX (2) holding short via SDS, entered 4898, last at 5152. I will liquidate at the opening, planning to short again near end of October.
$SPX (1) has declined for 5 weeks, and is 10weeks from the start of this 10-11week cycle. My obj for this cycle was reached and expect rally for 4-6 weeks to next 10week high.
SPX (2) holding short via SDS, entered 4898, last at 5152. I will liquidate at the opening, planning to short again near end of October.
$SPX $SDS solid break of 3840 triggers obj of 3450 area. However, on so doing, a solid break of 3750 creates obj of 2800. Short via purch of SDS on close at 48.98.
$SPX $SDS solid break of 3840 triggers obj of 3450 area. However, on so doing, a solid break of 3750 creates obj of 2800. Short via purch of SDS on close at 48.98.
$SPX $SSO closed SSO at 4835 for a loss 140pts. The FLD for 72day cycle was crossed, giving obj SPX <3650. Not yet willing to short.
$SPX if mkt rallies to 4120, short it via purchase of SDS at approx 4165, risking 200pts.
$SPX MA200 did not give the same signal as MA216. Slope of MA200 remained negative, while MA216 flipped up for 3-4 days and then reversed. Bear Mkt Rally scenario continues, but may be ending. 36day cycle is due for low Labor Day, and we are entering week6 if 10/21/43 week cycles which will lead to the 6.5yr low.
$SPX MA200 did not give the same signal as MA216. Slope of MA200 remained negative, while MA216 flipped up for 3-4 days and then reversed. Bear Mkt Rally scenario continues, but may be ending. 36day cycle is due for low Labor Day, and we are entering week6 if 10/21/43 week cycles which will lead to the 6.5yr low.
$SPX $SPY the classic Hurst tool is that a reversal in slope of a halfwave MA occurs halfway in the total move of the full wave cycle. The 40week cycle is commonly acknowledged; I use 216 days, and the slope of MA108 flipped at 4250. Obj: new highs???
$SPX $SPY the classic Hurst tool is that a reversal in slope of a halfwave MA occurs halfway in the total move of the full wave cycle. The 40week cycle is commonly acknowledged; I use 216 days, and the slope of MA108 flipped at 4250. Obj: new highs???
I still believe the bear rally scenario and will not be buying anything at this time. Fib retracement point near 4350 may be the end.
Thanks for the many detailed articles which you post/link.
$SDS $SPX stopped out of SDS at 39.75. Will look for undervaluation on initial pullbacks. It is what it is...
$SDS $SPX stopped out of SDS at 39.75. Will look for undervaluation on initial pullbacks. It is what it is...
$SPX $SDS holding 2units SDS avg 42.36. Add 1unit for today on buy stop at 42.57, risking to 41.87.
The CCI for 216day cycle has given sell signal, this is week 10 from last high, and will be breaking 9day channel if buy stop is hit.
$SPX $SDS holding 2units SDS avg 42.36. Add 1unit for today on buy stop at 42.57, risking to 41.87.
The CCI for 216day cycle has given sell signal, this is week 10 from last high, and will be breaking 9day channel if buy stop is hit.
$SPX $SDS holding 2 units SDS avg 42.36. The 10wk high in SPX is elusive and the 10wk channel is only slightly higher. Placing stop on SDS at 39.85 and will live to short another day.
$SPX $SDS holding 2 units SDS avg 42.36. The 10wk high in SPX is elusive and the 10wk channel is only slightly higher. Placing stop on SDS at 39.85 and will live to short another day.
Thanks. I have modified your MACD system to be specific for various wavelengths and would describe it if interested.
$SPX $SDS add to shorts with another SDS 42.52. CCI indicator for 36day cycle has given signal for short, as have shorter cycles. This is 10wks from last high, so peak expected nearterm.
Initiated new short via SDS at 42.20 with stop 41.35. Assuming 10wk high is near and bear trend will resume.
Initiated new short via SDS at 42.20 with stop 41.35. Assuming 10wk high is near and bear trend will resume.
$SPX $SDS liquidated SDS at 43.63. Am flat, looking for upmove for 4-6weeks, then resumption of bear mkt.