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Superpositioning of cycles may be key at this point. Please review prior post.
The cycle set of 72/36/18/9 etc presumably had nested lows on last Thursday. With the slope of the ma200 or ma216 depending on preference being flat to slightly upward, all of the cycles 216 shorter can be assumed to have reset their count to zero at that time. The first point where one cycle is peaking while the next shorter one is bottoming is at day9 with a 9day low vs 18day high, which is Wednesday next week. The combination should peak nominally at day 4.5 and again at day 13.5, with low at day 9. The longer term cycles are assumed to be slowly accelerating, leading to a higher point at day 13.5 than on day 4.5 (which was yesterday).
I expect the market to be sloppy until nominally Wednesday and then rise towards the high nominally day13.5 (the following Tues/Wed). Afterwards. I believe the market to be vulnerable and a major trendline break if occurring, would signal the decline towards the 3.3yr low in mid 2019.
The major high in Jan2018 may be followed by a major high nominally 43weeks later (November), and a major bear market beginning thereafter. It is a risk...
Superpositioning of cycles may be key at this point. This will be covered in the next post, copying a post made elsewhere previously.
The cycle set of 72/36/18/9 etc presumably had nested lows on last Thursday. With the slope of the ma200 or ma216 depending on preference being flat to slightly upward, all of the cycles 216 shorter can be assumed to have reset their count to zero at that time. The first point where one cycle is peaking while the next shorter one is bottoming is at day9 with a 9day low vs 18day high, which is Wednesday next week. The combination should peak nominally at day 4.5 and again at day 13.5, with low at day 9. The longer term cycles are assumed to be slowly accelerating, leading to a higher point at day 13.5 than on day 4.5 (which was yesterday).
I expect the market to be sloppy until nominally Wednesday and then rise towards the high nominally day13.5 (the following Tues/Wed). Afterwards. I believe the market to be vulnerable and a major trendline break if occurring, would signal the decline towards the 3.3yr low in mid 2019.
The major high in Jan2018 may be followed by a major high nominally 43weeks later (November), and a major bear market beginning thereafter. It is a risk...
Superpositioning of cycles may be key at this point. Please review prior post.
The cycle set of 72/36/18/9 etc presumably had nested lows on last Thursday. With the slope of the ma200 or ma216 depending on preference being flat to slightly upward, all of the cycles 216 shorter can be assumed to have reset their count to zero at that time. The first point where one cycle is peaking while the next shorter one is bottoming is at day9 with a 9day low vs 18day high, which is Wednesday next week. The combination should peak nominally at day 4.5 and again at day 13.5, with low at day 9. The longer term cycles are assumed to be slowly accelerating, leading to a higher point at day 13.5 than on day 4.5 (which was yesterday).
I expect the market to be sloppy until nominally Wednesday and then rise towards the high nominally day13.5 (the following Tues/Wed). Afterwards. I believe the market to be vulnerable and a major trendline break if occurring, would signal the decline towards the 3.3yr low in mid 2019.
The major high in Jan2018 may be followed by a major high nominally 43weeks later (November), and a major bear market beginning thereafter. It is a risk...
Oddlot
Egregious or not, buying dips in a grossly oversold mkt that is not in a downtrend has to be reasonable. It may not be profitable, fuel to stops or for other reasons, but it is what er are supposed to do. The MA216 is flat to uptrending, the last low was a nominal 72day low and did not break the prior 72day low, so being long is proper. The weakness in our analyses is the "short term" nature--the passage of a minor amount of time can change the expectation, and then the prior expectation is fulfilled.
OT: Pokersam made an appearance on my board and the SPY tech board after a long absence. Does good work re LT E-Waves. This is not an endorsement of an opinion, but a heads up that he is back.
Oddlot
OT: Pokersam made an appearance on my board and the SPY tech board after a long absence. Does good work re LT E-Waves. This is not an endorsement of an opinion, but a heads up that he is back.
Oddlot
It is Great to hear from you after a long absence. Hopefully you will be back on a regular basis. Thanks for your input.
Oddlot
SSO bot (2) at 114.15 with stop 112.85
Oddlot
SSO bot (2) at 114.15 with stop 112.85
Oddlot
SSO bot (2) at 114.15 with stop 112.85
Oddlot
Out of latest SSO at 113.70 for small quick loss.
SSO added at 114.75, with stop 113.70.
Oddlot
SSO added at 114.75, with stop 113.70.
Oddlot
SSO added at 114.75, with stop 113.70.
Oddlot
Thank you for asking. FLD "Forward Line of Demarcation" is a term from the Hurst people that denotes the price at which the MA of the designated length will change direction, ie slope will change from negative to positive or vice versa.
Why is that relevant? If prices are following a sine wave pattern with wavelength L, a moving average of length L remains unchanged at value zero. A moving avg of length L/2 will lag the movement, and change direction at the zero point, or halfway from bottom to top. That allows a projection of where the top is by knowing the low and the halfway point. When current price exceeds the price L/2 in the past, then the slope becomes positive. If the price from L/2 in the past is plotted at current time, the resulting line is known as the FLD(L/2).
Stockcharts will plot prices or ma's displaced either forward or backward in time. Parameter of (1,20) means data point is moved forward 20 time periods. (1,-20) moves it backwards. (9,20) takes the ma9 current value and moves it forward 20 periods.
Let me know if you have further questions.
Oddlot
SPX obj 2835-2850 for 9day cycle.
After the early dip, the FLD(4.5) using 10min data was crossed at 2791. Using a short term CMA plus dpo to calc a synthetic low, I get 45-57 pts between the crossing and the "low" and thus the swing up to 2835-2850.
This estimate is for the 9day cycle and I expect the oversold condition to have moderated, but to not yet be "overbought" at that time.
Oddlot
SPX obj 2835-2850 for 9day cycle.
After the early dip, the FLD(4.5) using 10min data was crossed at 2791. Using a short term CMA plus dpo to calc a synthetic low, I get 45-57 pts between the crossing and the "low" and thus the swing up to 2835-2850.
This estimate is for the 9day cycle and I expect the oversold condition to have moderated, but to not yet be "overbought" at that time.
Oddlot
SPX obj 2835-2850 for 9day cycle.
After the early dip, the FLD(4.5) using 10min data was crossed at 2791. Using a short term CMA plus dpo to calc a synthetic low, I get 45-57 pts between the crossing and the "low" and thus the swing up to 2835-2850.
This estimate is for the 9day cycle and I expect the oversold condition to have moderated, but to not yet be "overbought" at that time.
Oddlot
SPX premarket looks lower this AM, and the FLD falls so rapidly today that a rebound late today may only generate a target less than yesterday's high. So we ignore that and focus on support which begins 2760-2770. If it holds and then the rally continues, the swing obj becomes 2850 or higher, matching prior comments re pnf objs.
Oddlot
SPX the rally out of the 72day low continues, and the first cyclic point will be the high of the 18day cycle. It could happen at 4.5days either side of the nominal peak 9days from the low. Wednesday is day 4, so Thursday would be a concern, and if a mild pullback is followed by new rally high s, then the high would be expected Wednesday 10/31.
FLD(4.5) for the 9day cycle may be crossed tomorrow at 2815, giving objective of 2920. Seems a little extreme, but the decline was extreme so take it with lots of salt.
The pnf bases project to 2850-2860 for 10-30min charts, and 60min projects to 2900.
I have commented previously on possibility of a "symmetrical" rally with time separation between the ultimate high and the prior high early 2018 of 43weeks. If it does this, the high would be approximately Thanksgiving and 6weeks from the recent low. That would be sufficient time for sentiment and positions to revert to the aggressive optimism of the recent past.
The last time the mkt challenged the FLD108 level, I kept expecting the break and did not get long. This time, in a similar situation, I will play it loose with protective stops until the mkt is overbought AND gives short-term trend reversals there after.
Until the FLD108 is breached, I have no justification for abandoning the legitimate cyclical objectives of 3100 and higher. So call me a very reluctant bull, kicking and screaming as it goes higher. Seems to be a familiar position....
Oddlot
SPX the rally out of the 72day low continues, and the first cyclic point will be the high of the 18day cycle. It could happen at 4.5days either side of the nominal peak 9days from the low. Wednesday is day 4, so Thursday would be a concern, and if a mild pullback is followed by new rally high s, then the high would be expected Wednesday 10/31.
FLD(4.5) for the 9day cycle may be crossed tomorrow at 2815, giving objective of 2920. Seems a little extreme, but the decline was extreme so take it with lots of salt.
The pnf bases project to 2850-2860 for 10-30min charts, and 60min projects to 2900.
I have commented previously on possibility of a "symmetrical" rally with time separation between the ultimate high and the prior high early 2018 of 43weeks. If it does this, the high would be approximately Thanksgiving and 6weeks from the recent low. That would be sufficient time for sentiment and positions to revert to the aggressive optimism of the recent past.
The last time the mkt challenged the FLD108 level, I kept expecting the break and did not get long. This time, in a similar situation, I will play it loose with protective stops until the mkt is overbought AND gives short-term trend reversals there after.
Until the FLD108 is breached, I have no justification for abandoning the legitimate cyclical objectives of 3100 and higher. So call me a very reluctant bull, kicking and screaming as it goes higher. Seems to be a familiar position....
Oddlot
SPX the rally out of the 72day low continues, and the first cyclic point will be the high of the 18day cycle. It could happen at 4.5days either side of the nominal peak 9days from the low. Wednesday is day 4, so Thursday would be a concern, and if a mild pullback is followed by new rally high s, then the high would be expected Wednesday 10/31.
FLD(4.5) for the 9day cycle may be crossed tomorrow at 2815, giving objective of 2920. Seems a little extreme, but the decline was extreme so take it with lots of salt.
The pnf bases project to 2850-2860 for 10-30min charts, and 60min projects to 2900.
I have commented previously on possibility of a "symmetrical" rally with time separation between the ultimate high and the prior high early 2018 of 43weeks. If it does this, the high would be approximately Thanksgiving and 6weeks from the recent low. That would be sufficient time for sentiment and positions to revert to the aggressive optimism of the recent past.
The last time the mkt challenged the FLD108 level, I kept expecting the break and did not get long. This time, in a similar situation, I will play it loose with protective stops until the mkt is overbought AND gives short-term trend reversals there after.
Until the FLD108 is breached, I have no justification for abandoning the legitimate cyclical objectives of 3100 and higher. So call me a very reluctant bull, kicking and screaming as it goes higher. Seems to be a familiar position....
Oddlot
True, but IMHO unlikely. On the daily SPY, plot centered ma's for 37,19, and 9 days and extrapolate to an intersection. That is halfway down from 291-292, and projects a solid low already seen. But, you may be right, since you are the Deva...
Oddlot
SPX if the slope of MA108 turns down, the obj becomes approx 2500. If not, the trend will
continue and the cycle will climb towards a peak. The point at which the slope changes is 2700-2720 depending on the day near term, and the longer that SPX consolidates in this area, the larger the upmove would be when it comes. Currently a move to 2950 can be projected from the 60min pnf base once it starts up.
Holding long SPY, SSO, and GLD, and some short sector ETFs.
Oddlot
SPX if the slope of MA108 turns down, the obj becomes approx 2500. If not, the trend will
continue and the cycle will climb towards a peak. The point at which the slope changes is 2700-2720 depending on the day near term, and the longer that SPX consolidates in this area, the larger the upmove would be when it comes. Currently a move to 2950 can be projected from the 60min pnf base once it starts up.
Holding long SPY, SSO, and GLD, and some short sector ETFs.
Oddlot
SPX if the slope of MA108 turns down, the obj becomes approx 2500. If not, the trend will
continue and the cycle will climb towards a peak. The point at which the slope changes is 2700-2720 depending on the day near term, and the longer that SPX consolidates in this area, the larger the upmove would be when it comes. Currently a move to 2950 can be projected from the 60min pnf base once it starts up.
Holding long SPY, SSO, and GLD, and some short sector ETFs.
Oddlot
SPX the decline was on schedule for the 72day cyclic low. The prior low was at end of June with low close of 2699. That low has not yet been broken and the "trend" at worst is flat until it is broken.
The decline broke the MA200 etc and CCI65 (for 216day cycle) is grossly oversold, so the relevant cycle/stats may come from the 216day/43week cycle.
The average amplitude for the 216day cycle is 113pts using closes, with a std dev of 23. So 15% chance of exceeding 23, and total amplitude exceeding 136. So, 2850 is a credible upper bound on the rally, which matches a Fib retracement of 61.8%. If the trend resumes, then the rally could extend higher.
My natural inclination is to be a bear, but a rally from here is likely. What further increases in bond rates will do is assumed to be negative, and such increases are deemed likely. Thus it would seem that we are building a top from which the 3.3yr cycle can decline into mid 2019.
Holding short XLB, SMH, VEU. Holding long SPY, SSO, GLD. Will look to add shorts on the rally.
Oddlot
SPX the decline was on schedule for the 72day cyclic low. The prior low was at end of June with low close of 2699. That low has not yet been broken and the "trend" at worst is flat until it is broken.
The decline broke the MA200 etc and CCI65 (for 216day cycle) is grossly oversold, so the relevant cycle/stats may come from the 216day/43week cycle.
The average amplitude for the 216day cycle is 113pts using closes, with a std dev of 23. So 15% chance of exceeding 23, and total amplitude exceeding 136. So, 2850 is a credible upper bound on the rally, which matches a Fib retracement of 61.8%. If the trend resumes, then the rally could extend higher.
My natural inclination is to be a bear, but a rally from here is likely. What further increases in bond rates will do is assumed to be negative, and such increases are deemed likely. Thus it would seem that we are building a top from which the 3.3yr cycle can decline into mid 2019.
Holding short XLB, SMH, VEU. Holding long SPY, SSO, GLD. Will look to add shorts on the rally.
Oddlot
SPX the decline was on schedule for the 72day cyclic low. The prior low was at end of June with low close of 2699. That low has not yet been broken and the "trend" at worst is flat until it is broken.
The decline broke the MA200 etc and CCI65 (for 216day cycle) is grossly oversold, so the relevant cycle/stats may come from the 216day/43week cycle.
The average amplitude for the 216day cycle is 113pts using closes, with a std dev of 23. So 15% chance of exceeding 23, and total amplitude exceeding 136. So, 2850 is a credible upper bound on the rally, which matches a Fib retracement of 61.8%. If the trend resumes, then the rally could extend higher.
My natural inclination is to be a bear, but a rally from here is likely. What further increases in bond rates will do is assumed to be negative, and such increases are deemed likely. Thus it would seem that we are building a top from which the 3.3yr cycle can decline into mid 2019.
Holding short XLB, SMH, VEU. Holding long SPY, SSO, GLD. Will look to add shorts on the rally.
Oddlot
SSO in for a penny, in for a pound.
Long SSO 112.60, stop 109.68.
Also holding long SPY 276.80
Oddlot
SSO in for a penny, in for a pound.
Long SSO 112.60, stop 109.68.
Also holding long SPY 276.80
Oddlot
SSO in for a penny, in for a pound.
Long SSO 112.60, stop 109.68.
Also holding long SPY 276.80
Oddlot
SPY long at 276.80
Update position/rec:
XLE from 75.90. Stopped out 78.33. Now flat
SMH short from 106.40, stop 113.33, oh 58
VEU short from 52.57, stop at 54.33, obj 45
XLB short (2) from 59.44, stop 61.33, obj 40
GLD short from 113.12, stopped out 115.33 and reversed long at 115.33.
SPY go long on stop at 276.72.
Oddlot
SPY lower buy stop to 276.72. The oversold conditions will probably lead to a rally toward 2860SPX.
Oddlot
SPY lower buy stop to 276.72. The grossly oversold conditions will probably lead to a rally toward 2860 SPX.
Oddlot
SPY lower buy stop to 276.72.
Oddlot
FLD108 (for the 216day cycle) is approx 2700. Given the oversold condition and the support often seen at FLD points, I expect the lows today to hold. Breaking the FLD would imply target of approx 2460, which may lead to other much lower targets.
Oddlot
FLD108 (for the 216day cycle) is approx 2700. Given the oversold condition and the support often seen at FLD points, I expect the lows today to hold. Breaking the FLD would imply target of approx 2460, which may lead to other much lower targets.
Oddlot
FLD108 (for the 216day cycle) is approx 2700. Given the oversold condition and the support often seen at FLD points, I expect the lows today to hold. Breaking the FLD would imply target of approx 2460, which may lead to other much lower targets.
Oddlot