SPX the decline was on schedule for the 72day cyclic low. The prior low was at end of June with low close of 2699. That low has not yet been broken and the "trend" at worst is flat until it is broken.
The decline broke the MA200 etc and CCI65 (for 216day cycle) is grossly oversold, so the relevant cycle/stats may come from the 216day/43week cycle.
The average amplitude for the 216day cycle is 113pts using closes, with a std dev of 23. So 15% chance of exceeding 23, and total amplitude exceeding 136. So, 2850 is a credible upper bound on the rally, which matches a Fib retracement of 61.8%. If the trend resumes, then the rally could extend higher.
My natural inclination is to be a bear, but a rally from here is likely. What further increases in bond rates will do is assumed to be negative, and such increases are deemed likely. Thus it would seem that we are building a top from which the 3.3yr cycle can decline into mid 2019.
Holding short XLB, SMH, VEU. Holding long SPY, SSO, GLD. Will look to add shorts on the rally.
Oddlot
Stay on the right side of the cycle!
