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Potential high Dec6, from superpositioning of cycles. Basic theory after this explanation: the bottom occurred on October 29, and the cycle set of 72 36, 18, 9 etc is assumed to have reset at that point. A likely high would occur approx 27 mkt days after the low, or Dec6. I have previously commented on Dec7 just from the 36day cycle. Assuming the downtrend from the 216day cycle, the first peak of the 36day would probably be the rally high.
Theory follows:
Assume you have two sine waves, one of period L and the other with period L/2, and they begin at the same low point. At the time L/2, the longer cycle is at its theoretical high and the shorter cycle is at its low. The combination of the two is just the addition of the two waves. If the amplitudes are the same, the combination will peak at two points, L/4 on either side of the peak of the longer individual cycle.
When analyzing the harmonic set of equity cycles, you have a repetitive occurrence of one peaking while the next shorter cycle is bottoming, and one must shift the expected high in an iterative fashion. Thankfully, as the wavelength shortens, the amplitude shrinks and 3 or four cycles is as much confusion as you need endure.
An example would be the current market. All cycles started together at the 6th week of 2016, and with a primary wavelength of 6.6yrs, the high of main cycle would be at 3.3yrs, or late May 2019. The 3.3yr cycle low should also be at that point. The combination should result in a high at 1.65yrs from the beginning or approx Nov2017, or 1.65 yrs after May 2019.
This high point is also a low for the L/4 cycle, meaning the high could be 10 months on either side of Nov2017. It was obviously Not Feb2017, but might be Aug2018.
And this continues ad nauseam but the point is that the acceptable theoretical points for the high are Now or shortly to come, or are in mid 2020. As this is the longest running bull market in history, and the most overvalued, the odds favor Now instead of 2020.
Oddlot
For the insomniacs, where is the book available?
Moon cycles
Some believe, some don't. They seem to suggest things but are not conclusive. Lows (+/- few days) are associated with full moons, and highs with new moons. Full moon was Thanksgiving, and next new moon will be Dec 7. So there may be an upward bias for a week...
Oddlot
Add my name to this list. We make three, and there are many more.
But I had Thanksgiving with my son and granddaughters. The son is overextended from providing for his daughters in the manner in which he thinks he should, or which Madison Avenue has convinced him is his obligation. And my Summa cum Laude granddaughter contributes to her company 401k with no knowledge of her options, or what she has chosen.
I mention this only because I fear this is typical, and after the steamroller rolls over them, it will be What happened????
Re 40week low
Prior low occurred week of 4/1, or week 14 of 2018. 40weeks later is 54-52 = week 2 of 2019.
If cycle is 43weeks, my preference, then 1st week of Feb.
Tax selling thru Dec will end, and IRA/pension contributions start Jan1, so bottom may occur Jan2 or anytime soon thereafter.
My target of week22 for the 3.3yr cycle low may be deferred by 20-22 weeks in order to synch with the low in Jan.
Hope you are well
Oddlot
SPX SPY SDS: cxl orders to add shorts near 2760. FLD18 was crossed, obj is ambiguous, and simple bar chart look suggests rally to 2850-2900. Holding shorts, will add on failure but not as limit order.
Oddlot
SPX LT analysis:
Obj from FLD for 43week and 86week cycles agree at approx 2500-2525.
Swing obj, assuming 2525 is filled, is formed from 2625/2925 or 300pt move as order of magnitude. Typically 80% of move is safer projection. From 2625, this becomes 2385 area.
Pnf obj daily atr basis is approx 2425, in general agreement
The FLD 86week, for 3.3yr cycle is 2360 now, and 2380 at year end.
With the calendar expectation of lows week19-22 of 2019, a reasonable assumption is that the move to 2425-2450 occurs and then the mkt bounces. Then another downswing occurs, going below the FLD level for 3.3yr obj of 500pts below FLD crossing for nominal target of 1800-1900 in mid 2019.
That is a lot of guesswork, and assumptions, but it's the best I can do. Implementation requires only being short on rallies, with stops over highs. If you play close to the best, you will be stopped out of your position and not profit if the move occurs as expected.
Oddlot
SPX LT analysis:
Obj from FLD for 43week and 86week cycles agree at approx 2500-2525.
Swing obj, assuming 2525 is filled, is formed from 2625/2925 or 300pt move as order of magnitude. Typically 80% of move is safer projection. From 2625, this becomes 2385 area.
Pnf obj daily atr basis is approx 2425, in general agreement
The FLD 86week, for 3.3yr cycle is 2360 now, and 2380 at year end.
With the calendar expectation of lows week19-22 of 2019, a reasonable assumption is that the move to 2425-2450 occurs and then the mkt bounces. Then another downswing occurs, going below the FLD level for 3.3yr obj of 500pts below FLD crossing for nominal target of 1800-1900 in mid 2019.
That is a lot of guesswork, and assumptions, but it's the best I can do. Implementation requires only being short on rallies, with stops over highs. If you play close to the best, you will be stopped out of your position and not profit if the move occurs as expected.
Oddlot
SPX LT analysis:
Obj from FLD for 43week and 86week cycles agree at approx 2500-2525.
Swing obj, assuming 2525 is filled, is formed from 2625/2925 or 300pt move as order of magnitude. Typically 80% of move is safer projection. From 2625, this becomes 2385 area.
Pnf obj daily atr basis is approx 2425, in general agreement
The FLD 86week, for 3.3yr cycle is 2360 now, and 2380 at year end.
With the calendar expectation of lows week19-22 of 2019, a reasonable assumption is that the move to 2425-2450 occurs and then the mkt bounces. Then another downswing occurs, going below the FLD level for 3.3yr obj of 500pts below FLD crossing for nominal target of 1800-1900 in mid 2019.
That is a lot of guesswork, and assumptions, but it's the best I can do. Implementation requires only being short on rallies, with stops over highs. If you play close to the best, you will be stopped out of your position and not profit if the move occurs as expected.
Oddlot
True, but shorter cycles suggest highs early next week. And trendlines suggest highs 2760 or slightly higher.
Agree. 9day cycle due for high Mon-Tues.
Oddlot
In a situation of great surplus/low demand, the back month is priced on storage, interest, and other costs plus the front month. As demand increases, the front month gains relative to the back.
So, the distant months always assume a semi-normal situation. As those months become closer to the present, the assumed economic situation becomes closer to the current reality.
If cash corn is 3.00 and cost of carry is 4% , then each month adds a penny to the price if nobody wants the corn now. But as demand increases for spot, the cash price (front month) gains in price more than the back months and the spread narrows. In a shortage, the front month will be substantially higher than the back months.
So, my comment suggested buying a spread in distant months (say, long 12 months out and short 18months out). Normal would be near full carry, even if current situation is tight. But as time passes, pricing would become closer to the shortage situation and the front of the spread would gain more rapidly than the more distant month. The spread might go from 20cents to even, or in a shortage the front may be at a premium to the back months. Doesn't sound like much, until you consider that the margin requirement for spreads is very low, and the 20cent move could be 100% or more of the margin requirement.
Talk to a futures broker that actually knows about commodities, not just index futures or currencies.
Oddlot
OT: if crop failures, then the spreads between months will invert in grains/soybeans. Go out as far as you can, get as big a carry as you can, and hold on.
Oddlot
OT mini ice age for 10yrs, known as Maunder Minimum:
Scientists say Earth’s atmosphere is about to get hit by some record cold – but it’s not because of anything caused by humans. It’s because of a lack of sunspots which means a major decrease in ultraviolet waves coming in our direction.
Dr. Tony Philipps of SpaceWeatherArchive.com says there have been practically no sunspots in 2018, and that’s causing earth’s upper atmosphere to cool down and even shrink.
Another scientist that is sounding the alarm is Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. According to him, NASA’s Thermosphere Climate Index is now showing a reading that is “10 times smaller than we see during more active phases of the solar cycle”…
To help track the latest developments, Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center and his colleagues recently introduced the “Thermosphere Climate Index.”
The Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) tells how much heat nitric oxide (NO) molecules are dumping into space. During Solar Maximum, TCI is high (meaning “Hot”); during Solar Minimum, it is low (meaning “Cold”).
“Right now, it is very low indeed … 10 times smaller than we see during more active phases of the solar cycle,” says Mlynczak.
10 times smaller?
That doesn’t sound good.
And according to Mlynczak, this decrease in solar activity could result in “a Space Age record for cold”…
“We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”
So I hope that you are ready for a very chilly winter.
Across the Atlantic, another expert that is sounding the alarm is Piers Corbyn. He believes that the lack of solar activity that we are witnessing could rapidly produce another “mini ice age”…
Solar activity and jet stream forecasts suggest a pattern of cold similar to the historic Mini Ice Age which occurred during the mid-17th century.
The period otherwise known as the Little Ice Age gripped Europe and North America and saw Britons hold frost fairs on the frozen River Thames.
“What we are looking at is a pattern of circulation similar to that which was observed during the mini ice-age,” Mr Corbyn said.
What he is referring to is a period of substantial global cooling that occurred during “the Maunder Minimum”. If you are not familiar with “the Maunder Minimum”, the following is what Wikipedia has to say about it…
The Maunder Minimum, also known as the “prolonged sunspot minimum”, is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare, as was then noted by solar observers.
During that time, farming became much more difficult and horrific famines erupted all over the globe.
If our planet is now entering a similar period, we are going to be in very deep trouble very rapidly. Today, we barely produce enough food to feed the entire globe, and so a major worldwide climate shift could potentially produce unprecedented chaos on a global scale.
So let us hope that solar activity returns to normal soon, because if it doesn’t, the unthinkable is going to begin to happen.
SDS SPY open orders to buy SDS 35.65, risking 100pts; sell short SPY 276.40, stop at 282.65.
Oddlot
SDS SPY open orders to buy SDS 35.65, risking 100pts; sell short SPY 276.40, stop at 282.65.
Oddlot
SDS SPY open orders to buy SDS 35.65, risking 100pts; sell short SPY 276.40, stop at 282.65.
Oddlot
Position Update:
GLD long at 115.33 and 113.80. Stop 111.43. Last at 114.64.
XLB short 2 at 59.44. Stop 61.33. Last at 53.95
SMH short at 106.44 and 92.80. Stop at 98.57. Last at 92.97
VEU short at 52.57 and 47.85. Stop at 53.07. Last at 48.05.
SPY short at 271.80, last at 270.20.
SDS long at 37.20. Stop 32
37. Last 37.95.
Oddlot
Copper sitting on weekly FLD 86, and breaking 2.66 would send it to 2.00. Recession, or worse, anyone?
Oddlot
$Copper sitting on weekly FLD 86, and breaking 2.66 would send it to 2.00. Recession, or worse, anyone?
Oddlot
Agree generally on the whole stinking mess, and that eventually the fiats will be replaced. Some people, not gold "bugs", think the dollar needs to go back on the gold standard with the quantity in Ft Knox, whatever it really is, being convertible at a high enough rate that all the "debt" is covered. The CME pres thought $7000 or so some time ago. So, 30% allocation to gold for "insurance", but what to do about risk of confiscation?? The risk is real, capital controls exist, and we are close to being a banana republic in all but name.
Sorry for the rant.
Oddlot
True. And price trends will tell the tale. But conceptually, higher prices due to tariffs, or lower margins if producers/retailers absorb costs, and credit card debt at maxed-out levels may make the holidays an economic disappointment, and frustrate the "normal" scenario.
Thanks for the comment, all are welcomed.
Oddlot
Use it in good health.
I hope to add to shorts on good rally.
GLD rebound as scheduled on 30day cycle. Obj currently 120.
Holding longs at 115.33 and 113.80. Last at 114.60.
Oddlot
Calendar Lows:
18day on Thanksgiving, so 11/21 or 11/23...
36day on 12/19
72day nominal Valentine's
Calendar Lows:
18day on Thanksgiving, so 11/21 or 11/23...
36day on 12/19
72day nominal Valentine's
Calendar Lows:
18day on Thanksgiving, so 11/21 or 11/23...
36day on 12/19
72day nominal Valentine's
SPX medium term obj of 2550 area, based on sustained crossing of 3day avg of FLD216 (equivalent to change of slope on 216day/43week MA). This change of slope from positive to negative occurs when price has moved 50% of total pending move on cycle twice the length of FLD, i.e. 432day/86week. Assuming last low was in Aug2017, the next expected low is week 19 of 2019, or May 2019.
A nesting of cyclic lows is expected nominally for 22week of 2019, including the 3.3yr/172week. Possibilities exist, without tech evidence yet, of a low below 2000 at that time.
Oddlot
SPX medium term obj of 2550 area, based on sustained crossing of 3day avg of FLD216 (equivalent to change of slope on 216day/43week MA). This change of slope from positive to negative occurs when price has moved 50% of total pending move on cycle twice the length of FLD, i.e. 432day/86week. Assuming last low was in Aug2017, the next expected low is week 19 of 2019, or May 2019.
A nesting of cyclic lows is expected nominally for 22week of 2019, including the 3.3yr/172week. Possibilities exist, without tech evidence yet, of a low below 2000 at that time.
Oddlot
SPX medium term obj of 2550 area, based on sustained crossing of 3day avg of FLD216 (equivalent to change of slope on 216day/43week MA). This change of slope from positive to negative occurs when price has moved 50% of total pending move on cycle twice the length of FLD, i.e. 432day/86week. Assuming last low was in Aug2017, the next expected low is week 19 of 2019, or May 2019.
A nesting of cyclic lows is expected nominally for 22week of 2019, including the 3.3yr/172week. Possibilities exist, without tech evidence yet, of a low below 2000 at that time.
Oddlot
SPX short term obj 2635, based on sustained cross of 3day avg of FLD9 at 2725
SPX the 3day avg of FLD9 is 2711. Sustained penetration of 2711 will create obj of approx 2610 for bottom of 18day cycle. Last at 2721.
Yesterday added to shorts in SMH and VEU, and initiated long in SDS. Added to long in GLD
Today initiated short SPY at 271.80. Looks better now than earlier.
Oddlot
Today
Oddlot
SPX the 3day avg of FLD9 is 2711. Sustained penetration of 2711 will create obj of approx 2610 for bottom of 18day cycle. Last at 2721
Oddlot
SPX the 3day avg of FLD9 is 2711. Sustained penetration of 2711 will create obj of approx 2610 for bottom of 18day cycle. Last at 2721
Oddlot
IMHO, the high near 2814 is the reference, and the downtrend is approx 4pts per day. Monday the boundary would be approx 2782, with sell orders going 10pts or so under that. My chicken bones still call for 11/20-11/22 as sale date, but fear of missing the move has me in positions ahead of that.
Watch CCI for 36 and 72day cycles (parameters vary with data selection 10min/30min etc) as aid for timing entry on failure.
Good luck
Oddlot
SPY initiated short on stop at 271.80.
Oddlot
Thank you for your kind words. They are few and far between. Hug your boy for me.
Oddlot
SPX pnf obj supporting the bear case: daily using atr(200) for box, has box of 26, and base width of six gives move of 475 from 2748, or obj to 2275 area.
Anything under 2375 leads to 1900 or less. This is going to be nasty. Own nothing but shorts for next 6 months, at least. The PermaBears are going to party...
Oddlot
SPX pnf obj supporting the bear case: daily using atr(200) for box, has box of 26, and base width of six gives move of 475 from 2748, or obj to 2275 area.
Anything under 2375 leads to 1900 or less. This is going to be nasty. Own nothing but shorts for next 6 months, at least. The PermaBears are going to party...
Oddlot
SPX pnf obj supporting the bear case: daily using atr(200) for box, has box of 26, and base width of six gives move of 475 from 2748, or obj to 2275 area.
Anything under 2375 leads to 1900 or less. This is going to be nasty. Own nothing but shorts for next 6 months, at least. The PermaBears are going to party...
Oddlot