My common sense is tingling.
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Yeah, looks that way. Always take profit when you're up in these things.
Nailed it! Out at .004 LOL!
This is the one to be in for the next few weeks.
AGAIN CAPITAL:
John Kilduff, managing partner: “OPEC+ seems to disappoint the market more often than not. ... They needed to move mountains here and they maybe moved a hill.”
VONTOBEL ASSET MANAGEMENT
Michel Salden, head of commodities: “Today’s ‘deal’ did not bring much clarity so far and looks more like an invitation to the G20 energy ministers to agree on a 5 mbpd cut tomorrow which would bring the overall cut in oil output to 15 mbpd.”
UNITED ICAP:
Scott Shelton, energy specialist: “While OPEC is cutting as expected, there is simply too much crude in the physical space for sale, with too few pipelines to move it and too few buyers to take it. The most expensive priced oil in the U.S. is Cushing WTI for May and that is likely to lead us to lower prices regardless of what OPEC does.”
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS:
Michael Tran, managing director of energy strategy: “The market’s muted price reaction is a sobering indicator of the headwinds that remain, namely demand destruction. An acute near-term surge in crude prices would cripple refining economics and result in further run cuts.”
WELLS FARGO:
Roger Read, senior energy analyst: “Until the extreme social distancing economic shutdown measures are significantly relaxed across North America, Europe and parts of Asia, OPEC+ supply cuts are simply playing catch-up at best.”
BAIRD
Ethan Bellamy, senior analyst: “10 million barrels per day is insufficient to balance the market. ... OPEC’s only real choice to bring the U.S. and other higher-cost producers along is to allow price to ration supply. With half a trillion in reserves, we think the Russians can outlast U.S. producers in a fight for market share.”
RYSTAD ENERGY
Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets: “A 10 million-bpd deal is far lower than what the market needs at the moment. And even that seems to be of a fragile nature, as OPEC+ producers appear to struggle to agree, dragging negotiations longer than expected.”
GOLDMAN SACHS
“Our updated 2020 global oil balance suggests that a 10million barrels per day (bpd) headline cut (for an effective 6.5million bpd cut in production) would not be sufficient, stillrequiring an additional 4 million bpd of necessary price inducedshut-ins.”
MIZUHO
Bob Yawger, director of energy futures: “It will only slow filling of storage. It’s not going to save the day, but it’s better than nothing.”
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol,said a production cut of as much as 10 million bpd would stillresult in a 15 million-bpd buildup of crude in the secondquarter.
BCS GLOBAL MARKETS
Kirill Tachennikov, director and senior oil analyst: “It is not technically possible to achieve these numbers in less than a month, and it is not enough to offset current oversupply that is exceeding 20 million bpd as it stands. As a result, the challenges of oil storage gradually filling up is still a very real issue.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-opec-factbox-instantview-idUSKCN21R2ZT?taid=5e8f70dd6091910001d49453&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:%20Trending%20Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter&fbclid=IwAR0ADpHFgvGrew-2kGqZMI0TKTOy3v_qtzGzE7mG4oRf9JUmVp_LEy68Fq8
Not even close to deep enough.
AGAIN CAPITAL:
John Kilduff, managing partner: “OPEC+ seems to disappoint the market more often than not. ... They needed to move mountains here and they maybe moved a hill.”
VONTOBEL ASSET MANAGEMENT
Michel Salden, head of commodities: “Today’s ‘deal’ did not bring much clarity so far and looks more like an invitation to the G20 energy ministers to agree on a 5 mbpd cut tomorrow which would bring the overall cut in oil output to 15 mbpd.”
UNITED ICAP:
Scott Shelton, energy specialist: “While OPEC is cutting as expected, there is simply too much crude in the physical space for sale, with too few pipelines to move it and too few buyers to take it. The most expensive priced oil in the U.S. is Cushing WTI for May and that is likely to lead us to lower prices regardless of what OPEC does.”
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS:
Michael Tran, managing director of energy strategy: “The market’s muted price reaction is a sobering indicator of the headwinds that remain, namely demand destruction. An acute near-term surge in crude prices would cripple refining economics and result in further run cuts.”
WELLS FARGO:
Roger Read, senior energy analyst: “Until the extreme social distancing economic shutdown measures are significantly relaxed across North America, Europe and parts of Asia, OPEC+ supply cuts are simply playing catch-up at best.”
BAIRD
Ethan Bellamy, senior analyst: “10 million barrels per day is insufficient to balance the market. ... OPEC’s only real choice to bring the U.S. and other higher-cost producers along is to allow price to ration supply. With half a trillion in reserves, we think the Russians can outlast U.S. producers in a fight for market share.”
RYSTAD ENERGY
Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets: “A 10 million-bpd deal is far lower than what the market needs at the moment. And even that seems to be of a fragile nature, as OPEC+ producers appear to struggle to agree, dragging negotiations longer than expected.”
GOLDMAN SACHS
“Our updated 2020 global oil balance suggests that a 10million barrels per day (bpd) headline cut (for an effective 6.5million bpd cut in production) would not be sufficient, stillrequiring an additional 4 million bpd of necessary price inducedshut-ins.”
MIZUHO
Bob Yawger, director of energy futures: “It will only slow filling of storage. It’s not going to save the day, but it’s better than nothing.”
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol,said a production cut of as much as 10 million bpd would stillresult in a 15 million-bpd buildup of crude in the secondquarter.
BCS GLOBAL MARKETS
Kirill Tachennikov, director and senior oil analyst: “It is not technically possible to achieve these numbers in less than a month, and it is not enough to offset current oversupply that is exceeding 20 million bpd as it stands. As a result, the challenges of oil storage gradually filling up is still a very real issue.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-opec-factbox-instantview-idUSKCN21R2ZT?taid=5e8f70dd6091910001d49453&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:%20Trending%20Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter&fbclid=IwAR0ADpHFgvGrew-2kGqZMI0TKTOy3v_qtzGzE7mG4oRf9JUmVp_LEy68Fq8
You bought too soon.
You should have waited for it to get "back down into the original gap before the breakaway."
It sure as shit does. Good thing I don't want kids.
I just bought a few more.
Too much. Broke my own rules about averaging down and not saving dry powder for later.
Oh, well. Fortes Fortuna Juvat!
Oof! Missed the bottom by well over a dollar. Felt that in my nuts.
OPEC Meeting Is Delayed as Saudi and Russian Tensions Flare:
April 4, 2020
Updated 11:10 a.m. ET
A meeting planned for Monday between officials of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other oil producers, which had buoyed hopes for a deal to end the turmoil in energy markets, has been put off, according to two OPEC delegates.
The news comes as lingering tensions have surfaced once again between Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, and Russia over who is to blame for the recent collapse in oil prices. On Friday, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin partly blamed Saudi Arabia for the price drop. The Saudis responded with angry statements from their ministers of foreign affairs and energy blaming Russia.
News of the meeting’s delay may roil the markets when trading resumes on Monday. The meeting, which was never officially announced but was widely reported on Friday, added to hopes that OPEC and Russia would agree on production trims.
On Thursday, President Trump said he believed that Russia and the Saudis were near a deal to cut production, prompting a surge of nearly 40 percent in oil prices, to about $34 a barrel for Brent crude, the international benchmark.
The OPEC delegates indicated that further talks would be required before moving ahead with a meeting, which could be rescheduled for later in the week. Saudi Arabia had called for the meeting last Thursday, responding to pressure from President Trump.
In early March, Russia declined to go along with a Saudi-led OPEC proposal to further trim production to deal with the plummeting demand for oil because of the coronavirus epidemic, leading the Saudis to walk away from a three-year agreement with Moscow on production trims. Recently, the Saudis have been increasing production and offering steep discounts to their customers.
On Friday, Mr. Putin said that these Saudi actions were one “reason behind the collapse of prices.” The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan al Saud, responded in a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency that Mr. Putin’s comments were “fully devoid of truth” and that “Russia was the one that refused the agreement.”
Mr. Putin did indicate that he was willing to have Russia participate in the now-delayed meeting.
The Saudis want Russia and other producers to absorb some of the burden of new production trims. They are also hopeful that American oil producers will somehow share in output reductions.
Analysts estimate that because of the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, demand for oil is likely to fall by as much as 25 million barrels a day, or about a quarter of consumption in normal times, meaning that if oil producers don’t reach agreement on output curbs, involuntary shutdowns are likely to occur as refineries and other customers slash their purchases of crude and storage tanks fill up.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/business/coronavirus-opec-russia-oil.html
OPEC+ meeting planned for April 6: RIA, citing Azeri ministry:
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Azerbaijan’s energy ministry on Friday said that a meeting of the OPEC+ group of oil producers is planned for April 6 and will be held as a video conference, the RIA news agency reported.
The ministry said that all OPEC+ countries are expected to take part and that stabilizing prices on oil markets would be discussed.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-meeting-idUSKBN21L0UL?taid=5e8706b39a7fcd0001c4ab36&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
As oil sinks, some companies float idea of 'zero clause' in trades:
LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - After the worst quarter for oil prices in history, some oil producers have begun to include protection in their contracts to avoid being forced to pay buyers for the oil they pump if prices slide below $0 a barrel.
Such occurrences are rare, though it has happened in other markets, such as West Texas natural gas markets, where spot prices dropped into negative territory in early March, forcing producers to pay to have others take their gas.
Oil prices have been hammered by the collapse in demand after the coronavirus outbreak and the sudden end of an OPEC-led supply reduction pact. Oil benchmarks plunged more than 65% in the first quarter.
Futures prices rebounded on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Russia and Saudi Arabia could come together to support markets. However, if global demand falls by 30 million barrels per day (bpd), prices could still fall, and there could be bigger discounts for barrels produced in more isolated locales.
Major oil companies and those involved in U.S. shale have started introducing a zero clause, to avoid having to pay buyers to take oil away, six sources said.
“If the purchase price to be paid by Buyer to Seller for any crude oil delivered is less than zero dollars, such purchase price shall be deemed to be zero dollars,” reads one such clause, one of the six sources said.
Exxon Mobil Corp introduced such clauses into contracts a few days ago for new deals, according to two counterparties to Exxon’s trades who have seen the contracts. Exxon declined to comment on commercial matters.
“The majors have brought this up as a discussion,” said one of the trade sources familiar with the talks, adding the price was a matter for the parties to agree upon. “It could be somewhere between $5 and zero.”
Others said it could be difficult to add clauses as it would affect trading relationships. “We are not doing it and are not accepting it when we purchase,” one source at a U.S. shale producer said.
Three sources in the North American crude market said they were in discussions with legal teams on language around such clauses. One Canadian oil producer’s notice to customers seen by Reuters put a floor price of one penny on trades.
Canadian heavy oil in Alberta traded $16.65 per barrel below WTI, or about $3.60 a barrel outright on Wednesday.
The physical Brent crude benchmark, known as dated Brent, dropped to a new record discount to Brent futures at about a $10 a barrel.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-crude-discounts/as-oil-sinks-some-companies-float-idea-of-zero-clause-in-trades-idUSKBN21L0MC?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
Oil crash poses severe test for OPEC+ after Moscow, Riyadh miscalculate:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-saudi-russia-miscalculatio-idUSKBN21K35F?taid=5e8685389a7fcd0001c4a918&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
Had to sell that pop and bought the evil twin, NRGD.
Everything I've been seeing is pointing to the opposite.
Still bearish AF.
Cautiously optimistic. I know Trump is 99.5% full-of-shit.
Saudi oil supply hits record high despite U.S. pressure:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-saudi-idUSKBN21J5TE?taid=5e854e209a7fcd0001c4a423&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
From what you've posted, this looks to be the safest.
I don't know what this thing is tracking, but it ain't oil.
I was referring to the price action, or lack thereof being stuck at 1.88, while oil was all over the place. Like oil is down over 7% but NRGU is only down 15%. Last time I checked, 7 x 3 is 21. Maybe a glitch in the Matrix?
For a 3X leveraged Bull U.S. Big Oil ETN the price action looks more like a 2x, or even less.
Did they switch the leverage amount when I wasn't looking? Very odd price action.
Yeah, but for how long? "Looks like this one was saved."
I'd like to know with some certainty, which leveraged 3x Bull crude ETF will be around, and STAY around.
Anyhoo, thanks for posting.
F it, all in.