This is the one to be in for the next few weeks.
John Kilduff, managing partner: “OPEC+ seems to disappoint the market more often than not. ... They needed to move mountains here and they maybe moved a hill.”
VONTOBEL ASSET MANAGEMENT
Michel Salden, head of commodities: “Today’s ‘deal’ did not bring much clarity so far and looks more like an invitation to the G20 energy ministers to agree on a 5 mbpd cut tomorrow which would bring the overall cut in oil output to 15 mbpd.”
Scott Shelton, energy specialist: “While OPEC is cutting as expected, there is simply too much crude in the physical space for sale, with too few pipelines to move it and too few buyers to take it. The most expensive priced oil in the U.S. is Cushing WTI for May and that is likely to lead us to lower prices regardless of what OPEC does.”
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS:
Michael Tran, managing director of energy strategy: “The market’s muted price reaction is a sobering indicator of the headwinds that remain, namely demand destruction. An acute near-term surge in crude prices would cripple refining economics and result in further run cuts.”
Roger Read, senior energy analyst: “Until the extreme social distancing economic shutdown measures are significantly relaxed across North America, Europe and parts of Asia, OPEC+ supply cuts are simply playing catch-up at best.”
Ethan Bellamy, senior analyst: “10 million barrels per day is insufficient to balance the market. ... OPEC’s only real choice to bring the U.S. and other higher-cost producers along is to allow price to ration supply. With half a trillion in reserves, we think the Russians can outlast U.S. producers in a fight for market share.”
Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets: “A 10 million-bpd deal is far lower than what the market needs at the moment. And even that seems to be of a fragile nature, as OPEC+ producers appear to struggle to agree, dragging negotiations longer than expected.”
“Our updated 2020 global oil balance suggests that a 10million barrels per day (bpd) headline cut (for an effective 6.5million bpd cut in production) would not be sufficient, stillrequiring an additional 4 million bpd of necessary price inducedshut-ins.”
Bob Yawger, director of energy futures: “It will only slow filling of storage. It’s not going to save the day, but it’s better than nothing.”
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol,said a production cut of as much as 10 million bpd would stillresult in a 15 million-bpd buildup of crude in the secondquarter.
BCS GLOBAL MARKETS
Kirill Tachennikov, director and senior oil analyst: “It is not technically possible to achieve these numbers in less than a month, and it is not enough to offset current oversupply that is exceeding 20 million bpd as it stands. As a result, the challenges of oil storage gradually filling up is still a very real issue.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-opec-factbox-instantview-idUSKCN21R2ZT?taid=5e8f70dd6091910001d49453&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:%20Trending%20Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter&fbclid=IwAR0ADpHFgvGrew-2kGqZMI0TKTOy3v_qtzGzE7mG4oRf9JUmVp_LEy68Fq8