well, once again I wish I would've held POT longer, sold off monday for a nice gain, had I held til today and sold at HOD it would have been a 325% gain on my april 175 calls

finally got rid of my POT 175 calls, bought last month at 5.80, just sold at 9.70. 67% gain Took some patience and had a few moments I was worried I was going to end up taking a big hit but ended up pulling through rather nice.

POT trading at 172.00 in premarket

I have found that it's much easier to hold onto a play once you have a nice profit in it. IMO at that point I determine what the minimum profit I am willing to take is and let the stock run from there. As long as I maintain the level of profit I want out of it anything else is just considered a bonus from there. I do this as I have seen way too many plays continue to run after taking profit on them. It is good to set limits on plays to keep emotion out of it but hard not to have emotion when you take profit at a set level only to see the play make huge gains afterwards.

One thing that I look at is the previous days candles. Once a run starts and I have passed my initial expectation if the stock is still running I set my sell point at half of the last green candle, if it continues to rise I readjust, if it falls to or below that point sell. That's the shortened version of it anyway, I can explain it better with a chart but don't have time right now to work one up.

yep, that's kind of what I did with POT, went for broke on it

DY also flirting with some gains this week, broke 13.00 yesterday then pulled back some. I don't have near the capital in DY as I do POT but could still make some nice gains on my April 15.00 calls if it continues well.

POT is running nice today, with any luck maybe I will be able to get out of my April 175 calls sometime tomorrow or next week

I think POT's move is just beginning, I look for it to be above 170.00 in the next week or two. I could always be wrong but I'm thinking if we can tolerate the ups and downs it is going to continue to gain

POT took a little dip this morning but has come back very nice. I've not looked up when they post financials yet but I really look for great financials on this one which will give it a nice boost IMO

BSC trading at 9.90 premarket, looks like my lotto play on my 15.00 calls may pay off here

DY doing well this morning as well up to 12.70

Excellent, nice flip on that one

UYG looking good this morning, you still holding or did you take profits?

looks like the markets are going to open green this morning, quite a change from what it was looking like about an hour ago

V should be a good one, I plan to keep an eye on it

Morgan Stanley 1Q Beats Expectations
Wednesday March 19, 7:40 am ET

Morgan Stanley 1st-Qtr Results Above Expectations on Strong Equities, Fixed-Income Trading

NEW YORK (AP) -- Morgan Stanley, one of the world's biggest investment banks, says strong equity sales and trading helped lift first-quarter profits above Wall Street projections.

The company has posted a profit of $1.55 billion, or $1.45 per share, down from $2.67 billion, or $2.17 per share, last year.

Analysts were expecting a profit of $1.03 per share, according to Thomson Financial.

The results follow better-than-expected earnings from rivals Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs.

I really like ANH and SEPR out of your picks on pinchers, the others look good but IMO ANH and SEPR are the two closest to making their moves.

BSC (Bear Stearns) 5.91 Super Pincher

I know there isn't much good to say about this one right now, but then again when it comes to pinchers there usually isn't any promising news on the horizon, yet we see time and time again how they make great gains. This one would only have to recover a small portion of where it came from to make some huge, huge gains. On the flip side of that it's anybody's guess how this will play out. I took a small position with some April 15.00 calls today, small amount risked, if it works out could be some nice gains on it. I'm a risk taker by nature so this is one of my favorite type plays. I'll be the genius or the dunce on this one, either big gains or lose it all!

I was just looking back through the charts of UYG's biggest holdings, impressive moves across the board today. IMO we still have a bumpy road ahead with the financials, but I believe the tide is turning and things should start shaping up over the coming months with these plays.

Link back for charts

I thought this was a good enough read that I posted the story instead of a link.



Option fear gauge drops as Fed move sparks gains
Tue Mar 18, 2008 6:16pm EDT


CHICAGO (Reuters) - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, Wall Street's main barometer of investor fear, fell sharply on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve cut a key U.S. interest rate and stronger-than-expected earnings results from two investment banks calmed credit concerns.

The VIX, as it is often called, closed at 25.79, down 20.01 percent, its biggest one-day percentage loss since mid-November 2007 and the fourth biggest daily drop in the past 14 years.

The decline in the volatility index comes one day after it hit a five-year closing high of 32.24 and one day ahead of VIX options expiration.

The VIX has been on the rise after the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos Inc which stunned Wall Street and pummeled financial stocks on the eve of an expected U.S. interest rate cut.

The financial sector had been in the spotlight by investors after JPMorgan Chase & Co agreed over the weekend to buy stricken Bear Stearns for $2 per share with the backing of the Fed.

But after the Fed's interest rate cut, many financial stocks, including some of the biggest losers in the subprime mortgage meltdown, were top gainers on the New York Stock Exchange.

Traders believe stability is returning, and will likely reduce their option hedges, said Kyle Rosen, president of Rosen Capital Management, a California-based options hedge fund.

U.S. stocks surged helped by stronger-than-expected quarterly results from Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers. They extended their gains after the central bank slashed rates by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent, its lowest level since February 2005, in a move aimed to hold off a deep recession.

"The Fed has reassured investors to the extent that volatility will go down," said Herb Kurlan, chief executive of VTrader Pro LLC, a broker-dealer in San Francisco.

The Fed action over the weekend and the reduction of interest rates combined with the relatively positive earnings reports from Lehman and Goldman, gave investors assurance that they can come back into the market, he said.

"Investors can now refocus on buying or selling stocks based on the fundamentals, rather than looking over their shoulders and worry about the next company suddenly going out of business," Kurlan said. "So the demand for put options which drive volatility has been abated for the time being."

The VIX, which measures projected stock market volatility embedded in near-term S&P 500 option prices, is a contrarian indicator and generally moves opposite to the index.

"With little else on the economic calendar over the next two days along with the recent rebound in the financials, the VIX might drift lower still, now that an important event risk has passed," said independent options trader Frederic Ruffy.

Shortly after I took profits on CIEN on Friday I bought back in the April 35 calls at .30, I took profit on those today at .45 for another 50% gain before commissions.

Now if I can just get those POT April 175.00 calls back into play, down on them a bit right now but not sweating it at all.

Also holding a handful of DY April 15.00 calls for another lotto play. I've got time on them, the chart had a super nice pinch and today really looked good. If it can sustain today's gains and build on them we may be on our way.

DY, been watching this one close for awhile now. May be at the brink of making a move. SAR reversed today and it's getting some nice buying pressure right now

I grabbed a couple april 15.00 calls at 1.00 for Bear Stearns as a little lotto play.

Here's some news to go with that expected rate cut today, Financials should boom today

Goldman Sachs 1st-Quarter Results Sail Past Wall Street Expectations


NEW YORK (AP) -- Goldman Sachs has reported first-quarter results that easily beat Wall Street projections.
The company says it earned $3.23 per share on revenue of $8.33 billion. Analysts had been expecting earnings of $2.58 per share on $7.47 billion in sales, according to Thomson Financial.

I was just sitting here watching things and have come to a realization that we have somewhat of a wrong mindset on things. We sit down in the morning and are in shock if the markets gap way down and look to be falling apart but cheer if the markets gap up. Then if the markets are down we sit back in fear of buying as we are afraid it will continue to fall. If the markets gap up we are more than willing to buy as everything looks to be doing well. We are doing this backwards guys, it shouldn't and doesn't matter which way the markets go at open we know how to play it both ways but we are letting emotions and fear guide our trades.

One thing I was looking at were those stocks that aren't financials, as it was mostly news on one stock, Bear Stearns, that caused the sudden drop. One sector that hit me was the Ag stocks. They all took big gaps down this morning and we just sat there and watched. We should've been buying.

 
  
 Stock        Low        High       Gain       % gain 
  
 POT         152.06      159.11     7.05        4.64% 
 MON         102.77      107.98     5.21        5.07% 
 MOS         101.20      105.96     4.76        4.70% 
 DE           79.08       83.09     4.01        5.07% 
 AG           57.17       59.47     2.30        4.02%

geez, what a shocker this morning. I worked much of the weekend and took a break from the markets. I just logged in and all I see is red.

Sure wish I would have bought those BSC puts I was looking at on Friday

CIENA, I just can't stay out of it, got back in the april 35.00 calls here at .30

Outstanding move with some super nice gains

added april 175 calls on POT at premium of 5.80

CIEN, sold my calls, out with 100% gain, Now if it will fall enough to get my puts in play it may be a decent day. Dow looks like it really wants to go south. Figured I would take profits and look to buy back in at cheaper price

Of course the two best looking charts I could find last night are both pharmaceutical plays. I'm learning to not hate them as much as I used to. I think I got such a bad taste with pharmaceuticals when I was playing pennies. I'm learning the bigger companies like abbott and pfizer aren't so bad of plays.

CIEN printing 30.00 in pre market, could be another good day

ABT Chart 52.55

ONXX Chart, 27.97 with a super pinch on it

I have no idea how the company is doing, haven't researched it and probably won't. The chart however has a super tight pinch on it, I love the sweeping hook the candles are forming and it's turned gains for the last three straight days, good sign bottom has formed on it.

SAM had some more nice gains today. Another one of my picks I didn't play (mainly because there were no options on it) that has ran large. Found it on Saturday at 34.15, closed today at 47.92. 40% gainer in 3 trading days. Had this one had options we could have gotten extremely well off it.

Link back for chart

I'm trading the chart, I honestly believe it's just getting started. I'm looking for CIEN to get back up to where it had last consolidated around the 34.00 mark. If it pulls it off I'll be sitting large on it, if not and it falls apart, I'll take profit and hope it falls enough my puts come into play before mid april. I'm pretty comfortable with this one right now especially considering many times I jump out a bit too early on my plays only to miss out on more gains.

very bad visual indeed

CIEN mention from Wall Street Journal online posted at 4:55pm today. Hopefully the Tiger will continue on its run

Network equipment maker Ciena added 4.4%, or $1.23, to $29.50 on Nasdaq after Lehman Brothers initiated coverage of the stock with an "overweight" rating. "We believe the company is strategically positioned to benefit from network capacity constraints/bandwidth demands, and the larger transition to Ethernet/IP based networks," analyst Inder Singh wrote.

That's not a bad gain at all. Lock it in and wait to see how the regular market takes the news tomorrow. I've seen plenty of times news hit after hours and the stock rise only for it to drop the next morning when regular trading resumes.

I'm still holding, I'm looking for bigger gains on this one and don't want to get shook out for a mere 125% gain.........lol

I've still got plenty of time with april calls and my actual gains aren't as huge as I bought a spread on it so I have to cover the cost of my puts as well