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Anyone have any ideas why we did not hear any good discussions or questions about more Elfabrio sales?
added at .63
added at $1.05
So we wait again for 3 more months.
Maybe the elfabrio sales in 3 months will finally get the stock to go up and stay up, and by the end of the year (just 9 months) we finally see this as the winner that we hoped for.
added at 1.48
BLRX might help 3/4 of pancreatic cancer patients
This article is from December of 2019. "Seventy-seven percent of patients were able to achieve disease control rate," said Philip Serlin, chief executive officer of BioLineRx.
https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/New-Israeli-pancreatic-cancer-treatment-could-extend-most-patients-lives-611085
Approx cost for a fabry patient is 300K/year
The below link shows a fabry patient has the Average Annual Drug Cost ($) of over 300K
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK533452/table/pe.app1.tab1/
So for every 1,000 patients, that equals 300M. Every 2,000 patients is 600M, 4,000 patients equals 1.2B
I've read on the stocktwits board that a 600M market cap could make the stock about $10; a 900M market cap would be around $15 and 1.2B about $20. 1.5B would be about $25.
So it will be interesting to see how many new patients switch over the next several months and beyond.
added early this morning at 1.93
NIH article expects FDA approval
It says: "motixafortide has completed phase-III clinical trials and is in the pre-submission phase. It is expected to obtain FDA approval" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10386233/
motixafortide reference:
https://biolinerx.com/motixafortide-in-cancer-immunotherapy/
I read it once (maybe a few times) on the stocktwits board. It was probably around a month ago. I have not heard it anywhere else.
I've heard one patient is about 300K/year.
I do not know if this is true. If it is, then a 10 million estimate would be about 30 patients that switched to Elfabrio so far.
If anyone heard different, I would like to be corrected.
Reminder, Russell 3000 adds PLX tomorrow (Monday)
We should see a lot more volume going forward. Let's see if it helps the stock price.
Zacks article: PLX target price & valuation $16
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plx-back-envelope-150000398.html
This part was interesting:
----------------------------------------------------------------
"We performed a quick and conservative back of the envelope analysis to generate a base case valuation.
? Fabry Disease market size – $2 billion 2
? Potential market share – 15% – 50%
? Royalty from Chiesi – 15% to 40%
? Applied multiple of royalty revenues – 15x – 25x
? Convertible debt – rounded up to $30 mm
If we take the low end of each of these components and calculate a value, this produces a conservative enterprise value estimate of about $675 million. After subtracting convertible debt this gives us an equity value of $645 million or about $10 per share."
"Our target price and valuation are determined using a set of more realistic assumptions that produce a $16 target which we recently increased following the FDA approval of Elfabrio. These assumptions include peak penetration of 18% of US and ex-US markets, as well as a sum of royalty and milestone payments of up to 40% of product revenues."
Protalix BioTherapeutics set to join Russell 3000® Index
CARMIEL, Israel, May 23, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Protalix BioTherapeutics, Inc. (NYSE American: PLX), a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development, production and commercialization of recombinant therapeutic proteins produced by its proprietary ProCellEx® plant cell–based protein expression system, today announced that it is set to join the broad-market Russell 3000® Index at the conclusion of the 2023 Russell indexes annual reconstitution, effective after the US market opens on June 26, 2023 according to a preliminary list of additions posted May 19.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/protalix-biotherapeutics-set-to-join-russell-3000-index-301831972.html
PLX is Short sale restricted for 2023-05-15
Anyone know much about this?
https://www.shortablestocks.com/?PLX
PLX volume 1st day after FDA approval: 7,632,535
Here are the numbers for today's volume:
Volume 7,632,535
Avg. Volume 1,664,273
I was thinking it might have been even higher today, but it might be awhile until the bigger institutes start coming in.
Congrats again longs. Enjoy the ride up.
I have been waiting around 4 years for today.
Probably FDA approval tonight per a stocktwits user
Cash_flow (probably the best PLX poster on stocktwits) just posted this. I am copying what he wrote below
https://stocktwits.com/Cash_Flow/message/527049036
"BBB and I have been briefed. While we obviously can’t disclose any material info at this moment, he will be providing the hourly rocket emojis tonight and I’ll just leave you with this [Bullish icon]
(Old 2017 article) PLX $320M in milestone payments
I wonder if the above statement is still accurate from this article which is over 5 years old when Protalix entered into a partnership with Chiesi Farmaceutici
https://www.reuters.com/article/brief-protalix-biotherapeutics-enters-in-idUSFWN1MT09Y
That makes sense. Thank you.
EMA & FDA markets & population sizes
Anyone have any thoughts of how much profit is in Europe versus U.S. with the populations listed below?
Population of Europe is 746.4 million (2018)
Population of U.S. is 331.9 million (2021)
Since Europe is more than double the size of the U.S., it seem there would be a lot more of the market for Protalix in Europe with EMA approval than with the U.S. with FDA approval.
Here are the PLX links needed this week
I am copying this from stocktwits and then copying the full message below:
https://stocktwits.com/Taliban_Gigolo/message/526677706
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FDA Drug Approvals
https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf/index.cfm?event=reportsSearch.process
FDA Press Announcements
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements
PR News Wire – PLX
https://www.prnewswire.com/news/protalix-biotherapeutics%2C-inc./
PLX Press Releases
https://protalixbiotherapeutics.gcs-web.com/press-releases
My plan is to follow BLRX more closely
I planned to get through these PLX approvals and then look at my BLRX holdings more closely before their September PDUFA
of course i'd like to be wrong!
I think this is the first time that I would like you to be wrong too. :)
But even if you are right, we can be very confident that the next few days, weeks and months should be exciting (after hopefully the FDA approves of course).
Mazel Tov!
Have a great weekend all! We waited a long time for this.
Stock market opens in 5 minutes.
Now the fun starts for PLX holders.
Mazel tov.
Congrats longs and friends!
Yes Midas, now we hopefully hear good news from the FDA on Tuesday (or sooner and hopefully not much later)
Within 48 hours, we might know EMA approval
Midas, the link you gave says this at the bottom: "It will be possible to request access to this document or download it within 48 hours"
So maybe we will know about EMA approval within 2 days from when that was posted (which was probably much earlier today).
If so, then we might know Friday or Monday at the latest (assuming they mean 48 business hours)
Conference call was average
For those who did not get a chance to listen, except that we are still waiting for EMA and FDA approvals. there was not much other exciting stuff.
Agreed again.
Yes some (probably many) of them are wishful thinkers-I carefully try to avoid spending too much time reading or discussing with those ones. :)
Cheers & mazel tov!!
The volume speaks volumes
Volume 4,750,709
Avg. Volume 1,354,471
Agreed.
Just wanted to share some of the good thinkers on stocktwits with others here as we now wait for the final moments after years of waiting.
On a completely separate note, thanks for all your messages on this board over the years. Much appreciated.
Cheers
The EMA & FDA agree 90%+ of the time
I am copying a post from a user named cash_flow from stocktwits, who as previously mentioned, is one of the smarter people on the PLX board. He wrote:
"For those that are worried about the FDA next week, as well… the EMA and FDA agree 90%+ of the time.. and if you factor in the drugs that were denied by either/or but ultimately approved, it is greater than 95%."
https://stocktwits.com/Cash_Flow/message/525890293
Another argument for a buyout
Another SEC filing came out today; here's what another user on stocktwits wrote:
"How can you read that filing and not see that the company is heading towards a total buyout?" https://stocktwits.com/PortfolioMgmt23/message/525863149
Here again is the location of the SEC filings. I searched for the word "severance" to see what the above stocktwits user meant:
https://protalixbiotherapeutics.gcs-web.com/sec-filings
Possibility of an acquisition
I prefer no acquisition so that PLX grows by itself. I am quoting one of the better thinkers (cash_flow) from stock twits who wrote, "This 10k has acquisition written all over it". His post is here:
https://stocktwits.com/Cash_Flow/message/525536554
Here is the 10K from today:
https://protalixbiotherapeutics.gcs-web.com/sec-filings
If anyone here knows how to read a 10K for hints of an acquisition, I welcome your thoughts.
BLRX has a new National Sales Director
This info comes from a Stocktwits post; I copied & pasted more info from linkedin below"
https://stocktwits.com/Stocklover01_/message/523328982
The new sales person wrote this on linkedin:
"I’m happy to share that I’m starting a new position as National Sales Director at BioLineRx! This leadership position encompasses primary responsibility for hiring best in class Transplant Account Managers that will prep the market and launch Motixafortide. I'm also responsible for achieving assigned national goals of volume and profitability and driving national strategy and tactical execution."
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7053706204845338624/
Welcome Spidey.
I have been in BLRX since 2019.
And over double the volume
Volume 2,102,709
Avg. Volume 1,019,409
Positive CHMP = over 90% approved
I know this was discussed before, but don't recall if anyone gave the link below from Zacks.
"While we were not able to find any specific studies that estimated the probability of approval for a rare disease candidate after a positive CHMP opinion, a review of literature addressing the topic suggests that greater than 90% of products that receive such an opinion are ultimately approved."
https://scr.zacks.com/news/news-details/2023/PLX-May-is-a-Big-Month-article/default.aspx
Maybe a leak in good news?
Maybe someone leaked good news about earnings?