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Hey, Hook. They're playing games, as you can see. The NDX downtrend that started intraday 11/16 (and on a closing basis on 11/17) is still intact. But unlike previous declines, they're playing this one out very slowly and incrementally. A little down, a little up, repeat. But the NDX has to bottom and turn before we start the Christmas rally. My guess is that the bottom will play out either later this week or early next week. Or perhaps we just meander around these levels going into the holiday? That's what happened back in Dec., 2003, as I recall. Tricky bastards, aren't they? Two
blasher, it's easy to understand why there's little or no confidence. The London Times, not the U.S. press, explains how Kashkari and Paulson came up with the $700-billion bank bailout number. Two
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In February 2008, Mr Kashkari was charged with drafting an emergency plan in case the credit crunch became a full-blown financial crisis. By October the crisis had arrived and his ten-page plan became the blueprint for the banks' bailout that Mr Paulson presented to Congress.
Mr Kashkari admitted that he plucked “a number out of the air” when deciding with Mr Paulson how much funding to request from Congress for the Tarp.
He told The Washington Post that he used his BlackBerry to calculate the bailout figures: “We have $11 trillion residential mortgages, $3 trillion commercial mortgages. Total $14 trillion. Five per cent of that is $700 billion. A nice round number.”
Recalling a conversation with Mr Paulson, he said: “It was a political calculus. I said, ‘We don't know how much is enough. We need as much as we can get . What about a trillion?' 'No way,' Hank shook his head. I said, 'Okay, what about 700 billion?' We didn't know if it would work. We had to project confidence, hold up the world. We couldn't admit how scared we were, or how uncertain.” The American Bailout Nightmare - Times London
A drop in the early going tomorrow, then up and away for the day. JMHO. Have a great evening. Two
Are Da Boyz propping the indexes until 2 p.m. when this report surfaces (George Ure at UrbanSurvival)? Two
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When this afternoon's Consumer Debt report comes out from the Fed ( 2 PM ET) nothing would surprise me less than to see another $12-billion drop in consumer spending. Hard to grow jobs under those conditions.
Insider selling at a very high level, according to Ty Durden at ZeroHedge. Two
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Most Recent Insider Selling to Buying Ratio: 82:1Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/07/2009 09:37 -0500
You would think that insiders would finally change their tune after almost a year of straight line gains in the market. Think again. The most recent insider trading data from finviz indicates that insider sellling outpaces buying by a ratio of 82! In the most recent data set, $11.6 million in stock was purchased by insiders, while a whopping $957 million was sold. And somehow pundits are still spinning this mass orchestrated sell into the bid by those in the know as a bull market.
Fearless prediction: Qs/NDX go up first thing Monday a.m., then they drop hard...and probably continue to fall on Tuesday. But it's only Da Boyz setting up for yet another rally starting later in the week (or thereabouts). JMHO. Everyone have a great weekend. Two
...“outsourcing” is like talking about overpopulation to a catholic bishop. LOL. Very good, Fox. Two
Fox, it all started with "globalization," a concept that ensured jobs would leave the U.S. for overseas. During Clinton's administration, this was encouraged through NAFTA; Bush's administration had a "hands-off" policy toward big business that drained and destroyed millions of U.S. jobs. And now we have a president who never held a real job in his life tell us--and big business--how to create jobs. Our own government has and continues to destroy America through its stupidity and bad policies. Two
you, my take is that after the usual Monday a.m. rush, we're going down next week. They want to bottom everything toward the end of the week, then jam it up into OE week (which will initiate the holiday rally). JMHO. Two
They should be wide awake and screaming at stupid Obama, who is completely ignorant of the real job situation in America. As someone pointed out this morning on the news, neither Obama nor anyone else in his Cabinet has held a real private sector job or created a job vis-a-vis a business. And we expect them to create jobs? Here is the real job situation in our country, and it isn't very pretty. Two
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Robert Reich Confirms Permanent Destruction of Jobs in America
Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich writes today:
The basic assumption that jobs will eventually return when the economy recovers is probably wrong. Some jobs will come back, of course. But the reality that no one wants to talk about is a structural change in the economy that's been going on for years but which the Great Recession has dramatically accelerated.
Under the pressure of this awful recession, many companies have found ways to cut their payrolls for good. They've discovered that new software and computer technologies have made workers in Asia and Latin America just about as productive as Americans, and that the Internet allows far more work to be efficiently outsourced abroad.
This means many Americans won't be rehired unless they're willing to settle for much lower wages and benefits. Today's official unemployment numbers hide the extent to which Americans are already on this path. Among those with jobs, a large and growing number have had to accept lower pay as a condition for keeping them. Or they've lost higher-paying jobs and are now in a new ones that pays less.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/12/rob...-permanent.html
It was a bull trap, wasn't it? Two
Well, if Da Boyz got the job report, it was provided by the White House (which denied that it gets these reports early...lol). Two
OT: Second joke of the day (courtesy of ZH's Ty Durden). Two
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$180 Million, yes, not Billion, Million, was Reverse Repoed (in a 3 day operation) by the FRBNY in its first executed Temporary Open Market Operation Test as part of the liquidity soak up process. The collateral was "Treasury", not CMBS, not stocks of bankrupt companies, but the safest of the safe securities. And even so Primary Dealers could barely part with just under $200 million. So let's do the math: excess liquidity of about $1 Trillion, and a reverse repo of $180 Million: that's just over 5000 TOMOs to go. Don't say the Federal Reserve has no sense of humor.
OT: Joke of the day (provided by CNBC). Two
White House: "We dont have unemployment numbers in advance."
My take still remains that the Qs/NDX topped on 11/16 (intraday) and on 11/17 (closing basis). We came close to testing those highs this morning but turned down around 9:50. The INDU, on the other hand, is still searching for a top. My guess that it will find one if/when Bernanke is confirmed. The Qs/NDX may test, once again, the November highs at that time(?). What a crapshoot. Two
From my perspective, it's still a little too early in the morning to tell, Gleno. I don't track closely the SPX, but I do track the INDU and it's suggesting to me that there's one more high to come. Probably happen during the next holiday rally. Two
Hey, MRCapital, I hope Sen. Sanders doesn't chicken out and become Col. Sanders? We desperately need men of character who aren't afraid to do the right thing and fire the bald-headed crook. Two
Hey, Fox. What do you make of Ty Durden's comments re. the Nikkei? Think there's any correlation? Two
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Does The Nikkei Foreshadow A 10% Drop In The S&P?Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/02/2009 13:51 -0500
As Zero Hedge presented previously, the sharp divergence between the Nikkei and the S&P continues. The two indexes, which have correlated 0.91 since March, have diverged sharply in the past three weeks, and now stand at an over 11% divergence in performance since the year lows. Whether this is due to the "shocking" recent realization that Japan is caught in an ever increasing deflationary vortex (which the US likely will not avoid, at least not in the near term), or simply due to momo quants deciding that the Nikkei is no longer fun to chase, a convergence trade on the two broad indexes (long Nikkei, short S&P) seems like a rather painless way to pick 10%. Then again, ask Boaz Weinstein about "surething" convergence trades.
Re. Tiger, I heard on the news last night that he makes "considerably more than $165 a minute." That's about $9,900/hour or $237,600/day. So you wonder, why did he get married (lol)? Two
you, my take is that Da Boyz want the indexes to close slightly in the red today. Then they'll jam everything higher tomorrow after Big Ben gets reappointed. Won't we all be "grateful" to have him for another four years? Two
OT: Laugh of the day department. From Mr. Obama's speech last night:
"We will be clear about what we expect from those who receive our assistance. We will support Afghan Ministries, Governors and local leaders that combat corruption and deliver for the people."
Hmmmm...perhaps it would be better, Mr. President, if you first combatted corruption in your own administration, Congress, the Fed, Treasury, FDIC, SEC, big banks....ad nauseum? Two
Well put, knickel. Price is the underlying basis of my charts and trading methods. Two
My take is that indicators still matter, only because when there are no buyers (i.e. low volume) and Da Boyz want to move the indexes, THEY become the buyers (or sellers) depending on which way they want things to move. They've got the money and trading platforms to accomplish this charade. Two
I'm looking for one more high today...like in the 44.25-44.30 area...then we top. Two
That figures, Fox. Did they also place orders for pistol holsters to go along with their khaki ski clothing? Two
OT: From the laugh department--the top turds at Goldman are getting real nervous about the citizenry coming after them. And for good reason, I suppose. So they're buying guns. Two
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Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- “I just wrote my first reference for a gun permit,” said a friend, who told me of swearing to the good character of a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker who applied to the local police for a permit to buy a pistol. The banker had told this friend of mine that senior Goldman people have loaded up on firearms and are now equipped to defend themselves if there is a populist uprising against the bank.
$30 billion? How 'bout $3 trillion? And Obama will tell everyone that "Satan made me do it." Two
"Nac ew sey"? Doesn't translate for me (lol)? What say you? Two
This is a pump perpetrated by Da Boyz before Obama tells the nation tonight that 34K more troops are going to Afghanistan. We're still in a downtrend from 11/16. JMHO. Two
My take, Gleno, is that the Q/NDX topped on 11/16 and we're still in a downtrend. We may test the highs, but I don't think so. Looks to me like we still will go down and bottom out...perhaps at the end of this week? Then we'll start the next holiday rally? Two
you, it looks like up in the a.m. for the Qs/NDX, however. They want to suck in the new fund money. Then down. JMHO. Two
OT: Bernanke's op-ed re. the economy, as "translated" by The Wall Street Examiner." A must read. Two
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Bernanke- The Right Reform For The Fed- Translated
November 29, 2009
By The Wall Street Examiner
The following is a translation of the Bernanke OpEd piece in today’s Washington Paste taken from the pages of our message board..
by Heywood
(Wall Street Examiner Forums)Nov. 29- For many Americans, the financial crisis, and the recession it spawned, have been devastating — jobs, homes, savings lost. Understandably, many people are calling for change. To those people, I would just like to say “F— you, you’re not the boss of me”. As a nation, our challenge is to design a system of financial oversight that will further enrich the financial oligarchy and their hangers-on, and provide a robust framework to continue their financial supremacy in the face of any competence-related issues.
These matters are complex, and Congress is still in the midst of considering how best to maximize their campaign contributions. I am concerned, however, that a number of the legislative proposals being circulated would significantly reduce the capacity of the Federal Reserve to place its alumni in high-paying positions in the institutions that we regulate. Notably, some leading proposals in the Senate would strip the Fed of all its bank regulatory powers. And a House committee recently voted to repeal a 1978 provision that was intended to protect monetary policy from short-term political influence. These measures are very much out of step with the global consensus that central bankers deserve the full share of the power and privilege that comes with this turf. The Fed played a major part in not arresting the people who caused the crisis, and we should be seeking to preserve, not degrade, the institution’s ability to preserve the status quo, and to promote economic recovery without allocation of responsibility.
The proposed measures are at least in part the product of public anger over the financial crisis and the government’s response, particularly the rescues of some individual financial firms. The government’s actions to avoid financial collapse last fall — as distasteful and unfair as some undoubtedly were — have not completely succeeded in siphoning the last financial juices from the body politic. There continue to be a number of economic threats that present a real possibility that Goldman Sachs may lose money again in the future. (I know something about this, having spent my career prior to public service giving head in the Goldman executive washroom.) My colleagues at the Federal Reserve and I were determined not to allow that to happen.
Moreover, looking to the future, we strongly support measures — including the development of a special cronyism regime for financial firms whose disorderly failure would threaten the integrity of the financial system — to ensure that ad hoc interventions of the type we were forced to use last fall never happen again. Adopting such a regime, together with tougher oversight by large, complex financial firms, would make clear that the full faith and credit of the United States government will make the firms “too connected to fail” — while ensuring that the costs of failure are borne by taxpayers.
The Federal Reserve, like other regulators around the world, did not do all that it could have to constrain excessive risk-taking in the financial sector in the period leading up to the crisis. We also did not engage in anal sex with slime creatures from the Orion nebula, although that would be approximately as likely.
Working with other agencies, we have toughened our rules and oversight. We will be requiring banks to hold more of the taxpayers’ capital and liquidity and to structure compensation packages in ways that limit excessive risk to our friends’ paychecks. We are taking more explicit account of risks to the financial system as a whole.
We are also supplementing bank examination staffs with teams of sycophants, consultants, congressional aides and other penile suction experts. This combination of expertise, a unique strength of the Fed, helped make credibility and clarity to the “stress tests” of the banking system what they are today. These tests were led by the Fed and marked a turning point in public confidence in the banking system. [Hey, I don't have to say which direction it turned in.]
There is a strong case for a continued role for the Federal Reserve in bank supervision. Because of our role in making monetary policy, the Fed brings unparalleled economic and financial expertise to its oversight of banks, as demonstrated by the state of the financial system today. No other regulatory institution, can claim as large a share of the credit for the stability and prosperity that we now enjoy.
Of course, the ultimate goal of all our efforts is to restore and sustain the pipeline between the Treasury of Goldman Sachs, and the incumbents in the legislative and executive branch. To support knucklehead banks at the expense of the retired and the yet unborn, the Fed has cut interest rates aggressively and provided further stimulus through lending and asset-purchase programs. Our ability to take such actions without having our houses firebombed depends heavily on our credibility and independence from all forms of accountability. Many studies have shown that countries whose central banks make monetary policy independently of such influence have better economic performance, at least for the sort of people that I know personally.
Independent does not means unaccountable, at least to the people we are really working for. In its making of monetary policy, the Fed is as flexible and accommodating as a nymphomaniac gymnast. When one of our cronies say jump, we ask “how high”? Congress, through the Government Accessibilty Office, can and does take full credit for bailing out anybody with the proper handshake and country club membership.
We have come a long way in our battle against financial and economic opportunity, but there is a long way to go. Now more than ever, America needs a strong, nonpolitical and independent central bank with the tools to promote class stability and to help steer our economy to recovery without allocation of responsibility.
Hey, Fox. Da Boyz knew what was going to hit the fan as they allowed the indexes to crawl higher before Wednesday's close. Lee Adler at The Wall Street Examiner made an interesting point this morning. Two
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The Dubai World default is reported here, for the first time in the WSJ. It is dated Nov 25th, 7:53am, ET. It was Wednesday. The European market was still open. The US market opened 1 hour 37 min later. What happened that day, Wednesday, at the markets? US markets reached a fresh 13-month high.
Then the next day, Thursday, European markets dropped by 3% and US futures are down sharply. It took the market one whole day to read the Wall Street Journal and understand what is written there. Why?
This market is driven by millions of trained monkeys, some of them newbies, others trading for Barclays. But almost all of them do only one thing – they buy support and sell resistance. They have no clue what the economy in general is doing and what Dubai and default are, in particular. And yet they trade with trillions of dollars, mostly someone else’s dollars.
Every time I hear that the stock market is discounting all fundamentals and news, I’m shocked by the ignorance of the fact that this propaganda is designed only to make people trust their money to “professionals”. It’s a scam. The market is not discounting anything, The market is stupid and arrogant.
Hey, Gleno. Apparently, the young lady so dazzled the Federal agents that they couldn't remember what she said (lol)? Joe Biden seems to like her, as well. Two
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaele-Salahi/101907941877
You'd be better off flipping a coin and going with heads/tails than to follow this company's advice. Two
No one is selling because they know the propping will continue at least through Friday. And gold keeps going up because everyone knows Geithner is a "strong dollar man" (lol). What a racket. Two
OT: Answer to question, "Why did the turkey cross the road?" Because it was the chicken's day off. Two
I think you've got it right, Gleno. They're just dragging this out inch by inch, and they'll probably do the same on Friday (which is a half day of trading). Like you, I see next Monday as a possible "cliff dive." Two
Half congratulations (lol). Right on the first one. But only close on the second one. Two
OK, Gleno, here's the answer to the first one: "Turkey." The second one is tougher and I'll hold out with the answer until before the close. Unless, of course, someone has the answer. Two