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Possible.
If COVID spread again same could happen what we saw December 2021 to March 2022 about 700 points drop.
97 % who are admitted in hospitals are non Vaccinated, My two sons who are IM residents are telling same story. In vaccinated it is mild flue.
Last year I traveled south for 210 return now 670. Go figure. If airplane will be empty they would drop prices.
I think COVID itself is history now, in theory every next strain will be the weaker than Delta strain, I am not saying It can not mutate and become more virulent, odds are slim to happen, more deaths occur because nothing was available, now with vaccine, pills and awareness it will be left as flue even if precautions are not taken, IMOP, I was wrong many times and I was correct many times as well. I think probability is S&P could go to above 450 area or nearby before big khuna will start next year. for 2870 area tagging or testing 2800 Support area.
That is why Hotels are over booked and Airlines are charging what ever they could?
Where we see slow down except for supply chain issue?
Fear is best way to drop market.
Good to see you, could not agree more. QE is more powerful toll than interest rate hike. Market drop mostly for that very reason, probably. Recession will hit in March, June 2023. Right now consumer is too strong, look at hotel booking rates and air lines fare, rental car rates are highest. So that side story at moment don't justify, many here act like God for predictions, where as if they say I think it is high probability that will save them embarrassment. We might build base for more than a week or two before July blast off occur (Probability) It is a tough bear market. Although IMOP Russell will be the first to come out. I am watching.
It was a curve ball for drop in price. It may take few weeks to reach last high. Stay tuned, too far down from mean.
I will be scalping so Swing signal will be on hold.
Inflation is supply related. Not fiscal related whole world was closed now after opening demand is not met because of this stupid war and China closings and our policies towards other countries, particularly oil rich countries . Rate increase will bring recession only, will not curb inflation. Pundits needs to speak up. Long war is destroying our economical foundation, will skyrocket federal deficit. US$ is supported by rate increases. Crypto are destroyed to support US$. No other currency will be allowed to flourish.
Long TNA tomorrow some time.
All breaker limits are published and non violated in this down movement so far.
Deleted. Duplicate
My point is we all estimate no one knows the future. Some time we are accurate and we have figured out. Trading on probability is better option for long term success.
Majority never buy bottom and majority never sell top. It will also be true this time.
I think max we go in this down round is 370 area for this week. My upside projection is 388 -- 392 area on expiration.
I do not think we hit any breakers on Friday. Please explain.
I think you may be right in your projection but have you thought what if you are wrong?
SP 500 could correct more when energy correct because of demand or recession but 80% correction in S&P seems a little unlikely, JMHOP.
By the way if energy complex correct rest of the market could rally.
July Nymex natural gas (NGN22) on Wednesday closed down -0.594 (-6.39%).
Nat-gas prices Wednesday morning initially rallied to a new 13-3/4 year nearest-futures high but then plunged and closed sharply lower after a fire broke out at a Texas nat-gas export terminal. The fire at the Freeport LNG terminal, which receives about 2 bcf, or 2.5% of the output from the lower 48 U.S. states, could lead to a buildup in supplies as nat-gas exports are reduced because of the fire.
Nat-gas prices Wednesday initially climbed to a 13-3/4 year high on the outlook for hot U.S. temperatures to persist, which will boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power increased air-conditioning usage. Wednesday, the Commodity Weather Group said that above-normal temperatures are expected in the U.S. South, West, and parts of the Midwest at least through June 22.
Nat-gas prices have support after Russia recently said that foreign buyers of its gas would need to open special ruble and foreign currency accounts by the end of this month to buy Russian gas. Russia has already halted nat-gas shipments to Demark, Finland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, and Poland for not paying for Russian gas in rubles.
Stronger U.S. nat-gas production is bearish for prices as BNEF data showed lower-48 dry gas production Wednesday at 95.4 bcf, up +3.2% y/y.
Strong foreign demand for U.S. nat-gas supplies is bullish for prices after BNEF data showed gas flows to U.S. export terminals Wednesday rose by +1.5% w/w to 13.0 bcf.
Weakness in U.S. domestic nat-gas demand is bearish for prices as BNEF data shows lower 48-state nat-gas demand Wednesday was 63.3 bcf, down -7.3% y/y.
An increase in U.S. electricity output is bullish for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended June 4 rose +8.2% y/y to 80,794 GWh (gigawatt hours). Also, cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending June 4 rose +2.8% y/y to 4,096,496 GWh.
As a longer-term bullish factor, the ongoing drought in the U.S. West has drained rivers and reservoirs, with Lake Mead recently falling to a record low. That threatens to curb power produced by hydropower dams and will prompt electric utilities in the U.S. West to boost usage of nat-gas to increase electricity to satisfy power demand for air-conditioning this summer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said last Wednesday that the drought could drive down generation at California's hydro dams between June and September to 7 million megawatt-hours, well below the 13 million megawatt-hour median for summer generation between 1980 and 2020.
The consensus is for Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories to climb by +97 bcf.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices as it showed U.S. nat gas inventories rose +90 bcf to 1,902 bcf in the week ended May 27, above expectations of +87 bcf, although below the 5-year average for this time of year at +100 bcf. Inventories remain tight and are down -17.8% y/y and -15.1% below their 5-year average.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended June 3 was unchanged at a 2-1/2 year high of 151 rigs. Active rigs have recovered sharply from the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
July Nymex natural gas (NGN22) on Wednesday closed down -0.594 (-6.39%).
Nat-gas prices Wednesday morning initially rallied to a new 13-3/4 year nearest-futures high but then plunged and closed sharply lower after a fire broke out at a Texas nat-gas export terminal. The fire at the Freeport LNG terminal, which receives about 2 bcf, or 2.5% of the output from the lower 48 U.S. states, could lead to a buildup in supplies as nat-gas exports are reduced because of the fire.
Nat-gas prices Wednesday initially climbed to a 13-3/4 year high on the outlook for hot U.S. temperatures to persist, which will boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power increased air-conditioning usage. Wednesday, the Commodity Weather Group said that above-normal temperatures are expected in the U.S. South, West, and parts of the Midwest at least through June 22.
Nat-gas prices have support after Russia recently said that foreign buyers of its gas would need to open special ruble and foreign currency accounts by the end of this month to buy Russian gas. Russia has already halted nat-gas shipments to Demark, Finland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, and Poland for not paying for Russian gas in rubles.
Stronger U.S. nat-gas production is bearish for prices as BNEF data showed lower-48 dry gas production Wednesday at 95.4 bcf, up +3.2% y/y.
Strong foreign demand for U.S. nat-gas supplies is bullish for prices after BNEF data showed gas flows to U.S. export terminals Wednesday rose by +1.5% w/w to 13.0 bcf.
Weakness in U.S. domestic nat-gas demand is bearish for prices as BNEF data shows lower 48-state nat-gas demand Wednesday was 63.3 bcf, down -7.3% y/y.
An increase in U.S. electricity output is bullish for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended June 4 rose +8.2% y/y to 80,794 GWh (gigawatt hours). Also, cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending June 4 rose +2.8% y/y to 4,096,496 GWh.
As a longer-term bullish factor, the ongoing drought in the U.S. West has drained rivers and reservoirs, with Lake Mead recently falling to a record low. That threatens to curb power produced by hydropower dams and will prompt electric utilities in the U.S. West to boost usage of nat-gas to increase electricity to satisfy power demand for air-conditioning this summer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said last Wednesday that the drought could drive down generation at California's hydro dams between June and September to 7 million megawatt-hours, well below the 13 million megawatt-hour median for summer generation between 1980 and 2020.
The consensus is for Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories to climb by +97 bcf.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices as it showed U.S. nat gas inventories rose +90 bcf to 1,902 bcf in the week ended May 27, above expectations of +87 bcf, although below the 5-year average for this time of year at +100 bcf. Inventories remain tight and are down -17.8% y/y and -15.1% below their 5-year average.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended June 3 was unchanged at a 2-1/2 year high of 151 rigs. Active rigs have recovered sharply from the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
Thank you.
Sudden Jump in KOLD?
Signal still long I am not trading it.
Sold new buys and calls near high of the day. I will buy on Friday if we test 6 to 6.50 area again.
Sold Yesterday at close. No position now I may buy 43.57 but I am not short yet.
It is people perception that he doing worst than expectation, he is not putting USA interest first.
Opening supply channels are in his command, unnecessary rift with China and Russia is partly responsible for run away inflation, weak relationship with middle east are second culprit.
I do agree with some of your points.
Here is my take Russia was asking Ukraine should be neutral and should not become part of NATO, after all human loss and destruction of Ukraine, few weeks ago US change stand and willing to say Ukraine could be neutral. Now ask what was the purpose of the war, making Russia weak? Yes for time being but they are going to recover fast,they have captured Gas and oil rich area which will replenish losses fast. Europe still buying gas and oil from Russia than why rest of the world should be punished which increase inflation around the world, even best ally of US , India is also buying everything from them. So ask what good are these sanctions?
I am a registered Democrat but this time I may not vote for him.
Fed has no choice here IMOP.
I was wrong many times in past and I could be in future also.
Stopped out.
It defend the line and continue the trend. Closing above 6.06 is confirmation of bullish bias.
Today gave sell signal on QQQ.
Stop 308.15.
Seems difficult task. Market pretending to be weak. It may in reality also. LOL.
We tested upper R1 now testing Pivot. Need to close above 5.94 to keep going up.
Yes we disagree on Bonds, in face of recession demand of bonds will not surpass more than 5 % of current prices, short term bonds are affected by rate increase, long term bonds are not so much take hit. I also think most of inflation has passed the peak, unless war continue. More truck drivers are available but oil price is deterrent for small trucking companies.
I agree on Ethanol issue.
Thanks for your input.
No change in signal yet. We will take profit @ 46.50 or sell calls and with premium buy 2 weeks puts.
I think Opposite will happen, Fed was last resort buyer and provided liquidity. Now that is pulled back so they (bond sellers) need to find buyers so why buyers pays higher price, until they have fear of collapse. So doing this action they made money tight, double the effect of interest rate increase. So it curb spending, only two things making it difficult number 1 job market is still tight, 2 supply channels are still disrupted. Although China is coming back and tariff are going to be lifted.
Bigger problem is our policy makers miss judged Russian response and length of war. Mr. Biden will be consider worst president of USA. I feel now this could be mother of all bear markets if this war does not stop in next 4 weeks.
I hope I am wrong.
Good luck and happy trading.
I agree, trading part of holding could improved average cost. It should be easy double in one year period. Because war is going to linger more so I gave it more time.
I read your post daily, so I think you should keep posting. It should not have impact if position for time being is in red. It also play a role in learning.
Thanks for sharing your work again.
Mo change in signal. Stop moved to 43.02 on closing basis.
If I may suggest paper trading your system and see where you are reading your take wrong. Improve your system it will give you confidence, look what are draw backs when in a trade, how much pull back is OK. I m trading with 1to 3% daily gain goal with same concept.
By the way if you start with $ 250 and make only 5% every day and take 28 days no trading. Your account will balloon to $ 4,323,145. It is consistency which could make you rich. Good luck and happy trading.
How we could measure impact of Fed shrinking balance sheet?
Appreciate any input. I was thinking it will be very big deal, it seems yesterday non event. May be I am wrong. Sell the news and buy the event kind of phenomena?
Thanks.