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Yes, I've known Grannus for a while. They've had some bad luck over the years with EGMI and BONE. I got taken and so did many others with EGMI back in the day, it wasn't Grannus's fault. BONE no different, IR can only do so much. What Grannus does well is really get deep into the story and position and market it properly. This is a great story and there is reason PR and IR shouldn't be great as well which I think everyone would agree was lacking. No more horribly written PRs or unscripted Conference Calls. It won't happen overnight but they will reposition this story in a way that is needed to reach the next level of investor. I will be seeing the whole gang in NYC at the Sidoti conference in a couple weeks. This is a great story with real fundamentals, it just needs a little lipstick. Remember the Doc converted $1 million in debt into equity at $1.83.
CK Cooper is a mostly oil and gas investment bank. For anything not in this arena they throw it against the wall of investors/funds that they know and they see what sticks. Unfortunately what sticks are the gross and sticky investors with gross and sticky terms. This is what you get in the land of OTCBB. Unlike most companies, SPIN doesn't need to do a deal, especially one that isn't inline with shareholders interests. I am happy to wait for the right deal whether that is another month or another year.
Irrational Expectations are always the problem with message boards filled with people that don't understand the underlying business model. No disrespect but If you are really expecting 8c in Q1 2012, please just sell your stock now and get it over with. The company said in pretty certain terms on the last CC that Q1 2012 will be very similar to Q4 2011 which makes sense but you need to understand their business to understand this. The company is currently in organic growth mode which is nothing more then a function of their settlement income. So as the settlement income grows their revenues and income rise. The settlement income through Q4 2011 and probably through most of Q1 2012 was coming from Texas (2 facilities). It takes 12 months for one of these new facilities to start kicking off settlement income. The company launched 4 new florida facilities late Q1 2011 - Q3 2011, and those facilities will start kicking off settlement income starting mid Q2 2012 (ie probably right now). So we will likely see the next jump in organic growth start to kick in Q2 2012 and in a big big way in Q3 2012. So you could have a scenerio where Q1 2012 is 3-4c, Q2 2012 4-6c, Q3 2012 7-8c, Q4 2012 8-9c. On its way to basically doubling that again in 2013. And if this type of rational and realistic growth rate doesn't get you excited given the stock is at 1.30, then you shouldn't be in the stock anyway.
Chris Lahiji and I mentioned INMG on the radio program today at MicroCapClub.
i remember hearing of him before. Thanks for sharing.
Added a few more 45-50c last couple weeks
A really good story brewing here.
SPIN: I did the first radio program for Micro Cap Club with Sean Marconi. Sean visited SPIN in Houston and also visited with the lead guy handling the rollout in Florida. It's worth a listen.
http://microcapclub.com/2012/03/micro-cap-club-radio-episode-1/
Correct it's the normal insurance tactic to intimidate the docs. It's par for the course for the business spin is in.
This was a bold and classy move by the CEO. No stock goes straight up, let it churn through the supply. Worst case is they do 30c for 2012 and best case with funding is probably north of 50c. Slap a 10 PE on the worst case scenario and its a stock price far higher then the current one. And god forbid SPIN gets funded and we get a respectable multiple. When you have these dynamics you have a stock that continues to meander higher over time for no reason more then: There isn't a reason to sell it.
wow classy indeed
Most micro caps have 90 days to file their 10K (annual report) and 45 days to file their 10Q's (Q1, Q2, Q3 results) from the end of the quarter. Some micro caps that are uplisted on the NYSE AMEX and Nasdaq have more aggressive (quicker) guidelines. So as it relates to SPIN, they have until March 31st to file their 10K.
Most of those targets were put on when the stock was $1.75+, and most were put on by firms that will never ever lower a price target ;) Albeit Wunderlich is the most reputable one of the bunch as they were one of the first firms to cover GTAT and a few others. I think there is 50% upside in the stock here in the near term (next 3 months) as the company announces some new orders for Defense, LED, etc towards the backend of this quarter thus providing the next data point for growth. The company puts out a couple 5-6c EPS quarters by Nov with an increased growth curve into 2013 and it could certainly be $2+ by that time. All it takes is one of their end markets to get hot and this name will catch a multiple (20x(ish)) which is basically what the analysts are saying as well.
Congrats to SPIN investors. 2012 should be even better.
I met the CEO last week for lunch. His goal is to make this a $100m revenue business in a couple years. The inflection quarter is going to be this coming one (cal Q1 2012) as they expect some contract wins via defense and nuclear and production decisions from sapphire LED customers in Feb-March. The real revenue boost will occur in cal Q2 2012 (fiscal Q1 2013). If it wasn't for the Insider Selling that is coming from retiring personnel the stock would probably still be in the mid 1's. Overall I think the story reverberates very well with investors. All you need is one of their end markets to get hot and TPCS will catch a multiple. I would expect by Aug 2012 the stock will better reflect the execution of the company.
The numbers are pretty easy to figure out once you have the gross revenue
Net revenue will be 52% of gross revenue, and COGS will be ~22% of gross revenue. Take out 300k/qtr in SGA and interest expense and you got your net.
so
$3 million gross revenue
$1.56 million Net revenue
$660k COGS
$900k Gross Profit
$300k SGA
$600k Net
Best way to do it is to take debt forgiveness out and add back the one time litigation expense, 306-156+310 = 460k income or .026 EPS was the real number for Q2 which is still very good.
Facilities open and corresponding EPS for 2011:
Q1 2011: 2 facilities, 0.017 EPS
Q2 2011: 3.3 facilities, 0.026 EPS
Q3 2011: 4.66 facilities, ?
Q4 2011: ??
Each facility ramps differently and is more a function of cash available to ramp, then the demand. My guess is Q3 comes in around 0.035.
Again one of the worst things is to have expectations that are too high.
The thing that changes the game big time is if they can get a debt financing/credit line deal done.
its in the Q's and K...basically the worst case scenario is already built in to the stock as the company is fighting to get ~2.2m shares back that is already counted in the current OS of 17.4m.
Worst case: OS stays the same at 17.4m
Best case: OS drops to ~15.2m shares out
Most likely case: Mediation..company lets them keep half to 2/3 or some amount just to make them go away, OS drops to 16.5-17m, puts leak out provisions on that stock, and life goes on.
this will be their coming out party http://www.ldmicro.com/
They are on the list
they don't want to toot their horns too loud until the rest of the stupid frivolous lawsuits are behind them (hopefully by December) so the story is squeaky clean for the street.
In Feb 2011 the company was on a 6c EPS run rate, now its 14c....with the growth and operating margin, it will play very well to retail/institutional ears.
all of them if i'm not mistaken are litigation stemming from the shell and its previous management. In the two remaining cases the company is trying to clawback ~2.4 million shares which are already figured into the outstanding shares.
They would have earned 627k (.036 EPS) if it wasn't for that 310k attorney bill they had to expense during the quarter. Not too many companies I know that do 1.25m revs and earn 627k. A shame they had to take the whole amount this quarter cuz it would have been a blowout.
Numbers out
Revs: $1.25m
Income: 306k
Of interest, there was an extra $310k in attorney expenses lumped into this quarter.
During the three months ended June 30, 2011, the Company incurred $556,745 of operating, general and administration expenses compared to $150,691 for the same period in 2010. The increase in expenses is attributable in part to an increase in legal fees. On March 10, 2008, Kent Carasquero, Leslie Lounsbury, Riverside Manitoba, Inc. and Tyeee Capital Consultants, Inc. filed suit against the Company, Richard Specht, Rene Hamouth, Hamouth Family Trust, William R. Dunavant, and William R. Dunavant Family Holdings, Inc., which legal proceeding is described in more detail above under “Note 10” of the unaudited condensed financial statements. A law firm jointly represented the Company and certain other defendants in the suit. Management reasonably believed that another defendant to the suit was taking responsibility for the entire legal bill. Recently, however, the law firm notified the Company that it was jointly responsible for the outstanding bill. Based on this new information, the Company has included this liability of approximately $310,000 on the balance sheet at June 30, 2011 and in operating, general and administration expenses for the three months ended June 30, 2011. The Company is evaluating the accuracy and validity of this bill and the Company’s obligations under the bill. Further, in May 2011, the Court awarded the Company $79,477 in attorneys’ fees on the claims that it prevailed on at trial, and Mr. Carasquero’s appeal of the suit was dismissed in June 2011. The Company did not include the $79,477 judgment in the accompanying financial statements for the three month period ended June 30, 2011. The increase in expenses for the period is also attributable to an increase in consulting fees and the issuance of options to officers and directors as executive compensation.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1066764/000114420411047256/v231848_10q.htm
correct, I have a couple month lag in my model to be more conservative. Basically gives them leeway if they need to hold back a bit on cash outlays for whatever reason (like they did in Q1).
they said 2mm gross revenue, they report net revenue
My guess
Q2: Revs $1,120,000.00 Income $395,000.00 (0.022 EPS)
Q3: Revs $1,380,000.00 Income $520,000.00 (0.030 EPS)
The great thing about SPIN is once you have an idea on Gross revs the rest is very predictable. Net revs easy to figure, margins are predictable, and SGA will be pretty stable ($250k/qtr to be conservative). So you can guestimate pretty well.
Unlike 99% of businesses.
while you guys have been complaining like a bunch of odd lotters i've been buying the last few weeks
churning nicely
10 day average volume over 500k shares/day..it's amazing when you look back just 6 months how interest has spiked. DB conference in mid feb followed by wedbush in march.
4 Stocks for the Aggressive Investor
http://seekingalpha.com/article/250221-4-stocks-for-the-aggressive-investor?source=hp_latest_articles
Feedback from Wedbush Securities Panel Discussion Featuring Quepasa Corp (QPSA)
http://iancassel.com/2011/01/29/feedback-from-wedbush-securities-panel-discussion-featuring-quepasa-corp-qpsa/
iBio: A True Paradigm Shift
http://iancassel.com/2011/01/24/ibio-a-true-paradigm-shift/
IBIO: Noble Financial Increases Price Target to $8
http://iancassel.com/2011/01/19/ibio-noble-financial-increases-price-target-to-8/
thats an interesting comparison. Yeah their are only 2 ways to play this space PLX or IBIO and IBIO has the better technology.
yeah that was a pretty big deal. I expect a pullback in the short term but long term (1 year) its likely heading to double digits.
Copying biotech medicine attracts more drugmakers
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70C64D20110113
Video: Talking about Learning from Losing, QPSA IBIO and others http://t.co/b9rJcAQ
Video: Talking about Learning from Losing, QPSA IBIO and others http://t.co/b9rJcAQ
Vaccine Making Plants
http://www.wsoctv.com/health/26493738/detail.html
its all good..we are one good social ipo away from taking qpsa to 15+...it will get very interesting once we know for sure on the ipos of some of the talked about companies
thats why i posted it back then so people wouldn't get too excited..people need to keep their expectations inline..it is much better to have low realistic expectations and be surprised if they beat then the other way around....i expect that we'll see the ramp up in social game revenues in Q2 2011...i think we can exit Q1 at a 100k/month run rate, and exit Q2 at a $300-400k/month run rate and ramp aggressively from their...people also need to remember that most of the revenues in Q4 2010 through Q1 2011 will be from already signed dsm deals...so I would expect flat revenues for the next two quarters...and all of the above is enough to keep the stock humming along....the "rah rah irrational crowd" is just as harmful as "dumb bashers"