Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
In short not true. CEO even admitted this after the 6 month results were put out. Another company just put out placebo results that were positive even in the most severe patient population at over 6 months. Be patient. We'll all have fully controlled results in 2 years. Open label has certainly showed a positive trend which is rare in and of itself
The problem wasn't the score change from the 6 month mark to the 9 month mark it was the number of patients that benefited the 1st half of the group versus the second half and the reason I started hearing was maybe a small batch of patients could have a different type of dementia in the second group.
We'll get more data soon and all are praying the trial continues to recruit well.
Not familiar as to how bryostatin could impact those genes. As for volume, likely more just because share price is a quarter of what it was.
From what we saw at 9 months, the data wasn't as good as 6 months and I don't buy some of the explanation as to why that might have been. In either event, it isn't controlled so when it reads out it certainly won't open in triple digits.
I'm highly hopeful of the drug. Never bought in to the short arguments. Definitely feel its the leader in the alternative AD space. SPA with the FDA could be huge. Trial is recruiting well considering the attacks. Long, long time before we know what we have as far as an approvable drug IMO. Hope the stock has room to run but its been a roller-coaster for sure.
Interesting
Lots of messes out there. Got one approval today though. Step in the right direction
Approval was expected. The safety isn't the best but no doubt it does slow decline. Still hoping for better and safer.
We'll know a bit more when the 12 month OLE data is published soon. Until then its hard to know what type of valuation should be given before P3s read out down the road. Total agree that the company is the clear leader in the alternative MOA AD space at this time and that their target audience is much larger than most competitors.
Probably helps keep PH inbalance wo would help with a lot of things I suppose
When the body gets desensitized and loses its ability to healthily process sugar as we are intaking many fold the amount of sugar into our bodies we have been designed for, the repercussions impact bodily process across the board. No doubt AD and other CNS issues included. Whether that's due to insulin resistance or a weakened immune system or another process, I do not know but it obviously plays a role IMO. I do every thing I can to manage blood glucose and to better my immunity as I get older.
Looks like the FDA wanted a look at both and required it in the SPA as they have with other approved FDA AD drugs. That's the one thing here, if endpoints are hit, we know it will be approved. Interesting to me is the large percentage of patients it has shown to improve test scores, at least up until this point. That isn't the case for most. Happy New Year!
You could be right but it will be no more than a 7 week trial of no more than 2 dozen patients that are likely already patients with the same children's hospital. Not sure how that could be ruled out unless they don't start it by spring
FragileX will be small, open label, and a ready made group from Dupont most likely. Will take less than a year. Now when will it start? No one knows
Looks like shareholder's meeting in February. Company needs shareholder approval of November financing due to it creating over 20% dilution if all was converted into shares. I suppose we could all vote no but then the company doesn't get the $15 million dollars. Unless the company is willing to give us an idea what they plan to spend that money on or start another trial, I vote HELL NO. If we don't have complete AD data by then, no reason to rush the vote
Not like it would have a month ago. Maybe if announced in conjunction with an additional trial but my guess is not a lot at this point in time.
I doubt we would get one this week regardless. No telling when.
Its possible. You never know
I would like to see the secondary data points along the way both before and after the 30 day pause before I think to much on why it failed. Still a lot to be learned and potentially the dosing trial may shed some light
Lots of buying this afternoon. Hoping something is brewing. Merry Christmas all
It is what it is. Doesn't worry me at this point. Maybe make it more likely they sell? Who knows?
Figured I would leave this here. I post both the good and the bad. Seems someone found some overlap on slides from a preclinical fragileX paper. Alkon responds to the author that the Doctor responsible for the slides admits it and that the paper wasn't based on the slides, nor was the data in the conclusions. It is what it is at this point. Not sure how much difference it makes but certainly not a positive.
https://pubpeer.com/publications/4A47A3C394D93327696EC695385FA4
It's possible. Lot's of decisions to be made. It's one of the reasons I do think its possible the cash could be returned. I doubt it, but could make it possible
Wise move most likely
Yeah 10b5-1 planned sales to cover tax obligations as you say. Ended up being more shares than they would have liked due to the low share price I suppose
Catchy!
My post was sarcastic although I've read for years that there is no placebo effect by message board savants for AD.
BP could be interested for for a variety of reasons, either AD or additional indications if they think they there is any promise. Certainly not going put a high value here but then again they don't have to. Long shot to be honest. I'm hoping FragileX
Maybe BP is interested in a drug that can help both dosed and placebo patients!
Almost exactly my thoughts. Liquidation aside, I would take a little pump job, sell, and then monitor any execution towards AD or other trials to re-enter in the future. I said 6 years ago that the quickest route to success would be FragileX so I do hope they run a trial. I strongly believe they should attempt a liquid formulation in such an age group and will also be disappointed if synthetic isn't used.
Unfortunately unlikely.
It's possible
Lol. Talk about misdirection.
Its 38 million and they just confirmed last week.
Never heard of that because it isn't true.
Just because AD drugs fail, don't mean they are smoke and mirrors. You might want to check out some others for that. If it was smoke and mirrors, company would be claiming drug halted and started to bend AD back in the right direction. Company failed trial endpoints. It's that simple and exactly what they claimed.
It certainly did not meet primary endpoints.
What is being debated is when will the company need cash again. If we run 2 trials, pay off the current trial and dosing trial and get bioequivalence they would be raising money in 12 to 15 months, likely before any additional trial readouts. You seem to assume none of this timing was taken into consideration. I think your distaste for the lenders is coloring your judgment on the matter and you know I mean no disrespect and I know you are a believer in the science. They raised the money knowing the likelihood of failure but you are highly likely right that the PE lenders kept the share price suppressed as they have several times in the past, exactly what they would do if we needed money in another 12 months but the share price will be much lower then than it was last month and the dilution even worse. Jmho
It's possible and that would be my hope for my investment and maybe even best for the drug prospects. There's a reason independent entities are studying the drug all over the planet. I would prefer the IP in the hands of someone willing to try additional indications.
Exactly. If the company is determined to move forward, its certainly looks like a much better deal today than it did in November. Probably not overly helpful to the shares I still own however. No reason for further dilution until at least some type of readout on an additional small trial indication. Would be about the only thing that would move the needle at this point if this is the direction they go.
It could and would only be about 10 years behind everyone that claimed PA from the TGA and after the splicing and dicing significant numbers of the AD population play out exactly like some predicted it would.
I agree with all this but they aren't going to ever be able to raise money until they have a successful trial now (unless from the same lenders in the same fashion) and that isn't coming in 2023 so the money will have to stretch for more than a year. I still think only positive outcome for shareholders is if anyone is interested in kicking 10 million on top of the roughly 40 million in cash and package the deal to sell. I just think that's an unlikely outcome. At this point in time there is zero chance of anything along these lines happening because they don't even have all the data and likely won't for a couple months. No decisions to be made before then (and shouldn't be!) is my guess and I'm pretty sure the share price will be no higher than today. Hope I'm wrong of course. FragileX is a fairly large indication and my guess is its next up. Personally I wouldn't run that trial unless I had an oral, synthetic dosing and that could ramp up the cost.
You are 100% correct that there is every reason for the share price to remain suppressed so the lenders can get as many shares as possible. That's why folks don't like convertible debt. Certainly doesn't end up being a "win" for them though as the share remains flat or worse. Does mean they lose less than the rest of us however and never had as much risk on the table to be sure. Of course they didn't have the same opportunity to sell at 1.75 that we did either I guess.