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As long as folks understand that the CEO was marketing this drugs for years, even before he was CEO here. He's had a long time to increase sales. It hasn't happened. This month's type C FDA meeting on the 26th will take some time to even hear back. That means less than a year left on the patent if the company's own filings are correct. I'm just projecting o/s based on the company paying their 13 monthly installments with shares as the 10k says is required. They have to pay with either shares or cash. They don't want to spend the cash they have I would imagine. If they have delayed the payments then its just a matter of time before the dilution occurs. Can someone tell me how they pay back the 15 million convertible note and the other 10.2 million note that is due in yearly installments without burning cash or significant dilution? I mean CEO videos are great but this isn't a start up situation. The drug was approved in 2012. That's why the patent runs out next year.
Only in the message board world when a poster states they could see the price move from current to over 2.25 would they be considered a short. Don't be the last man standing is my opinion.
How are they paying the monthly installments from last summer's note then? This is from the last quarterly filed page 23. If I'm wrong show me where. I'll admit it.
We are required to redeem the Series A Preferred Shares in 13 equal monthly installments, commencing on November 1, 2023. The amortization payments due upon such redemptions are payable, at our election, in cash at 107% of the Installment Redemption Amount (as defined in the Certificate of Designations), or subject to certain limitations, in shares of common stock valued at the lower of (i) the Conversion Price then in effect and (ii) the greater of (A) 80% of the average of the three lowest closing prices of the common Stock during the thirty trading day period immediately prior to the date the amortization payment is due or (B) the lower of $0.396, which is 20% of the “Minimum Price” (as defined in Nasdaq Stock Market Rule 5635) on the date of the Nasdaq Stockholder Approval (as defined below) or such lower amount as permitted, from time to time, by the Nasdaq Stock Market, subject to adjustment for stock splits, stock dividends, stock combinations, recapitalizations or other similar events.
I think it will be around 8 million shares by the end of the week based on my opinion from the filings. It should grow by roughly a million shares per month the rest of the year. If the 2.25 warrants were to get cashed in this year there could be up to 25 million by the end of the year so my guess is somewhere between 15-25 million by the end of 2024 unless another money raise. Jmho
All this and still raising funds a year at a time by paying 1.2 million dollars to the financing agent for a $15 million dollar deal which includes rachet down provisions for future raises and 7 million warrant shares at what was a 5 million market cap level at the time. This is separate from the 10+ million dollar note also having to be paid in yearly million+ dollar installments. Latest financing has to be paid back the 1st of each month all year long. What a great BOD. Is this tweeter the same one claiming the stock is trading at 1/5 cash value? Lmao
Per the filings 7 million warrant shares become exercisable at 2.25 so that would be an area to look at closely for a large amount of shares to potentially become available just above imo.
More from the most recently available quarter filings. For those claiming they know what the share count is now, just take a guess at how many were converted on November 1, December 1, January 1, February 1 and later this week on March 1...all until the 15 million summer financing is accounted for. This is aside from the other 10+ million dollar note they owe on that requires payments of approximately 1.5 million this year and over 2.7 million next year, and additional after that. Anyone claiming the company is trading at 1/5 of cash on hand hasn't closely read or understood the actual filings IMO.
"Series A Preferred Stock
The terms of the Series A Preferred Shares are as set forth in the form of Certificate of Designations. The Series A Preferred Shares will be convertible into shares of Common Stock (the “Conversion Shares”) at the election of the holder at any time at an initial conversion price of $2.25 (the “Conversion Price”). The Conversion Price is subject to customary adjustments for stock dividends, stock splits, reclassifications and the like, and subject to price-based adjustment in the event of any issuances of Common Stock, or securities convertible, exercisable or exchangeable for Common Stock, at a price below the then-applicable Conversion Price (subject to certain exceptions). We are required to redeem the Series A Preferred Shares in 13 equal monthly installments, commencing on November 1, 2023. The amortization payments due upon such redemptions are payable, at our election, in cash at 107% of the Installment Redemption Amount (as defined in the Certificate of Designations), or subject to certain limitations, in shares of common stock valued at the lower of (i) the Conversion Price then in effect and (ii) the greater of (A) 80% of the average of the three lowest closing prices of the Common"
Also for those claiming enough cash for 2024, the filing claims just the opposite. Page 27 from the latest available filing. This was after the summer capital raise.
Going Concern
Petros has experienced net losses and negative cash flows from operations since our inception. As of September 30, 2023, the Company had cash of approximately $18.0 million, positive working capital of $16.4 million, an accumulated deficit of approximately $99.2 million and used cash in operations during the nine months ended September 30, 2023, of approximately $5.4 million. The Company does not currently have sufficient available liquidity to fund its operations for at least the next 12 months. These conditions and events raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year after the date that these consolidated financial statements are issued."
Plus the placement agent got well over a million dollars of the placement. I'm guessing roughly 8 million shares and around 13 million cash by the end of March. Just a guess based on the filings.
https://www.sec.gov/ixviewer/ix.html?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1815903/000141057823002502/tmb-20230930x10q.htm#CONSOLIDATEDSTATEMENTSOFCHANGESINSTOCKHO
I live at the beach and went to church as well. Critique the company filings
You figured out what the actual outstanding share count will be with the 10K in March? you figured out from the filings, why the share account hasn't adjusted as a last September? you understand that there is a 10 plus million dollar note besides these convertibles with part coming day in 2024, 25, and 2026? You read the going concern statement yet that states , the company does not have funds available to make it through the end of 2024? All this directly from the company itself in their filings
Or something read from the quarterly filings
Per that PR company burned through around 5.5 million dollars in Q2 and Q3 of last year. We'll see what Q4 burn rate was shortly. It's the patent life expiring that is of concern. Hopefully company can create one more good share price run. They've done it in the past. Don't be the last man standing is my guess.
Who cares who wrote it? You posted a misleading tweet and I called out why
Read the filings. That's all
It's a free country. I go by filings, especially when the "more" sales equals more losses and a patent is running out. Filings are legally binding.
You mean post 397 for the tweet?
That's what it claimed based on cash as of a YEAR AGO, the latest update which was from September 30 showed already below 18 million and lost 4.8 million as of that quarter. We'll get another update with the 10k and know better. Regardless when sales are 1.6 million and losses 2-3 times that amount per QUARTER bragging on cash runway seems useless to me, especially in light of a sunsetting patent. How many times have they raised money since they reverse merged into a Nasdaq listing which they had to reverse split to remain. That's why the share count is low
I said the tweet that was posted here
Well let's see. The tweet you posted claims insider buys. Can we get a link to the last time an insider bought shares from the SEC filings? You mention ED numbers for 2028 and say the drug was patent protected, when I've pointed out for quite some time the patent only last til April of 2025 so I think that's misleading. As for cash position, it was less than 18 million as of September 30 last year and were losing 4.8 million dollars per quarter. Even is losses lessen a bit, it wouldn't be enough to make it through this year so guaranteeing money through 2024 is highly suspect. Stendra initial sales when approved were nearly 30 million a year and got worse as it went so the big pharma owner threw it to the curb and now sales are under 8 million a year with a sunsetting patent.
Don't be the last man standing is my take. GL
If posting facts = "short" what does failing to read filings or financials yet create misleading tweets =?
I mean the post asks to "break his/her DD". Well that's not too hard to do.
Attack the facts,no reason to question my intentions. How much is a patent for a drug with scant sales worth in 13 months ehen expired? I've been pointing this out ever since they spun off in a reverse merger a few years ago. Sales are terrible and the company bleeds money. This happens once or twice a year when folks think they've hit the lottery. I've never said the stock can't move, just to not be the last man standing. Didn't realize posting on a weekend was a crime. Nothing I've posted is incorrect. Saying I'm a short is.
Why would posting facts from filings draw accusations?
Got a grand that says I've never shorted a stock in my life if you want to play
And now folks know some facts from filings and not a pump from social media
The only thing it has is a drug with decreasing sales and a patent that expires in 13 months. They lost 4.8 million in the last reported quarter on only 1.6 million in sales. Just keeping it real
I don't have one. I'm just saying the fundamentals are horrible on a drug that's coming off patent so don't be the last man holding. That's all
They can. That's why smart folks sell the "news" because most the time it isn't really news
Never shorted a stock in my life
Yes but some folks should become familiar with how the financing works in the filings
Per the lasted reported quarter ending September 30, cash was already below 18 million. That quarter sales were 1.6 million on which they lost 4.8 million dollars so one can only guess what cash is when reported next month. That isn't 25 months of cash. It isn't even a year's cash most likely. That's why money gets raised most years. Patent runs out in April next year. I'm just saying about once or twice a year it's "deja vu" so folks should realize that. JMHO
That's the problem. Folks read PRs and not legally binding SEC filings
Check and see how much cash they burned last year or how many years in a row they've had to raise cash.
25 months of cash? Read the 10k. Lmao
Stendra has less sales by far today than when 1st approved. Its patent life runs out in 13 months. Sell any pump would be my guess
Looks like additional good news today but the neurofilament results we have been imminently expecting are on track for some time this quarter, which could mean another 5 or 6 weeks. The question remains of how good those results are (or aren't) and if the company raises money before or after. JMHO
Not really. What's telling is their drug goes off patent next April and sales are worse now than when Stendra was first approved. Don't be the last man standing
Ha ha!
Expires in 14 months per 10k. GL in Tahiti
Doesn't the patent run out in only a couple years?
Some reasonably good results on Sava today so at least a few alternative plays still out there. Hoping bryostatin gets another shot on moderate AD as it seems to be the only one with a shot at halting the disease. Looks like the MS trial kicks off this month. I'm not in any of the AD plays at the moment in full disclosure.
Setting aside it was an open label study with folks promoting the drug on social media in a way that is likely not beneficial, the real problem is the trial design has potentially set the final top line results up for failure. Today's results continued to enforce this thesis. The current trials include patients with MMSE between 16-26. The bottom half of those scores are the moderate ones who scored even worse than what was to be expected (-11) on today's data. We don't know how many will be in each group but it would seem unlikely that even if the mild patient group stabilizes as we saw today, it would overcome the moderate patients in a stat significant way. There is no doubt in my mind that the two groups scores will be broken out in a pre-specified but post hoc fashion that will satisfy many but could be piled on by naysayers and could take awhile for the FDA to sort things out, especially considering it will take the 2nd trial an additional 6 months to complete.
I am hopeful that the mild group is highly stat significant and that the FDA will allow SAVA to go down this path since there are nearly 2000 patients total in the 2 trials, making the mild group significant in numbers. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. JMHO