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My guess is eventually it will end up in the 10-15 million share range on that registration. The only chance of cash distribution is if no one wants to move forward with the drug for any indication, which isn't likely to happen. I realize that's not what most of us want but that's the most likely route that the company has shown us they are willing to take in the past. That's what I base my judgment from. Going to be a long ride here unless management hints at a cash distribution or they package what they have with the cash and sell the whole thing. That would be more l likely than them ever buying back shares IMO. 80% chance this dwindles down and ends up being split again as they attempt to run additional trials. That's my odds anyway.
We've been hearing soon since "designed to fail fast" 6 years ago. Maybe in another 6 years they will have approval for a much smaller slicr of the pie. If they had gotten our results they would claim the 1st drug to ever halt AD! I realize you are more realistic than most. Me as well. Realism gets you branded something that many of us are not on message board however.
I certainly agree with parts of what you say and not saying you couldn't be right
That could be fun. Maybe change endpoints and call a success!
Katalyst has always been involved per 10ks and recent PR said from current investors. How much money do folks think that 100 millions or so investment has made them? They literally would have been better in any other company over the last decade, much less the AD space but they believed in Alkon.
I understand what you're saying. I simply don't believe the extreme case of the lenders as I think this bleeds out with additional trials depending on additional study data. I think it was a heads they win big and tails likely a small loss over the long run. Unfortunate either way.
I don't understand that theory Battle. The company made this deal in order to move forward if results were bad. They have money and options. The real question is if Dupont and Cleveland Clinic want to move forward. If not and if nothing can be data mined, that's our only hope of getting the cash back to shareholders. Otherwise the lenders will slowly sell their shares to get whatever money back while earning a nice interest rate on the shares they would still hold. I think those of us who would like to get some money back for our shares will be disappointed and those that think the "evil" lenders will end up coming out to the good will realize that not the case over time either. JMHO
This is the highly likely outcome. There's the chance that neither Dupont or Cleveland Clinic don't want to run trials and the lenders behind the company think that their best avenue is to return the cash as to get made whole as much as possible but most likely they will find a path to keep the doors open. The whole convertible dilution and eventually a reverse split is all very likely in the future as they await any type of hopeful trial results of future trials. As shareholder's most would likely prefer the quick cash but the company is set up as a treatment for CNS diseases so that's likely what they will chose to focus on. I say 80% chance it plays out exactly as your post says. 20% at the most that they refund the cash if the data mining from this trial shows nothing consequential.
It's hard to know with any certainty what the plan will be until full results are known. This registration is for something that would take place over time . I understand your thinking. Just no way for us to know at this point and doubt we get word on AD data or dosing trial in the next month and the specific data could make a difference. May be a few months. Hard to say.
I guess the simple answer is its the dilution from the preferred share deal.
Cyosol had the best response. S3 was to register the preferences shares to common over time. Would seemingly make it likely the company marches forward data mining the AD trial and commencing trials for the additional indications
With no debt and 40 million cash its a totally different situation. Preferred would convert as per S3 filing.
Yeah because the mean hasn't changed must doesn’t mean no one had a significant change. Its an average. For all we know half the trial was up +5 and the other half -3.5. Also the sites would only have 3 to 5 patients.
We don't know which route the company will take. We don't know for sure what Dupont or Cleveland clinic will do. We don't whether they will trial synthetic. Too many questions. Odds are share price dwindles while we wait. Odds are it doesn't recover any time soon. Odds are there will be tax loss selling. I'm sure they will continue going through the data before any decisions are made. It's not a good place for shareholders to be any time for the near future IMO...and yes I still own shares. Just being honest
It's more of a preventative thing so I can't swear one way or another
And of course that's not how it works. You don't just call clinics and ask if a placebo controlled drug trial is producing results.
Company raised the money from original lenders with little risk on that investment. It stinks. It also stinks that they may move forward with additional indications because of this instead of just closing up shop, but its totally understandable given the preclinical work and backing of outside organizations. It's going to be a very long haul if they indeed go that route. Those are the 2 choices they will have to make. One will take a very long, if ever path to make an investment return, the other we'll triple our money by the spring. I think choice number 2 is certainly the longer of the 2 shots.
I think sava has a decent shot. If I was them I might be concerned after seeing us show a positive placebo response even after 6 months considering their initial trial had no placebo however.
I don't think any of these alternative plays have a better than 50/50 shot. As Perry said, he likes to see newer drugs that attempt to aid the body's own defense mechanisms instead of just targeting plaques. Of course we know of supplements and healthy lifestyle choices that can do this as well so its believable that a drug could potentially do this better. As we've now seen with a few recent alternate plays, they're no miracles. Some relief perhaps but not hugely above current SOC. Maybe SAVA will be the one. Clearly the leader in a very failed space. Jmho
Agreed Novice. Take care.
I will certainly be interested to see how it works for both indications. Certainly won't have any results on those next year. Will be interesting to see what post hoc says but hard to see an avenue forward on that front. If they go ahead and gain bioequivalence that would be the 1st test I would think.
I guess we'll go down as a trivia question of what is the 1st drug to ever produce a higher score in AD cognition 3 times but likely to not move forward
Wouldn't be my preference. Will be a long trudge.
Without being able to look at it too closely seems something to do with registering any conversion shares from the convertible debt maybe? I have a hard time reading these filings in my phone and I'm on the road this weekend. I'm sure someone will chime in.
Is there a link? I haven't seen one one the nasdaq site
I do. Every day. My doc recommend about 6 months ago. Twice a day
Hope so Mac
Will be interesting to see how it plays out now and may or may not be in a good way. Seems the lenders would want to get anything they can for the IP and cash and move on but you never know. Obviously want to see complete data from this trial but certainly won't for at least a month and likely longer. Tax loss selling always a factor as well.
Who knows how it plays out? Hoping plan B is refunding cash to holders. I'll skip selling for another ED drug lol.
I agree . Normally a slow bleed. Sound decision. I guess the rough thing here has been the company's lack of a "fake it in hopes to make it" attitude. I certainly respect that but didn't allow for anyone to take anything off the table along the way other than the original trial. Seems other companies are extremely good at this and I certainly hope that one or more is successful.
Would love to see someone pick up this drug and move it forward, even at cash value or less. We have no expertise in FragileX or MS and an early stage trial for AD would cost a fortune. Either way thanks for posting your expertise over the years. High respect and much appreciated. Take care.
PR emphasizes 4 bucks cash on balance sheet. Lets just hope they do the right thing.
Thanks man. It happens. I've lost before of course. I feel bad for Alkon. Long career and hopefully some of his research can be beneficial for patients at some point down the line.
Yeah really disappointed. At least folks that are selling out have been ablevto get upwards towards 2 bucks. Could slow bleed but I I think a real shot of getting more than 2 bucks in the future so still holding. Have always understood potential to lose it all. These things are tough and to date not a single alternative AD play has resulted in approval. Let's hope someone, anyone can move the needle
That's what I'm hoping for and PR certainly made the per share cash clear. Maybe they will go in that direction
Certainly did not get a statistically significant improvement and especially after 2 cycles looks bad. Win some and lose some. Apparently we lost
Looks like it. Out of town. What a kick in the nuts
Red It's the hydrangea in those pills that make it so effective. Ask me how I know lol. Just buy hydrangea capsules dirt cheap. Take 3 one day a week. You'll never have another kidney stone problem.
It is. We are either at the point of rocking the AD world or we have spent 5 years proving there is a substantial placebo effect at 3+ months in the severe AD population with all our preclinical modalities simply coincidental. We'll know soon.
Bingo on it being more available
Probably an outside contractor with no knowledge but it is odd
Yepp
I wouldn't use the term extremely unlikely. I think the odds increase if we haven't heard anything by monday. I would never use "extremely likely" in an AD trial no matter the case
I believe that to be so. That said I don't think the company would sit on top of good news for an extended period of time as it would invite insider trading. It could however possibly help line up how the results would be presented. If we were talking about a pivotal AD trial, then that might be a different situation but a 100 patient 2B trial would not necessarily be material if positive but certainly material if failure. That's my take after reading about this for the last several months on a competitor's MB.