is...probably trying to buy a stock
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TDA just (I think just in the last few minutes) their rates to $6.95. I don't even know what they've normally been because I've been paying $7/trade because of relationship they had with my former employer.
From the website...
“There is an effort underway in our industry to redefine value. While some are leading with price, our clients tell us it’s much more than that,” said Tim Hockey, president and chief executive officer of TD Ameritrade. “They have told us time and again that value is delivered via rich experiences that prioritize flexibility and client choice, coupled with a simple, straightforward price. We have an award-winning client offering, plus tremendous scale. With our pending acquisition of Scottrade on the horizon, we have a unique opportunity to enhance that experience even further with lower pricing for all of our clients.”
I'm also going to PDAC next week.
Way to stick it out bb. OPCO was a favorite of mine back in 06 when I started the OPCO board here on IHub. I rode it from ~$.50 to $1.50 and sold near the top in 2007. Glad to see if it's making another run.
Toilet(s) that won't flush. We've got at least one toilet (maybe two) in our house that only flushes about 1/3 of the time. It seems like there is not enough suction power to completely drain the bowl. The "guts" of the toilet have all been replace, so I don't think that is the problem. A guy at HD told us that we should use a wire hanger and try to clear out the holes around the rim to see if they are clogged (which my wife did), but it didn't help. I would guess that the toilet is original to the home (1979).
Any thoughts on how to solve the problem.
Nelson, you need some DSX in there. It's the highest quality dry bulk guy.
Yeah...let's just say the ride home wasn't a fun one though. Haha
1manband...it's clear that you know what you're talking about and know the met coal market well. I would argue that everything has a price (though sometimes this price can be $0 as has been the case for some met coal mines lately). With the move in the currency since the mine closed, I think the cash costs for Grand Cache mine are probably close to $100-$110/mt. With those kind of cash costs (and maybe lower if locals are willing to take a pay cut in order to get their job back), they can generate some decent cash, even with the current met coal prices. If met coal goes back to $90 again, then yeah, it was a bad idea, but i think that long-term met coal prices should be ~$135. This isn't really a huge mine anyway...they only produced 1.1 million tons the last full year of operations. I think the mine is probably worth $100-$150 MM to a buyer.
Yeah, they loved having me there when I visited them on the trip for my first wedding anniversary. My wife, on the other hand, didn't like that they had a 3-4 hour presentation set up for me!! haha
The guys there are great, they just haven't been able to really get things to accelerate!
Valuation website
Is anyone aware of a website where you can chart valuation multiples of a company over time? When I worked for the big firms I had several software options in order to do this, but I have no idea what to do now.
Ourpets?? That's a blast from the past. I visited company HQ on a trip for our QST anniversary 10 years ago (in retrospect I don't recommend doing that).
You have to be opportunistic when it comes to buying mining companies/assets. This is how I was able to buy TECK in the $US4s and WHC-AU at A $.60. I've done pretty well on those met foal plays. I sold the last of my TECK a few weeks ago at ~$26. It was a great run!
I agree Nelson and hweb. IMO institutional investors will pay a far higher multiple for the carnosyn part of the business than the contract manufacturing part. The focus should be on carnosyn and the outlook for that more than anything.
hweb...do you find it a little strange/vague that he said "the approaching fiscal year" instead of just saying fiscal 2018? I think someone could easily read that as the approaching/concluding fiscal year.
Wade...seriously man? Come on! It's not their fault. They didn't execute the trade in your account. Quit whining.
I said in my my message on Monday night that shipping is a terrible business. I guess it was your fault not listening to me!!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=128675382
In addition (and this is for everyone), if you're going to own a shipping stock they are almost ALL going to have a majority of their business in China. China is responsible for 50+% of global seaborne trade, so it's inevitable.
Anybody want to pitch in and buy the mine with me?
Wow...now I know things are getting crazy!
A P/E of 15, 20, 30, 50?
This is a shipping stock people! It's a terrible business. You have to buy when things are absolutely terrible and sell it when people are starting to get excited about shipping. For someone to suggest that a shipping stock should ever get a 50x multiple is absolutely crazy.
Nope, I'm still concerned, but I think there are other things to like as well. It's a small position for me, but I still want it to do well.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=127844522
I honestly can't believe that people are selling because they are reporting a day or two later than they have the last couple of quarters. In my experience, companies are more likely to report on a certain day of the week than a particular date.
I hope they report $1 EPS for the quarter!
They usually don't have to. Sometimes you'll see them do one last filing, but usually it's because they went from 5+% to 0% in a short period of time.
That's the way that I look at it too. If an insider is buying, it's always a good thing, but when the increase relative to his current holdings is small (like this one), it doesn't have quite the same effect.
Don't forget copper byproducts as well. The largest cobalt mine in the world is the copper mine Tenke Fungarume in the DRC. Overall her central African copper mines are large cobalt producers. I don't like cobalt because probably more any other metal it is a byproduct and will be mined no matter if it's economical or not.
I would argue that companies that report taxes typically trade at premiums to companies that with big NOLs. That's been my experience in looking at a lot of stocks with NOLs. Usually I penalize the company's multiple because of the NOL as a result. Also EV/EBITDA multiples are typically better for NOL companies anyway.
I don't disagree with that, but the number of miles moved by truck has been declining due to intermodal (because intermodal has killed the longer hauls). That's why you want to make sure that you are timing the cycle right.
If you're at all concerned about the economy you want to avoid trucking. Trucking stocks are typically one of the first sectors to turn down and a good leading indicator of the direction of the economy. They have also been loosing share to intermodal.
This one baffles me. Why in the world does a company need $100+ MM in cash on the balance sheet? They make most of their money from interest and unrealized gains from their investments. They've had this massive cash horde for years (I stopped checking in 2010). It had a negative Enterprise Value for most of the time before the big run last year. The EBIT margin is only 10% and their SG&A grew faster than the revenues. Something is fishy here IMO.
Just wanted to time stamp a message saying that I planned to trade CCJ for CMMC today, but couldn't get to the internet before the close. We'll see how it works out.
Nelson...SBLK is the far better buy if you're looking to buy dry bulk. I think things are lining up for SBLK to turn into something. I'd like to see a good pullback before I buys some. I like DSX best (and own a big position) but SBLK is a good one too.
What about paas and tho?
Bobwins, what is better about the Canadian stocks? I haven't noticed any difference. There is a 15 minute delay on quotes like on Yahoo, but I haven't noticed any differences between the two. The only thing I have had to get used to is entering tickers because sometimes if there is a 3 letter ticker that I'm trying to use it doesn't default to that if there is 4 letter ticker with the same first 3 letters.
Yes, you can definitely do multiple portfolios. I have only used one so far, but I just created a 2nd to make sure that you can do more than one.
I asked this a week ago, but does anyone use Google Finance portfolios? I started using them a little over a year ago when I couldn't stand the problems with Yahoo Finance anymore.
I'd say so!!
Welp, this one isn't working out very well. Down another 16% this morning. Ouch!!
I listened to the conference call tonight, and I think another key concern to watch is what happens with the the tailings dam permit. It sounds like the permit will need to be in hand by September or they will be delayed another 6 months or so at Rainy River. That will be real bad! I think that's probably why the stock was down 25+% and not down ~10%.
Anybody look at TPX today? The stock closed down 28%. Yes, they lost a big customer (21% of sales), but they lost 28% of their market cap today. I think it will likely result in some closing of some manufacturing and a step change in sales levels. I would guess that Mattress Firm is probably getting the best price in the industry and likely a lower margin customer for TPX and sales were already down 11% in 2016.
However, assuming they lost all 21% of the sales and this results in 25% of lost EBITDA (it might be more than 25%, but I'm guessing that Mattress Firm is a lower margin business), their pro forma EBITDA for 2017 will be ~$390 MM. After getting whipped today, the market cap goes to $2.6 billion + $1.6 billion in net debt. EV/EBITDA is therefore 11x.
Doing this simple math tells me this thing still isn't very cheap.
There was a reason why I became interested though. I've been reading a lot lately (maybe some time I'll post a list of a few of my favorite investing books). I'm currently reading King of Capital and it talks about how the matress business has long been a darling of private equity firms. I believe at one point, Sealy went back and forth between PE firms 7 times before it went public and Serta went back and for 3-4 times. I guess PE believes that they are good cash flowing businesses.
However, it is going to require TPX to get a lot cheaper now in order to get PE interested in my opinion.
The gold hedge looks good, but the copper hedge isn't looking that great right now. I bought some NGD today at 3.20 and already down on it. Their big copper byproducts results in a very low cash cost position. Once they get over this funding hurdle, it will become a cash flow machine (assuming that the estimates for cash costs for RR is somewhere close to what the technical report says...which is definitely being called into question today).
So you're saying that he is going to leave to start a 3rd company, or is NGD the 3rd company?
I will be back to buy more if it keeps falling. Those cash costs are crazy low and we're only talking about $100 MM shortfall for a $2 billion market cap company (before today).
What do you think about levels of support from here after the drop through $3? I think it could fall to $2.50 as the next level of support (I'm not a TA guy though).
NGD
I just purchased a 3.5% position in NGD at $3.20 (USD) in my resources account. NGD is getting whacked today because they said they had to raise the capex requirements for their Rainy River project by ~$245 MM. This will result in a $100 MM cash shortfall. They will need to raise some cash in some form to fund the last of the development. They have several non-core assets that they could sell, but I think the stock is overreacting.
While they will need to raise $100 MM, the stock has lost $387 MM in market cap. They have also announced some management changes as well (Chairman stepping down, another board member moving to chairman, and president getting moved to CEO). As long as the technical report is somewhere close to right on the cash costs for Rainy River, I think the stock will bounce back.
NGD is guiding for cash costs of $395-$435/oz and AISC of $825-$865/oz. Those are some very low costs and I think NGD will be a cash flow generation machine once RR is completed.
NGD
I just purchased a 3.5% position in NGD at $3.20 (USD) in my resources account. NGD is getting whacked today because they said they had to raise the capex requirements for their Rainy River project by ~$245 MM. This will result in a $100 MM cash shortfall. They will need to raise some cash in some form to fund the last of the development. They have several non-core assets that they could sell, but I think the stock is overreacting.
While they will need to raise $100 MM, the stock has lost $387 MM in market cap. They have also announced some management changes as well (Chairman stepping down, another board member moving to chairman, and president getting moved to CEO). As long as the technical report is somewhere close to right on the cash costs for Rainy River, I think the stock will bounce back.
NGD is guiding for cash costs of $395-$435/oz and AISC of $825-$865/oz. Those are some very low costs and I think NGD will be a cash flow generation machine once RR is completed.