is...probably trying to buy a stock
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Whether you're a Republican or Democrat...that's a great post. No one should be complaining about a wealthy person donating to charity.
Wade...
As mostly a bystander on the board, I've read almost every post since I came back to Ihub in December.
I just have to say that you need to do your own work man!
1) Quit relying on what analysts say. As a former investment analyst myself at a $50+ billion firm I can tell you that more than half of the Wall Street analysts are really bad at their job. Even the good analysts are guaranteed to be wrong in 2/3 the time.
2) Quit asking what the top posters think about the same question. KiK, SSK, and r59 probably get annoyed (at least I sure would!!) with your constant badgering and whining about the stocks that you own. Leave them alone and come to your own conclusions. It makes you look like you lack conviction.
I'm sorry if this is offensive to you, but I think it needs to be said. I also had a pretty tough weekend (I had the final round of interviews for my dream job on Wednesday and found out yesterday that I didn't get the job...in addition to $10k worth of HVAC issues I found out about on Saturday), so I'm kind of mad at the world! ;)
That's pretty good too!
Big week this week! Moved up 19 spots! It's comeback time!
Can I just use CLR? It's the same thing right?
Lime away in the overflow tube?
Can you give me a little more detail to a non plumber? Poor it in the bowlm? When? Water on or off?
This sounds like it might be the same problem that I've been having with my toilet.
What's the bucket test?
Depending on where we are in the cycle, 5.5x ebitda for a steel stock can be very expensive!
Sold my MDT today at 89.15. The stock is up ~25% in just under six months. Healthcare stocks have been strong, the stock is oversold (RSI at 76) and I've got a nice return. Now time to find something else.
I think there is still some downside to met coal prices from here. The 276-day rule in China and Cyclone Debbie double spike of prices has resulted in an increase in high-cost US production. Most of these mines that are coming back were recently idled so they are in decent shape. I wouldn't be surprised if met coal prices fell from $140, where they are today, to the $120 level in the next 3-6 months or so in order to knock out some of this US supply.
As for METC, you picked the one company I don't know well. I do know the stock is super cheap if they get the mines up and running (something like 1.5x 2020 EBITDA), but I'm not close enough to that story at this point. The management team seems a little loose in my opinion, and I would be concerned that the PE backers do something funny that hurt other shareholders.
I know the met coal guys very well. I know many of the management teams and made a killing on a big met coal bet in 2016.
DRYS- Making their investors look like fools since 2004. That includes this Seeking Alpha writer...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4082289-dryships-inc-bottom-nearing
No offense but I'm rolling my eyes right now. How can something be "real meat" if it didn't come from an animal?
Bummer...SND is killing me!
Is there such thing as a double down?
r59 - SLB
Yeah, I remain a believer in SLB. There is a lot of pessimism in the oil markets and the article you posted is a good summary of all of that pessimism. I think the Russian discussion is probably the biggest threat. When the Russians broke the potash cartel, it totally disrupted that market. While Russia is far more important to potash than it is to oil, I still think it would be a pretty big threat.
We need lower oil prices to knock out US shale production. The rate of cost delinces has slowed significantly so I expect that oil prices around $40 will have the same effect as last time, a significant slowing in drilling in the US.
SLB is clearly the global leader in oil services. I think their acquisition of Cameron will be a big positive and the timing of the acquisition was perfect (I love it when companies do that!). They have taken out a lot of costs and they will be leaner and meaner when the cycle turns. I still think SLB can go to $95-$100 over the next 9 months.
I just repurchased my shares of DSX (at $3.60) that I sold in early April at 6.17. That sell in April was awesome. We'll see how this goes this time. I like that it has held the $3.50 area so far, but it definitely got tested today. I would love a close above the 200 day ($3.57) tomorrow to help me feel a little better.
Things are setting up the right way for the dry bulk industry. 1) Demand has rebounded this year, SBLK expects that demand will grow 3.3% this year vs. 2.6% last year driven by 6.5% growth in iron ore trade this year. 2) Fleet growth is tracking at just 1.8% growth this year, so utilization is tightening. 3) New build contracts are likely going to be a record low this year and well below the 2012 low when things were really bad. 4) Finally, vessel values have bottomed. 5 year old Capes bottomed at $23 MM and have risen to $30 MM today. The 7 year average is $38.5 MM and the recent high was $63 MM in March 2010 (not to mention that values were well over $100 MM during the dry bulk super cycle in 2007-2008).
All of these point to a bottoming in the dry bulk cycle. I think DSX could probably reach double digits when investors start returning to the sector.
I think that SBLK and Pacific Basin give the best summaries of the dry bulk market. You can check out their latest presentations below.
http://starbulk.irwebpage.com/files/SBLK_Q1_2017.pdf
http://www.pacificbasin.com/upload/en/ir/financial_disclosure/presentations/result/Pacific%20Basin%201Q17%20Trading%20Update%20Presentation%2020170406.pdf
Thanks for joining me on Trevali SSK. This may be a technicality, but it's inventories that are falling very quickly, not supply. If mine supply was dropping that fast, then there are clearly some problems! Inventories are down to 13 days of supply at this point. The last time it reached 10 days of supply zinc prices went to $2/lb. If that happens again, Trevali is at least a triple from here IMO.
Yeah, that's what I was thinking too. When I put the seat in the cold handle it didn't seem like it was going in flat, but I couldn't tell for sure. I'll try opening it up and trying again.
My (two-handle) kitchen faucet was leaking in two places - the spout and the hot water handle. I replaced the seats and springs in both handles and replaced the cam in the hot water handle. I also through the aerator attachment into a bunch of CLR to get any grime off of it. I also had to drill out the set screw in the cold handle because there was some corrosion in there that caused the set screw to sieze up.
My leaking handle is no longer leaking (which was the biggest source of water), but I still have a drip. Any ideas what could still be causing the drip?
I'll hop into this discussion on CVX (and BAC). 19x earnings FY2 (i.e. 2018) earnings might or might not be cheap for a deep cyclical like CVX. As SSK said, oil prices are getting crushed so basing your assumptions on analyst predictions for 2018 earnings does you no good because those estimates are stale as of 5 minutes after they make those estimates. When investing in commodity stocks like CVX, you MUST have your own view on the underlying commodity price. If you think that oil prices are going to $70 in 2018, then yeah, CVX is certainly cheap. However, if you think oil prices will be at $45 (today's price) or even $50, then CVX has a lot of downside as those earnings estimates come down. At this point of the cycle (near the bottom), analysts always have a view that prices are going to rise so that's why you see the earnings growth. However, if US shale continues to pump out tons of oil at lower and lower prices, CVX is going to get hurt.
As for BAC, I hate banks. No one really knows what they are earnings because of all of the financial engineering that happens. I'm not expert on banks so I'll leave it there, but I do feel confident when it comes to commodity-related stocks, which is my specialty.
Checkmate... so what are positions #1 and #2?
There's got to be a better place for that discussion. This would probably be the place.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Global-Warming-Climate-Change-CLIMATE-6099/
ASTE is a really good company. They have solid management and a pretty good business. The only problem is that they compete with CAT.
I would note that I heard recently that screens for mining were in short supply. That should have give a company like ASTE that has a mining screens business some pricing power.
Value...
I'm not a TA expert, but my personal opinion is that you can't use it on something like the BDI (a commodity).
Here is an article that I sent to R59 a while ago and he posted it on the board a little while later. While the current pattern (peaking in late March) is a little different than normal, I think this is primarily a seasonal move.
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-12-21/The-14-Year-Record-of-the-Baltic-Dry-Index.html
I think it's most important though to watch what is happening in the iron ore market. The capesize index makes up the largest portion of the BDI and iron ore is virtually 100% of the capesize freight movement. Iron ore prices have been very weak over the last 2-3 months. Iron ore prices have fallen from $95 in late February to $55 today. I think this is the primary reason for the decline in the BDI.
OT: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies
I guess this is off topic, but this board is about making money so why not talk about it. I want to get some objective opinions instead of going to a bitcoin Ihub board.
What do you guys think about what is going on with bitcoin. I'm extremely skeptical, but my 61- year old dad keeps asking me about it. Just now he asked me about ripple which has gone from $.005 in March to $.22. Obviously, that's a huge move, but I'm worried about him getting involved in another bubble (like buying a FL beach property in 2007 when prices had fallen about 10% (only to fall a total of 65%).
So now, I have a new wrinkle in the story. My handyman guy that originally put in the fan says that one switch was 115 amp and the other was a 110 amp switch. He hood everything to the 110 amp switch when he installed the fan and left the 115 amp as a dead switch.
Earlier this week, I hooked up the light kit of the fan to the 115 amp switch (which I didn't know was a 115 amp switch..or even that there was such a thing) and hooked the remote for the fan/lights onto the 110 amp switch.
The handyman said that if I left the light kit hooked up to the 115 amp switch it would burn out the breaker. I'm not an expert at this (and I may have misunderstood something he was saying), but I thought I'd see if anyone here had an opinion. I also wonder if this would have something to do with the delay in the lights coming on. Let me know what you think.
Yeah...I think they are bulbs from the same package.
Yeah...the flapper is disintegrating in my fingers when I touch it.
Nope no dimmer. I actually replaced a LED bulb in a bathroom fixture and it's doing the same thing (slightly delayed from the other two older LED bulbs in the same fixture ).
My conclusion is that it's a bulb thing.
This is a different toilet than the one I talked about a couple weeks ago.
The bulbs are spiral CFLs just like in the matching fan in another room (that doesn't have a delay).
Been a while since I changed out the guts of the toilet (didn't need to do anything after adjusting the water level in my last toilet question). I have a toilet at my rental that is filling gthe tank every 15 min or so. It's probably the flapper right?
I echo the caution with great stuff! I used when I installed a window and had yellow fingers for a week! I was the topic of many jokes during that week!!
I think it's a combination of a couple of things. First I do think it probably has something to do with Carlos Slim owning 25%. The other is because I think they want to maximize value and concerns over border tax, wall, etc. hurts the value.
Fan question
I think I'm pretty good at this point installing lights but I really don't like doing fans because I never seem to get them balanced correctly.
I had a guy install a new fan for us at an out of state rental property (not an electrician, but more like a handyman) because the old fan motor died. The fan was controlled by a two switches (like almost all other fans).
The fan was replaced with the fan in the link below...
http://m.homedepot.com/p/Hampton-Bay-Garrison-52-in-Gunmetal-Ceiling-Fan-AC438-GM/100583172
He told me that the fan could not be installed with only two switches because it also ran on a remote so it needed 3 switches (which sounded very weird to me). I stalled him and eventually he said that he installed the light so it all ran on one switch (not only skipping from needing 3 switches down to 1 but also leaving me with a dead switch in the room).
We just arrived at the house today for vacation and when I flip the one switch, there is a significant delay (multiple seconds) before the light actually turns on.
Any ideas what is causing this delay? Any thoughts on how I can get it to run on two switches like it should (one for the fan and one for the light)?
Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB- MX or GMBXF). I just bought a position at 50.77 on Thursday on the dip. It doesn't have a ton of leverage, but it's a safe way to play copper to add to my more leveraged copper producing holdings.
Grupo owns 88.9% of Southern Copper, a top 5 global producer of copper. While you can own a piece of Southern Copper (SCCO), Grupo Mexico gives you an opportunity to own Southern Copper in addition to other assets like Asarco (a high cost US copper producer) and Grupo's rail business (which I think is the 2nd largest rail company in Mexico.
By my calculation, Grupo Mexico has a market cap of $21.99 billion (USD). When adding in the net debt of Grupo (excluding the SCCO debt that is consolidated) of $770 million, Enterprise Value is $22.76 billion. Grupo's 88.9% share of Southern Copper market cap is worth $23.8 billion. Therefore, you are actually getting paid to own arguably the best rail franchise in Mexico (with a growing presence in the US) and a high cost copper producer in the US.
I think there are a couple of things that is causing Grupo to trade at a discount to it's holding SCCO: 1) As I mentioned, Grupo owns Asarco, which is a high cost player in the copper world (cash cost of $2+/lb). I visited a couple of the Asarco mines back in December. Honestly, they aren't great, but they do have some value. 2) I think all of the discussion about Trump building a wall has people worried about what is going to happen to the rail business. The rail business is responsible for the majority of imports of autos into the US from Mexico.
Southern Copper is arguably the most attractive copper company in the world (fastest growing, lowest cash costs in the industry, pretty good jurisdictions), so I think that Grupo is a great way to own SCCO. In addition there is often talk about the company splitting off the infrastructure business in order to realize value for shareholders (which is dominated by the 3rd richest man in Mexico). I've loved this story for a while, but I'm finally getting my chance to buy some.
Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB- MX or GMBXF). I just bought a position at 50.77 on Thursday on the dip. It doesn't have a ton of leverage, but it's a safe way to play copper to add to my more leveraged copper producing holdings.
(This is definitely not a junior miner so feel free to delete this if need be.)
Grupo owns 88.9% of Southern Copper, a top 5 global producer of copper. While you can own a piece of Southern Copper (SCCO), Grupo Mexico gives you an opportunity to own Southern Copper in addition to other assets like Asarco (a high cost US copper producer) and Grupo's rail business (which I think is the 2nd largest rail company in Mexico.
By my calculation, Grupo Mexico has a market cap of $21.99 billion (USD). When adding in the net debt of Grupo (excluding the SCCO debt that is consolidated) of $770 million, Enterprise Value is $22.76 billion. Grupo's 88.9% share of Southern Copper market cap is worth $23.8 billion. Therefore, you are actually getting paid to own arguably the best rail franchise in Mexico (with a growing presence in the US) and a high cost copper producer in the US.
I think there are a couple of things that is causing Grupo to trade at a discount to it's holding SCCO: 1) As I mentioned, Grupo owns Asarco, which is a high cost player in the copper world (cash cost of $2+/lb). I visited a couple of the Asarco mines back in December. Honestly, they aren't great, but they do have some value. 2) I think all of the discussion about Trump building a wall has people worried about what is going to happen to the rail business. The rail business is responsible for the majority of imports of autos into the US from Mexico.
Southern Copper is arguably the most attractive copper company in the world (fastest growing, lowest cash costs in the industry, pretty good jurisdictions), so I think that Grupo is a great way to own SCCO. In addition there is often talk about the company splitting off the infrastructure business in order to realize value for shareholders (which is dominated by the 3rd richest man in Mexico). I've loved this story for a while, but I'm finally getting my chance to buy some.