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RE "Wouldn't surprise me if we finish @ $4.50 + by e.o.d. Friday"
Wouldn't surprise me to break BELOW $3 is there's no word on new contracts for Avid.
The market knows Bavi is worthless. It's all about Avid now, just as the CC made clear.
New big money contracts for Avid. That's what will move this old dog up.
That's it. In the absence of that the recent downtrend will continue.
ZERO upfront is a no-brainer.
Possible later money if (big if) miletones are reached.
No, I did not say full year would be $25 million.
I completely agree that they said full year will be $50-55 million.
My point was that they said $10-$15 million for the next 2 quarters combined which equals ~$6.25 million per quarter that is FORWARD annualized of $25 million.
Market looks forward NOT backward!
So previous post points are valid.
RE "human clinical CAR-T+Bavituximab (or betabodies) has been designed by Memorial Sloan Kettering (his Wolchok Lab)"
Insignificant.
All that means is that pre-clinical looked good.
Yup, we know that. We've known that for about 13 or more YEARS now.
All that matters is HUMAN data.
"designed" a human trail doesn't add value to a failed drug.
Breadcrumbs if lucky or nothing up front.
And with PPHM it's ALWAYS the worst outcome that is reality.
I see the stock now slipping into the $3's.
STILL overvalued based on worthless drugs and Avid shrinking NOT growing.
The new boys better ink some new big contracts soon, that's the ONLY thing that will stop the share price decline.
RE "we expect to recognize $10-15M over the remainder of FY18."
There's 2 quarters left in FY18.
That's ~$6.25 million per Q.
That's horrible!
That's an annual run rate of $25 million.
That gets them huge losses.
I've heard a well run, high margin CDMO can fetch a ~5 X sales market cap.
BUT Avid is NOT high margin, it has NEGATIVE margins and never earned one penny in profit.
To say it is UNPROVEN and WILL (YES WILL) trade at a discount is a given.
3 times sales is generous.
3 * 25 = 75 million market cap. divide by share count (unknown due to future needed financing) = ? stock price of $2 orless is certainly reachable.
And remember, my projections have always been overly optimistic!
Add in value of IP (= zero) and you're still at ~$2.
The market must really really like the new team to give it such a premium to fair value!
These guys better start PR'ing big new contracts or the romance will wear off quickly!
RE "I would venture to guess now to be a good time to buy more"
Maybe, maybe not.
I think most will agree that there's not going to be any cash windfall for PPHM's failed IP to bolster the Avid stock price, so what moves the new Avid?
Two things: 1. financing terms for the (once again) needed cash is a short term driver, but #2. The primary determinant will be order backlog.
That NEEDS to grow, and grow significantly. Order backlog is what drives the future revenues. News on that can come 2 ways. 1. Quarterly report, and/or PR of new business contracts. i.e. "signed customer XYZ to a $20 million contract to be filled over the next x months/years".
BACKLOG MUST GROW - period, end of story. Any news that shows backlog growth will be well received and of course the opposite is also true.
Right now Avid is in decline mode with future revenues dropping.
Frankly I'm surprised it's still trading over $4.
$3 would not surprise me at all.
RE "If we get breadcrumbs we can call Dr. Wolchok to the stand to testify"
Oh really? I thought Dr. Wolchok was a lab scientist. He's NOT an investment banker, CFO, or BB/BP deal maker. In other words he's NOT qualified to determine a deal value for a failed drug.
Breadcrumbs coming - or nothing....
RE "Can you explain why you see Avid is in a desperation finance mode?"
Simple: Because of current cash level and cash burn rate.
The just reported quarters income statement was a horror show.
And it looks like the next 2 quarters will also see revenue DROPS which make matters worse.
I'd love to see a model for what revenue level would be needed to achieve cash flow break even. But I know it's a long way off and until then it's the dilution train again.
RE "in case of a breadcrumb deal"
In case? I remember reading the same type of things way back when for Cotara. Cotara vanished into nothingness and not even breadcrumbs happened.
Note it was said on the CC that they would update on any progress.
That also means you'll hear nothing if there is no progress.
You may never hear of Bavi again. It may simply end up like Cotara.
Breadcrumbs or nothing are the two options.
Best start preparing for that now.
Your IP investment became worthless.
You now own a piece of a shrinking, cash incinerating CDMO business that is in desperation financing mode to stay alive.
RE "I am very disappointed no update was given on the exosomes test. "
They are bringing R&D to ZERO.
Everything stops EXCEPT attempt to deal the IP.
THAT was your update.
In other words, nothing is happening with exosomes.
There is no update needed for something with nothing happening.
RE "This is NASDAQ PH and AH market WITHOUT market makers participation. Hence the possibility to move something 1$ (20+%) with one share. "
OK, let's check the regular trading hours quote.
I'm seeing $4.11 DOWN $1.24.
RE "if any breadcrumb deal is attempted."
Breadcrumbs or nothing is the ONLY deals that can be attempted.
You can't get more for something than what it has proven to be worth.
And human trials results are the only data to matter.
Bavi human trials failed.
Breadcrumbs is what it's worth.
Breadcrumbs is what you'll get.
Reality.
Focus should now be on Avid.
And it was last night on the CC.
Important question now that wasn't addressed is:
"At what revenue level do they expect to achieve cash flow break even".
That will show clearly how far away they are from ending the never ending dilution train. Obviously yesterdays report made it painfully clear just how far distant that is.
Y-e-a-r-s away possible trials potential results mean NOTHING to the price per share of something that all trials to date have proved worthless,
Remember the ultimate truth - it's only worth what someone is willing to pay....and I realistically expect ZERO.00 in up-front cash for a bavi deal - if there even is one.
And also remember that just today Avid announced a desperate NEED for a massive cash infusion that is vital to occur in the next ~6 months. If they expected a bavi deal for CASH up front, there wouldn't be a need to talk about desperation financing.
Last trade $4.25. That's down ~20% after hours at this point.
I can practically see Steve King beaming with pride as he smiles to himself thinking......"My conferences calls didn't usually make it drop that much".
Yes, he was quite a success!
How much $$$$$$ do you predict Dr. Wolchok will be paying up front in a Bavi deal?
Oh, that's right, he won't be. It would be a company. How much do you think they will be willing to pay up front for Bavi? I've put my prediction out there as always. Love to see yours.
BTW, my prediction is ZERO.00.
I've got a pretty darn good record of predicting price when it comes to PPHM (excuse me, PPHM is dead, I mean Avid)
That all sounds to me like ZERO cash to Avid and years away from anything. In other words it has no value to the price of Avid stock. Sounds like we agree.
RE "their "complete" focus is on CDMO when all BODs don't seem to have spoken a clue about the value of the IP.
PPHM is NOW Avid - the so called "IP" was worthless, exactly as it always was and exactly what PPHM trials proved it to be. End of story. Now it's a shrinking CDMO and in desperate need of a huge cash infusion to keep it alive. That's reality.
RE "If there is value in the IP and if a few horses are in the race, we will get "fair Value" which could be $5 million or $5 billion.... "
Nope. ZERO. 0.0000. No up front cash for Bavi.
Remember, Realist said it would be like this!
you'll see............
RE "Hopefully there are plenty of quality questions asked during the QA after the cc later "
....uh......no.
LOL - +/-~$6 million per "Q" next 2 quarters?
That's a complete disaster.
They can't be serious.....
That ATM gonna be smokin!!
Hey, wait a minute, he didn't say how much Exosomes are gonne fetch!
(Just kidding - exosomes just more pump BS by the bozos)
With R&D going to zero, quite clear all the pumps were pure trash.
Imaging? Biosimilars, exosomes, etc etc etc ....all basically declared worthless - as some of us always knew.....
OMG what a disaster. Here's the lowlights:
Contract manufacturing revenue from Avid's clinical and commercial biomanufacturing services was $12.8 million.
Cost of contract manufacturing increased to $16.2 million
(NEGATIVE gross profit)
selling, general and administrative expenses decreased to $3.9 million
Peregrine's consolidated net loss attributable to common stockholders was $14.1 million
$27.7 million in cash and cash equivalents as of October 31, 2017, compared to $46.8 million at fiscal year ended April 30, 2017.
*****the Company plans to raise additional capital within the next six months.
Maybe they'll keep Lytle around to get the WORST financing terms available?????
Backlog ONLY $33 million?!?!?!?!?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Even after the end of Bavi, they still incinerate cash at a nightmare pace.
The DILUTION TRAIN continues!
Wow, I admit I couldn't have predicted this no matter how pessimistic my projections were!
BTW, when they say the company is now AVID, it's truer than that.
Expect ZERO cash for Bavi upfront - ZERO.
They wouldn't be warning about needing more capital if they expected a deal for Bavi to come with $$$$.
Looking on the bright side, support at $2-$3 might hold.
IF they can cut costs quickly enough....."If"......
$3 billion? Current value is ZERO.
Whatever you think Avid is worth is how the stock should be valued.
If PPHM does a Bavi deal, the upfront cash will be ZERO.
Accept it, deal with it, that is reality.
I can see the headline now.......
Could potentially be worth "X" at some point in the undefined future if milestones are reached....
Bavi failed. It's "value" is exactly what PPHM trials proved it was worth which is nothing. No BP/BB will pay cash up front for it.
It's no different than Cotara at this point. Water under the bridge.
Sunk cost. Wasted time and money. PS is/was an interesting target, but Bavi wasn't the right way to use it.
As for corporate personnel developments, great to see the old board gone, but it's ~10 years too late.
And what I read was King resigned from the BOD, I didn't see anything about him being out as CEO. King and most definitely Lytle need to go - pronto.
From today's PR "The company is pursuing to license or sell its proprietary R&D assets, including its lead immunotherapy candidate, bavituximab..."
Too funny! These bozos have bragged for YEARS about all the "interested parties", now that their jobs and careers literally depend on doing a deal big enough to move the stock price all they can say is that they are trying to make a deal. And yet, no deal.
Obviously with their jobs on the line they are highly motivated to make a deal, but why not one already? Ronin has been around for quite some time with the very real possibility of putting these bums out on the street where they belong, but no deal.....
As ALWAYS, just empty words. talk talk talk and all the actions are FAILURES.
Thank goodness the end is near for this cash incinerating - shareholder value destroying - multiple reverse splitting - unending dilution team of losers.
RE "Can't take any posters seriously who posted negativity here for their entire existence on this board."
Ahahaha, yup, don't take seriously the people that have been RIGHT all along!
RE "7 PPHM BoD candidates"
Completely pointless. Why? A majority of 7 is FOUR.
The same 4 scumbags that ran this company into the ground with a nearly complete destruction of shareholder value STILL would rule every decision. Just because they found other lackeys to collect a big easy paycheck doesn't change reality.
Go Ronin!
The scum that control this company (if you can call it that - better to call it what it is, a perpetual cash incinerating dilution machine)
have absolutely NO honor whatsoever.
First they destroy shareholder value over many many years, then when it's obvious they will be ousted, they use every trick in the book to milk a little more out of it before the end.
RE "what is the value you assign to PS Targeting "
Anyone with a reality check on how biotech investing works understands the value of PPHM's PS targeting. It's worth EXACTLY how much PPHM has proven it to be worth, and to date that is a grand sum total of ZILCH.
That's the real world.
Anyone that claims it has X number of billions of value is talking in the extremely distant hypothetical future! And funny how that extremely distant hypothetical future constantly gets pushed out and out and out while the share count goes higher and higher and higher thus making any extremely distant hypothetical value ever diminishing!
............Enter Ronin - finally.
Go Ronin go!!!
PPHM board getting booted out is far to good for them.
I know what Daenerys Targaryen would do to these honorless lowlifes!
Go Ronin go!!!
Change in control will be the best thing that ever happened for this company.
Well except for the - let's call it "fake news" run up in 2012.
Go Ronin Go!!!
RE "Don't forget the .... exosome test kit."
Like everything else PPHM has EVER mentioned, that's somewhere in the realm of between YEARS to NEVER, with a 99% chance of never.
"Number of shares of common stock outstanding as of August 25, 2017: 45,096,081 "
So for those more recent "investors" from pre-reverse 2009 that's
7 X 5 X 45,096,081 which equals 1.578 BBBBBBBBBBBBBillion shares of trash created by the ever shareholder unfriendlies at PPHM.
Gee a BBBBillion dollar market cap achieved by some magic mystery years away success would yield a whopping 63 pennies per share for 2009 pre-reverse "investors".. Exciting times!
On another note...
Annual meeting is supposed to be October. It's October now!
Still no proxy cards??? It takes time to mail them out and allow time to get them back and accounted for. What slimy games are these guys up to now?
Wow! DOWN 9%! Did I miss a PR from the boys about how great things are?
RE " manipulation of PPHM now"
A stock with GENUINE buying interest can not be "manipulated" downwards.
If enough people find value in a security it goes up!
Note the level of interest in PPHM's so called "tech"?
It's non-existent.
FACT.
NEXT!?
RE "Abbvie certainly did not just walk up and offer a partnership...
Interesting days ahead "
LOL! Abbvie's "interest" was based on BOGUS DATA. That's why they bailed.
End of story - NEXT!
Here's something much more interesting:
The January of 2018 $2 puts can probably be bought for $.15 per contract.
When this garbage stock gets back to $1, that would be over a 6 BAGGER!
It's the reverse split pattern.
Stock now ~8 pennies per share in 2009 pre-reverse pre-reverse terms!
RE "Leads me to believe news may be around the corner. "
What was the effect of the last couple PPHM PR's?
Oh, that's right - DOWN!
Only news that matters is if/when Ronin's nominees are elected,
RE "we find out some of those non disclosed collaborations and possible reasons why they needed not mention them"
Again the implication is that PPHM has something great or "hidden" value.
If that were true, they would not have layed of 20% of their employees.
If that were true, they would reveal it to save their butts.
If that were true, some people would still know and the stock would rocket.
That's the way the market works. It's not happening.
These bums are DONE and should have been many YEARS ago.
They were a total farce of a team that made every mistake in the book, had no clue how to run a publicly traded company and totally destroyed shareholder value with unending and massive abusive dilution - usually on the worst possible terms or prices.
PPHM should be a case study on everything that is bad about biotech investing.
Hopefully Ronin will salvage a little value, but even the market doubts that now....
RE "Would love to see a third party throw their hat in the ring. That would really convince me our tech is sought after."
LOL, no one wants PPHM's "tech".
The market cap is ~$150 million?
And some claim Avid is worth a chunk of that.
KITE with NO approved drug just got bought for around $12 Billion.
Tells us VERY clearly what PPHM's "tech" is worth.
If anyone thought it has any value, you think it might trade for a few pennies more per share?
Obviously NO ONE thinks it has value or they'd be gobbling up shares at these prices.
"Election of Directors - The Company has adopted a plurality vote standard for non-contested and contested director elections. As a result of our nomination of the Nominees, the director election at the Annual Meeting will be contested, so the [four (4)] nominees for director receiving the highest vote totals will be elected as directors of the Company. With respect to the election of directors, only votes cast “FOR” a nominee will be counted. Proxy cards specifying that votes should be withheld with respect to one or more nominees will result in those nominees receiving fewer votes but will not count as a vote against the nominees. Neither an abstention nor a broker non-vote will count as a vote cast “FOR” or “AGAINST” a director nominee. Therefore, abstentions and broker non-votes will have no direct effect on the outcome of the election of directors."
Music to my ears. Good old fashioned proxy fight.
Can't wait to see long suffering shareholders kick the bums out!
Everybody (or almost everybody) knows that the sole purpose of a poison pill is to entrench management/BoD and is NOT for the benefit of shareholders.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/poisonpill.asp?lgl=myfinance-layout
"They were devised as a way to stop bidding takeover companies from directly negotiating a price for the sale of shares with shareholders and instead force bidders to negotiate with the board of directors."
Of course if a BoD was a self serving group that had essentially no equity investment in the company, it would be in their best interest to decline reasonable offers that would not even be made aware to the shareholders.
Hmmmm.....
RE "Peregrine worth $1-2 Billion market cap RIGHT NOW "
Obviously there are some puzzle pieces in the way of that calculation!
Right now market cap is about 1/10th of that. And EXACTLY where it belongs until or unless proven otherwise. PPHM has failed miserably to prove otherwise....
RE "To not acknowledge any progress or company advances is a foolish journey. "
ALL "progress and company advances" are in fact reflected in the market cap of the company.
See any progress?
Absolutely not.
Quite the contrary. This company has gone less than nowhere UNLESS you count corporate greed of insiders.
That will be fixed soon.
Amazing, the first time we can use the word "soon" and it actually has relevance!