Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I just read the latest nightmare report.
Things keep getting worse, NOT better.
Remember the "good ole days" when we could debate how meaningless talk of "gross profit" was?
Solved that problem! Well, those days are now gone.
NOT even gross profit anymore. This company continues to get worse, NOT better.
Next UGLY factoid? CASH is now LESS than April of 2017 and AFTER another HUGE dilution. Yes, you read that right. After yet another massive dilution to "raise" cash, the CASH level is still LESS than it was 9 months prior.
What else? Oh, does anyone care to calculate how many 100's of percent sales have to go up BEFORE Avid can produce penny 1 in a profit??????
Yes, "missed milestones", but that's what can lead to an undervalued state of trading for ~half of net cash which often creates a value opportunity.
March 12th gonna be UGLY!
Probably worse than I expect as usual.
Quarterly cash burn and dilution report - some things never change.
Little announced contracts don't matter.
Expect new 52 week lows as a result.
Just calling it as I see it!
AGTC up ~18% since post here on Feb 18th.
Was definitely a value play, but not 1 comment on it....
Original post:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=138654697
AGTC = Applied Genetic Technologies Corporation.
Stock price significantly LESS than net cash.
12-31-17 Quarterly report.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=12534146&RcvdDate=2/9/2018&CoName=APPLIED%20GENETIC%20TECHNOLOGIES%20CORP&FormType=10-Q&View=html
Cash, cash equivalents, and investments ~ $119.7 million.
No LT debt.
Shares out ~18 million.
cash + equivs ~ $6.65 per share.
Total liabilities ~$1 per share.
STOCK PRICE = $3.75.
Expected 2018 loss -1.16 per share.
Expected 2019 loss -1.74 per share.
Companies website https://www.agtc.com/
Products:
X-Linked Retinoschisis
Achromatopsia
X-Linked Retinitis Pigmentosa
Macular Degeneration
RE " it was worth $8M"
Jury still out on that. The companies very existence is questionable and
cash received is still at ZERO. We'll see if anything comes in - dare I say it - in the coming months......lol
RE "this is for a facility expansion"
Huh? The current facilities are sitting there without much to do!
What's current capacity?........and revenue of $10-$15 million projected over 6 months! Revenues going DOWN. Legacy business expenses are NOT all
gone. This means HUGE cash burn. Just wait until you see the next LOSS report.
RE "they will buy back preferred to get rid of dividends"
LOL - there is NOT enough money.
They can't:
1: buy back preferred
2. use for ongoing cash burn.
3. Expand facilities.
4. Keep enough on had to prevent a "going concern" clause.
I know you don't want to hear it, but this is NOT the last dilution.
If they had deals, they would announce them BEFORE the dilution to get the stock higher. Obviously there are no deals imminent!
Guess what happens when the NEXT dilutive deal happens????
Hint - check today's stock price move!
RE "only chance is a united movement "
Newflash - you're too late! the deal is done $2.25 per share.
The dilution is real, and the stock has moved.
STILL overvalued for a company expecting $10-15 million in revenue over a 6 month period.
No big new contracts were announced, and as I said that was the ONLY thing going to prevent this stock from tanking.
"Wouldn't surprise me to break BELOW $3 is there's no word on new contracts for Avid."
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=136925201
Realist said it would be like this.
Now ~$2.70 and more dilution to keep Avid afloat.
RE "Not too worried at what price at this point, unless it is below $3"
Look at the current stock price. $2.70 ish.
So yes, it will be below $3.
RE "I am shocked they got anything up front. "
I will not believe they got anything up front UNTIL the Money arrives and the check clears. As of now it's just words. Still $0.00.
Not so fast. A PR is not cash received.
As of now, cash received is ZERO.
There's been a lot of words in PR's over the years that was hot air.
Remember Dios, Stason, and gosh knows how many I forgot.
And we see this "Oncologie" is barely existent.
Let's count the cash as is comes in - if it does.
As of now the number still stands at $0.00.
RE "At least there's the chance for milestones and royalties"
You can't be serious.
It's over. Been over for years.
$8 million was a gift.
Congrats for getting more than zero.
But hold on just a second.
Here's the actual words:
"Avid will receive an aggregate of $8 million in upfront payments from Oncologie paid over a PERIOD OF SIX MONTHS from the execution date of the agreement"
Six months to get the $8 million.
PPHM had/has a habit of dealing with companies that are questionable to even exist. This one is no exception. Let's NOT count that $8 million before the check(s) are received. I have doubts it will be in the mail...
It was good news though.
Stock up today!
5 cents as I check, which if you convert to pre-reverse pre-reverse 2009 prices ~ $.0014 per share. Wow to that Bavi "value"!
Here's reality.
BAVI trials FAILED.
PPHM did not prove BAVI had any value.
No one pays big money for failed trial drugs.
To have value it would need another TRIAL.
AVID/CDMO is NOT running anymore trials.
It's over.
Breadcrumbs or nothing is REALITY.
RE "Avid was profitable on its own"
Incorrect. Avid was said to be able to have a "gross" profit.
There were NEVER separate financials for AVID.
By definition gross profit is NOT profit because it does not subtract many of the expenses a business has.
RE "“Seeking to monetize the R&D assets.”
“There is some residual value we believe.”
“We hope to have news on that front very soon.”
“Obviously that means potential upside for shareholders over the short term.” "
It's CEO-speak. They're all slick salesman, that's their JOB!
Better focus on the KEY word of each sentence:
1. seeking.
2. we believe.
3. hope.
4. potential.
Here's my sentence. I'm an SEEKING investments in my widget company because I BELIEVE that there is HOPE of large POTENTIAL for this market.
You guessed it. Complete BS.
Remember SK's statements like:
"interested parties"
"soon"
There's a long list.
Paying attention to their words can be hazardous to your financial health. Best look at the FACTS and the ACTIONS.
RE "that is not a mere "fledgling Manufacturing company" in light of the number of years "
It is certainly a "fledgling Manufacturing company" based on the following facts:
1. Declining sales.
2. Not profitable.
3. Cash infusion needed.
RE "According to the CEO in his just-released presentation to investors at Noble"
ALL should pay VERY close attention to revenue slide.
TOTAL $40 million taken in Q1 & Q2, and total for the year is projected to be $50-$55 million, that means $10-$15 million for HALF a YEAR!
That's ~$6 million per a "Q" or forward rate of ~$25 million per year (future 4 "Q"'s).
Massive revenue growth isn't a luxury to a growing stock price here, it's a necessity for mere survival!
RE "your still thinking PPHM thoughts"
Nope, that's dead and buried, along with the worthless IP.
I'm focused on Avid.
A revenue declining, cash burning, soon to be diluting, excess capacity little CDMO in over regulated, high cost, liberal lunacy CA.
CASH will be needed "soon".
Remember Lias said that a going concern clause is fatal for a CDMO and they need to fix that (or something to that effect), so dilution will be soon and the stock is close to $3 NOT $8.
And yes, $200 million in revenue is a far away fantasy when revenues are going down not up! How much is an empty bioreactor worth with too much staff to pay to watch it collect dust?
RE "What happens to the pps if they announce 4 new customers generating $75 million in revenues?"
That's not a realistic statement.
RE "Avid....build revenue to $200 million"
RE " new shares and an average of $8/share. "
I see that when old fantasies die new ones are born.
Here's the FACT: Avid has DECLINING sales, not increasing sales.
$200 million in sales is pure fantasy. In other words, NOT relevant to the price per share. What is relevant? Unfortunately the next dilution, and it's not gonna be at $8.
Based on projected sales, ongoing red ink, and more dilution, $2 per share is the far most likely outcome.
Bavi is dead and if they don't want to sell if for breadcrumbs, then it will gather dust on the shelf just like Cotara.
RE "Any word on exosomes or BetaBodies? "
Is that a serious question?
Worthless like everything else.
That should be blatantly obvious by now.
The shareholder meeting should put an end to any talk about IP "value".
As I've been saying the ONLY think that matters here going forward is NEW CONTRACTS for AVID.
RE "It is quite possible that there is no or little value to be attained for the IP"
Yathink? There's no bidding war for failed drugs.
It will be an interesting social/psychological experiment to see how much time must pass before Bavi the bust is never mentioned here again.
How many months/years of no deal will it take?
Cotara...........
RE "....realize that Jeanette Bleecker...."
At some point all will realize that anything that happened in the biotech world 6+ YEARS ago has ZERO relevance to current value.
Meanwhile.........the DILUTION train continues!
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=12476115&RcvdDate=1/12/2018&CoName=AVID%20BIOSERVICES%2C%20INC.&FormType=S-3&View=html
RE "Start it out......$21 Billion "
LOL! since Avid filed for a 125 million shelf, I suppose they need $21.125 Billion to operate? LOL
Or.........maybe just maybe Bavi is worth $0.0000000000 billion.
RE "the market doesn't think much of the value of an IP deal"
Nearly everyone knows the value of an IP deal is virtually ZERO cash up front. There's never much of a market for failed drugs. Everyone is chasing the winners, NOT the losers.
The generous valuation currently for the shares is due to confidence in new team, BUT that will dwindle quickly if new contracts don't materialize.
~$2 per share may hold, but I wouldn't be shocked if it didn't.
Right now, this company is a cash incinerating, revenue shrinking, unproven CDMO - period. That's not a recipe for a rising stock price.
NEW contracts or the downtrend will continue.
Sorry, but that's reality.
Haven't been keeping up here lately, but Lytle needs to go if he hasn't been released already. That man was a nightmare.
RE "Currently, Lisa is supporting the development activities and launch readiness plans for bavituximab"
Obviously that is some very antiquated information.
Lisa is no longer needed.
Trim some more fat from CDMO.
See if Avid can scrape out a penny in profit in the next couple years.
Only relevant PR's going forward are Avid booking new business.
RE "the trial within a trial simply just proved"
Ah, the old "data mining" trick!
And what does science say about that?
"run another trial and prove it!"
Bavi value still = 0 .
Even PPHM doesn't want to waste any more money on it!
I'll add to your point...
Tell us all the impressive institutions that have been involved with bavi over the last ~14 years? I'll be the first to acknowledge it's a very long list. the problem is that all those years and all those organizations and all that research yielded results that were at best unimpressive which is why even the company admits its failure by refocusing with AVID.
Note the missing paragraph in today's PR?
It used to start with something like "Peregrine is pursuing the licensing or sale of its proprietary R&D assets, including its lead immunotherapy candidate, bavituximab....."
As I've expected you'll be seeing and reading and hearing less and less about Bavi over time and it's already begun. Soon to enter the realm of "Cotaraland".
What will Bavi fetch in a deal? Everyone "realistic" already knows.
ZIPPO or breadcrumbs are the only possibilities.
But heck, I've only been 100% right about this stock for about 14 years.
RE " Dr Jedd Wolchok "
I'm not trying to disrespect the good Dr. or his work. Please keep that in mind.
How many very well credentialed scientists with how many different organizations over how many years and how many applications have tinkered with Bavi? Been involved with Bavi, wrote papers, gave presentations, published, helped with trials etc etc. It's a very very long list. But, it's all about Dr. Wolchok now. Why? Because everyone else gave up on it.
i.e no longer involved, so now Dr. Wolchok is the new Bavi mesiah.....
Breadcrumbs. Get used to that word, and no talk about lawsuits/breach of duty etc is going to change the value of a drug that failed trails.
BB/BP does not make big deals or get in bidding wars over FAILED drugs.
Doesn't happen. How about proving otherwise. Links to big deal for a failed drug?
RE "GILD or Novartis wants the anti-PS platform.
Link please!
Remember PPHM's Cotara?
It wasn't long ago that PPHM led shareholders into believing they were going to sell it for something.
What happened? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Didn't sell PPHM's Cotara for one penny. History is very capable of repeating itself here.
RE "I just hope it is for more than $15 per share. "
Be careful what you wish for. I doubt you want another 1 for 5 reverse split! That's the only way this ever sees $15.
RE "So Garnick is gone"
Of course. His responsibilities are not needed at the new Avid.
RE "realist, no it doesn't mean that. "
Yes, it does.
You never even countered my point.
You just made a different point -which again is meaningless to the value of PPHM stock.
So someone may be looking far off into the future to maybe think about creating a human trial for Bavi. So what! All that means is pre-clinical testing looks good. Again, as I said, bavi worked in mice ~13 years ago.
YEARS from now, if the trial gets run and if the results are good, then we can talk about the value of it.
RE "$3.85 is about $0.55 pre RS. "
Oops, you forgot one of the reverse splits!
Pre-reverse 2009 ==== 11 pennies per share.
RE "current PPHM valuation"
1- Avid (based on forward sales NOT past sales) = $1 to $2 per share.
2- Net cash - nothing as everyone knows it will be consumed.
3- IP = ZERO.
4- market optimism premium for new management/BOD = the remainder.
#4 is the wildcard and will fluctuate.
Also #4 will deteriorate if Avid does not ink new big contracts - dare I use the word......"SOON"....
RE "EYE PEE PEREGRINE GUESSING GAME "
People are wising up. Looks like I'll have to share the win this time around.
RE "GILD/KITE looks like a possibility .....JUNO/CELGENE might also be in play."
Yes, there's always a bidding war between biotech behemoths for failed drugs! LOL
Yes, you love Bavi! How about posting ANY deal where a FAILED drug got a deal for up-front cash??????????????????
Links to show the phase 3 failure and the link for the big money up front deal.
BTW fiduciary duties are being better carried out now by not WASTING more dilution to further do trials on a FAILED drug candidate AND by trying to grow the failing Avid business. And yes, when there is a SEVERE revenue DECLINE - that by definition is a failing business!