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RE "they have to cut to the bone"
But doubt they will.
And if they do not, it will be dilution into oblivion at these levels (or lower)
RE "Now, since Peregrine has stood their ground and advanced with more compelling data."
FAILING the ONLY phase III trial is NOT "advanced" it is in all reality failure and a major setback.
RE "50% gross margin and 1,500,000 building depreciation "
I'm not talking depreciation - that's non cash anyway.
I'm talking OPERATING EXPENSES.
We have absolutely no idea how much Avid's "Selling General and Administrative" expenses are, but you can bet it is staggering.
NEXT!
You know the reason why they only talk "gross margin"?
Because they don't dare talk NET margin.
RE "AVID can pay this itty bitty dividend til kingdom come"
You mean if the rest of PPHM is shut down?
Please show me Avids income statement so I can compare NET income to the PPHMP dividend?
Oh, you can't - NEXT!
RE "As the study continues, data will be collected and will contribute to our understanding of immuno-oncology treatment options."
Yes, so in the coming YEARS while they further dilute their shareholders (probably at a new record pace) they can take another guess at yet another trial which will take years.
NOTHING has changed here - never will change here, just the additional YEARS of waiting and the ever increasing number of shares.
That's NOT good news.
RE "They <management> need to show us that they get it"
Please show me one example (any example) that they "get it"?
They DO NOT get it. Never have got it. Their entire history is proof that they don't get it. Prepare for more disappointment.
RE "book value"
Book value means nothing.
What's the value of cash on the balance sheet which we have 100% certainty will be CONSUMED?
Answer = $0.
The market looks ahead.
That's reality.
re "if it goes to zero Pphm won't have to pay a dividend."
That brings up an interesting point/question....
Maybe dilution into oblivion wont happen.
Since the preferred requires a dividend that will be harder and harder to pay over time, if PPHM does not pay the dividend, can that force them into BK? As the stock drops it takes more and more shares of dilution simply to pay the dividend which doesn't leave cash to operate. This thing could collapse quicker than I thought.
But, I've always been overly optimistic with PPHM.
Hard to imagine any BP/BB interested in PPHM now at any price, but if there is someone willing to toss a few million on a gamble, King and clowns better take it rather than go dilution into oblivion route or I expect breach of fiduciary duty lawsuits (the REAL kind) will be keeping them up nights.
RE "BAVI WORKS. "
Maybe.
A little.
sometimes.
But that's not what matters (if we're talking from a stock standpoint rather than a medical one). What matters is even if Bavi might work a little sometimes (still highly in doubt) PPHM shareholders are being destroyed and if PPHM wants to continue alone, dilution into oblivion is more than on track now.
A lousy $10 million would take 30 MILLION shares!
Have any idea what that kind of share selling would do to the price?
Then it's lower for more dollars, and even more shares.
It's a snowball effect of destruction.
That's what's WORKING.
RE "astronomical is off the table.."
When it comes to PPHM, astronomical is only for losses and number of shares.
Realistic possibilities moving forward.
1. PPHM thinks Bavi still may have value and they don't want to destroy shareholders with dilution into oblivion at these OR LOWER price levels, so they make take the best deal anyone will offer. Of course it's possible no one will offer anything as it's easier to simply let PPHM die on it's own.
I give this "auction" a slim possibility of happening.
2. PPHM thinks Bavi still may have value and they don't mind further destroying shareholders thru dilution into oblivion and so it carries on business as usual. Note of interest, a 1 for 10 reverse without adjusting authorized shares (which is what they did last reverse) would enable them to dilute to the equivalent of 5 BILLION shares. Even at 5 or 10 cents per share, they could continue to do their thing.
I give this a very big possibility of happening.
3. PPHM accepts that they are done with big trials and has massive layoffs to conserve cash and focus on Avid.
I give this also a small chance of happening.
If it was, where's the PR for layoffs?
Unfortunately from the history of these operators, #2 is most likely and very bad for shareholders. "the market" knows all, and that's why the stock is behaving as it is.
Any other realistic possibilities besides the 3 I've described?
RE "Market cap near cash on hand. Unbelievable! As if Avid and IP are worthless."
The value of cash that will be CONSUMED is zero.
IP = basically worthless.
Avid, difficult to guess because there's no way to calculate if there are net profits, but maybe 15-20 cent's per share.
You can stand in disbelief or you can realize that the market has been right all along.
Taking a poll: How many are riding this to zero?
RE "But is the paycheck really worth selling your soul "
There's no paycheck, get real.
I'm here for far better reasons.
I'm a public servant. The purpose? To protect the innocent from the liars, pumpers, and this dilution machine. From the garbage i've read recently, my work is not done. I expected Sunset to end my work, but obviously that wasn't the case.
re "Seriously doubt Birge, Brekken etc are bailing on years of research based on this one trial."
Grand sum total of shareholder value as a result of ALL "papers" that ever concerned PPHM and it's drug candidates ========= LESS than ZERO.
FACT.
Just check the stock price chart, and think of all the papers over all the years......
RE "1.50/share a discount to Avids current PE."
LOL! there is NO P/E for Avid.
That's because Avid has NO earnings to report.
For Avid to have "bottom line" numbers would require PPHM to report Avid as a separate entity, AND assign the appropriate amount of PPHM's operating expenses to them.
Don't make the mistake of confusing "gross profit" with "net profit".
They are two COMPLETELY different things, and gross profit doesn't mean a darn thing.
http://www.peregrineinc.com/pipeline/cotara-oncology.html
Cotara still up!
Can't wait to hear Stevie talk about how Cotara is back on the table for the 3rd time. LOL
I can't wait to hear about them being "in talks with interested parties".
Then another vote for more shares outstanding?
Oh, these boyz are good!
What harbor to they dock their boats?
Dilute, reverse split, repeat = get rich!
RE "Roche offers 1,000,000,000 for the entire company. "
Maybe, if you mean Colombian Pesos. Other than that........
Bravo Captain, you're analysis was more logical that spocks!
And you said "reality" a couple times, so I'm a fan.
RE "next PR will probably be about the R/S "
Gee, I wonder if these shareholder friendly types in Tustin will leave the authorized shares the same through the reverse split like they did last time? so nice of them.
Hmmmmm.................man, that's tough to call that one! (sarcasm intended)
How do ya spell unending dilution - planned for well in advance?
P_P_H_M.
RE "I do wonder how it can be valued much less than .39 cents with the assets and cash it has."
Because value means nothing.
Trading dynamics mean everything.
Ask yourself what happens when PPHM wants to raise more cash via the ATM.
Another $100 million would take 250,000,000 SHARES!
Of course it won't hit all at once, but ask yourself what even 1/10th of that would do? ~25 million shares SOLD into the market. You have any idea what that will do to the share price? Then the next amount of cash needs to sell even more shares for the same dollars, and so on and so on.
ATM selling.....
people wanting out before the next reverse split selling.....
Index/Russell funds selling....
And who's sucking up all that volume?
It's not happening at 40 cent's.
It's called dilution into oblivion.
But don't mind me, I've only been exactly right about this stock for ~10 YEARS now.
If PPHM doesn't want their stock to go to 10 cent's (or less) they better start massive layoffs, and hope some BP/BB is desperate enough to want to add a drug to their portfolio for a few tens of millions. but I doubt it will happen.
RE "A partner that TAKES 175 million in shares for a $500,000,000 "
That math doesn't work.
That's $2.857 per share.
Dart paid what, $1.08?
We now have proof that he/they overpaid significantly.
Let's see......at 40 cents the next $100 million will cost PPHM shareholders 250,000,000 shares. That's roughly a DOUBLE of shares outstanding OR a 50% LOSS of everyone's Bavi stake if bavi is actually worth anything - which is a highly doubtful at this point.
I should say an additional 50% LOSS of Bavi stake since it's been whittled down to the extreme already by numerous and unending dilutions by the idiots in charge that didn't deal YEARS ago.
Bavi did have "astronomical value". That value was $1.08. Heady days indeed they were.........
Reality has struck.
RE "GILD (or anyone for that matter) no cash in the deal - just stock for stock"
NEVER happen. Why? Because if an acquirer does a stock swap deal they have MORE shares but NO additional earnings since PPHM has NO earnings, therefore the acquiring companies EPS goes DOWN which of course means their stock goes down. Big companies in the drivers seat (and make no mistake everyone BUT PPHM is in the drivers seat because - why - oh yeah - Sunrise FAILED) don't do deals where they insure they earning go DOWN. Get real.
CASH deal is only possibility, but it won't happen because - why - oh yeah - the phase III FAILED. Nobody buys biotechs that fail their phase III.
I challenge you or anyone to give a name of a biotech that was bought out for a big premium AFTER their phase III failed and before another trial with positive data was run.
Go ahead, make my day.
RE "this stop is mainly a loss of time-to-market"
Incorrect. Shareholders lose big time because there will be more trials needed which cost time and money - money through MORE dilution which means that the price potential of the shares goes DOWN LOWER than otherwise. Furthermore, that additional dilution will require THREE times as many shares at 40 cents versus $1.20. It's a negative compounding effect that destroys shareholder value - FACT!
RE " the bulls were in charge " Fantasy.
62% DROP in price. FACT.
20% down is a BEAR. 62% is armageddon for goodness sake.
RE "I mean if this stop has been part of PPHM chosen path to approval"
Huh? the trial FAILED, did you miss that? FDA does NOT approve drugs that fail phase III - period - end of story.
Did you hear the conference call? There was a state of shock!
This is not some master plan at work.
PPHM spent OVER 2 YEARS and tens of millions of DILUTIVE cash to stop their own trial early? No.
RE "The nothing is wrong with the trial"
Except that it failed. Other than that it's all roses......
The ONLY positive thing I can say about recent events is that Fridays volume was significantly smaller that I would have expected given the horrible news.
RE " AZN can not afford to wait to see what happens a year plus from now"
Yes they can, and they will.
There's no big money partner coming now.
PPHM/Bavi just FAILED their phase III.
That's reality. It sucks, but that's it.
Care to try and show a list (or even 1) biotech company that did a big money partnership AFTER FAILING their phase III?
PPHM has ZERO negotiating power, and no one will take a chance on Bavi now until or unless there's DATA to PROVE it works. Of course by then the shares will be even MORE DILUTED. The potential upside for this stock in the years to come will be even far worse than the last attempt.
PPHM is YET AGAIN starting over.
The rumored Abbvie deal didn't even happen after "salvaged data", and there's worse than that with Sunrise (I mean Sunset).
RE "article says it all!"
Article? PPHM has been doing conferences, lab work, mouse studies, articles for 12 years that I remember. NONE of them have done ANYTHING but further shareholder value destruction. There's been a ~90+% LOSS in stock price since then. The ONLY thing that article will get you is YEARS more waiting and dilution and a chance at another trial some YEARS down the road. Yeah, good luck with that, you're going to need it!
These guys are completely clueless and tossing darts hoping to get lucky that entire time. NEWSFLASH - they haven't, but in the meantime they've got rich while their shareholders got poor. Neither the investment community not BP is going to be willing to put money into them.
More shares at LOWER prices for the same dollars.
The most likely thing you have to look forward to now is YET ANOTHER REVERSE SPLIT!
29 business days until the NASDAQ DEFICIENCY LETTER.
Probably LAWSUITS.
This stock is TOXIC.
That's REALITY.
My predictions have been RIGHT this entire time.
RE "with a $0.50 price target by Roth Capital."
Based on their previous record of obscenely high price targets, that puts PPHM fair value at about a dime.
RE "who ever it was, mentioned FUTILITY at 33% look-in as a real possibility (might have quoted AF) based on the slow separation seen in Phase2. "
That was me, check the posts.
RE "I'm surprised at 2 things today, how narrow the trading range is and how relatively low the volume is"
I agree 100%. Very surprised volume wasn't much higher and price more volatile.
RE "The BOD and senior management better have a "come to Jesus moment" regarding salaries, bonuses and expenses"
Why? They already proved to themselves and shareholders that they can structure a proxy vote to win no matter how large of a percentage of voting shareholder vote against them. With broker non votes counting for what the BOD wants, they will win EVERY vote.
You realize that the new share authorization was voted DOWN by a factor of 3:1 by actual voting shareholders and still passed because broker non votes counted for?
You've answered your own question.
Carry on as is will be what this loser team chooses - anyone that's watched then for any length of time will know that.
BTW, in pre-reverse split terms there is ALREADY OVER a BILLION shares!
And there will likely be ANOTHER BILLION.
Probably kicked off the Russell.
Probably another reverse split.
And all the time these A-holes will be raking in fat paychecks while their shareholders get destroyed. Excuse me, already have been destroyed.
Expecting anything different would be extremely foolish.
PPHM getting ready to throw yet another ~100 million dollar dart.
This time they call it IO.
Investors are less willing to fund these expensive dart tosses at human biology given that PPHM hasn't even hit the board yet!
You can fool some of the people some of the time, but..........
RE "But there is still potential in IO."
...right...
And 3 years from now with a billion shares and a 7 cent stock price we'll be reading how IO didn't work, but no worries, Bavi may cure baldness.
Give it up already, these snake oil salesman got your money.
You were warned......
RE "or sell a large chunk of our company "
What ya gonna sell?
Nothing of value to sell......
Bavi just got declared virtually worthless.
Many have known this for some time if they looked at prior results carefully.
RE "Cash and revenue unchanged."
Yup, unfortunately cash will be declining on an ongoing basis, and revenue is insignificant for a company with this many shares.
PPHM was a 1 trick pony and the pony died yesterday.
They'd survive if they cut staff drastically and sold off everything possible, but this team has never showed they are willing or able to do what it takes to preserve any shareholder value.
The market's vote of "no confidence" is well earned.
RE "Can you say OTC Bulletin Board? "
Hard to imagine anyone wanting to stay around waiting for things like getting kicked out of Russell, lawsuit headlines, reverse split.
And PPHM will dilute at any price.
On 12-10-15 PPHM had a PR which contained "Peregrine continues to finalize plans for its Phase II/III trial to evaluate bavituximab with chemotherapy combinations in HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer. This trial is on track to be initiated by the end of calendar year 2015."
2 months later there was not any news of "initiating" this trial.
Yesterday they put all chemo trials on "hold".
So.........did they know about Sunrise failure for some time?
That's why the breast cancer trial never got initiated?
Interesting question for these Bozos to hopefully answer in a court of law!
RE "time to Partner IMO! "
Sorry, time to partner has passed.
No one will be willing to make an offer now.
Drug is a bust.
RE "It's going to be a bumpy ride."
There are no bumps when falling off a cliff.
Newsflash about all the talk of Chemo Vs. I/O trials.
It's important to remember that Bavi has been in trials WITHOUT chemo ALREADY! It was the days of Viral. That FAILED like everything else.
Buying when there's blood in the streets is a valid old investment saying. BUT it refers to when there's depressed prices for reasons NOT specific to an individual stock. For example a broad economic downturn, or a geopolitical event. But when a stock is down for a COMPANY SPECIFIC event, that's another story.
Good luck with your dice roll. I expect you'll have the same level of success as all other PPHM investors.
How much can you lose buying at $1? 100% of your investment.
How much can you lose buying at $.50? 100% of your investment.
How much can you lose buying at $.20? 100% of your investment.
How much can you lose buying at $.05? 100% of your investment.
How much can you lose buying at $.01? 100% of your investment.