Programming
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Just curious if any of you are in MRVL. Seems like a really good AIM stock.
I prefer the term Prophetic. Or should I say Profitic.
My forecast is that the market will fluctuate in the near future. - Henry Poor
Ryan
I use Interactive Brokers (as well as, TDAmeritrade, TradeKing, TradeStation and Options House which used to be TradeMonster.)
Interactive Brokers equity trades are only a $1 buck for a round lot. Option trades are 0.70 cents a contract with no base charge. SWEET!! They're the king of cheap.
Their Trader Workstation software is a bit clumsy but allows for fast trading once you get used to it.
Just my opinion on each broker if you are interested...
TDAmeritrade - Expensive, clumsy and they really tick me off sometimes. Executions are lighting fast though. I only have an account to use their Think or Swim platform.
TradeKing - Pretty cheap, kind of awkward website, slow executions.
TradeStation - If you are a programmer and like automated trading, they are the Rolls Royce of brokers. But you gotta pay a $100 bucks a month if you don't trade frequently. Mostly suited for day traders.
Options House - Reasonable price, fast execution and hands down the highest quality website and trading platform. Extremely well designed. They are pretty strict on margin balances if you need that sort of thing. Executions are okay.
To All,
You ever have a position that moves within a few percent of a potential sell price and then pulls back slightly.
Annoying!!
Ryan
Thank you and well done on CGNX.
Ryan
>Method 2
>1) How is selling a call a hedge, it limits your profits.
Valid point. With NUGT I sell calls every week for 5% a week profit. The money is then funneled into AIM put trading when needed (but truth be told I just like having a $2000 couple thousand bucks a week coming in so I can buy toys). Covered calls is considered a mildly bullish strategy.
>2) if the stock goes down, that is when you should SELL the put, then buy back on price increase or let expire, or the premium helps you buy the stock at a lower price.
For the bearish side, I'm not trading static puts. I'm swing trading, buying and selling them every other day using AIM. Compounding at a very high rate.
See Post #41754
Ryan
A few things I forgot to mention with Method 1. I said sell calls but meant to say sell call spreads. Also, I said swing trade 30-day calls of the same contract but actually I've been swing trading QQQ as the other side.
It would easiest to demonstrate:
Method 1 Example
Step 1 - Let's say 2nd week of Sept you sell 200 contracts of the SPY 240/245 1-year LEAP call spreads. You receive $22,000 in cash for the premium.
Step 2 - 1st week of Nov the LEAP open position profit is $8,800. You could just cash that in by closing the LEAP contracts. Or wait to see if the market moves up.
Step 3 - If the market moves up then you start swing trading by buying and selling 30-day out calls. You would buy and sell every other day around the 0.50 cent level. By 2nd week of January the LEAP call spreads are showing a ($12,000) loss but the QQQ swing trading is showing a cash profit of $177,000.
I'll post an image of my TradeStation Robot Trading app which is a version of AIM customized for options. In this case the calls were 60 days out but you could swap a new set of calls in every 30 days. Also, the last buy point on this chart would be placed using the next months option. The chart is huge so click on Robo Chart to take you to Google Sites. It should display in a new window.
Robo Chart
Allen, thank you.
See Post #41749.
Blessings,
Ryan
Toofuzzy, those are all excellent approaches.
My methods are extremely convoluted and should not be attempted by any sane person. Having portfolio margin helps.
But here they are anyway.
Method 1 (works well with the SPY ETF):
1. Sell deep OTM LEAP calls for the linear income and total market crash hedge.
2. If the market rallies on a shorter term basis (30 days) then swing trade (using AIM) 1-month out calls of the same security for highly compounded profit as the other side of the hedge.
3. Eventually roll the LEAP as needed.
Method 2 (works well with NUGT ETF):
1. Buy the stock and sell covered calls for the upside hedge.
2. If the stock trends down then use AIM to buy and sell 30-day out puts for the compounded profit as the other side of the hedge.
3. If the stock eventually returns to buy price then start selling calls again.
4. Use the covered call cash to fund AIM buys. Use AIM profits to buy more stock.
Howdy Folks. Was on this board years ago. Now I'm back. I really enjoy AIM, especially when used with options.
Ryan
If this little rally is the beginning of a new uptrend then Harry Dent is sure going to have egg on his face.
>Any thoughts from the board as to our current risk level?
I have another algorithm I use for market timing. I intend to eventually sell it to institutions (for $30,000 grand annually, CHA CHING).
Here's a link to my publicly traded, long only portfolio, which applies fund manager rules (sell orders can take weeks some times),
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=JhDnAoHcEeCgBkEoMaKiAbDe
Right now it's giving a sell signal but oddly it is a weak one. I would have expected it to be stronger under these conditions. Given that all the big money institutional analysts are offering ETF services for a higher price, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that massive amounts of money are rolling out of the stock market and into ETFs.
So it appears the market is in a slow death right now (lasting for another year perhaps??). There really isn't any economic activity that would turn that around in my opinion.
Ryan
Thanks Ken.
That was fun. I always enjoy watching Schiff.
BTW, I am considering changing strategy and offer my AIM II system as a service rather than as software. I find constantly fixing and updating software for multiple platforms to be very annoying.
The service would be somewhat similar to Gorilla Trades with email delivery. But lower price.
My goal is to make the methods very simple.
Ryan
>Hi Ryan, here's the link to Schiff's latest video. I'm still 100% cash for now.
Woohoo. Praise God. CREE is down 5% yesterday and working beautifully.
Sorry to be a rabal rouser (is that a word?) but I'm going to be hoping for a massive decline for a while. Until CREE makes the first turn. Of course it could do that all by itself. No reason everyone has to lose just so that I win.
Ryan
Re: The Advantage (aka AIM II)
I just found out my compiler doesn't work for Vista. I apologize for not advertising that correctly.
My goal is to release Macintosh and XP version of The Advantage soon and post the Vista and Windows 7 versions as soon as I get the compiler.
Also, I'm back in the market again with a position in CREE.
Ryan
Yes, it is kind of like what the specialists do.
I've been long and short in the same account lot's of times. But I must confess I haven't traded in a while.
My brokers are TDAmeritrade, TradeKing and Interactive Brokers.
Ryan
Hello macprogrammer that sounds a little like the function of the specialists they are net long on the dips and net short at the peaks. My question is have you accounted for the fact that you can’t be long and short the same stock in the same account.
Vito
In the mean time, here's a screenshot with the sample portfolio,
http://www.theadvantageserver.com/theadvantage.jpg
>Thanks for the feedback. I'll try and re-encode those files correctly and post them again.
I forgot to change the title bar before posting.
BTW the titlebar calls it AIM II V5.0 Alpha - shouldn't this be the Beta?
Thanks for the feedback. I'll try and re-encode those files correctly and post them again.
It seems that the win zip file contains some files that end in a "." a dot by itself. This is an illegal convention from the holdover from DOS days as the . refers to the local directory (or folder itself). You might find the same problem with Linux.
Starting it up it crashes with "an exception of class NilObjectException was not handled. The application must shut down."
BTW the titlebar calls it AIM II V5.0 Alpha - shouldn't this be the Beta?
>Hi Ryan. Certainly is. The large majority of stocks move sideways, coupled with a few that do exceptionally well and a few others that do exceptionally poorly. The overall collective is for a positive bias, but the odds are quite heavily against you of picking the few that perform exceptionally well.
Well stated!!
>But why start with an overall neutral position (long and short in equal amounts), waiting for the down-leg when you could just scan for where the down-leg has already occurred and then buy that long straight away?
I think I know what you are saying. I consider it a matter of safety. If you begin a position both long and short and something tragic happens, your position is safe. You do have to cover the short eventually but the time window is very small in that first turn where you have the only risk you'll ever take for that particular stock.
Ryan
I'm glad you mentioned this. The Advantage software is definitely suited for stocks but not funds. It's best used with companies that have cyclical earnings such as NSM, STKL, etc. The stock doesn't have to have options, but does need to be volatile.
My motto is, if I ever start to wonder if a stock is the right choice, just follow the model (referring to Lichello's 10,8,5,4,5,8,10 model).
Ryan
I still have to look at the software, but if I understand the short blurb on the underlying premise doesn't it sound somewhat like trying to pair a long and inverse pair of funds against each other, switching between the two as they move? I recall we negated the long-term effectiveness of such due to the historical long-term upward bias in the market overall. So in the short term it might work, as would a chicken crossing the rail tracks. It's that "SPLAT!!" that gets you.
Best,
AIMster
Yes, but in this case the short side is actually protecting your long side. And it gives you a trading system that is balanced.
Not just geared towards winning stocks.
Hi Macprogramer
If I am going to go both long and short, why don't I just do nothing!
When the stock goes down generating "profits" in the short side I will have the cash to buy stock as it goes down. This was the original "NO DOWN AIM" proposed by GRABBER later revised to LD-AIM.
Toofuzzy
Not really the same. Grid trading (which is actually hedged core position trading) would be disastrous if you did it with forex. Forex is a commodity which is a trending type of investment. There are no forces which keep currency in a trading range.
Stocks are governed by earnings. Only if you happen to take positions in a stellar company would the stock price continually travel upward. It's much easier to buy a loser than a winner. I've bought plenty of losers in past AIM experience.
Hi Ryan
Sounds somewhat similar to Grid Trading. (Google "grid trading forex" for more details).
I'll have a look at the Windows version.
Best. Clive.
I just read this post again. It appears that it is the zip file itself that is not extracting. Is this correct? Perhaps I need to put the windows version out there in a different format. One that self extracts. I'll look into this.
Ryan
The Advantage Not working,,,,,,,,
" the version of this file is not compatable with the version of windows you are running. Check your computer's system information to whether you need an x86(32bit) or x64(64bit) version of the program, then contact the software publisher" Ok, help please " windows cannot complete the extraction, destination file could not be created" I have windows vista home version, this is a HP 64 bit machine,,,,,,,, Ken
Hi Ken,
I tested The Advantage with XP but not Vista. I'll try to get a hold of a copy of Vista and see if I can make it work. The windows version still needs a lot of clean up.
Ryan
The Advantage Not working,,,,,,,,
" the version of this file is not compatable with the version of windows you are running. Check your computer's system information to whether you need an x86(32bit) or x64(64bit) version of the program, then contact the software publisher" Ok, help please " windows cannot complete the extraction, destination file could not be created" I have windows vista home version, this is a HP 64 bit machine,,,,,,,, Ken
Presenting - The Advantage (Beta)
Thanks for offering to test this. The Beta is good until July 31, 2009. It should be a full version. The Windows version needs a LOT of clean up work but should still run. Don't know if the Linux version works.
The Advantage (aka AIM II) works similar to AIM but instead of starting with $5,000 cash and $5,000 in stock, you go short $5,000 worth of stock and long $5,000 to create an initial boxed position. You then hold the boxed position until the stock drops and makes it's first turn in the downward direction. So starting at the top of a market cycle (which is easier anyway because you can see where you've been) is preferable.
The Advantage makes a profit from the short position and feeds it to the long at the bottom. Then at the top the long position feeds the profit to the short side. The result is your portfolio compounds geometrically. Which is how it achieved $2.1 million in profits after only 4 cycles starting with $10,000.
In addition, if you trade stocks with options, options can be sold both monthly and whenever you reach the peak of a cycle. And since you have both long and short positions, there's plenty of cash flow.
Okay, enough chit chat. Here are the beta downloads. You'll need an internet connection because they phone home. Have fun and enjoy. Feel free to send comments to basejumpers@gmail.com and put 'The Advantage' in the subject. Thank you.
Macintosh
http://www.theadvantageserver.com/theadvantage-mac.zip
Windows
http://www.theadvantageserver.com/theadvantage-win.zip
Linux
http://www.theadvantageserver.com/theadvantage-lin.zip
Not sure what that means, but the beta of 'The Advantage' will be a full version of the software. It'll work until the end of July.
Ryan
Praise God, good news. I launch the beta of AIM II on Monday.
The software is going to be called simply, 'The Advantage' but I still may use the term AIM II, from time to time, to refer to the algorithm.
I'll post all the details then.
Ryan
> Well it all boils down to math
Math... You know I think I've heard of that.
Ryan
>unless you want to get to the specifics, how does your AIM II deal with this issue?
Coming soon to a computer near you. Hopefully in about a week.
Ryan
>One Size does not always fit
Way back when I was using AIM (before AIM II), I tweaked it for volatility and then just traded only volatile stocks. Seems like you only have the two categories. Highly volatile or highly stable. But some stocks shift from stable to volatile and then do not recover.
But if you catch the right volatile stock, it'll stay volatile for years (STKL, XLNX, etc.).
Latest Dent update, if anyone is interested.
Re: Volatile Stocks
I noticed JBLU has become nice and volatile in the last couple of years. I might keep watch on them.
Ryan
> Are you 'AIMISH'? <smile>
Groan. But ROFL anyway.
Ryan
> Why do you think I call myself
Toofuzzy
LOL.
Ryan
>For AIM I use this beast of a setup
You guys are too funny.
In order to use that computer, you'd really have to think outside the box.
Ryan
It's a 24-inch iMac.
BTW, where's that picture from?
Ryan
>What about everyone else? What monitor size are you running in terms of pixel resolution. I believe mine is 1920 x 1280.
>I'm not much of a computer techie Ryan, what's that in old imperial measusurements? I'm way down at 216 x 72 (inches :)
There are around 29 columns of info. The Good Lord gave me a great idea to clean that up though. And it should only take about 5 minutes to program so I'll play with it tomorrow.
Thanks for the info. It's very helpful.
Ryan
>Sounds interesting. How much does it show?
>What about everyone else? What monitor size are you running in >terms of pixel resolution.
>Well, the resolution is somewhat low at 1360 * 768. That being >said, though, it's also on my 37" flat-screen that doubles as my >TV set. So it's a pretty good size monitor, if lacking, >ironically in real estate...