A question for the Profunds experts.

I have never been able to figure out the long term machinations of the USPIX/NDX ratio. There seem to be times when the 2X relationship misses a beat, even over some shorter term moves (big moves maybe?). Is this true? Any simple explanation?

What would happen to USPIX if the NDX goes back to say 900, over the next few years? Per a LT chart I think USPIX was in the 45 to 50 range, when the NDX was last at 900.

Guess I would not be asking if I was bullish the NDX.

TIA.

"I like tech! I still like tech!"

And I still like tech. But the time window is getting shorter. Might like it for a big short soon.

Expect em to ramp the hell out of tech for about 3 more weeks, then open the trap door on the whole shebang, from one end to the other.

"Anyone hiding out below?"

And I am so glad I got rid of my pm and commodity eyeballs many weeks ago. Hell hath no fury like commodities and especially pm's, heading downhill. Having a good year because I did not get greedy, and lose what I made. Hopefully adding to it here.

Went long Goog today no less. Oct calls. May get more if the BO continues.

On another matter, are you buying any drillers here?

I pooted the early May top and did well .... could have held em longer but okay.

I thought some Big Tops were made, but now I am not so sure. Much less than sure. Might be a very good rebound brewing in some big name drillers.

It still works! I'm older yes but not yet ancient.

But it has to compete with the Internet as well.

Yesterday it was boobs, today it was legs. Matt from Ihub has to pay the bills I guess. Wonder what will pop-up next?

When I open up a post on this board there is more often than not a nice looking lady with big tits in an inset.

A good looking lady too.

I have to admit I sometimes spend more time looking at that than I do reading posts. I am middle aged, but not dead. The world may have never truly evolved had it not been for testosterone.

Frank has good wall paper.

Ebay. Hm Hm Hm. TF made these posts last weekend.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22626284

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22626485

TF was one of the few SI pm regulars to short the shit out of the HUI at the top, and plan it in advance, so it seems.

Many other bulls lost their ass, like near 25 % in 9 days. Are they getting sucked back into the vortex again?

But ... I think TF should have re-entered for a big flip and he did not. Traders do fock up.

The NDX is battling with 1700. It should go and when it does the NDX should move hard. IMO.

Recently bot a few INTC calls, but not a big holding. Would like to see QCOM break out to a new ATH. May happen.

I missed on AMD. Was not paying close enuff attention.

Remember Art Bechhofer from SDII. He liked this kind of stuff, and gassers like CHK. He has probably done okay.

Beware The Ides Of March and Into Mid April.

I like tech! I still like tech!

Broken record?

Gotta go with the rotation. Lots of money sloshing around.

Delete. eom.

Should have read:

"Closed out my first batch of energy shorts this last week for a gain ..."

I can not seem to get the update to stick.

Global recession?

We are overdue for one, imho.

Well it has been a while.

Closed out my first batch of energy this last week for a gain. I will be back, for more, and oh will I more than likely be back for more ...BIGTIME. In the interim time to try to hit a lick elsewhere.

Still do not like pm's either.

I think it highly likely energy and pm issues could be the short of the year candidates.

I also think 2006 will be the year for the BIG TRADES, long/short. The swings are likely to be immense. But over the next two years I think it likely that the CRB and primary energy indices will do 50 to 80 % retraces. Have they topped .. in some cases yes I think so.

I still like tech here, very very much, and especially telecoms. I put my money where my mouth is. I have collected a literal truck load of telecom options. I did this over the last few months. They were cheaper than dirt. My first one has busted out, T no less, and I now playing with house money.

All markets are more than likely in THE TRANSITION ZONE. This is the zone wherein major trends are changing. Some have changed, some are putting in their final moves. The market is going to become much harder to handle, from here.

XAU ... see you all below 100 again, per present opinion, but will reserve the right to change that. The retrace will tell the story. IMO there has never been true capitulation from the bull side, since the big bottom, and the pm indices need that, before they can move much higher. I don't even know if the pm indices have topped here ... next pop will tell the story and if it follows the right script count me in for a pascal of poots.

I am a waver Frank. Until my patterns break ... which they have not, I remain on my course. Re energy the pattern break was getting close ... today saved me.

Tomorrow is a new day.

The volatility we are seeing across the board is telling us something Frank, imo. The general markets are pushing towards a BIG TOP, but are not yet there. Do some recent comparisons - is energy in more sync here or out of sync with the general markets? I think it is more out.

"Fwiw I like tech and telecoms here and now, and hopefully on into the end of March. Have deployed some hard earned pm profits"

I think tech and telecoms find a bottom here soon and ramp way on up. Sticking with it and going for more. This downdraft in tech imo is limited, maybe to 3 more days or so.

I don't like gold or energy. Remember the long forgotten dollar. Dollar shorters could find things painful.

I can already buy some large pm sales back at a discount. Before this is over I expect to buy them all back at a discount.

And GM is positive today.

What a market.

Frank, I like Coxe ... one of the better ones.

Out of here for some weeks to the land of the King and Queen, working at a vendor who is loaded up and doing okay. A German company in merry ole England. Frightfully busy these days. The oil patches are humming with work.

Fwiw I like tech and telecoms here and now, and hopefully on into the end of March. Have deployed some hard earned pm profits.

Good Luck.

Looking for a play is all Kastel. I have some decent sized positions, and in some that also have liquidity problems, for me. That is why it is necessary to anticipate a bit. Sometimes it works.

Technically Gold reminds me of the end of year 2002 early 2003 period. I am 'anticipating' a knock down to the 470 area on the cash, and perhaps a retrace to the 110 area on the XAU. If it happens I will take advantage of it. If not c'est la vie.

Per my charting the next move up off the next low will be huge.

Nasty may be a buy very soon here as well.

Purchased some Jan XAU poots today. First time ever. EOM.

Via funds or direct?

I can buy funds in my IRA that do options, but was told I could not directly play options. Can not directly short either, but can invest in inverse funds.

I have always assumed the proliferation of inverse funds as well as funds that do multiples of indexes was a way of skirting the IRA rules.

And fwiw here is the Hoff Monthly, from Dpoint. The Dpoint PMO rarely gives false longer term signals. I do not recall ever seeing one like this, wherein the monthly PMO has reacted so strongly.

I also like the long term EW pattern. It appears to be a completing one. I can not remember for sure, but about 3 yrs I seem to recall making a prediction this thing would bottom in the 1 dollar area. Then things went from worse to bad. I have never invested in Hoff. Not yet anyway.

Is this a perenial dog or a recovering one, within a sector still recovering as well?

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37937&u=nspolar&a=nspolar%5C%27s%20charts&....

Frank, I think the XOI which I use as a primary indicator may drop quite a ways. This is my current map, which I have not had reason to change. It is some weeks old. That little blue trendline is very important and appears to have been violated. The pattern unfolding is thus so far EW normal.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37924&u=nspolar&a=nspolar's%20charts&id=42...

I found a profund energy fund that goes inverse energy, and I will use it (I think). Us Yankess can do funds in our IRA's, but no shorts or options. I wish there was an inverse pm fund as well. So far just have some OIH poots in my regular account.

I think the fundamentals of just about everything are extremely difficult to understand these days, so I believe technical analysis really has its place, at the moment. In hindsight we will be able to add it all up maybe. But right now the fundamental side is very murky imo and all the differing and heated views seem to confirm. I have thoughts but no proof.

I still also think that the general markets are heading to a end of March early April top, a top that may last a long long time. If my current charting is correct the NDX for example is finishing up a minor correction, and that will take another few weeks. But then it may really put on some gains and get quite frothy. I have a few NDX related call options, and may purchase a few more, if this unfolds. I intend to grab some more if it does unfold. I have looked back, and it is possible for the NDX to put on 600 to 700 points, over a 2 to 3 month time frame. Will it happen here? I dunno but I am not counting it out. If energy fumbles, it should furnish some impetutus for tech and other stuff. Telecoms look interesting here to me, for example.

A blow-off and top is an indicator of something coming down the pike. So is a serious retrenchment in energy. Is a decent recession looming? Energy still imo remains very sensitive to demand.

I am oil field experienced, and the oil patch has never failed to react appropriately to demand, in my time anyway. I believe that once again we are meeting the challenge. There are numerous LT global energy projects in the works. Huge projects and I think more to come. I am still traveling around a bit and when I do I ask questions. The backlogs are growing.

And that is a lead-in to my next comments. I do ST, IT, and LT EW. One leads to the other, and if all the dots are correctly connected (??) the predictive nature is much improved. I have significant tops in all energy indices, tops that should last a while. The OSX and OIH were the last. I do not know what holds for the LT future, how long the ensuing correction may take, and if there will be another leg up. Assuming there is another leg OSX looks extremely interesting to me, after a good correction of course. I think I have it in a different Elliott pattern than say the XOI or XNG. A pattern that would be more positive going forward. There may be a reason for this, fundamentally. As you know suppliers have been beat to hell over the last several years. Profits in general have been meager. They still are. But again, in the heavy equipment areas these suppliers are now getting back logged, heavily, and it is not just due to petroleum industry needs. At the same time these suppliers are getting more aggressive, as to how they handle business. I.e. if you want my stuff you have to pay up. I am not parceling anything in concrete, but the money sloshes around, and if a good opportunity seems to present itself again a few years down the road in the energy area, I may look more to OSX.

And looking at a real dog of dogs, HOFF looks a tad bit interesting to me. I used to trade MDR then got sidetracked in pm's. Too focused. I am keeping an eye on few things in OSX. I did okay on MDR, trading it on the downhill run. But oh boy, I sure missed the boat.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MDR&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

PM's ... ST look toppy. I need one additional piece of data to feel better about what I think is going on and should get it early this coming week.

Wish you well.

Merry Xmas to all over here.

"ROTFLMAO...!!!

you're on the other side of my trade. <vbg>"

So far my OIH poots grabbed near the ATH are doing fine. An ATH that is going to last a spell. I am not rolling on the floor, but hauling money to the bank. Going to leave them poots on too, and grab some more inverse energy mutual funds for the IRA. In the coming weeks the shithammering will only get worse for energy bulls.

If certain things happen come next week, going net short pm's. Sold the hell out of em yesterday and today. Hit the top me thinks. How much net short - maybe heavy dude.

I forgot to add .... I expect energy to get shithammered here over the next month or so. As always we will see.

Assuming it does most of the general indexes should romp higher, in particularly the NDX, as they head for a big top in '06.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37655&u=nspolar&a=nspolar's%20charts&id=42...

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37656&u=nspolar&a=nspolar's%20charts&id=42...

I think you are letting emotions come into play, and not following your technicals. There are imo better ways to see what is leading and what is lagging, than price. Elliott wave, which I know you do not do, is one way. Careful observation of TA parameters on LT and ratio charts is another way.

Gold and the HUI are about neck and neck, imo, with the HUI just a tad ahead. Both are leading the dollar, as they should be. The dollar is in the process of waving bye-bye. I think the skid is going to last over a year, possibly a year and a half. It will go on and on and on, and when it is done us Yankees will have been hit broadside.

My latest HUI EW was just posted.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21953977

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37689&u=nspolar&a=nspolar's%20charts&id=42....

There are some salient longer term points. One is that this move is going to last a spell, and has a long ways to go. Afa LT targets I dunno, but minimum would be in the 450 area, and I think that may be low. The fibs starting getting widely spaced in this area, so if that is low another hundred points to that is easily possible.

Technically an index can correct and move uphill ... the XOI did it more than once, on its long climb. I expect to see some of the same in the HUI ... in other words as the HUI pulls away from the magnet red line on my chart, the tendency for it to be pulled back will decrease, not increase.

And finally POG has a very rare EW formation, one that reeks of raw power. I expect the next significant top to be a new ATH. Sinclair is babbling conservatively. And ... as each IT top is attained along the way, most everyone will head for the hills, only to come back and chase some more.

My policy moving forward is not to think about hitting every lick and tick, but to think about rotating from issues that are still strong but weakening, into issues that are getting stronger. I just did that quite successfully (so far) with Tenke to NDM.v, MFL.to, VGZ, Drooy, and SVL.v. The miners fortunately are not all on the same time scales. Buy the degree of synchronization is increasing, as it should in a major upmove.

Holdings.

Drooy, VGZ, BGO, NAK (NDM.v), MFN (MFL.to), KGC, MNG, HRG.to, MR.to, CDE (w Ops), SVL.v, CAL.to (still adding), MMR.v, GFI (Ops only), HMY (Ops only), plus maybe a tad of this and that.

NDM.v imo is a must, and MFL.to may be one too ... for longer term. There are many others that may be as decent, but these are my current picks ... I expect to rotate out of some and into others as we move along. CKG is one I am currently planning a rotation into, for example ... but there are other horses running harder at the moment.

Good Luck to you guys over here.

Looked at GM calls.

Too expensive ... why? There are better risk/reward scenarios re general market calls. So I go else where. Plus been buying some GFI and HMY calls. Both are gonna rock.

HUI ... up up and away, with SA's leading.

Drooy ... even better. This is an update of a previous EW. Right on track.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37284&u=nspolar&a=nspolar%5C%27s%20charts&...

Little VGZ on the side anyone?

Looked at GM calls.

Too expensive ... why? There are better risk/reward scenarios re general market calls. So I go else where. Plus been buying some GFI and HMY calls. Both are gonna rock.

HUI ... up up and away, with SA's leading.

Drooy ... even better. This is an update of a previous EW. Right on track.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37284&u=nspolar&a=nspolar%5C%27s%20charts&...

What do you suppose the bears are watching these days?

The shorties are taking lots of pain, and will continue to do so.

Getting ready to go long GM. Not yet but close. Some calls in that one will soon do nicely, as it ramps out of the hole.

This move up has barely started and will build.

Chary, I don't think nasty is going to give back much here fwiw. A little, but not much. Right now I expect a minor retrench in Nasty towards the end of this month, with a big lift off in early Dec. We see.

A lot of bears have real fundamental problems with all this. I used to be a bear to ... but that was quite a while ago.

I have done a fair amount of traveling over the last few years, and am involved in big oil. I do not have a fundamental problem with what is going on. The world is extremely vibrant imo, and the US is not the only one driving the ship anymore. Heavy industry is making a real return imo, a real return. Not just due to energy projects either. Heavy industry is not set up over night, like some tech. It is big mullah and lot of work.

And guess what - heavy industry uses a lot of tech stuff these days. A lot. Lot of linkages.

I make it a point to ask a lot of questions, when I visit big industry. Not all are necessarily related to the purpose of my visit. Taxi cab drivers are also interesting to talk to.

That formation from the 3 top is called a double running 3 correction and is extremely powerful and bullish.

I will have to do some checking, but I off hand (if I remember correctly) a standard move of 1.61 of the previous wave would be expected. That is quite a few nasty points up. If it happens the bears will finally capitulate in earnest.

Now get this .... gold imo did a triple running 3 correction. Extremely rare. I think gold has started its move up as shown, and first little correction was again extremely powerful. Gold is getting set to blow me thinks.

"odds of a significant up move is very good."

Better than good imo Frank.

The inflation gurus are slowly waking up. The TNX/TYX appear to have bottomed. Until inflation is fact to everyone however, more than pm's may do okay. A lot of mullah sloshing around in the system, imo.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37154&u=nspolar&a=nspolar's%20charts&id=42....

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37155&u=nspolar&a=nspolar's%20charts&id=42....

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37187&u=nspolar&a=nspolar's%20charts&id=42....

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37188&u=nspolar&a=nspolar's%20charts&id=42....

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37163&u=nspolar&a=nspolar's%20charts&id=42....

I make no secret of the fact I like leverage, and I like Drooy here for a big play. I like a lot of stuff re pm's. Slowly walking my way out of a huge dollar value in Tenke. Time to rotate on.

I also like some tech and general market stuff. I think a huge move is coming, and pm's are going to lead, not lag. I am playing some options in this one. Just started taking a stake.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37141&u=nspolar&a=nspolar's%20charts&id=42....

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=37139&u=nspolar&a=nspolar's%20charts&id=42....

A big blast up makes no sense to a lot of bears, re general markets. Markets don't necessarily make sense to the general public. Nasty is set to blow up, not down. So shall we see.

If my Time Warner options head in the correct direction I will double, triple and quadruple up. My current calculations and analysis indicate low risk, huge upside potential .... but timing is always critical.

And Goog ... onward and upward. Ain't touching no Goog poots for a while neither. Have done okay on those I have had ... but standing aside for a spell. I think a big top comes in '06 for a lot of stuff .... and the top will be juicy indeed.

Don't know about the brains but I bot.

basser, I can not send you a private message.

I do not honestly know if I was playing favorites or otherwise. Only God knows. PM SL ... and if he wants to let you off the hook ... fine with me. I will send him a PM on the matter. I have no interest in that shit anymore.

It is no secret that bubble is emotional, I am not stupid and know that, and it usually takes two to tango. I made some mistakes as a board moniker ... had always envisioned a board with no bans ... but reality is not always the same as a vision. Choices sometimes had to be made. That is all I want to say about it.

My only interest at present is studying and applying the finer arts of EW, awa making money. I continue to work on both.

No Mas re all the rest!

PAL ... it still looks to me like it should do a retreat ... but it has to stop about here. I am watching, will not chase. I like the LT chart ... but there are many others I like as well. I think this is risky time to be under invested in gold/silver stocks. I like the setup we have, right here .... pm's awa general markets.

If Frank is the Frank he seems to be these days, he is slinging a good trade right here.

Frank I have you to thank for Tenke once again, afa BGO. You were the one that mentioned both of these to me, when I was learning the ropes.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21823850

I am about ready to roll out of Tenke. I think it has one more pop, then it will rest a while.

I am very interested in NDM.v, MFL.to, PAL, and NNO.to right here. The latter I hope continues down some more. The 3 former I think are winding it down, to wind up (big). So that is where I will go, more than likely.

I send you a pm on SI soon.

I posted a couple of charts here.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display_album.php?id=427

By the end of this year I think Nasty will have begun one hell of a move 'up', along with the HUI.

Good Luck. Time To Get Primed.

PAL, see you in the low 4's and maybe even high 3's in about 3 weeks hopefully.

Then I hope to go long. No position right here. LT looks good to me too.

Maybe so. One day at a time, but it is all in the ratio.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21560304

Yes, someone mentioned it on The Shed not too long ago.

I looked at the chart and looked it up, but decided I had enough of similar looking issues.

Tenke continues to prowl.

No bum fuck is me. Still living like a zombie in the tower downtown in Frank's town. I get up and walk indoors to the office. Sit in meetings all day. Walk indoors to go eat. Walk back to my room to do more work. Have not been outdoors in days it seems. My fault I guess.

Damn I want to get home and see mspolar and the daughter. I want to take a walk with the dogs in 2/3 feet of snow, in -20 F conditions. I want to wood up my stove.

Fuck pm's and all the rest. Family is more important. Too many airmiles and hotel beds lately.

Sorry for the bitching Frank. Nice town here, I just want to go home for a spell. Leaving Saturday as we speak.

Heading to Japan soon maybe. Will I find gold there? I focking doubt it.

You is smart to be switching to pm's.

So how are your verbal targets on the dollar Steve.

First 83.5 then 84 then 85 then I forget.


I don't think you look at the charts objectively. Every tick seems to set you into a spasm.

Frank I own a large holding of Tenke, large initial portion purchased in early '02. Added with profits on dips since.

I think you were the first one to mention it, and make me aware of it. Some of my first straight 10 bagger shares will likely be in Tenke.

Thank-you.

Specers do come through. Tenke, CALVF, MMR.v, and SGD.to have been my prime specers. SGD.to - just dumped it all. Hope it goes back to 10 cents and I double up again. CALVF and MMR.v - well I should have dumped them a while back but didn't. Now looks like add time. My specers are just that, gambling money.

I intend to roll Tenke over in the near future, hopefully after a parabolic move to 10 area Canadien. Something good must be going on in Argentina these days, with Tenke/VYE.

Roll it to what? I dunno. Some Drooy maybe. A lot of silver maybe - SVL.v? Dunno yet. Plenty of bargains still lurking about.

I posted your comments on The Woodshed with this addition, since we were discussing same.

http://dev.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=20624844

(I think the media left or right are a little like a bunch of whores at times. Trying to throw the best trick for the quickest buck or rating. Zeev's last paragraph puts it less succintly. Morton Downey, Russ Limbaugh, Olie North included .... who would want their children to emulated those anti-leftists).)

In fact I think the media loaded to the right, and they have shit in their own nest with too much smelly blab. So I for one don't feel too sorry for the right here, or Bush, because of left leaning media.

Too much Chutzpah.