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Is there a link for that article?
Thanks
Mish
Thanks - Mish - EOM
Apologies if I missed it.
How would you expect the DOW to compare vs the S&P and the Naz should there be a significant upcoming decline.
Thanks
Mish
Timeframe?
Mish
Don't be silly
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21220502
I agree there is a PPT but to think they needed to get involved in todays actions is just plain silly
Mish
What makes this a "serious" rumor?
And who are those "highly reliable" sources?
Some hedge funds short treasuries or the US$?
Sounds like a bunch of crap to me.
Mish
thnaks for the reply
Mish
Can someone here direct me to what is going on with SI? - I have not ben able to get on for at least 12 hours or something like that.
Thanks
My dad fell down last wednesday or thursday (he did not remember) and when he would not answer the phone on thursday or Friday my brother who was out of town called the police. Aparently dad fell down and broke his hip, or broke his hip then fell down. He was down for 1-3 days before the police found him.
Came out of surgery on Sunday and seemed to be doing OK.
I managed to talk to him for about 1 minute before he went in as they were rolling him into surgery right when I called. Wished him good luck but forgot to tell him I loved him and felt really bad about that for hours.
I told him when he came out a few hours later. It was a second chance so to speak and I took it.
Tuesday I got a call at 1:30AM and calls at those hours are seldom any good. Dad had stopped breathing and was rushed to intensive care. He did not make it.
Have two sisters, one in Anchorage and one in California, my brother lives in Danville IL, where my dad lived and is taking care of arrangements. Whenever my sisters can make it in, I will be gone for a couple days but probably not until later this week.
My brother is making arrangements now. My sister Marie will be flying in from Anchorage and my other sister from California. I will be gon for a couple days leaving sometime tomorrow. Picking up my sister at Ohare from Anchorage tonight.
mish
I assume the three Kings are CSCO MSFT and INTC
If so the same ones I watch
All are quite above pain with QQQ sitting right on it.
Long puts on those, short puts on the QQQ would be an interesting bet right here.
Alternatively, long Nov puts short OCT puts right at max pain would have a high liklihood of success IMO
With all those QQQ puts I doubt we tank here but a close of MSFT QQQ INTC at max pain, OR even a flat move from here on the long nov short OCT would see a probable gain.
M
Yes I did mention WHT.
As for PC being skewed by index puts - not really:
There were huge spikes in equity puts as well.
Plus, count me in the group that says QQQ puts matter.
Very very heavy put buying across the board today, especially this afternoon.
M
Check out these numbers.
http://www.cboe.com/MktData/default.asp
Never seen this before.
Either we are gapping down hard Monday and not looking back, or we take out the high on the spoos, the DOW, and the Naz.
Been out all day. Not sure if you commented on this or not.
If you have commenst, sure would like to see them.
thanks
M
You won't lose money if the index doesn't move at all (as opposed to moving but eventually returning to its starting value) - but that never happens.
Are you sure about this?
I believe it with the 100% funds but not the 200% ones.
If the 200% ones use shorts plus options then the decay will eat away at those options if it just stays falt.
If 200% is not options I would think a margin call could happen.
Help-
Admired your work for some time
Mish
hiker, kudos to fleck for callin the march rally. Didn't know he did, I stand corrected. Do you know if he even touched the long side on his call? Cause if he didn't it means he had no conviction as in talking the walk but not walking it. I know Zeev's turnips not very accurate and Brinker caught the low but gettin out inb time is a whole nother matter.
For a bear, calling the low means stepping aside perhaps.
Look at Zeev, he ONLY plays long and for him a HTTH call means exit longs and go to cash not to short.
For those that are nimble and willing to play both ways more power to them.
From what I ahve seen I can not knock Zeev for only playing long, or for Fleck if all he did was get the F out of the way.
A good call is a good call as long as you do not trade opposite to it. He stepped aside I believe.
Mish
Worms - Viruses etc
Zeev you might wish to run this free utility from Network associates.
Up to date with virus info as of Aug 20.
http://vil.nai.com/vil/stinger/
It detected worms on my PC and OptionsJerry was infected big time.
I had him run it after he reported his computer crashed.
Since more people have bookmarked you and might miss this post from me, you might want to repeat this message.
Mish
mish, but these numbers also indicate a potential for another delta hedging frolicking period, do they not?
Zeev
Yes - either way in fact.
The financials will be the key as to where this market goes.
I doubt a big rally if Financials head down even modestly.
If Financials fly in the face of this bond market, however, I will be surprised, but it will not be the first time.
If QQQ 31 gets taken out with force, delta hedging short will be massive. So far this year, they have stopped every one of these in its tracks.
A modest decline seems most likely based on OI.
Then we have to see the October OI.
M
Interesting OI
SEPT OI
INTC
60K sept 27.5 calls 7K puts
73K sept 25.0 calls 31K puts
MSFT
10K sept 30.0 calls 2K puts
73K sept 27.5 calls 19K puts
23K sept 25.0 calls 44K puts
CSCO
26K sept 22.5 calls 0K puts
65K sept 20.0 calls 15K puts
32k sept 17.5 calls 55K puts
AMAT
21K sept 20.0 Calls 7K puts
06K sept 19.0 Calls 12K puts
C (speaking of weakness in financials)
27K sept 47.5 calls 2K puts
40K sept 45.0 calls 33K puts
32K sept 42.5 calls 25K puts
31K sept 40.0 calls 19K puts
IBM
28K sept 85.0 calls 5K puts
06K sept 80.0 calls 17K puts
JPM
20K sept 37.5 calls 4K puts
32K sept 35.0 calls 19K puts
13K sept 32.5 calls 60K puts
QCOM
17K sept 40.0 calls 5K puts
18K sept 37.5 calls 7K puts
QQQ
72K sept 34.0 calls 17K puts
110K sept 33.0 calls 66K puts
188K sept 32.0 calls 180K puts
128K sept 31.0 calls 260K puts
88K sept 30.0 calls 138K puts
If it was not for the too bearish QQQ it would look like a slam dunk DOWNTOWN
OI in OCT and NOV is very light however.
INTC seems incredibly frothy in particular
I believe QQQ dwarfs the rest of the action.
Still a fall below 31 and a rally back to 31 by OE could be in the cards.
Too many puts IMO for a SERIOUS decline here, but if wrong delta hedging will sink this like a rock in water. For the first time in a long time however, OI looks down. Things can change however, but C and INTC look like suspects.
Zeev - your thoughts?
Look at C and INTC and AMAT
M
Head for the Hills?
M
Well done actually.
Selling has been intense.
I waited too long to short and took some quick hits for gains.
Now watching but holding S and GM and JPM shorts
M
Damn frisky sentiment in the face of this enormous gap and crap
M
You dont think they have been running?
How high do they have to get before they have their running shoes on?
M
COTS - To whoever you are. Big contract vs small debate.
I remember a discussion with someone back in FEB about the significance of big vs small contract on spoos.
Whoever that was with, are you short now?
Here is a link that thinks that rydex ratios signal more up.
I think it is noise.
I do note that spoos big contract is hugely short now.
What is the timeframe for this?
Thanks
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19232398
Mish
Sold BGO and IAM for good %
Would really like a pullback here.
Holding WHT still and a little MDG
M
when?
No way can it go well if this continues
M
Zeev are fewer and fewer stocks making up this latest rally.
Semis are up (again) but what else other than gold?
M
I do.
Dumps in gold tend to mark bottoms as opposed to the beginning of a decline.
M
Soapbox
Reflections On Earnings and other Twisted Thoughts
Very weird earnings season IMO
Bad news mostly bought
Good news sold a substantial portion of the time
Mediochre news nearly always soared initially then sold off
It is almost as if someone wants to convince every last SOB on the planet that bad news no longer matters.
Look at all the freaking upgrades on INTC
Soared on BS news and now has finally given most of it back.
EBAY dies tonight on what seems to be good news as best as I can tell. No problem - that is profit taking.
OK the occasional stock gets hammered (NOK, BRCM) on bad news but those are the exceptions.
PMCS had awful news and was down substantially as was XLNX, only to open up the next day nearly flat. Of course PMCS is sold like mad into that "bad news buy".
Look at GLW. Opened up huge after earnings. Sells off a bit sucking in bears, then gaps up huge trapping them all. After they all cover, guess what. Huge gap down this AM. UFB or what? Check the chart.
Let's look at the VIX.
Better yet lets look at the VIX as compared to the Spoos.
The VIX is down almost 5 full points over the last month or whatever (at todays low) and the spoos are nearly flat. This is off the top of my head so someone please post a chart for us to look at.
Better yet ...
Here goes
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^VIX&d=c&k=c1&c=^spx&a=v&p=s&t=3m&l=on&...
No gains on the overall market since first week in June, yet bulls are salivating everywhere as judged by Cramer, bear taunts on SI, and talk about the lovely vix. This rally is being fueled by fewer and fewer stocks IMO. (does someone have stats on this?)
Here is the crux of the question.
Is this churning and distribution at the top or is this basing for a breakout? The bulls expect a blast off (CRAMER was taunting the IBM bears at 86 calling for 90, GM bears at 37 calling for 41, etc, etc). He gets "lucky" or is it skill that MMM INTC and others pick up the slack. Now what????? Does GM MSFT IBM lift the market higher or does MMM pullback. Or is it both. IBM churns higher and MMM churns lower as every last FN bull on the sidelines gets sucked in and every bear on the sidelines sucked out?
Actually it does not matter what your view is as long as you are on the right side of it. Options (as well as opinions)here are incredibly cheap! But.... You do need a move eventually and it better be the right way.
If you are playing options here I would not do front month. There is enormous dip buying going on. How long can it last? Who knows. We are poised for a big move at some point as sideways action with plunging VIX can not last forever.
Distribution or basing.
If you play the break, will it be a headfake?
You make the call
At any rate, this should be something to think about.
Thoughts?
JSIG (Just stay in gold?)
M
MER is indeed Merrill Lynch
Not sure why they picked that one but they did
M
I believe it is impossible to know.
The MM knows whether he is long or short but the numbers themselves offer no real indication.
The best one can do is ASSUME it all averages out which could be a poor assumption.
Just like the spike in the PC sometime back that was due to a wierd bullish calendar spread, but unless there is direct evidence like that, or unless an until the MMs are forced to show short data (even on options) we will not know. Rest assured someone does but never us IMO (except perhaps on an "unusual" single trade basis)
M
exactly how does one determine that puts are shorted or calls are covered for that matter?
M
I sold 1/3 mine yesterday and had some regrets today but I want a pullback to add more.
Last time I sold 1/3 I wish I sold it all.
When $HUI went from 114 to 130. Bought back at 121.
I think this downdraft will not be as severe.
Midrange stochastics will do it for me.
perhaps we consolodate at this level for a while and that is fine. I do not like a rocketing POG here at all and would have preferred a steady slow rise.
M
Mish's Max Pain Review
http://www.bubblevision.tv/movieclips/cliptest.html
Thoughts on IBM, JPM, GM at this point?
Thanks
M
Greenspan cautions against government regulation of derivatives
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0508Greenspan08-ON.html
Greenspan said that financial market participants who purchased derivatives, including banks, had been able to spread their risks and this had helped to lessen the severity of the 2001 recession.
Yep - Banks offloaded the risk to retirees, your grandmother, and most importantly to pension plans that are about to go under.
Not to worry, those pension plans need to offset the risk to other pension plans who will offset it to MM funds, and those MM funds will offload the risk to Martians. The Martians in turn will ofload the risk to Pluto and the Plutoians will carry all that risk. No one on earth need worry about any of this.
There is no possible harm that can come from any of this.
Derivatives are a riskfree godsend. If only we had more derivatives a few years back with everyone offloading all their risk to the Plutioans. The Naz would still be at 5000. That is about how this F*head thinks at this moment. ng
M
anyone care to comment on this?
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1770692
The battle can be epic and causes the volitility on expiry day.
Expiry Friday is often quite muted.
On;ly if there is a derivative meltup or meltdown does Friday mean much.
Wed before expiry week and Tue-Wed of expiry week are most often the big change days.
M
Max pain on big issues does NOT often change in the the 8 day window aj and I use.
BTW it is 8 days for tracking purposes, but for hit/miss I use 5 days.
If you think the definition is in and of itself infalibale, then just short puts and calls at the pain level. It is not in and of itself guaranteed because of moving averages or anything else. It would normally IMO beat the pants off moving averages. The play starts approximately the Wed before expiry week. (yesterday). With all key stocks and indicies above pain, it was a warning to exit longs (at least). If you use it for no more than that you would be ahead.
If you are playing stocks that do not track well with QQQ than max pain has no affect at all.
QQQ MSFT INTC CSCO tend to track pain.
Max pain on those is highly unlikely to change in the next week. Since the play just started yesterday, moving averages has nothing to do with it.
M
We might even get to add yesterday to that list.
Unless we reversee today, we do.
M