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Appreciate that, th!
Humbling…
“There's still an INSANE amount of shares held by few, tight hands.”
I actually wonder how many shares are represented by folks in this room. I think we just might, all by ourselves, hold an insane amount of shares.
Anybody ever try to estimate what that might be?
More Friday tunes:
One takeaway for me is that big money thinks we are further away from major revenue than many here. Our sweet spot is the 400GB market. Right now data centers are serving … others likely have more insight than me … 10 GB/sec. ? That’s quite a gap. Surely our sales will fore-run rollout but still major revenue is likely a ways off yet. The further out revenues are, the harder you get crushed at the moment. Add to the ‘black box’ commercial environment, lack of revenue guidance, etc and - well that’s at least a piece of what we’re seeing.
All imo only, of course.
I was referring to Rockley not being on the Apple list of suppliers. To my knowledge, that’s wrong.
Didn’t see Rockley on that list, which is strange. Have to stay a little suspicious of these sites as they don’t list their sources.
I don’t disagree with any of this, but my theory of why we are hiring a new VP of Engineering now is that Lebby was overseeing all the changes/enhancements/patents needed to get us to commercialization. When he is offloading those responsibilities, it tells me he is satisfied that, from an engineering perspective, we’ve met our commercialization needs. The VP will be for many of the reasons Richard noted plus pushing us forward and keeping us at the cutting edge.
But - and yes, I know, we see what we want to see - I see this as an end-stage move. Lebby has us where he wants us and can now turn over engineering to a very capable peer while he focuses elsewhere.
Guess who’s on the list of Cisco’s suppliers as well??!!
https://csimarket.com/stocks/suppliers_glance.php?code=CSCO
You are an invaluable contributor, walter - thanks for all you do.
*signed
Found the company release claiming 17 tier 1’s including 6 of the top ten in the wearables market so all set there. If you could still point me to the revenue estimate, I’d be much appreciative.
Could you point me to the $1 billion 2024 revenue forecast? And where were the 17 tier 1 clients that are already singed identified?
Tia. Much appreciated.
~yanqui
On the other hand, margins should be high for us. If margin is 50%, that’s $.35-40 per share of income. Give that a p/e of 30 for a fast growing company, and that’s where you see this pps as cheap imo.
Always interested in other views.
~yanqui
Anything above a 4-1 price-sales ratio is pretty rich. It can go higher for extreme growth situations, which this has the potential to be, but on this metric alone, I’m not sure how you could find the stock cheap at present?
General market looks to be set for a nice bounce Monday. Still early but nice to see.
I love Jose but there is a piece of me that hopes he isn’t moving to LWLG. His third-party objective affirmation of the emerging importance of LWLG has been an important part of my confidence that we have something special here. It wouldn’t resonate the same if he was vying for a position with the company during that time. But then again, vying for a position with LWLG, considering the wide variety of options likely available to him, would be its own form of validation. So I guess it’s all good.
Brilliant post. I’ve made a little money here doing exactly as Grim suggests - riding the pumps and not riding the dreams. The good news is that I’ve quadrupled my money here - twice. Bad news is that still isn’t much money. But it’s better than losing it.
Good luck to all - and take profits that may come your way liberally.
~yanqui
Most of you already know this - and thus I ask your indulgence. But for those who don’t:
Today was a powerful day. When being shorted and losing value daily, one looks for something called “capitulation” in price action. That represents a day when the last of those likely to sell actually do sell. It is typically noted by a very high volume of trading, with a huge spike down and, unlike previous trading days, a significant bounce off lows. This is exactly what we got today. The end of the day was nice confirmation- the market fell off but we maintained. Moreover, we had options expiration headwinds trying to tag us to $7.50.
It was a powerful day of resilience. I hate our pps - I have hopes to retire in 2022 as my wife is I’ll and we need to redirect our energies. That said, I have never been more bullish on this company. We knew a general market correction was coming. And we knew that stocks without strong revenue guidance would get whomped when that happened. But we also know that stocks with well defined revenue growth do exceptionally well during market corrections. So once we unveil, we should explode even during a market downturn.
I look forward to being able to divert $1 million to quality stocks being hammered by the correction- and still keeping 80% of my LWLG.
If you aren’t smiling, you aren’t paying attention.
In other words, if you’re selling, you don’t like money.
Richard, you are a treasure!
Again I’m talking about the early issuance of stock options. As Richard said, probably the third strongest statement the company could make, shy of a buyout or revenue guidance.
Could you provide a link? Tia.
Great pickup. I bought some at $7.12 today - waited to see more of the bounce first, but assuming the stock recovers, I’m in better shape as a result of this correction. More shares and paid off 2/3 of my margin. As the gentleman said, you need to be prepared to adjust your sails.
Shoutout to my favorite contrarian indicator - as Vein wailed about the lack of a bottom, a bottom likely formed. Again, assuming the market doesn’t fall apart from here, that is. We tease you, but we love you bud.
And a shoutout to Mr. Lebby, who spoke as loudly as he could to investors in the midst of this crushing downturn. As always, very investor-friendly company at the core. For those of you insiders who thought this was a good time to sell - pffffttt!
Referring to the early Form 4’s issued, which suggests that the Company sees higher prices even as early as this Spring when they are normally filed. Review posts from yesterday and you’ll get all the context you need.
Best~
yanqui
Actually, interesting to see the Klingon absence today. The shorts heard Lebby’s announcement and decided to declare victory and move on before the true rush for new shares makes their position untenable. Could easily close green today.
The company sent out its strongest affirmation of near term price expectations last night. Shorts read that and aggressively reaped remaining stops. Market weakness helped. I see this as the bottom - calling it here. Unless market totally tanks.
Loaded up on options and bought another 5,000 at firesale prices.
Lunch time. Unbelievable gift, these prices. Great time to visit June options too.
Don’t trust management estimates as far as you can throw them. Bishop’s credibility is 0 - not sure he’s ever accomplished a stated goal. You can have fun with the numbers but careful not to bank on them. Yet.
GLTA and glad to see at least some activity here. Could push us into trips.
They have posted numerous partners on their webpage. Frustrating that we can’t do the same.
3 years from startup - impressive results. Someone to watch.
Could this be the basis of Two Cents’ $30 forecast for this Spring?
Picked up another 18,000 shares this morning. I have no doubt they will all treat me well.
Big picture trend is high of $17, pull back to $7.50, new high above $20. At today’s price, still in a healthy bull market for lwlg albeit a very volatile one. Ride the wave!
Most early stage high growth tech tickers have charts much like ours. New tax year profit taking, fear of inflation and shorts.
You will never buy at the lows or sell at the highs. But you don’t need to.
You just need to spot a shift in trend and ride it. Thinking we’re damn close to that.
You’re a beast, Steve.
Just picked up some Feb $10.00 calls for $3. Anything over $13 in Feb is a win.
Let’s see who’s right here. I still think this is all 1) new year profit taking, 2) shorts piling on and 3) tech sector reaction to fed rumors.
A little news will be like grease on a fire pit.
~yanqui
Thanks so much for this. Confirms my understanding. Excellent post.
Agree with this post completely. One clarification/confirmation if you will? I’ve always assumed that the power savings are independent from the speed gains. That is, that the power savings aren’t simply a restating of the speed gains - meaning that assuming the same speed, power is reduced 2-3x.
I’m other words, are we using the same power to go 2-3x as fast, or 2-3x less power to go 2-3x as fast (overall 4-6x cumulative power savings)?
Tia,
Yanqui
There are many possible explanations for what we’re seeing this week but at least part of it is something suggested last month: to wit, folks waiting for the new tax year to take some profits. Which can instill fear and further selling.
I presume that we settle next week close to where we are unless people start overreacting. We’ll sputter around with $15 as resistance until some more news is released.
I haven’t been as successful as most here playing the dip, but I sold 10,000 shares in Dec and bought back (only) $2.00 lower. In my 401(k) so tax-free gains. Tiny piece of my holdings but still strengthened me for the long term as I put the extra $20,000 in shares. Also sold 100 Jan calls for $1.05 in early Dec for another $10,500 (assuming we don’t breach $25 in the next 2 weeks). Covered calls are a great way to make money if you want to de-risk a little.
I’m more fully invested at the moment than I’ve ever been. Selling at this level is panic selling.
Just my humble opinion.
~yanqui
X, appreciate all your excellent posts. One request though is that all of us more accurately state that perkamine increases speed 2-3x and reduces power by the same. That’s the actual new guidance.
If we round up, that bullish bias is easily noted by people doing DD and could weaken the power of everything else they read. One could just as easily round down and claim that the guidance hasn’t really changed, which of course wouldn’t be accurate.
Again, thanks for all you do.