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rcksihub
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rcksihub
".....the market has reached resistance......"
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"So the Fed went ahead and cut rates by 50 basis points. As mentioned last update, the last two times they did this after a hike cycle were 2008 and 2001, and we all know what happened after that, so this is not particularly encouraging for bulls. We're left to conclude that the Fed thinks the economy is slowing way too fast (potentially already in a recession) and that they need to play serious catch-up. I've heard another theory floated that they cut 50 bps because the election is coming, but that can't be it, because we all know the Fed is a completely independent and politically neutral part... (goes into fit of coughing).
Pardon me, I forgot what we were talking about. So let's get right into the charts! Starting with SPX, which captured its August target:"
"INDU also captured its trendline target:"
"In conclusion, the market has reached resistance and an inflection zone. This doesn't preclude further sideways-up action, but bulls will need to power through this level convincingly to generate new momentum to achieve anything beyond that. Things could reverse from this zone. Trade safe."
"The next President will inherit a recession."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"SPX and INDU finally made new all-time highs, so let's get right into the charts to examine the implications, starting with the near-term INDU chart:"
"INDU's long-term chart shows overhead resistance not far away:"
"SPX seems to have squeaked out a new high, which is all it needed, but ideally it would look better if it could run up into the target zone from August 19 (which, incidentally, would probably line up pretty well with INDU's overhead trend line):"
"And of course, today is a Fed Day. Or a "Fedday" if you hate the Fed. Bulls are hoping for a 50 bps cut, but Lord only know why. 50 bps cuts for the first cut after a rate hike cycle are not typically bullish -- at least, not over the next 4 years, anyway. (This is because the larger cut implies the Fed realizes it overshot and is now rushing to catch up to the looming recession.)"
Incidentally, I'm going to call it now, so there's no question later: The next President will inherit a recession.
"In conclusion, the double "only three down so far" calls (from early August and then again for the last smaller decline) have both proved out. Bigger picture, the market is getting into a major inflection zone, so let's see how it reacts. Trade safe."
Market waiting on the FED decision Wednesday it seems
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Well, most of us made it past Friday the 13th without getting attacked by men in hockey masks, though it seems former President Trump had another close call. Considering that prior to July 13, America hadn't seen an assassination attempt on a President or former President for 43 years, it's pretty noteworthy that there have been two attempts on Trump in as many months. Let's hope people calm down.
The market has run back up to its prior resistance zone:"
"INDU is in a similar spot:"
"Not much else to add to recent updates. We'll see if bears offer any pushback here or not. Trade safe."
Bulls do not have a lot to look forward to?
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"As the title implies, today is... Friday the 18th? According to the predictive text function:"
"So never mind. That wasn't what I was going to say, but I always believe predictive text, so I guess it was a false alarm anyway. Whew, that was a close one! But this means we're free to get right into the charts!
First up is COMPQ, which held its key trend line and bounced, so nothing new to add:"
"Next is INDU, which captured its 2nd downside target zone and bounced:"
"Finally, SPX, which held its key level and bounced, then captured (and since exceeded) both its upside targets."
"Hopefully all those levels and targets were helpful to readers. Going forward, as we can see, there are two viable counts in SPX (for now) and they're diametrically opposed -- which means it may be best to watch the next key levels (blue 3 on the upside, ~5483 on the downside). We can also see that if bulls exceed the prior all-time high, that doesn't necessarily mean a lot for them, because that could well complete blue 5 and end up going nowhere. Bulls would need to hope for an extended fifth to keep things running (over the near-term, anyway) after a new ATH. Trade safe."
9/11 Update 23 years and counting......
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"No real change from last update, but I have sketched-up some potential near-term upside targets for SPX:"
"COMPQ probably still best illustrates the zone bulls need to continue holding:"
"Not much else to add. Over the years, I've commented a number of times when the update falls on September 11, to the point that I feel like anything I try to add here today would feel contrived and trite, so I won't add any commentary beyond what I've already written in the past -- but I likewise did not want the day to pass without any acknowledgement. Trade safe."
"......"I'd probably lean toward saying it looks slightly more likely that it may need more downside to form any sort of complete wave." And that turned out to be a hit....."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"In the prior update, a hypothetical guy with a gun forced me to give a prediction, so my reply was: "I'd probably lean toward saying it looks slightly more likely that it may need more downside to form any sort of complete wave."
And that turned out to be a hit. Now we have two markets trying to make our lives difficult, so let's get right to it. First is INDU:"
"Dueling with INDU is SPX:"
"And the tie-breaker may be COMPQ, and what it does with the blue trend line:"
"In conclusion, INDU appears to be 3-waves down SO FAR, while SPX might be 5-waves down, though the razor-thin margin of the prior high vs. the ATH means it might also be 3-down so far. Some part of me wants to just flat out declare the bull market as over -- but another part of me wants to caveat that heavily because there is no technical confirmation of that yet, and it's entirely possible we've only just entered the topping "process," which could take months. And I'd also note that we're in the ballpark of a downside inflection point, given that INDU and SPX could both be completed waves to the downside (plus/minus) and COMPQ just tagged a major support zone -- so if it's going to head back up, it could do so from here. COMPQ may provide the next big picture clues. Trade safe."
"............ if I had a gun to my head and had to say something, I'd probably lean toward saying it looks slightly more likely that it may need more downside to form any sort of complete wave...."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Since last update, SPX rallied back into the zone of the blue resistance line and was rejected. After that, it went on to form something that's best described as opaque garbage. The annotation below explains the conundrum:"
"INDU briefly broke its support line, but looks like it's going to whipsaw that directly:"
"In conclusion, there's not a lot of clarity in these charts, but if I had a gun to my head and had to say something, I'd probably lean toward saying it looks slightly more likely that it may need more downside to form any sort of complete wave. But that's really only because some hypothetical person is holding a gun to my head. If I hadn't invented that person, I might not say anything other than "wait and see," so don't hold me to it, I'm under hypothetical duress here! Have a great weekend and trade safe."
"..........things aren't locked down for bears just yet. SPX is only three waves down (at present) and INDU has only retested its prior breakout, which has held (again: so far)....."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last update noted that we were getting into an inflection zone, and on Tuesday, the market put an exclamation point on that.
Let's look at the charts to see if bears can continue celebrating, or if they need to tread cautiously for the near-term, starting with INDU:"
"Next up is SPX:"
"So, as we can see on the near-term charts, things aren't locked down for bears just yet. SPX is only three waves down (at present) and INDU has only retested its prior breakout, which has held (again: so far). Since we can only trade what we see, what we see is a market that's been rejected at a potentially major inflection zone, but has yet to indicate whether it's going to make another run back up into that zone.
Bigger picture, we see the nature of the current inflection zone clearly -- but we need to keep in mind that big inflection zones have big ranges, too, so there's plenty of room for INDU to run up to new highs again and still be within the inflection zone."
"In conclusion, bear had a fun day yesterday, but they haven't yet proven they're ready to take over (since they've only formed three waves down so far) and thus we can't yet rule out another run up. We'll see how things develop for the remainder of the week. Trade safe."
"......as the market appears to finally be approaching an inflection point that has significant and real MAJOR top potential:..."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last update projected that INDU would need at least one more fourth wave correction, followed by another wave up to new all-time highs, and that has since happened:"
"As the chart notes, it's getting trickier now, which stinks because I won't be able to devote as much time to goofy jokes, since the market will become less predictable and there will now be fewer updates that say "no real change" and that allow me to reprint the same charts but with smiley-face stickers on them.
It's also getting tricky at long-term scale now, as the market appears to finally be approaching an inflection point that has significant and real MAJOR top potential:"
"In conclusion, the odds probably slightly favor one more 4/5 unwind still left, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that, especially since we're getting into the ballpark of a MAJOR (yes, I'm capitalizing it again) inflection zone. Don't forget Monday is Labor Day, so the market is closed because it's disruptive to have traders going into labor right in the middle of the exchange floor. Trade safe."
"We should finally get a decent correction again once those waves complete."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Since last update, INDU made a new all-time high, as expected:"
"This SPX chart is a wonder to behold:"
"In conclusion, presuming we're dealing with a simple impulsive rally off the August lows, SPX and other indices should need roughly the same 4/5 unwinds that INDU needs, so that chart serves as a reasonable proxy for the broad market right now. We should finally get a decent correction again once those waves complete. Trade safe."
"...SPX and INDU will need at least one or two more 4/5 unwinds higher before completing the wave up from the 3/c low."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"On Friday, Powell wandered out to the microphone from the dark underground depths of Jackson Hole, appearing drunk, grabbed the mic forcefully and muttered something about, "too many lost socks," before passing out, still holding the microphone and drooling.
The market wasn't sure what to make of this, so it traded sideways for the day.
Which means, you guessed it, nothing has really changed from the updates of the past few weeks. Although, INDU has now made a new high to match NYA:"
"SPX appears poised to resolve its previously-discussed probable fourth wave to the upside (which is/was the expected outcome of a fourth wave down, of course)"
"In conclusion, not much else to add other than -- assuming we're in a simple straightforward impulse rally -- a reminder it still looks like SPX and INDU will need at least one or two more 4/5 unwinds higher before completing the wave up from the 3/c low."
"The only question pundits have is whether he'll decide to cut rates by 25 or 50 bps next month......" "...Powell's speech will probably set the tone for today's session....."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"So, the big news since last update is that the BLS (Bureau of Laughable Stupidity) "overestimated" the yearly jobs number by 818,000 jobs. So instead of yearly job creation being 2.9 million, it was 2.1 million -- an overestimation of nearly 40%, which would get the BLS fired from the private sector. This is the biggest yearly revision to the NFP number since the Great Recession, a time when everything was in complete chaos.
Many pundits believe this will give Jerome "the Gnome" Powell the reasons he needs to justify a discussion about cutting interest rates during his Jack's Son Whole speech today (10 a.m. sharp, coat and tie encouraged, but cut-off jeans and t-shirts okay). The only question pundits have is whether he'll decide to cut rates by 25 or 50 bps next month.
Chart-wise, still not a lot to add, but bears are back into a price zone where they do have an option (classic 3-3-5 flats of the "non-expanded" variety need to retrace 90% before they can work, so this wasn't an option at lower prices), even if it appears to be the underdog at the moment:"
"Not much else to add today, Powell's speech will probably set the tone for today's session. Trade safe."
"And, of course, NYA & INDU making new highs, implies SPX will probably follow along with the crowd....."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Since last update, NYA made a new high:"
"This has implications for INDU, since it's almost a clone of the same pattern."
"And, of course, all of that implies SPX will probably follow along with the crowd:"
"In conclusion, at some point, we do need to see a larger fourth wave develop, to pair with the 1s and 2s of the bull nest noted in INDU (so a micro fourth wave within the rally wave since the swing low, then leading to a micro fifth wave for that same rally wave), and it's at least possible that the first wave down (a/1) for that occurred during yesterday's session, though I have little confidence in this market at the moment. Trade safe."
If this is a Bull drive higher the Target would be 5700 +/-
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Ah yes, another day of saying basically the same thing I said in the prior update, which was basically the same thing as the prior update, which was basically the same thing as the prior update...
Supposedly, an infinite regress is impossible, but I'm starting to wonder.
Anyway, since there's not much else to say, I did add an initial bull target to the chart, in the event we're witnessing a straightforward impulsive rally wave unfold from the most recent low:"
"I've added nothing to the INDU chart, because there's nothing to add:"
"In conclusion, there are no new conclusions to be drawn that would add anything substantive to the prior conclusions. Trade safe."
"....if bears are still in the game, they probably need to turn it lower directly......"
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"...for All Good Men to Come to the Aid of Their Country. And it probably is, seeing as we just had a candidate for President (yes, of America, not of some mosquito-ridden third-world country) propose price controls(!) as a "solution" to government-caused inflation, for crying out loud, but that's a whole 'nother discussion.
...for bears to put up or step aside. This was actually my original thought with the "Now Is the Time" title, but you know how word association works, so by the time I started typing, my mind had already moved on to the infamous sentence from old typewriting tests. Which ultimately led us here. And thus the Great Circle of Life is complete.
Anyway, we'll see why (why bears need to put up or step aside, that is, since we got a little sidetracked there) on the following chart:"
"SPX has continued rallying and is now close to overlapping the presumed 2/B high, so here again, the implication is that bears need to make a stand fairly soon:"
"Now, were SPX to overlap 2/b, it doesn't mean there are no other bear options afterwards, it just means there are no easily-tradeable bear options afterwards. Although, frankly, I've felt that way anyway about the market ever since SPX reached its downside target earlier this month, which is part of the reason I didn't rush to stick any new targets or bear labels on the chart.
In conclusion, if bears are still in the game, they probably need to turn it lower directly. If they can't, then it's on to more and more highs forever and ever -- or at least until the price controls kick in and destroy our economy once and for all. Trade safe."
".....it's entirely possible that was it for the downside....."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Since last update, SPX did overlap the first key upside level noted on August 7:"
"COMPQ has also continued its bounce:"
"In conclusion, there's good reason that I stopped providing targets after SPX captured its fourth target (the downside 5100-25), and that's because, as I mentioned, I didn't have any. The 3/c inflection zone was big enough that I felt it unwise to try to see around that corner without enough data to do so accurately -- and I don't regret that decision. As it sits now, if bears are going to make a stand, they probably need to do so fairly directly. Were the markets to sustain trade below their 3/c lows now, that could suggest a big bear nest. That said, as I've warned since we captured that final target, it's entirely possible that was it for the downside. We'll see what the next few sessions bring. Trade safe."
AI
