The more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation is.
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We should not be surprised if the really big money is in the royalty or license.
Here is a mind blower...even if just partly true:
Netlist's $24.55 to $34.27 per module intrinsic value from LRDIMM memory alone (does NOT include RDIMM, NVDIMM, or future royalties from HybriDIMM (NVDIMM-P))
BLUF: Netlist shareholders should have seen $2.28 BILLION in 2016 royalties on LRDIMM modules.
Math:
Netlist SEP estimate on LRDIMM alone:
"Consequently, by a simple arithmetic patent count, Netlist’s SEP portfolio constituted 34 percent of the patents declared essential to the JEDEC standards. Mr. Sidak appropriately did not stop there. He ranked all fifty patents by certain metrics, including forward-citations11 of the fifty identified SEPs listed in subsequently issued patents and forward-citations exclusive of self-citations, meaning a particular patent holder citing its own patents in its subsequently issued patents. Mr. Sidak determined that the Netlist portfolio accounted for 30.77 to 42.96 percent, or $24.55 to $34.27 of this $80 incremental profit per module.
Based on this analysis, Mr. Sidak concluded, a license to Netlist’s LRDIMM-essential portfolio at a royalty in the range of $24.55 per unit would be consistent with Netlist’s RAND obligation." —RAND Royalty Valuation for Netlist’s JEDEC Standard-Essential Patents
Montage Technology IPO estimates for LRDIMM total addressable market in 2016:
"The number of machines using LRDIMM is expected to grow from 2.3 million in 2014 to 3.1 million in 2016, while the average number of LRDIMMs used on a single machine is expected to grow from 4.8 in 2014 to 18.3 in 2016, according to Jon Peddie Research. The increase in number of machines using LRDIMMs and average number of LRDIMMs per machine is expected to drive rapid growth in the potential available market for LRDIMM chipsets, which Jon Peddie Research estimates will increase from up to $312 million in 2014 to as much as $1,958 million in 2016. This would represent a compound annual growth rate of 151% from 2014 to 2016. In terms of unit volume, Jon Peddie Research estimates the potential available market for LRDIMM chipsets will increase from up to 18.4 million units in 2014 to as much as 93.2 million units in 2016. This would represent a compound annual growth rate of 125% from 2014 to 2016. —Montage IPO
Based on an estimated 93.2 million anticipated LRDIMM "modules" (not LRDIMM chipsets) produced in 2016, at $24.55 Netlist royalty per module, Netlist shareholders should have seen $2.28 BILLION in 2016 royalties on LRDIMM modules.
Does anyone have different math?
https://www.reddit.com/r/NLST/comments/od8nz4/netlists_2455_to_3427_per_module_intrinsic_value/
LOL-maybe the guy is dreaming out loud.
Maybe if someone post on ymb regularly they could ask. Posted on R and ST too. That is a huge deal.
I'm sharing a post from ymb because it contains something about 7/19 being the date we get a look at what the settlement might look like. All I'm aware of comes from the "Order setting deadlines" posted here. I've posted 3x to Steve in California asking if he can clarify and my posts maybe went to Mars. Anybody here have anything on the 7/19 settlement positions?
I really thought we would test .63 but for a Friday of a long holiday buyers are patient and strong. Looks bullish to me.
How to Calculate Damages in Patent Infringement Disputes
This is from "The Expert of Experts"
https://www.forensisgroup.com/how-to-calculate-damages-in-patent-infringement-disputes-lost-profits-reasonable-royalties-a-price-erosion-2/
I think it could fly in the face of the idea of G having a board seat at Netlist and/or G owning part of the company. I mean why make such a commitment with SK only to turn around and sell pt of company to G? Maybe there is no conflict but hard to see.
A worthy speculation from Michael
Hypothetical; Hong said Netilst partnered with SK Hynix. Exchanging trade, patent secrets, to open the portfolio of each company, to each other. I think that is a true statement and a fact. We know the deal between Netlist and Hynix. SK Hynix has the resources to compete with, Google, Micron, Marvel/Inphi and Samsung. Is Netlist and Hynix a power play agaisnt the rest of the field? Maybe our competitor's see a big problem for them. Which may create many settlements. Just a thought. Hynix may be our best friend, and we don't know it....
YMB
Bingo!
Supposedly SK deal is worth $640 MM over 5 years and Micron is supposed to be worth a little less. Why doesn't Micron offer $100 MM a yr for 3 years plus some royalties for 5 yrs (to be renegotiated). Boom done.... Anybody?
Realizing 2.35% of coh is $191 MM
Micron Technology cash on hand for 2020 was $8.142B, a 2.35% increase from 2019.
Probably a reminder but omg! G is the one that needs to give it up:
late 2019 Alphabet had $121 BB (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) in cash.
Roth ups Pt to $6
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+PT+Change/Netlist+%28NLST%29+PT+Raised+to+%246+at+Roth+Capital/18632473.html
found on sttwits
Maybe G took what the judge said had to be done- detailed #3, financial discovery pre 2/7/2021 and decided taking N's offer was the lesser of the "weevils".
My favorite post this AM
Idk, so far any dips have been bought, but that was happening in the low 2's. I bet many got shook out during that extended trading range.
That's right and Apple tried for years to control QCOM's patents in court "not fair how much they charge" said Apple. Apple paid through the nose and Q still decides what they charge for their seminal patents. They never "bought work" or sold part of their company. Now clearly Q was in a position of strength, but right now so is N as far as court goes.
CEO sold some nothing new here he has a schedule...https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/USOTC/netlist-qb-NLST/stock-news/85486489/statement-of-changes-in-beneficial-ownership-4
from another board:
Ok here are Judge Albrights standing orders! These orders apply to the Micron case in Waco Texas that come before Judge Albright.
https://www.txwd.uscourts.gov/judges-information/standing-orders/
Thanks for clarifying, yes we are at the judge's discretion. Let's all hope in the end shrholders benefit and N is made whole.
Yes the rally feels AWESOME! But I miss spoke about money being talked about. Daylas reminded me G told the judge N had made an offer and said "we can work with this". Of course I immediately remembered. I bet that judge is wondering "what ever happened to "we can work with this"?"
I think the judge got a clearer look at what G's strategy is last Friday. Let's hope he does not respect it.
Yeah they haven’t even started to talk “how much”! N is still trying to get G to show them enough so they(N) will be able to determine level of infringement and if it differs than level G claims.
I’m pretty sure (would love to be wrong) that triple damages are at the judges discretion.
I view it as an abundance of caution.
Stumbled on this from ItsYourDad:
$NLST
@MRFoxMulder Wins- pursuant to the August 14 8-K the rights agreement was extended to April 2024. This date was included in the May filing of the 10Q was after the SK Hynix deal so the Pill is definitely still in place... I stand firm with 2 things, however:
Nobody is getting 51% of this company w/o pushing the price over $6.56 and my wife still doesn't give a shit about lil' old NutLust.
So true!
HIGHER HIGH!!!!!!!
Friday’s meeting confirmed G knows all they can do is play the defense of a guilty as charged defendant. That’s a big confirmation, at least for me.
Thank you, I figure if it happens sooner it’s a gift
Mine is all in a Roth. Just think would be foolish to sell this low.
Would you say that if it takes 3-6 months?
So happy to have some shares, with the shorts having covered maybe this moves back over $1 to stay.
I sold some on last run (happily) but at this timing NOT! I will be buying dips.
Im guessing that gap maybe one of those that never closes entirely.
It’s taken till that post to get that clear on what judge and attorneys were saying.
Sheasby came prepared to use those few minutes he had the judge’s ear, to win. He directed the conversation with stealth, to insure the judge had to ask him (Sheasby) the questions he want to answer.
Well they are admitting it, that’s why they are asking for equitable intervening rights.
It’s a way of reducing liability. Not sure how Netlist figured out they could expand discovery into pre 2/7/2021 by requesting it (discovery) for DDR4 but it has opened a can of worms for G. They were definitely not expecting to be told the discovery rules for post 2/7/21 now apply to the 4 previous years and maybe 7 years.
When Sheasby asked the judge for discovery pre 2/07/21 on 16 and the judge asked G attorney a few pointed questions the attorney finally said "there's a subset of modules" meaning pre 2/07/21. It is not hard to find the phrase "multiple servers per module" on-line just to put "subset of modules" in perspective. Also from Sheasby this is about DDR4's which per reddit were introduced to market in 2014. Sheasby goes on to ask for access to the profits generated during that time and the level of infringement and the judge agreed. So that "subset" could have been operating for years, maybe still.