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Agree 100%. If a take out happens it will be up to shareholders to decide so we cannot blame anyone but ourselves in that case. I do think most long term shareholders that are left are indeed in this for the LONG TERM so they won't accept any offer for say under a billion dollars. I know Keith would be very vocal against any deal he feels does not unlock the true value of the assets and would try to communicate this to shareholders.
I really want FFMG to reveal the plan they have been working regarding the Duparquet operation. Dan has still stated they will release this plan during this year, so I will be very disappointed if he cannot deliver on this. Getting revenue from a smaller starter pit by trucking ore to nearby mills would be a total game changer for the company. Even if that revenue was small initially it would still turn us into a completely different company with actual real income. Would also be very good for longer term shareholders to get a non-dilutive source of financing.
I also think they should just sell the Cameron project at this point if they can get a decent deal on that property. While it is a good asset for sure, it is still non-strategic for the company longer term.
The bigger players making these record cash flows makes me both excited and nervous at the same time. I'm excited about the fact that they earn billions which they can then use for M&A since we all know that capital shortage is a very big concern for the developer/junior space. It also makes me nervous because I'm afraid we might get taken out too cheaply. For a mid to larger producer buying FFMG for say 500m or so would be an absolute steal and not that much of a problem in the current market. This is my biggest fear because that would basically ruin the long term scenario I have been hoping for. The only way Keith would do something like this with First Majestic would probably be if he feels there is no way out i.e. he has to make a somewhat better counteroffer to a hostile bid. In this case, I think we would just receive First Majestic shares for our FFMG shares in an all share deal for a combined company. This would be totally fine for me although probably not the most attractive right now.
Dream scenario would still be to do a JV of sorts with First Majestic on Springpole and then get that starter pit going without a partner if at all possible. First Majestic could always buy the remaining interest in Springpole (or even FFMG itself) at a later date when cash flows are better.
Yes, actually I just finished watching that interview today and my thoughts were sort of the same from the comments he made about First Majestic being bigger in the near future and that it would happen through M&A. Keith is at heart an investment banker and making M&A deals is his "bread and butter" when it comes to the mining business.
In that other recent interview, Dan stated quite openly that the company would probably not be developing Springpole on its own and that it would more likely than not require a partner simply because access to capital is very bad right now. He also said it would probably be in the form of a JV with a 50% interest or more. Sure, if the market does turn very bullish then he said it would be totally possible to raise the money and assemble a team to develop the mine on their own. My bet is still that First Majestic would be interested first and foremost in Springpole simply because it will soon be permitted and they already own the silver stream there. Like you said, I mean when you really think about it it's quite obvious this has been the plan all along. Springpole having a clearly defined silver resource would also make it an easy sell with First Majestic shareholders. Before they make the move on FFMG though, they would first need to clear up the operation at Jerritt Canyon to get the "green light" for further acquisitions. Jerritt Canyon should be back in business in 2026 so I would expect a potential deal with FFMG to be made around that time. Sure, they could still announce the JV/partnership much earlier than that.
You could maybe argue about why First Majestic did not buy First Mining outright back in 2021 rather than Jerrit Canyon, but First Mining was still not a viable target back then because Keith has stated very clearly he wants assets to be permitted before they make a move with First Majestic. Jerritt Canyon, despite all of its recent problems, was still a very cheap acquisition if they get that asset back into producing 200k+ gold oz per year. Springpole will by all recent estimates be permitted around Q4 2025 which fits perfectly into the picture with the Jerritt Canyon recovery timeline.
Yes, we have not really seen any insider buying from Keith in months, could maybe be a deal brewing for all we know. James Maxwell is part of the insider register and he did purchase shares in June under a prospectus exemption, but I'm not actually sure what the insider trading rules say about that. Keith not buying for many months would definitely make me wonder if there is something bigger coming up. There has been some periods before where he did not buy for a while but usually he then comes back and buys a lot. And he did buy a lot of shares during H1 after also buying 10m shares in the latest financing round so there is that.
In the interview, he did again bring up the fact that the tech sector has been sucking up massive amounts of investor capital over the years and that we would need a significant correction before that capital would start to seek new avenues for growth. I am definitely in the same camp here.
I recommend to go and read about the recent acquisition of the Greenstone mine by Equinox Gold. It really shines a good light on what we can expect to see with regards to future deals with FFMG's assets. Equinox Gold purchased the remaining 40% interest it did not own in the Greenstone mine for $995m. Take a close look at the operating metrics for the Greenstone project and then compare them to what we have in Sprinpole:
Greenstone Mine:
- 5.05 million ounces life-of-mine gold production.
- More than 400,000 ounces average annual gold production for the first five years.
- More than 360,000 ounces average annual gold production over the initial 14-year mine life.
- 5.54 million ounces of Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves grading 1.27 grams per tonne gold.
- $1.23 billion initial capital (C$1.53 billion at spot rate of USD:CAD 1.25), including $125 million for the mining fleet of which approximately $100 million could be leased to reduce the upfront cash spend.
- 14-year initial mine life with expansion potential from underground and near-mine deposits.
- 800 local and 1,300 regional jobs during construction, 500 jobs during operations, plus numerous opportunities for indirect and support businesses in the region.
Springpole Mine:
- Probable Reserves of 3.8 million ounces gold at 0.97 g/t, 20.5
million ounces silver at 5.2 g/t and M&I resources of around 5 million ounces gold.
-Average annual gold production of 335,000 ounces in years 1
through 9 and LOM production of around 287 000 ounces annually.
-Length of mine 11,3 years with potential expansion in near mine deposits.
-$718 million initial capital costs and another $55m in sustaining capex.
-Around 700 jobs created during life of mine (think I read this in the draft EA)
Benchmarking against Greenstone, a fully EA permitted Springpole would definitely be a $1 billion+ acquisition if it comes to wanting a 100% interest in the project. Both projects are quite similar. It really does not matter that the Springpole deposit sits under a lake. It's just a technical issue which bigger miners are very familiar with in Canada. Equinox also made agreements with several First Nations to develop the mine, so there really is no obstacle with FN's unless you completely ignore them and their needs. Cat Lake (and other FN's) will 100% be onboard with Springpole when they see other FN's getting good jobs and new infrastructure from other mining projects.
Also look at what the CEO of Equinox Gold commented about the Greenstone acquisition:
“Opportunities to own gold mines like Greenstone are incredibly rare in our industry, and the Greenstone Mine will now be the foundation for long-term value creation in our company."
This is probably the biggest thing investors are missing in the FFMG story. They really don't seem to understand how incredibly rare these bigger 5m+ oz. gold deposits are. With recent acquisitions like these, you can be 100% sure the bigger players are very well aware of FFMG's assets. What I think they are waiting for is the EA permit submission because given the current bad sentiment in the sector I think they are still in no rush to acquire assets. Another reason could also be that they know Keith will instantly counter with a better offer from First Majestic if they try to do a hostile takeover. FM still owns close to 2% of FFMG I believe, at least according to their investor presentation, and Keith is not exactly known to gently step aside in such a situation. It is very possible FFMG has already received offers for deals but turned them down because of Keith being very greedy with the assets (as he should). Dan did say in an interview they have signed several non-disclosure agreements with companies over the years so for sure there has been a lot of talks already behind the scenes.
Yup, really does suck to wait for years, but it is what it is. Just like to remind everyone that when this stock has turned in the past it usually shoots up 4-5x in a matter of a few weeks/months. Happened first in 2016 and then again in 2020. I expect FFMG to shoot up 5-10x in a month or two when this entire sector finally turns bullish again and we get some major deals done. Could easily even go higher than that. In 2016, this company was a very different company and the portfolio was much much more risky than what we have now. Still, the company was valued at a 650m market cap. Why? Simply because investor sentiment suddenly changed. In 2020, investor sentiment suddenly changed again and a single bigger institutional investor buying the stock caused it to rise 4-5X in a few months. This is what will happen eventually. It's pretty much inevitable.
There is just so much stored up energy in the gold space after such a brutal multi year bear market. During longer bear markets most of the shares move from weak hands into strong hands, so when the sector finally turns bullish the available float of shares for trading will be quite limited. This can cause spectacular gains in share prices in a very short time when you get the capital rushing back to buy the sector. This was definitely the case after the 20 year bear market we had from 1980-2000 when the mining sector was super hated, sort of what we have right now. Back then, you could also buy miners for pennies on the dollar. After the "dot com crash" when investor capital finally shifted from tech to commodities many shares in the sector rose 20-50x in a few years. It then continued and finally peaked in the 2010/11 gold and silver stock mania.
Thinking about our setup right now, we have two of the largest gold assets getting developed and ready for permits, gold/silver prices have clearly broken out into a new upwards cycle, and we have Keith and his management in place. All stars really are aligning for us here. The only thing missing really is the investor sentiment. Sure, like you said, any and all news about deals to develop the assets are welcome, but until we get the sentiment change nothing meaningful will happen. So the question really becomes, what will cause investors to change course and bring capital back in to miners? My opinion is still that we must get a BIG CRASH in the "mag 7" and AI type stocks. Investors must be scared
Yes, I agree Dan could definitely have handed it better overall with regards to clearly stating it to be a challenge to give specific dates. I guess he has felt pressure as a CEO to at least try to appeal to shareholders in some way by always giving some definite timeline. Most investors these days are just so impatient it is very hard as a CEO to tell your investors you have no idea when the final EA submission will happen. I can understand this.
Having said that, like I have stated before I still believe Keith is the real "invisible hand" behind this company and he is a very long term investor so he just does not care how long it takes to permit the mine. He has stated in recent videos permitting is a very long game and you just have to be patient if you get involved in these stocks. There really is no way around it. He has said the payday in this stock will most likely come when they will do major deals on the two flagship assets. If Keith actually cared about the share price day to day and he thought another CEO could do a better job then believe me, he would have fired Dan on the spot. But since he still has Dan as CEO tells me we are on the right track in Keith's mind. After all, most of us invested in this company due to Keith's track record in the industry. Nobody invested in this company because Dan is the CEO.
I really really doubt the share price would be much higher right now if we had someone else in place as a CEO. This company suffers like all the others in the entire industry due to a lack of investor sentiment. Like would it even matter if the share price was say 20cents or 30 cents or even 40 cents? I still would be holding on to my stock until we are either bought out or at least valued at a billion dollars minimum. Sure it would be psychologically a relief to have the share price higher but it really does not change this situation. Even at a slightly higher share price we would still be in the exact same situation waiting for a final EA submission and for major deals to be announced for Springpole and Duparquet.
I hate to say it, but we still just have to wait.... but like they say, good things come to those who can wait.
Thanks for the video. Just really want to emphasize this issue about when they submit the final EA. Steve Lines have repeatedly said it is very difficult to give an exact date when it's going to happen because the most important thing is to do it right. The final submission will happen in H2, that's more or less baked in now and comletely fine for me. I understand it is very frustrating for long term shareholders because we all want potential catalysts for the lagging share price, but believe me it is crucial that we get this EA done right. It will only lead to more delays and problems down the road if we half ass this process. Steve and his team knows this business better than any of us so they will do the final EA submission when he feels the time is right and every issue has been addressed.
Yeah, that answer about "crossing his mind" etc. might just have been a way to keep his FM shareholders calm about any new merger plans since the Jeritt Canyon mine shutdown was probably seen as quite a negative even though I think it will be a great asset for FM long term as well. You do make a strong case about this all being about merging the two companies eventually. I really do believe Keith wants the assets for himself if there is a scenario to develop them within one company or in partnership with FM.
The question is as always in what way it will be financed. These are very big assets and will cost almost a billion dollar each to develop, but this is not going to be that big of a problem if the gold and silver prices keep rising and FM will make several hundred millions of free cash flow in the years ahead. FM is now projected to make 150-200m per year in FCF during 2025 and 2026 and it is very probable that trend will just get stronger from here to say 2030 and onwards. It means they will probably make a billion in FCF in the next 5 years or so. In such a scenario it won't be that hard to get financing for at least one of the projects. I still think it will be Springpole because they already own that silver stream and Keith has said he likes to buy projects that are permitted and ready for construction. It will be an easy sell for FM shareholders once the Jeritt Canyon is again up and running and he can prove he still got the eye for good assets.
It will be very interesting to see how the economy / markets will do under Trump. I would really hope the "AI tech bust" would come before he is elected so it is absolutely clear that it was a bubble under Biden and not in any way Trumps making. I think he will be very pro business and his policies will be wildly inflationary and good for gold. Rates will probably be cut and fiscal stimulus will be directed towards industry/ infrastructure / military spending. The debt will probably explode under Trump too, I don't really care who is in charge. The US faces a structural fiscal problem which it really cannot solve any more. The only way really is to keep inflating the debt.
The dream scenario for me would of course be that we partner up with First Majestic to develop the assets ourselves. That really is what I have been wishing for all these years and I would probably never sell in that scenario unless the shares get ridiculously overvalued at times during manias. This would mean we get to develop both assets with Keith's long term visions of maybe eventually merging the two companies and form one new giant gold/silver mining company focused on North-America. This scenario would really create generational wealth that I would want to pass on to my kids.
Keith did say in one interview that it has crossed his mind and that he would "love to do it". First Majestic is of course according to their strategy focused on silver assets but they still generate 50% of revenue from gold sales. They did buy Jeritt Canyon (a gold asset) but had to shut it down now temporarily while they develop the asset. I think it is still very much a possibility that we might do a deal with First Majestic on either Springpole or Duparquet. First Majestic already owns the silver stream on Springpole anyways so it would not be that much for FM shareholders to digest I think if it was announced. Having said that, Keith did say in many interviews that for FM to buy an asset it has to either be in production or be permitted for production so that might give us some clues. I think Springpole would therefore be the logical choice here for a JV with FM.
I hope you are right about the shareholder base being in it for the long term, and I certainly won't give up my shares easily after such a long wait. I can so easily visualize where this company will be in the future. The assets are there, we just need time to work the magic.
Yes, I'm also definitely in this for the long term. I think Keith will of course do what he perceives to be the best deal for the company. Just based upon what he has said in interviews and webinars it is quite clear he wants these assets developed into mines asap. Obviously he would like the assets to be developed by the company itself, but that might not always be the easiest and most feasible scenario. It will depend upon many factors when the time comes to close a deal on both Springpole and Duparquet. If I had to guess I would think we are going down a JV route of sorts where First Mining will remain with a big project interest (maybe 30-49%) in both mines, hopefully free carried to a decision to mine. Hopefully this would be done with a senior / mid tier producer. I think for long-term investors this would make the most money since we would participate in the upward cycle in gold prices when the mines get operational. It would also turn us into an actual gold mining company with substantial assets on the books. With Duparquet this could be done in a step by step fashion with a partner where we start out smaller and then grow in time. Also remember that we still own a 30% interest in Pickle Crow which is by no means a small project, something like 3m oz. if I remember correctly.
But it is also still a likely scenario that we will get taken out by a major and that is the scenario I am most worried about because it would then be up to the shareholders vote. The problem is that there are a lot of frustrated shareholders who would probably be happy to settle for a fraction of the real value in this company and they would then vote for the take over. I'm sure Keith would be trying his best to tell shareholders not to accept the bid in this case, but if shareholders want to sell then there is nothing we can do. I would certainly vote NO for any bid less than a billion dollars (USD). A billion dollars would still be way undervalued compared to what I think these assets will be worth in the next 5-10 years, but we might have to accept this outcome.
Yeah, no insiders have sold any shares either so if a deal is indeed in the making then they are all in a locked period until an announcement is made. Of course, there have been periods before where Keith has not bought any shares in the open market, but usually he is in there at least every other month or so. Keep in mind he has bought almost 2m shares on the open market just during Q1, and he bought 10m shares in the December financing round. Deal negotiations can take a long time and it is possible Keith loaded up on shares during Q4/23-Q1/24 because maybe he knew that they would eventually end up in a period where he cannot buy any more shares. But whatever, this is just pure speculation on my part, lets hope a big deal is soon accounced!
We are now flirting with all time highs with gold and i suspect silver will soon join the party and get a massive spike up in the price to around $35-40 or so by the end of the year.
Springpole is the next big gold asset to get permitted and Duparquet is by the looks of it the next +10m ounce monster deposit ready for further development. And we have both assets in the same company. There is just no way in hell the bigger players won't buy these assets at some point if the gold price keeps rising. I mean if Duparquet is defined as a 10m+ oz. asset it could be another multi billion dollar asset with $2500-3000 gold. I think we are sitting right now at the very least on $2 billion of pure net asset value in the company. This company "should" trade like easily north of a dollar (CAD) in the current development phase.
I'm planning on making one final purchase here soon, but I will wait for the tech stocks to correct big time first because I want to see how the sector reacts to the incoming "AI tech bust".
Just a thought that crossed my mind: Maybe a deal is in the making and Keith (and other insiders) are forbidden from buying more shares because it would be insider trading. Not saying this is the case but certainly could be an explanation for him not buying for a while. No other insiders have bought either. Could possibly be a deal in the making and an upcoming announcement soon. But it is of course possible he just did not buy any for a month or two and will buy maybe 500k shares next time.
Just my two cents regarding nationalization. I think this is a very remote risk in Canada given the already rapidly shifting political sentiment for Trudeau's government. The mining sector goes back hundreds of years and is still a meaningful contributor to GDP / taxes / jobs / etc. It would cause a massive uproar / protests / strikes if that were to happen so it just does not make any political sense to do it and it would be a very inefficient way to solve the problem. The governments of Ontario and Quebec would also definitely challenge any form of nationalization initiative seeing over 70% of the Gold in Canada is produced in those two regions. It would just be a total mess.
If the government would actually go down that route to acquire gold reserves it would be much more prudent for them to keep the sector private and then just demand 100% of the gold to be sold to the government at a specific price, maybe at a slight discount or something similar. That price would more or less have to equal the current market price for gold because otherwise this would bankrupt the entire industry in time, again undermining the entire thing. It's always possible the governments will f things up, but I still consider this a very low probability event.
Or the government could just buy gold outright or make lease arrangements with other countries who do own large gold reserves. Canada produces something like 200 tons of gold per year so it would take many years for the government just to acquire any decent amount of reserves in this scenario, it would just be such a stupid idea.
Outright confiscating mining assets is much more of a risk in third world countries and it always ends up in disaster. We saw what just happened in Panama with the large copper mine and that makes it look very bad for foreign investment. I actually think the nationalization that took place in Panama only makes the assets in Canada / US make look even more attractive. The bigger gold miners need to acquire assets and because its a billion dollar multi decade long investment the question of jurisdiction has never been more important than now. We are sitting on two of the largest undeveloped gold assets in Canada, people still don't understand how rare these assets actually are. It will be recognized soon enough by the majority and a rising gold price.
Canada is still after all a very good jurisdiction, especially Ontario and Quebec where our assets are located are some of the most sought after mining districts on the planet.
Agreed. There are just so many potential catalysts in the near term, both on the macro and micro/company level. At some point this ship will turn and I suspect this could be a very violent turn when it happens. I have been a shareholder in First Mining since 2015 and both in 2016 and 2020 the share price rose something like 3-4X in a matter of a few months simply due to a temporary investor sentiment change. I suspect this time around, when we truly have made the turn, the share price could skyrocket 5-10x in a month or two simply because the stored up energy built up during this massive multiyear bear market is incredible. The only question really is will we get taken over too cheaply before that happens. I pray to God that is not the case after such a long wait. This is a billion dollar company in the making.
Yes, the mine will get the permit no doubt. It will be a massive driver of infrastructure, roads, jobs and so much more down the road. There could be new schools and hospitals built and anything really if they all can work together here. Like you said the permanent new road network is what the communities want and desperately need. Many communities (not just Cat Lake) have been reliant upon ice roads and air transport for supplies and food, both of which are very inconvenient, costly and also prone to accidents. Also, warmer winters make the ice roads very dangerous to use and not a viable long term solution for the FNs. That is why they need and want the roads so bad. This is where the parties will have to come to the table, agree on a plan and make it happen.
Regarding the timeline after final EA submission, it really depends upon negotiations and what kind of issue they still are going back and forth on with the government, but Steve said in the last "EA webinar" that he expects permits to be granted before the end of 2025. He said this estimate is just from benchmarking Springpole to the similar previous Hardrock project which he also permitted. I believe we are well positioned to receive the EA permit in Q4 2025 / Q1 2026. Lots of things can happen with Duparquet also before that so we are really now in the last phase of this very painful waiting period. Keith is looking after our interests you can be sure about that.
For me there was nothing new here since I watch and read pretty much everything about the company, but the key passage I believe is the following:
Beyond just delivering mining jobs to locals, he said planning all the mine-related infrastructure involves designing a permanent road that will connect Cat Lake to Sioux Lookout, a regional administrative hub for many remote Indigenous communities.
He said there are sections of existing roads, “in terrible shape,” with no evidence of maintenance, that are used by neighboring Slate Falls First Nation.
First Mining CEO Dan Wilton added, based on feedback from a recent community meeting in Cat Lake, construction of a permanent road continues to be a local priority. The company is supportive of this infrastructure and hopes the provincial and federal governments can make that a reality.
My own theory (also confirmed by Dan and Steve) is that Cat Lake is not at all against Springpole, but they really want that permanent road developed. I think what investors should notice here is that the ministry was the one issuing the permit for the temporary winter road and also evidently was the party who offered a settlement agreement to Cat Lake which they then accepted. This tells me that the government of Ontario still has a very big interest in getting this mine developed i.e. the EA permit will be issued to the project no doubt. If Cat Lake really was hellbent against this whole mine being developed then I think they would have made that very clear already, but they have not. They have very specifically said they are not at all against development, they just want to be included in the EA process and benefit from the road and better infrastructure.
First Mining and Cat Lake seem to be having very good dialogue right now according to Steve and I think this is very important. You just can't ignore this community in this current phase, it will just lead to more litigation if they don't include them in the process. We need all of the three parties working together with clear goals and benefits. First Mining and it's investors will get the mine, Cat Lake and other FNs will get the infrastructure and jobs, and the government will get massive tax revenues. It really is a win/win/win situation when they all partner up and this is where we are heading no doubt.
Like Steve said in the recent EA webinar, there really is nothing unique about Springpole. Every issue this project is facing has been resolved before in other mining projects of much bigger scope. The environmental impact of Springpole really is not that big and there is a lot of good previous work which they can utilize here in the final EA. He made the point though about doing this thing RIGHT. That means that they take their time to make sure they have addressed every single detail which the government and Cat Lake have raised about the project. You just can't halfass this EA process in anyway and that is why it sometimes takes longer than investors think.
Yup, that's sort of what I see happening here. The Mag 7 bubble must deflate before investor sentiment will shift. It must become absolutely clear to everyone that the "AI trade" is over. We will probably need a big crash big enough to scare all the retail speculators as well because they are still trying to swing trade everything tech related. It will probably also take a recession and dropping corporate profits to start this crash for real.
I think I read a while ago that bigger investors (hedge funds / pension funds/ family offices) are already dumping tech stocks on a net basis so the retail investors will once again be left holding the bag.
After this bubble has deflated the "big money" will look for a new trade and that is when gold / silver / commodities / oil will really start to shine. Then you will get all of the "performance chasers" coming into the trade as well and that is when we will see the big sentiment shift I am envisioning. This is exactly how it played out after the tech bust back in the early 2000's, I remember that very well. Whether the gold miners will make new lows before that is to be seen because I think the sector is much more beaten down now than it was back then, it has been an absolutely brutal bear market in miners the last 5 years or so. If we get a real bank panic / liquidity crush then for sure everything will probably drop until the Fed comes to the rescue, but if we just get a bad recession then I think miners could start to outperform a lot faster than people think. Either way, I think we are still perfectly positioned here with FFMG if and when this shift occurs. Exciting times!
You are right here in that we won't probably see any actual cash flow from Duparquet for a while, even if they were to develop the starter pit. The important thing would be to just get an announcement that they have a solid plan in place to get that asset into production with a partner, the market would then discount that news release by all logic into the share price.
I think the additional drilling is the right thing to do here in the sense that I agree the more ounces they can show at Duparquet the more meaningful the asset becomes. And they have been able to show with the recent drill results this resource will definitely be among the largest in the region. The bigger companies are definitely not interested in smaller projects right now and even though they are making record free cash flows they are still conservative in their acquisitions. The bigger projects are the ones to get acquired first and if Duparquet really becomes a 10m+ ounce asset with the recent drilling then there is no way this has not been noticed by the industry. I don't think most investors realize how rare assets of this kind are, especially in good jurisdictions. The Greenstone hardrock project interest was recently acquired for 1.36B (CAD) so that sets some reference to what these kinds of projects will be acquired for. That deposit was a 5.5m ounce asset so keep that in mind when thinking about what Springpole and Duparquet (a potential 10m+ oz asset) will be acquired for when developed.
This is nothing but a waiting game at this point, it's boring as hell in terms of share price action but important things are happening not only in the company but the sector as well. What the eventual spark will be nobody knows. I suspect it will be a combination of things that gets the party going the most important of which will be higher highs in the gold price and increasing investor sentiment.
People often forget that when we talk about "sentiment" in general we refer to the Western world. Gold is very much in demand right now all over Asia (esp. China) and also in many developing countries. It's just that the G7 economies and their "financial capital" move the markets more than anything else, so we need to get them onboard the "gold train" once again.
I still think we are going to need a big crash in the "Mag 7" stocks and all of their ilk before the bigger capital starts to seek new avenues for investment. A sort of tech bust 2.0 is how I see this playing out which will then cause the Fed to panic and lower rates and start big QE programs once more which will lead to a massive devaluation in the USD. The USD will not become worthless by any means but it will just go down in value vs other currencies and gold in particular.
New interview from Ron's basement with Dan. Nothing new in particular but he is still saying we will soon get a sort of "step by step" development plan for Duparquet. I am still of the opinion that Duparquet will be the project that will first get a partnership announcement simply because it will probably be seen as less risky with more favorable optionality for developing the asset. I truly hope we will get a partner here so we can start developing this asset by first trucking and processing tailings and then slowly but surely increasing the operation every year. This is THE CATALYST this company would need right now. Even if we get the final EA submission done in September (which is indeed a big deal) I still think the reaction in the share price will be mute as long as the sentiment continues to be bad.
You guys need to understand that Keith is the real force behind everything here. This is his "darling company" which he built from scratch. This means (in my honest opinion) that he could not care less if retail investors don't have the patience to wait this thing out or not. He has stated many times he is a very long term investor and that is how he views his investment in FFMG as well. If smaller retail investors get angry and sell their stock during the development phase then it really does not mean anything to him. He keeps buying shares more or less every month and the company is raising money from Keith and his group of people on quite a regular basis. I understand it has been mostly his circle of friends and other company insiders that participate in the private placements which means small retail investors are completely irrelevant in the bigger picture when it comes to financing this company. As long as this company can raise money from the PPs and keep moving the projects forward (as they have done) then Keith just sits back and let's management do their job. When you are a multi millionaire like Keith it is much more easier to be patient and have a long term view of this story. When you are a small retail investor then I understand it is very easy to get frustrated because you are envisioning your 5-10x to happen every year yet it does not materialize. I have been trough this "waiting phase" myself back when I was an early investor in First Majestic Silver so I know what we are going through, but I must admit it has been difficult at times because I have a very large position in this company.
Of course, this reality also puts Dan into a quite an uncomfortable position as a CEO because he has to keep on trying to convince the smaller retail investor base to keep believing in the story although he knows very well this thing is in reality being financed by a small circle of people/insiders as well as monetizing the other smaller assets and royalties. This is also why I think Keith likes Dan to be the CEO because Dan definitely has a big personal commitment to the company in the form of 10m shares (all mostly bought through PPs) and also believes in what they are trying to achieve. He has also assembled a good team that has the goods to take this company to the permit finish line. That is really all we need as investors as well. The payout in this investment will really only come when we get a major development going and good sentiment returning to the sector.
Sure, you can of course argue that it would have been very prudent to get the share price up so that previous financing rounds could have been done with a much higher share price and prevent unnecessary issuance of shares. But since the entire sector has literally been "dead" for many years then I think Keith & Dan has just decided it to be more important to raise whatever money they can and just keep on moving the projects forward. I really don't think there is much Dan or any other CEO could have done differently to make the share price go up when the entire sector is under water. Even the best gold mining development companies have had their shares pounded very bad and I really think FFMG is among the best you can place your money in right now.
If you really believe in this story then there is really nothing else you can do other than to keep accumulating shares on a regular basis (just like Keith) and wait this thing out. If you don't have the patience then you are free to sell your stock and invest your money somewhere else. This is why I mostly tell newer investors to avoid the mining sector entirely because it is a very different game. It is probably the toughest industry on the planet and the risks are very material.
Having said that, I can also tell you that the gains that are possible to make in this sector are truly spectacular once you hit a "jackpot" and sentiment turns. I made a incredible amount of money with First Majestic some 15-20 years ago but it took several ups and downs to get there. I see the exact thing happening once again with FFMG and that is why I have invested a significant amount into this company. If this entire thing ends up failing then I can live with that and I won't go broke, actually far from it.
Yeah, this should be interesting! I really have high hopes for this starter pit operation if they can get that going with or without a partnership I really feel it would light a fire under the share price and make it skyrocket. Not only that but the recent drill results from Duparquet really suggests this should easily be a 10m+ ounce asset, Dan also stated that it could be as much as 15-20m ounces over the years with more drilling. Duparquet might very well be the real "ace in the sleeve" which gets this party going for FFMG if and when they can get a clear and concise plan to develop that asset. Even if the cash flow would be minimal at first it would still turn us into an actual mining company, which would be huge news. Investors don't seem to understand how big and meaningful this asset is.
I think you said before that the best scenario we could hope for right now would be to get a deal on Duparquet to develop that starter pit with a partner and then direct that cash flow down the line to develop Springpole once the permits are in place while also further developing the Duparquet operation over time once more permits are in place there. I understand the FFMG team is 100% focused right now on finalizing the EA submission for Springpole and getting that project to the finish line which makes it difficult to direct resources to developing Duparquet and that is why a partnership would be ideal here.
Yeah, at least Ontario is definitely keeping the Progressive Conservatives in power until 2026 and beyond because there is no way in hell people in that region will vote for more "Trudeau" type of candidates and policies. I suspect Quebec to be in the same camp as well. This will benefit FFMG and the entire mining sector. People in Canada are really fed up with Trudeau and his ridiculous leftist liberal policies. This will show in the coming elections next year and beyond.
I think what's most important for investors to take note here is that it was the Ministry that offered the settlement agreement agreed upon by both parties. After all they were the ones issuing the temp winter road permit in the first place. This signals to me the government has a very strong interest to move this project forward and they helped smooth things along between both parties. This was very good news for all of us because it indicates that the parties involved (FFMG/CLFN(Ministry) are all able to cooperate and come to agreements regarding Springpole. Like I have been saying for years this project is such a cash flow monster for the entire region and everyone involved there's just no way this won't get developed.
While we don't know for sure what kind of agreement they settled upon, my suspicion is that Cat Lake has been offered some kind of compensation for the Winter road + promises to further develop the road network towards Cat Lake and maybe some new assistance from the government. It really does not matter to me, what matters is that the parties can work together. In this industry you need cooperation or you won't get big things done.
With the recent great drill results at Duparquet and now this settlement agreement with Cat Lake, I feel very good going forward. I actually bought a bunch of shares yesterday just because I felt so good about this.
Believe me when I say the bigger miners are definitely noticing these two recent press releases.
Having said all of this, nothing will probably happen with the share price until a major deal gets announced i.e. the company gets taken out OR we get massive improvement in sentiment. Sentiment is what drives the share price in the end and right now we are probably at all time lows for the mining sector regarding this.
I have kind of mixed feelings about Dan as a CEO. One one hand it is of course clear that the share price has done nothing but gone down under his leadership. But how much can we really blame Dan for this? We have had a absolutely terrible sentiment in the entire mining sector. Just look at all of the gold mining shares from juniors all the way to the bigger players. They are all suffering from the same negative sentiment. The fact still is is that FFMG has managed to advance the projects exactly as they have been promising. Yes, it has taken longer than originally thought, but they have still been able to push forward during a time when many other juniors/developers have gone bust. FFMG has a lot of retail investors who are impatient and many do not understand that these things really take YEARS to develop and most of them fail, mind you. This is a very risky business by nature. That should be clear.
I think Dan is the right guy because he has a big personal stake in the company and he obviously believes in the vision they are trying to achieve here. He told me in a personal call that he has a significant portion of his family's net worth invested in this company so at least the dude is definitely aligned with us as shareholders. Would he really gamble his entire family fortune on a long shot? Also, I think Dan's strength might actually be that he comes across more as a "Soft & Friendly CEO" rather than a "Cut-Your-Throat Ruthless Mining CEO". This is especially important right now when we find ourselves in a situation where they need to deal with the people at Cat Lake with lots of emotions involved. There is always politics involved in mining affairs and I really think Dan's (and Steve's) personality will be an asset when dealing with the Cat Lake situation and negotiations with other First Nations down the line. I can almost guarantee that if you had a total jerk as a CEO in FFMG who could not care less about the First Nations we would face even more resistance and there could be lots of litigations down the line.
I think Keith is more of the classical "ruthless businessman" type of CEO and I am most certain he would have fired Dan already if he did not think the guy was the one to pull this off. This company is still Keith's darling and he has over 30m shares in the company, almost all of which have been bought in the open market. Keith has basically stated in every single interview that nothing has changed regarding the plans for FFMG. They will keep pushing until they get the permits done and then they will look for a partner to develop the mine or even do it themselves. I don't know how this story will end but my money is on Keith here definitely. Without him as a major shareholder, I would have never invested in FFMG. He is the biggest asset in the company. Keep in mind he probably talks with Dan almost every day about company issues, so in a sense you could say that Keith is sort of a "shadow CEO" behind the scenes. In many interviews you can very clearly see the dynamic between Dan & Keith and it is clear that Keith often tells Dan what to do behind the scenes.
I can only tell from my own experience in investing in miners that things seldom go as you think they will. Mining is probably the toughest industry on the planet and there are so many factors and surprises you need to be dealing with as a CEO. It just takes a lot of perseverance and focus to be able to pull off what FFMG is trying to do.
Sentiment is still in the toilet so as I suspected there is not much of a reaction in the share price. But this was definitely good news and shows they are able to drill good holes with the money raised. This is exactly the kind of news big players are looking at. They want to know this resource is able to sustain itself for a long time with additional drilling.
You are correct in that it would be a massive catalyst if Dan laid out plans to for the starter pit operation with or without a partner because that would basically turn the company into a miner. A small one sure but still a miner with real revenues. If I recall correctly Dan said a month or so ago that the regional mining plans for Duparquet should be out in 3-4 months or so, so I guess we should hear about this before the end of summer.
I think we are definitely still on the right path here. People should not get too upset about the recent financing and newly issued shares. The important thing to keep in mind here is that the company is still able to raise good money from the market during a time when most other juniors/developers are basically going broke as we speak. I am following the other similar companies like like FFMG and many have already gone bust due to no funding available. The fact that FFMG is able to raise money every time they need it just shows they have a committed shareholder base which is also personally backed by Keith. This is incredibly important going forward during a time like this in the mining sector.
Just stay patient and keep adding if you can. Every day is a day closer to something big.
Very nice drilling results just put out for Duparquet!
https://firstmininggold.com/news/first-mining-identifies-multiple-high-grade-gold-zones-in-duparquet-exploration-drilling-
Drill hole DUP24-024 returns multiple gold zones including 10.67 g/t Au over 5.3 m, 6.63 g/t Au over 9.0 m, 3.04 g/t Au over 33.5 m, and 5.97 g/t Au over 33.0 m
Gold zones hosted in newly identified mafic volcanic units not previously modelled at Duparquet
Demonstrates significant exploration growth potential at one of the largest gold deposits in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt
That 5.97g/t over 33m is especially nice, but the other drill holes are also good.
I am now almost 100% confident that Duparquet will be the asset that gets a partnership first. If they can get that smaller starter pit operation going there then this has the potential to grow into a monster asset. This is 100% a 10m+ ounce asset with these recent drill results.
I listened to the webcast and I think Steve did a very good job explaining the current situation and also what the milestones are before we get to the EA finish line. Also, I'm not just saying this on their behalf, I have a very large position in this company and have been an early investor since 2016 so I have every bit of interest to see them do their job well. I was an early investor in First Majestic as well and although that company operates in Mexico the fact of the matter is that mining is a very difficult business everywhere in the world, and you need to be very patient if you decide to invest in these types of developers. I did end up making close to 20x on my FM investment but it took several years of pain, misery and roller coaster rides in the share price to get to that point. It's just the nature of the mining sector. I still have full confidence in Keith, Dan and Steve to get us where we need to be with these assets to get this whole thing monetized. This mine is obviously on the radar for the majors because there just won't be many more big projects coming in in the years to come. I am also starting to think that Duparquet might actually be the real monster asset here in the end, although Springpole definitely is also one of largest undeveloped projects in the world to get permitted. I recommend you go listen to the latest interview from Ron's basement (youtube) with Dan because he did bring up some quite interesting facts about the situation in Duparquet. That asset really has the potential to become something VERY BIG, and this is exactly what the majors are looking for right now. They want assets that not only have a well defined resource but also the potential to grow it out over time. Having said all of this, nothing will change in the share price before we get some major company specific news + sentiment improving in the mining sector as a whole. That is why I don't really watch or care what the share price is doing right now before we get the EA approval. It's just noise to me, I committed to see this thing to the end when I first started investing back in 2016 and we are getting closer every day now to something BIG being announced. Keith is adding shares every month so he also still has full confidence in this project.
My suggestion is as it has always been to not look too much at the share price other than of course adding to your position. Keith has been a monthly buyer of this stock when it was 40-60cents (CAD) all the way down to 10 cents (CAD) and he still keeps buying every month. This is how you should approach these types of investments because the fact of the matter is that none of us knows how the market will react and when the "final bottom" will occur. The only thing you should focus is that the company is making progress on the assets (which they are) and that they have good quality assets and management (which they have). I was an early investor in First Majestic some 20 years ago and it was pure hell emotionally holding on to that stock because we had many ups and downs and long periods where the stock was moving sideways until suddenly it exploded to the upside. I see the same happening here, that is why I don't worry too much about the daily fluctuations in the stock price. If you really believe in this stock then the only way to do this properly is to accumulate when the discount to the NAV is great (like it is now) and then you hold on and let management do their work. If we are right about this company's future then we will make a fortune when the true bull market gets going in miners. Everything in between is just noise. I will keep accumulating as long as we stay under 20cents, that's for sure. But I might buy more even at higher levels depending on the news we get when they finally disclose deals for develpoing Springpole and Duparquet.
In the end we are all just speculating here, I just base my guesses on the probably 50-100 interviews I have watched with Keith and my understanding of him as a businessman. The man is a bold visionary in the industry and he is a very long term investor. We have to keep this in mind when thinking about his potential long term plans for both companies. Regarding Jerritt Canyon, Keith actually stated in a recent interview that they already knew they had to shut it down when they bought it but they could not do that immediately because it would look quite bad, so they tried to keep it up and running for a while when they started doing the planned changes, but eventually it just became too costly. There is an interview with Keith where he goes into very detailed plans for the Jerritt Canyon mine, so I trust him to restart that operation within a year or two. My understanding is it will produce nice cash flow at these gold prices. Of course, if and when he turns Jerritt Canyon back to profitability it will give a nice confidence boost to the FM board that they indeed can (and should) expand more into US/Canada and gold. People often forget that 50% of FM revenues are still coming from gold, so it is just as much a gold company even though the focus is on silver. My bet would be that after Jerritt Canyon is turned around, the time will be very ripe for FM to make a potential move on FFMG because the Springpole permits would be in place by then and Duparquet would also have been drilled out nicely. Keep in mind that FM already owns the silver stream from Springpole anyways so a potential JV there could very well be in the cards later. I don't see how or why the board would be against such a move if Jerritt Canyon has been turned back into profitability.
I think Keith is being very protective of the FFMG assets because, like I said earlier, he knows how rare these types of assets are and when jurisdiction has become even more important in recent years (look what happened in Panama recently) it makes both Springpole and Duparquet even more valuable.
I know investors would like to rush things and are anxious after such a long wait but FFMG really is in no rush here to do deals because, in the end, Keith is the one who will make the final call when a big deal will present itself. They really must and should look at every possible card here regarding developing their assets before they commit to anything. Rushing into a bad deal just to satisfy investors would be very stupid after such a long wait. Dan is the CEO but the fact of the matter is that he talks to Keith about everything that happens in FFMG and if Keith does not approve something it wont get done. This is very clear from every interview you can find where both Dan and Keith are answering questions. I don't think Keith gives a s**t if retail investors don't have the patience to wait things out. He knows where this company is going and he won't pressure Dan to make any stupid decisions just to satisfy investors greed. That is one reason also why the stock has been going down for a while because they don't try to "pump it" up for no reason. Having said that, I really think we are right now in the final phase before the big breakout will occur because all stars are slowly aligning themselves. We are 1 year or so away from having a fully EA permitted tier 1 gold asset in Canada that is also one of the biggest undeveloped gold mines. This will be developed because everyone in the region needs it to be developed. It will be a massive cash flow monster for the region and create hundreds of well paying jobs and tax revenues for the government.
I could go on and on but eventually time will of course show how this story will end. I for sure will go all the way on this one and I think we will be massively rewarded soon.
I will just add one more interview: The Keith Neumeyer Interview
Keith states very clearly in this interview that the criteria for First Majestic acquisitions is a project either in production OR a project permitted and ready for construction. He also states they are looking for projects outside Mexico and the US, specifically Canada but also Europe and Australia.
What we can take from this is that for FM to acquire FFMG or form a JV the projects need to be permitted completely or at least advanced enough to soon be ready for construction. Well, we know Springpole is about 1 year away from complete EA permits and Duparquet is basically quite advanced in the sense that a starter pit operation could get going in 1-2 years.
This is why I was saying earlier that Keith or FM is in no rush here to acquire FFMG even though it is trading very cheaply and a hostile takeover can be prevented because he controls FM. Keith can just continue to buy up shares of FFMG every month while building his position and patiently looking at all options that come along the way before making a final decision what to do with the assets. This is the smart thing to do for sure and we investors need to understand this and be patient as well.
These assets will eventually get built, the question is really just in what kind of deal that will take place.
Yes, this was the interview I was referring to. To me it also seems in some way quite obvious from the way he answers the question that this has been his "grand plan" all along, but he won't say too much about it because of course regulatory wise he cannot. He actually said "I would love to do it but I'm not sure what my board would think of that seeing as I am the chairman and ceo of both companies".
I think he also likes to keep the options open still because they might of course get a good deal done with a major as well or maybe FM only wants to do a JV in one of the projects? First Majestic is the "guardian angel" for FFMG and like I said I am quite confident that the main reason we have not seen a hostile takeover attempt from a major or anyone else yet is because these insiders know Keith will counteroffer from First Majestic if it gets to that and the price will go up in a bidding war. Some peole might ask why would First Majestic just not buy it up right now when its dirt cheap? My answer to this is very simple: They really don't have any need to do it, yet. Keith knows the value of First Mining's assets and he is slowly acquiring shares for himself while knowing that he can probably quite easily fend off any hostile suitor if it gets to that. He really has no rush to do anything here and the focus is on developing and permitting the assets into tip top shape. If they get the permits done and the company is still dirt cheap then Keith could just easily do a merger or JV with FFMG and take it from there. FM could also finance the development of the projects with increased cash flow from rising silver prices. If a major comes in before that then Keith can just look at their cards and decide if it makes sense to do it with a major or if he should do it himself with First Majsetic. This is the "secret sauce" that most investors seem to be missing with this company. Investors have no clue how valuable it is to have Keith as a chairman in FFMG while also being CEO of one of the largest silver mining companies in the world.
Here is something else most people don' know: Keith is also a major shareholder in a company called Snowline Gold which is in the process of making one of the biggest gold discoveries of ALL TIME. He has a 5-6% stake and the company is worth about a billion dollars right now, so this is not a small amount. If Snowline gets bought out in a billion dollar deal, Keith could potentially net 100m for himself just from this alone which he could then use to buy up FFMG big time if the stock would still be at fire sale prices.
I think the majors that are interested are still staying on the sidelines and waiting for Springpole to receive environmental approval and also looking at the developments at Duparquet, but the window of opportunity is really closing in here fast. Back in the 2020 rally, it only took one major institutional investor's buying to rocket the price up to about 50 cents in a matter of a few months. If we get to a point where everyone is rushing in to buy these juniors/developers then FFMG will explode north of 1 CAD, I am very confident about that. I have been through this before in the rally from early 2000's all the way to the mania levels of 2010/11.
I think we are getting closer to a situation where First Majestic Silver might make a move on FFMG. Their cash flows will increase significantly with the rising silver price and Keith is known to make bold moves. I really think he has a vision to merge these two companies long term to create a big Gold/Silver miner. He has admitted this openly in an interview so we know this has at the very least crossed his mind. He bought another 250k shares again on 7/5/24. The Jerritt Canyon acquisition by First Majestic was a clear message from Keith he is looking to expand more into gold and also outside Mexico. Keith knows the value of FFMG which is why I guess he also does not want to create a situation where First Majestic acquires it too cheaply because that will look bad when he is chairman & ceo in these companies. I think this is also one of the reasons why no other major company has tried a hostile takeover on FFMG because they probably know Keith will intervene with a better offer from First Majestic. Keith is quite known to be aggressive in these types of situations. He is a long term investor so he keeps acquiring shares in FFMG slowly but surely which is what we should also do if we believe in this company. I think right now FFMG has around 2-2.5B (CAD) worth of net asset value.. easily at these gold prices. Applying a discount this this NAV of around 40-60% and and you can see why this company should trade north of a dollar (CAD). I will keep accumulating shares for as long as we stay under 20cents or so because I am more or less 100% certain some major gold producer has to be interested in either Springpole or Duparquet (or both). Investors really don't seem to understand how rare Tier 1 assets in good jurisdictions actually are and also how advanced Springpole is from a permitting perspective.
Just sit tight and keep accumulating... I think we are going to see an insane bull market in miners very soon.. Btw, I was an early investor in First Majestic Silver some 20 years ago when the setup was more or less exactly the same as with FFMG today. This industry always gets hated at some point and then suddenly everyone is rushing in to buy everything with the name "gold" in the ticker.
I can very well see this happening. But it is also possible that we go through something like the "Nasdaq crash" where the big tech stocks crashed like crazy while gold mining stocks actually rose or stayed flat during the crash. The reason for this would be that if we have a bad recession on the horizon then by all logic growth stocks and tech stocks should suffer, but at the same time, the pressure will grow to lower interest rates which would support miners very much if inflation is still somewhat above the Fed's target levels. Stagflation has been a very good environment for miners, historically. Of course, if we have a very bad stock market crash where we are facing a liquidity crisis or freezing of the credit markets then for sure every single stocks would most likely suffer.
I think a very severe stock market crash / liquidity crisis would most likely need a real "black swan" type of event to happen.
Keith buying again on the open market, another 250k shares on 7.5.2024. He now owns 30,4 million shares, most of which have been bought in the open market and in pp. I still think we bottomed out at 10 cents back in february.
Thanks that was an interesting take on our situation. What really came to my mind here is again the potential starter pit operation at Duparquet and how that could start near term cash flows for the company. Again, I am not at all sure about the overall math here but still quite confident this starter pit operation could produce in excess of 10 million in annual profits at current gold prices. This in of itself would be a huge catalyst for the share price because essentially it would turn us into a producer, a small one for sure, but still a producer!
I also watched another recent interview with this same gentleman Lobo Tiggre and he is actually very bearish on the future of Mexican mining. Dude is half Mexican himself and has lots of contacts there so I would take his views quite seriously. When you think about this it also explains quite a bit why Keith suddenly bought Jerritt Canyon, a gold mine, even though First Majestic is a silver mining company. Keith has been sort of quietly saying in recent interviews that First Majestic is now actively looking for other projects in USA and Canada.
I can definitely now see the writing on the wall where this is likely to go because geopolitical risks in mining will be a very big thing going forward. Just look at what happened also to that copper deposit in Panama which they just shut down. When the majors/mid-tiers are looking at future gold deposits to acquire, I can almost assure you they are now taking the question of jurisdiction very seriously. As far as I know, miners (and also investors) used to care much more about technical risk than jurisdiction risk, but this might flip now so that they are more willing to take technical risk for the benefit of having the deposit in a safe jurisdiction i.e. USA or Canada.
First Mining sits on two of the best undeveloped Tier 1 gold assets in the world and they are both in what is right now probably the best and safest mining jurisdiction on the planet. Springpole is almost permitted and Duparquet has a potential near term starter pit operation in the cards.
I really think there is close to a zero chance that very soon a major won't snap up these assets or form JVs with FFMG simply because I don't think they can afford to miss out. I think they must be willing to take some permitting risk in Ontario for the benefit of getting to develop these billion dollar assets with future gold prices.
Regarding First Majestic, I can now definitely see Keith looking to make a major move here simply because I think he feels the Mexican operations First Majestic has going there might be in great danger going forward. I really don't think the Mexican government will nationalize the assets, they will just make it more or less impossible to permit new silver mines. This would mean that First Majestic could benefit enormously from a silver supply crunch and get huge cash flows in the next few years which they could then use to acquire assets in USA and Canada. Like I said, Keith has stated in recent interviews the future of First Majestic is outside of Mexico. I used to be a shareholder in First Majestic as well but I would definitely be worried right now with Mexico and it would be perfectly fine for me to expand more into gold which is much more stable in pricing. I think this is what Keith is trying to communicate to his board and shareholders as well.
The best possible outcome - and also what I would do in Dan's situation - would be to try and propose a JV with First Majestic to start developing Duparquet as a starter pit. Keith & Dan know each other so well at this point I mean it's almost guaranteed they must have discussed this possibility? This would really be the best possible catalyst I think for the share price. Then we could wait for Springpole to get its final permits and community agreements in place while we are collecting good cash flow from Duparquet and also start advancing that project further. When Springpole gets its permits that would then send the stock price in the the stratosphere I think.
Also I recommend to watch how Keith is talking about these assets in all of his interviews. It really feels to me he is very protective and greedy with these deposits (and for good reason) so he will for sure fight to his last breath to get the best possible deal here for FFMG. I think he really likes to be in control of these so that is why I'm betting quite hard on First Majestic eventually acquiring at least one of these deposits or forming a JV or even buying the entire company outright if the Mexican situation gets really bad. Right now the entire gold/silver mining industry is in a "fight & die" situation so you need to make bold moves and you need to make them soon if you are going to survive.
Yes! I think I also read on Zerohedge that China has recently disclosed its new gold holdings, something it has not really done for years. I guess they reported for many years their holdings as "unchanged" something almost everyone in the know knew was a lie. So this would also add up well with your point that China wants a bigger say in the global pricing of gold and would also explain the very strong rise of gold in the last months despite the stronger dollar.
I think we have entered a totally new era of commodities pricing in general and people are just now starting to realize what is happening.
Already forgot about this clown 😃 The dude was an absolutely amazing contra indicator some 10 years ago or so.
Gold will most likely correct at some point but the strength of this current rise has been incredible. It really feels to me what Luke Gromen has been saying for years which is that the pricing of the gold market is not solely in the hands of the Western banks any longer. The legacy pricing mechanism has been broken down and I think China has a massive influence on global gold prices these days.
We could be very well looking at a trading range of 2500-3000oz gold in 2025 if not sooner.
This is actually very well laid out and is precisely how I would also like to see the story develop. I'm not really sure how much cash flow they would be able to squeeze out from Duparquet if they got that operation going all by themselves which is very possible considering the low start up costs if they don't need their own mill. My understanding is that they would need to keep the starter pit operation below 2000 tonnes of ore per day. The tailings contain about 0.9g of gold per tonne so we can maybe have a rough estimate of around 40-45 ounces of gold per day produced if they process around 1500 tonnes of tailings per day. This would indicate revenues of maybe 20-30 million USD per year (at least) with current gold prices. I have no idea how much the costs would be for this kind of operation, I would assume maybe a gross profit of maybe 10 million per year or so at least? This is completely speculation on my part, I really have no idea but we can certainly conclude that at current gold prices this starter pit operation could provide very nice near term cash flow for the company. First Mining could then further develop Springpole with this money as needed while also growing the Duparquet operation every year until they get the permits in place there for a bigger operation.
If they could then partner up with First Majestic to develop Springpole as a JV with all of the needed permits in place then I can easily envision this company being valued in the 1-2 billion range (CAD). This would really be the dream outcome. First Majestic already owns a silver stream interest in Springpole so it could be very possible that they would want to partner with FFMG here.
Keep also in mind that the company still has JV interests in both Pickle Crow and Hope Brook. Pickle Crow is by no means a small deposit, it's almost 3 million ounces inferred so there is definitely economic value here as well if this project gets developed. The new mining legislation in Ontario (Build More Mines Act) is exactly meant for deposits like this to get developed faster.
I also sleep very well at night even with all of the negative sentiment in the sector currently. I think Duparquet really is the ace in the sleeve here and they really need to focus on that operation to get it started asap either by themselves or as a JV.
Thanks, will watch this later tonight. I also recommend to watch the latest youtube Q&A video with Luke Gromen (channel is called "FFTT"). He talks about why China has a much more powerful role in gold pricing compared to the past.