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I think it works like insurance - replacement value.
They could just pull up stakes and start anew. I mentioned a nice little one in mine-friendly Wyoming. Here's another one in more or less mining-friendly Australia - At least the Australian government wouldn't try to rip them off.
http://victorymines.com/
The Jungle Well Rare Earth Project is located 80km west of Leonora and was recognised for its REE potential however no analysis was carried out during a late 1990’s diamond exploration program. During 2007 a trench sampling programme identified significant RE values from an exposed dyke of 6.9% and 8% REE.
That's like bonanza grades. It's a typical exploration level jr. with like a billion shares @ 0.01 a share. It's just one of their projects. I bet they might let it go for a few million. Stans would still have plenty left over for studies, development, construction and equipment.
Lucky you. I tried yesterday but, alas, no shares available for shorting.
Freezing is a good way to prevent mealworms in cornmeal. I wonder if that has been tried as a safe alternative. The main idea is to kill mold spores, right? It seems like it could be especially effective if, say, it was frozen really cold, like dry ice cold. Then maybe even cycle warm/cold a few times to catch any left over spores that might still be hatching after the first time. Done in a closed chamber it would preserve the flavor. - just a thought...
re: "The OTC system reopened and then shut down due to system problems...
So that's what happened.
The ask went to $1.00 and then then the bid and ask were the same (us$0.52) for quite a while. This sort of thing used to happen occasionally, 10 years ago. One would think that the technology would be perfected by now.
Study shows yet another beneficial aspect of pot.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/pot-tied-to-fewer-brain-injury-deaths-study/ar-BB97lNX
I seem to recall reading somewhere that NioCorp also has a REE deposit in Australia somewhere? If so, maybe they could consider selling that to raise capital as well...
C$ 0.21 = US$ 0.19 , c$0.30 = US$ 0.27 This is good. Hecla bought in at a premium instead of a discount. Our current retail share price is undervalued and we have funding. <g> = :)
Very splendid informative post #9586 thank you howestreetbull
I wish Stans would stop dragging their feet, but I guess they sincerely do want to operate the mine and are giving the Kyryzy government officials every possible chance to stop being pompous and thick headed, before they lower the boom.
The trouble with holding now is I imagine a lot of shareholders are starting to lose interest, as it seems like this state of affairs is going to be in limbo for a while longer. If they go with the settlement there is likely going to be a big gap up into the .60 to .70 range out of the blue, and it will be too late to get in. Otherwise, if you believe that the K's will respond the leverage we now have, and come around, then, I guess you could get in for what will be a more gradual rise to over $1.00 and beyond as production comes on line.
If Stans goes with the settlement option, they could just buy one of many new other REE plays around now which are totally cash strapped. For example one rather nice new little REE play (uncreatively) named REE is getting really cheap now. They could probably buy the whole thing for under $30 million and still have plenty left over for additional studies, digging machines, a new processing plant and so forth. This one also has the advantage of not being too big and it's in Wyoming, one of the most truly mine friendly places in the world.
On the other hand K is is a poor country (with government officials like that, hardly the need to wonder why) and the local people there were probably looking forward to an improved standard of living from the economic benefits reopening the mine would bring. It is a shame that the K officials involved continue to abuse their authority at the expense of their citizens.
From what I've read here and there, tantalum is close to being the ideal metal. Very inert chemically, also very strong. If you made a car out of tantalum it would be practically indestructible and last pretty much forever. The thing is, there is only enough tantalum to make about 100 cars. Production is measured in tons ( not megatons) since it is only available as a small byproduct of refining other metals. It is more much more rare than platinum (or REE's for that matter). The reason tantalum is not over $10k an ounce is that, as it turns out, niobium is an excellent substitute for tantalum in most applications. This frees up available tantalum for valuable niche applications like human joint replacement and a tiny bit more for use as a high dielectric thin film oxide to make compact electronic capacitors.
So, niobium is already the best substitute of choice for the major area of application which is structural steel. I would say that to try to substitute for the substitute isn't really practical, desirable, or considered necessary by steel producers. I would expect them to continue to use more over time once they realize that the increased demand won't spike the price up into a level of unavailability.
The trouble with REE is that the market is brittle. The users have to have a certain amount to make their product. There is no viable substitute. The extraction process from rock is a complicated process compared to from ionic clay which China has a lot of in a very thin deposit spread over a large area. Relatively easy to get if you don't mind tearing up the whole countryside. When China cut back on supply, when users came a few ounces short, they pretty much would pay anything to get what they needed. This spiked the price up astronomically in 2011. Once users had enough, probably some stockpiling went on, they stopped buying and the price tanked. Meanwhile, while nobody explored for REE, now they did and found quite a few new deposits around the world (albiet rock based). It seems that China has been getting more ecologically aware lately and has been cracking down on their domestic mining , shutting down unregistered and dangerous operations and so forth, so supply is going to be throttled back somewhat. Meanwhile, after doing some research,I've decided that there isn't room for a lot of new production in the REE space. Which is why I've dumped all of my REE positions ( well, except one, which has special circumstances <g>).
What I like about Niobium is that it isn't a rare earth element. And, the market is different, still narrow but more robust and resilient. While it vastly improves the characteristics of steel, which is produced in great abundance for all kinds of necessary and useful things like vehicles, buildings, bridges, pipelines, tanks, railroads, the steel producers would like to use more (some is good, more is better), but they don't have to. For example, a lot of Chinese buildings have poor earthquake resistance because they were built with just regular steel, probably because China has no domestic Niobium.
I think that niobium users are still afraid of spiking the price up like REE's, so are being cautious about increasing usage. When the price only goes up moderately, I think that usage will increase over the next few years and that means plenty of room in this specialty market ( particularly in North America) for a new player i.e. NioCorp.
I noticed that too. My order @0.521 sat there all day while all these 500s blocks went through under the bid. The market was acting funny today - not just niocorp. I noticed a lot of trades going under the bid on many other stocks. It seems related to the major indexes e.g. nas having the first down day in while...
Initially I was a little concerned about the 500ft of rock over the deposit, but I think I read that it is mostly limestone, right? That would be relatively easy to cut through. Hopefully then, they can make a bee-line to one of the higher grade nuggets.
I keep forgetting that the plant and mine are seperate. Nothing to stop them from operating the plant which apparently they've continued to fix up. That would also explain the corpoarate re-alignment of personell announced recently. A lot of scientist types and intellectual property to utilize. And they can have a few bucks coming in while we wait for the arbitration award scenerio to play out. Actually, they could make a lot of money processing from third parties like that outfit in France. There are a lot of various REE plays popping up around the world and one article I read meantioned that the REE space will be limited and that it will be a race to production. Well, we're there, production-wise. There's only a few places that I know of that can process REE's. In regard to the arbitration award, presumably the gears are turning but considering how they jerked around Centerra and how only when Centerra announced that they would suspend mining that the Kryzk's came around at the last minute. I still think Stans would like to have their own mine nearby to work, but maybe they don't necessarily even need it. It would be more acretive in the long run, taking the arbitration award would be less than the possible total from mining but on the other hand, there is something to be said for $118 million instant gratification.They could buy a new mine, for example there is a nice one in Wyoming that just did a nice pre-feasability study. It might be little inconveniant to ship the concentrate, but, that is done with a lot right now since there are so few processing outfits. Anyway, it may even be too late for the Kryzk officials to undo what they put in motion.
I would add - Obviously it's a little more complicated but I think that, basically,since the arbitration ruling isn't subject to appeal, it's a pretty much done deal. I imagine, all they have to do is take the legal papers over to the transfer agent / account in Canada where the shares reside, and they cross off "Kyrgyz" and write in "Stans" for $118 million worth of the $500 million Kyrgyz Centerra holdings...
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/07/03/kyrgyzstans-centerra-gold-shares-vulnerable-to-possible-seizure-after-key-court-ruling/
I like this part:
"Besides Centerra shares, Stans can try to seize foreign Kyrgyz assets or flows of capital in and out of the country. For example, it could go after gold shipments or state-owned airplanes that land outside the country. The only foreign assets that can’t be seized are sovereign property (such as embassies) and military property.
Stans hopes it never comes to that and the company is able to negotiate a settlement and resume work on the Kutessay II project.
Stans acquired the project licence from the government in 2009, but strange things started to happen a few years later. In 2012, a parliamentary committee suddenly decided that the licence should be revoked. Around the same time, a Chinese group that previously owned the licence showed up and tried to get it back in order to sell it to someone else, Mr. Vinokurov said. In fact, the Chinese unwittingly reached out to one of Stans’ consultants because it wanted his help in finding a buyer."
This is from a more complete version of the original article I posted previously (from July). Since the Kyrgyz officials haven't been forthcoming in even attempting to negotiate in good faith, I imagine it won't be long now.
Funny, I once considered getting some Centerra shares, looks like now I won't have to.
So am I, but it's clear that they are still in growth mode over profit mode. I just wish that they had targeted +0.01 per share instead of -0.01 ..
Could be. Though it was a bit higher that that even before the news. From the VP's remark about that being the "low hanging fruit", I don't think they really want to pursue that route. I think that they would rather go ahead and do mining as originally intended. The higher hanging fruit would see a share price measured in dollars (eventually) as opposed to a one time boost. The implication is that the damages award would be compensation for losses because they would be prevented from taking possession of what they bought. We would get an instant gratification, (perhaps distributed to shareholders as a dividend?) but that would be it. There has been no pump on this stock, if it were a typical pump, the rationalization would be put forth that 0.62 would be the minimum price and it would get bid up around there. It could still happen. Apart from a few ihubbers, not many know anything about this stock or the interesting story. Actually, ecen some of the recent ihub posters here didn't seem to have a clue...
Financial Post Article on Stans / Centerra : http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aHRE-2191704&symbol=HRE®ion=C
Go to http://www.stansenergy.com/ check out the Corporate Presentation. See if you agree with me.
Stans Energy is a mining company focused on minerals that contain rare metals used for clean energy technology. Other than that aspect of the name, they have nothing to do with oil, gas, or producing energy.
The open pit mine and processing complex are comparable to a Lynas or Molycorp project. Mining start-ups typically face having to try to raise hundreds of millions to design and build the mine and mill/processing factory, and hundreds of millions more to build infrastructure there are no roads, rail or electric power. In our case, it's already it's all there.
What's really cool is that it's not just a mill - it is also a REFINERY.
Kutessay II Facts
Former producing Rare Earth Element ( REE) open-pit mine
Percentage of HREEs approximately 46%
Contains all 15 REEs and formerly produced every REE at purities up to 99.99%
Kutessay II concentrate was refined into 120 different REE compounds
30 years of proven metallurgy, with approximately 65% recovery
Previously produced 80% of the former Soviet Union’s REEs from 1960-1991
Good infrastructure, rail line 43 km away, electrical power on site, and the mine is located 140 km by paved road from Kyrgyzstan’s capital city of Bishkek
Abundance of qualified labour living in the area
Stans Energy owns 100% of the Processing Complex previously used to create final oxides metals and alloys from Kutessay II concentrate
• 100% ownership of former Soviet-era mine
• Produced 80% of FSU’s REE needs
• March 2011: Pit-contained mineral resources
– Measured + Indicated: 45,650 tonnes of contained TREO
– Inferred: 3,560 tonnes of contained TREO
= Just counting measured and indicated,
approx 102 million pounds of REO (Rare Earth Oxide)
@ $20 lb = approx $1 billion
Let's say, 50% to be conservative = $500 million
$500 million / 175 million fully diluted outstanding shares = $2.85 book value per share based just on ore waiting to be scooped up from the already built open pit mine. ( not counting the factory and the other adjacent mineral assets they also control which also contain uranium, thorium and beryllium and probably a lot more REE. )
• 20-year mining license and all permits are in place
When the old communist Soviet empire broke up, the mining operation shut down. All the workers, who probably were underpaid to begin with, now weren't getting paid at all, so basically everybody dropped tools and walked off the job, never to return. The mine and factory lay abandoned for years afterward. The Kyrgyzstan government inherited title to what, to them, was just big pile of dirt and some strange looking old factory buildings. It sat around for years. They evidently didn't know what to do with it and finally sold it all off at auction. I estimate Stans bought it at better than a 98% discount.
Some of the Kyrgyzstan officials apparently suddenly realized that the "worthless" mine complex they just sold, was actually valuable to somebody. They then tried to shake down Stans for "gratuities" ( which to most people out here would read "bribes") and then when that didn' work, they came out with a bunch of edicts that basically forbade Stans to start mining. The actions of the officials put the Kyrgyzstan government in breach of contract. Kyrgyzstan, in the past, also agreed to binding international arbitration with Russia as third party. Stans appealed to Moscow for damages of $125 million. Findings are in Stan's favor for $118 million.
So even if Stans continues to be blocked from digging even one shovel full, $118 million in Kyrgyzstan assets held in Canada ( e.g. Centerra Gold stock) will get assigned to Stans in accordance with the international arbitration judgement.
So then, this, being the "worst case" scenerio: <g>
$118 million / 175 million fully diluted outstanding shares = approx. $ 0.67 per share
Either way, it seems reasonable to expect the share price to go up... GLTA
What's with these GREE#9 shares that just popped into my account? Anybody else get these?
Since we can post pretty much anything here, posting how many shares is meaningless. Suffice to say it's a modest position.
A few years ago, China, with its near monopoly put a squeeze on supply by restricting exports which sent many modern tech raw materials like lithium and ree's skyward. Apparently they didn't expect the new wave of exploration and startup resource companies that that would trigger. Now, China has reversed its prior move and seems to be dumping which has depressed market prices. Everybody inthe investment community pretty much hates this sector which, some would say, makes it a good time to start easing in. After all, China inc. can't keep selling at a loss to supress competition, forever. They need these materials themselves, so may decide to start keeping more of them again. Or, in some cases, Chinese companies are seeking strategic partnerships with emerging producers.
Rodinia management seems all right in that they have made some moves to conserve capital and went the warrant route on financing, which is not immediately dilutive. So. Good. But the warrants have had the effect of establishing the share price at arounf 0.05 for now.
They still have a certain amount of construction and deal making to do, though I believe they already did some pilot production. The potash might seen like a drawback but it is a saleable product and like some of the other better startups it is a good factor to sustain them until the lithium market improves. Lithium demand will increase and China will likely settle down, eventually.
SO it will probably take a year or two before Rodinia gets going good. They seem to have pretty good prospects but it is after all, a speculative investment.
perhaps you should just be happy that your broker got you a better price than you expected.
that's my attitide when it happens to me...
okey doekey <g>
just slow. looked like nobody wanted to sell. till somebody just whacked the bid with that 20k order at .1399
no other trades. pretty quiet day....
basically par normal range for dpdw though it was nice to see .17 for a change
I think pm and oil are being ticked (held) down to downplay weakness in the dollar.
we all know that oil is going back up sooner or later and that dpdw's booked workload is not being affected much by oil spot price but oil being down ableit onlyslightly is probably dampening buying enthusiasm a bit for oil related stocks today.
I was just about to post the same thing about suddenly no volume for the last hour...
stock is halted for some reason??
pending news maybe... ???
maybe just a slow day today so far...
How much does a thermavolt module /system cost?
anybody know? (ball park)
retail, wholesale, just a modue vs. system...
just curious.
Is this the same Gibbs?
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=BW&date=20090323&id=9721286
"Girard Gibbs LLP Files Class Action Lawsuit on Behalf of Oppenheimer California Municipal Bond Fund Investors (Nasdaq: OPCAX, OCABX, OCACX)March 23, 2009 7:13 PM ET..."
Seems out of character
re: "...JPM should do what i described above if they had any brains. That would be the only way i can see them getting out of this without any bad ink. It would basically be a settlement but they would and could say they bought an asset they they think has value. [...]"
That is a fascinating theory. It would be a perfect way to settle while saving face. I have heard that Goldman Saks has been buying up desert land near power lines for future solar installations so it is not unheard of for a bank to buy property based assets. The parties could negotiate a settlment price the proceeds would go to MOSH. Works for me.
Too bad there doesn't seem to be any way to tell if something like that could be going on until after the auction transpires...
Somebody call the Chinese. They're just about the only ones still around with a lot of money to spend. I do believe that they have been buying up a lot of o&g properties lately... <g>
It occurs to me that liquidating the trust properties would probably be a prerequisite to a settlement in that it would provide closure to all parties in this long drawn out affair. From the defs point of view anyway, they might be afraid that if they settle that some point down the road some other issue could be dredged up. Certainly jpm, and (I think), pxd already indicated that they want out, nothing further to do with the trust, GOM operations in general et el..
So there is some possibility that this could indicate the sides inching a bit closer together in regard to some sort of settlement.
Otherwise maybe they are trying to beat the "mark to market" accounting rule change being bandied about washington. That's where all these banks have toxic paper that according to their finacial engineering model are worth a zillion dollars, but, now, nobody wants to buy them, so the market value is essentially zero and that is why they all keep going broke.
With "mark-to-model" being recognized, presto! they're all technically solvent again. <g>
In way, that's what we have here. Our model shows a billion bucks or so. Their move is going to try to demonstrate that current market value is very small. However, if mark-to-model suddenly becomes fashionable, then our mark-to-model calculated value would be what they have to start with as opposed to the opposite.
just a weird half-serious thought.. <g>
any way to know what the minimum bid is?
re:" DPDW used to be my cushion...
yeah, i've been trying to figure out what happened too.
Things seemed to take a downturn right after the pp.
Theoretically, it should have only gone down to .70 or so.
Ok oil prices collapsed along with the economy and exploration spending got curtailed. Thing is, dpdw's still got plenty of regular business to keep busy. I don't see that accounting for the further 85% drop... Basically we have bankruptsy pricing right now on the pps but they are not in any danger of bk so far as I can tell. Oil prices are even starting to tick up a bit.
No, I have to conclude that the big stickler is the stalled registration due to "comments" by the sec. Nobody knows what these comments may be. Probably they are just run of the mill grammar and crossing the t's stuff but there is that nagging possibility that something could be in there to derail the flotec acquisition. Flotec looks to be a gold mine but the share price right now is like there is no flotec nor future "goodwill" factor in the valuation.
From what I've learned so far about the commenting process, it seems that the SEC is concerned that statements made by the company are accurate, risks are properly disclosed and so forth to "protect" prospective buyers of the stock.
Since the shares have already changed hands, it seems kind of stupid to be perfecting the prospectus at this point. Which is to say, the prior periodic reports by the company were good enough for the flotec recipients since they closed the deal, the SEC compelling them to adjust the sales pitch after the sale has been made makes it seem like a farce.
re: "the SEC is in the commenting process, and once the SEC has no further comments, it will be come effective"
What would be an example of a SEC "comment"?
re: "GO MOSH, not true, I called a Broker and he was willing to short it. I didn't but it can be done if your that stupid"
The discount brokers that pretty much all retail traders use won't allow it under $5 - scott. etrade, ameritrade etc.
I once made some inquiries in this regard (re: a different stock, i forget which now). I then called schwab ( i think it was shwabb) = basically a "full service" broker. They will technically do it for you, but - he told me that it "would not be worth my while". i.e. the margin requirements and costs would be impractical.
So for all intents and purposes retail investors can't short stocks under $5. Only market makers, which they do on a regular basis as part of their normal legitimate activity to try to keep things flowing. Unfortuneately, some mischeif creeps into the system with certain players - we all have heard the stories and theories.
I've often said that I would be rich by now if I could short stocks under $5 because that is where most of the "pump and dumps" take place. They all have the same pattern, "exciting" story but no real assets or profit, breathless promotion, the classic chart pattern of big momemtum spike up, then the long distribution tail back down. The reason it is so common with penny stocks is becasue the big players know that the hapless retail investors being drawn in can only go long.
Most people (especially nowadays) are unlucky investors and even worse as traders. yet, good traders who sell into strength and buy on weakness produce stability, smooth price movement. With retail participants not being able to short penny stocks means that there will be plenty of buyers on the way up but no competition to cover from retail on the dip down which otherwise would tend to put more of a floor under the price.
Sorry, i just wanted to address your point, this doesn't have much of anything to do with mosh other than we can agree that it would be an unwise choice as short candidate. So, since we can't short anyway on a practical basis, nothing lost really in this case. To end on an upbeat note... <g>
re: "...can we still participate in the gains from this lawsuit. "
The main guys here seem to think so. Seems like I was convinced when i asked a similar question a while ago.
Obviously a sale would seem to complicate things a bit. Right now we have units that have a market value composed of NAV plus "goodwill" factor (expectation of future money). If the hard assets go away we would be left with future expectations, which, probably will continue to fluctuate widely depending on how the case is perceived as going. I don't know if there is a "par" value assigned to units but, like pretty much all modern day stocks, it is likely very low. Presumably money netted from sale would be divied up as some sort of cash distribution to unitholders.
How could that go?
1. Best case, they get $1 billion for properties, we get $10 per unit or so and we all go away happy.
2. Middling case, properties go for $30 million to $150 million, we get somehwhere between .50 to 2.00 per unit. Personally I'd be pretty happy with $2 per unit at this point. But maybe that's just me...
3. Worst case, properties go essentially no bid and some defendant's brother-in-law picks them up for $20 plus a pack of cigarettes with one missing... (I bought a car like that once - the cigarettes clinched the deal. <g>)
I don't know why they couldn't at least put them up for regular sale instead of auction. i.e. Energy prices will likely double over the next year or so.
The units will still presumably be there. If they have a book value of zero after the sale, theoretically someone could buy an infinite number (well, the entire float anyway) and then realize an infinite or tremendous profit on the goodwill portion. Presumably the defs still need to "get their hands slapped", so I would expect unitholders to get _something_, here again maybe a billion or maybe just $50 million or so like pxd shelled out on, i believe the kansas case on some technical accounting "error" which it seemed like they did without too much flinching...
after this is all over one way or the other i think i am swearing off "buy and hold" "investing"...
Maybe there will be a movie about it...
I thought of the perfect title. Too bad it's taken already:
"The Never Ending Story" <g>
re: "I thought we were trying to be made whole, for the defendants sins of the past."
Yes, that's the idea.
Actually, "we"/"us" in the sense that we are current unitholders. Actually, it is the Trust that needs to be made whole. I think that one way it is like a corporation *(though not in certain other ways in regard to certain details of case law), is that it is similarly a legally created entity with the status of a "person".
The legal enity, "person", MOSH has been financially abused over the years. Establishing the idea of holding auction at this time as a very bad business decision would serve to underscore that the pattern of abuse continues,imo.
Thought I'd chime in a bit. I subscribe to a bunch of mostly resource oriented newsletters and spend a lot of time reading various related commentaries. If you read everything the spectrum of contradictory opinions tend to cancel out. Hard to sort out what to believe.
I've seen predictions of $20 oil. Haven't seen the $10 prediciton yet in publications i read, but I think the thesis about global depression has some merit.
A lot of money existed/exists as credit/derivatives. When a tranch of credit goes bad, that quantity of money basically disappears. The effect gets amplified by the 10:1 leverage provided by fractional reserve banking and 40:1 or whatever (who knows how high) leverage provided by all the derivitives.
Two things influence price of goods: Supply/demand in the physical market and inflation/deflation which "is at all times a monetary phenomona" according to classical economists.
Millions of people no longer having to drive to work and reduced transportation usage for goods no longer being bought has produced a loss of demand for oil and reduced industrial output has reduced demand for energy in general. Meanwhile, trillions of dollars have disappeared due to credit defaults and respective derivitives imploding.
Oil is still being produced and being stored in tankers, since Cushing is about full. At the moment nobody knows what to do with it all and it continues to pile up. It's possible that a further drop in energy prices could occur but i think that it will be temporary.
That is because global production is dropping. Exploration and future production projects are being delayed and cancelleed. That means any meaningful new production is being pushed years further into the future. Existing major production wells continue irreversable depletion and output decline.
Certain areas of activity will continue to use oil. For example, the various militaries. Politicians, bankers and environmentalists will do everything they can to support air travel since they need to jet back and forth to remote luxury resorts and so forth to conduct all the conspicious periodic hand-wringing sessions to reassure "the public". Anyway the point is that demand gets increasingly inflexible the further down the curve you go. At some point (soon), push comes to shove.
IMO, once the excess inventory starts coming down, that will signal a coming spike in energy. It will likely be made worse since actual production will have deteriorated and postpond to the point that it no longer meets demand.
The other thing happening is that central banks (notably our hallowed local franchise the FR) are fixing to "target inflation". I hear, 3%. Down in their dark bunkers, trillions are being shoveled into giant monetary cannons and fired off into the economy as fast as they can "print" it. So far nothing much has happened. I guess it is still all in flight. How good is their aim? Best not stand too close to the target. <g>
Think Zimbabwe, or Weimer Republic. Prices of things with intrinsic value such as oil or precious metal tend to spike way up once out-of-control hyperinflation ignites.
Trillions continue to disappear faster than the central banks can monetize debt to replace it. At some point, there will be a lull in writeoffs and everything will become unstuck (or unglued depending how you look at it). There is about equal cause for worry that they will "succeed" as there is for them to fail. there is a high speed monetary freight train in motion and it it unlikely that it can be stopped on a dime.
OK, what I think is going to happen: Energy will continue to drift down a bit more. Then all of a sudden, monetary "stimulus" will start to take hold, demand will go back up. Then prices will spike back up, throttling economic recovery, industrial production will contimue to slide with the added onus of commodity prices being high due to currency inflation (dilution). Foreigners will decline buying t-bonds and in desperation interest rates will finally be raised ( "to combat inflation", gee where did that come from?). Oil will be pegged to something other than the dollar. And with luck, Keynesian economics will be abandoned and a long slow climb back out of the hole will begin. Could take years.
This is the best time to own oil & gas properties and the worst time to try to sell, imo.
re: "starting to get paranoid lol
No fair. I called dibs on getting paranoid first. You're supposed to talk me out of it. <g>
Actually I am feeling a little better about things. Your previous analogy about how getting rid of the victims doesn't get rid of the crime was a good point.
So one is given to wonder, just what is it they are up to?
A saying comes to mind: "It's not paranoia when they're really out to get you" <g>
Since oil & nat gas are at multi-year lows this is just about the worst timing to try to sell o&g property from the seller's perspective. I'm currently trying to rest my brain from trying to understand an article I just read about something called "oil swaps". Nymex oil is based on WTI (West Texas Intermediate), higher quality oil than Brent crude, yet Brent is currently selling for 10% to 20% more than WTI. Very abnormal. Supposedly, WTI oil is being swapped out of the SPR
(Strategic Petroleum Reserve) in exchange for Brent, so it doesn't show up on accounting as a drain while at the same time it allows the storage facilities at Cushing to fill up-which is used for the petro report every Wednesday. Thwe bottom line is that crude prices are being manipulated.
The implication is that oil (and other energy e.g. nat gas) are set to rise, probably spike back up in the probably not too distant future, if not sooner when it all comes unravelled at some point. World production capability is still maxxed out and set to decline as exploration projects get canclled due to low prices and demand will come back with any kind of global recovery causing the expected price rise. We know that $140 oil causes a severe economic downturn, but the point at which economic recovery hits a wall again is probably somwhere in between, say $50 to $70 a barrel as an "equalibrium" point. That implies higher nat gas as well.
In regard to MOSH, I'm still pretty sure MOSH per se will get _something_ out of all this. The $50 million Woodside paid for a 50% interest in one lease implies at least .70 per unit worth of recent past investment value right there.
I noticed an attempted tankage on the news but interestingly it didn't seem to work very well.
I imagine this is an effort to scare unitholders out on the threat of cutting them out by announcing their intent to auction off the properties.
Actually I have had instances of restricted shares sitting in my account at all zeroes before so I'm thinking that worst case, even if gets sold, the cash will stay seperate, presumably paid to exisitng unit holders sooner or later but there would still be no reason to obliterate the actual units even if they ended up being shares of nothing physical any more. They would still have to be preserved as claims on pending settlements or damages awards, right?
So the spectre of announced auction is a little unsettling to unitholders, probably its main intent, but is actually just a paper tiger. It can't really hurt us, right?
Of course, paper cuts can be a b!tch... <g>.
re: Would love to hear any contrary opinions...
This isn't really a contrary opinion exactly, but more of a concern possibly due to not completely understanding how all the legal stuff works.
After liquidation, some sort of cash distribution seperate and apart from units would be all well and good, imo, but my concern about possible bearing on the case is that, wouldn't the units be cancelled then?
Maybe this is a ploy by defendants to basically get rid of all the beneficiaries standing, which by definition are enumerated/identified by virtue of the fact of being unitholders. No more units = no more holders = ending of the case...
If the properties/trust assets are all sold off, how can you have a trust with nothing in it?