That’s right! Buy high sell low the retail way!

Lmao Bradford you spew some silly stuff sometimes. But I appreciate your posts most of the time

I’ve read that and I know you got those 2 paragraphs from very different portions of that analysis.

Paragraph 1: is stating they could shift their stake of $191 billion into JPS or common stock which is far easier to liquidate to the public. They only state restructuring their own ownership stake not that of others.

2. That paragraph is in the receivership portion which was back when they had no $$$ in the bank and they were going to have to attempt to raise enough money to pay down government SP, JPS, and raise almost all of the money necessary to recap themselves. All of that wasn’t possible with 3 or 5 years of profits banked which was what the analysis was using. Now we are 5 years in and there is no way of doing anything before year 6 or 7. The GSEs have made enough they don’t need much more to be fully recapped. That was a huge burden to overcome 4 years ago and I don’t think they anticipated profitability like we have seen these last 4 years. If the government wants to finish recapitalization before they have saved enough themselves then all they would have to do is write off their senior preferred shares and exercise warrants with a $5-10 strike. They could raise $30-60 B for the GSEs and probably clear $200B selling their stakes.

This whole thing doesn’t seem relevant. This isn’t a bankruptcy proceeding. This wasn’t a company defaulting in 20008 when the government, to restore market confidence, took over the GSEs to inject more capital into them. There is no reason to restructure and there’s no reason they can’t continue saving money until they reach their recap goal. LP is irrelevant in everything except bankruptcy. I’ve never seen a bankrupt company with $70b cash on the balance sheet.

Funny he says it’s commonly done, but I am not having any luck researching what the terms of this type of a deal of this nature looks like.

Yikes that is an ugly view of this whole thing. Imo it’s misguided because there is 0 need for restructure and I don’t think the tacked on LP will be valid when recap $$$ is achieved and government gets paid via whatever mechanism they choose. Reorganization is for insolvent companies that cannot meet liabilities and GSEs do not fit that bill. They have plenty of money and the government should align themselves with public investors to create a reasonable expectation of fair treatment going forward for all investors now and future. There is no reason in my mind to expect a reorg when the company makes billions every freakin quarter.

This seems incredibly naive. Government is never going to give this away. Gotta give them a reason to release. Unfortunately the absolute cheapest way is to convince them to write off SPSA and convert or sell warrants. Would be slick if Fannie and Freddie could convince them to raise strike on warrants to $10 or something considerably higher than basically nothing. At $10 we’d easily be recapped and simplest mechanism for getting everything done that needs to be done.

This is a genuine single digit IQ post. Hard to find anywhere else!

LOL exactly. These idiots are so annoying acting like something good would happen if preferreds somehow went to 0. It’s like their tiny peanut brains can’t figure out if the PREFERRED shares aren’t worth anything then commons are a big fat 0 too. Maybe they don’t care they just want everything 0’d out who knows.

This is why I too have both. At worst I miss out on some upside on commons going past $25 or $50. Dividends probably start for preferred shares a year or 2 before commons too not to mention the decent damages check I anticipate. Still got enough commons that I’ll be retiring 10-20 years sooner than I could otherwise expect.

Assuming the worst that commons do get diluted I’ve got enough preferred shares that even at 50% of face value I’d end up very well off overall.

The longer this whole process takes the more realistic proper terms of release will be given.

Once they reach the minimum funding threshold that can no longer be an excuse to keep them. liquidation preference only matters in bankruptcy.

They cannot argue that the model doesn’t work when they have drummed up 3% cash on all holdings within 6-7 years despite having to pay legal fees for lawsuits against their “conservator”, the bloated salaries of said conservator, AND paying out the nose for credit risk transfers that are actually useless by every metric available. Their conservator is genuinely a massive drain on both companies and should be dramatically scaled back so both can function properly without billions of dollars wasted.

Dilution concerns should ease as the primary need to dilute was to raise funds to be considered recapitalized and since that has happened now I think the only concern is the warrant exercise possibility which isn’t even that concerning given the current share price. I’ve been adding to my common pile because I see significantly less risk for bad terms on release. To add to commons I did sell some preferred but still have over $500,000 in face value there. I’ve got about 30,000 commons now and still hoping commons are relatively cheap when we finally get a settle mtn but we shall see.

It does. But the problem is there isn’t a good alternative and getting congress to agree to a change is as likely as herding cats into a pool without a scratch

Such a terribly argued article. An 8th grader spending 20 minutes to learn about the situation could pick it apart. Half the graphics show data points that are wholly irrelevant. It pretends the government didn’t force them to write down the value of assets and thus made their financial position looks far more precarious than it actually ever was. The earning sweep also just so happened once it was clear profitability was about to skyrocket and they wanted to prevent any chance of leaving conservatorship. Odd how they go from no profits to $84B at Fannie Mae in a year right?

Also that dude seems to have really flip flopped on this whole situation. He was just talking about release not too long ago no?

Like the SOTU address, then end of April, then by end of June right?

Lots of people have 10% or more of each of the GSEs. You think so?

Pref shares popping. Someone knows something? What’s the deal? Someone heard I sold a few to buy something else and decided it was time to pump?

Haven’t sold any commons and probably should have bought more when they were $1.0x but that was my mistake being down to strictly my core position. I wonder if the possibility of getting our judgement is impacting Freddie because even commons are nearly trading at par with Fannie.

They’ve had that position for a long time…

Or when it seems likely that this is about to be released move everything into an IRA then perform a back door IRA —> to Roth IRA and then it’s tax free

Correct it is a motion that was poorly worded on my part. Just seems like this portion should be done and over so we can move on to the actual appeals.

It is almost October. Lamberth has had 2 months to review the appeal… how is he still sitting on this decision?? The defenses case rests almost entirely on Lamberth admitting he was incompetent during the trial. Should be fairly easy to throw this appeal out no?

While I have agreed that AIG situation could be relevant in terms of junior preferred shares converted at a % of face value, I agree that AIG was in terrible financial shape and the government wanted out at break even if possible. Unfortunately there wasn’t a good way for them to recoup from AIG. But that is a completely different scenario than these 2 as both are highly profitable.

Refinancing is picking back up. Should be great for the twins right?

LOL. Posting here daily unaware that lawsuit has been ongoing over a decade. Clueless.

I’ve asked this before but wasn’t able to find a solid answer. Do we know what their $140b in cash is doing? Do they buy treasuries? Are they earning interest on that sum somehow?

Lmao even though I would be “fine” thanks to pref position I would be furious about the loss of potential from my common holding which should be set to increase exponentially once freedom has been secured. My overarching thesis has changed and now assumes that release is coming and common shares at WORST lose 4/5ths ownership value with exercise of warrants (which is a stupid premise to begin with as they were only intended to be a backstop preventing losses and the duration on them was BS to boot). That said with the growth of the company and retained earnings it would still mean $20-30 a share is real and easily accomplished.

I think my new preferred release terms would be
1. LP/SPSA written off as paid in full.
2. Warrants sold back to FNMA/FMCC valuing them on the weighted average share price the last 5 years.
3. Explicit guarantee backing the companies in exchange for a realistic small fee. Small fee can be used to extend housing assistance to first time buyers or low credit loans or whatever government wants for “mission driven lending”

This means government benefits from
1. Paid in $$$ which is $100B profit from initial loan.
2. An additional lump sum from warrant tender
3. Perpetual money to fund their housing plan which is free money for what they were already implicitly doing.

If they go this route shares are easily $100+. Rewarding those who have been stuck holding for 15+ years and those with the fortitude to buy a company stuck in government purgatory. Unfortunately government probably doesn’t want to reward shareholders that handsomely so unlikely but I think it would be reasonable… you know… as a shareholder

So only another 15 years now?

This. That entire article is meaningless depending on results in November.

To be CEO? has she ever really had that title previously?

Can we really not mention important factual things? Like there is a debate tomorrow and there is an election coming up? Like for real if we aren’t being political?

Would you say 10,000 to 15,000 common shares are meaningless? Because that’s about how many I figure I’ll be buying with the damages I’ll be paid. That assumes of course common shares are still in the 1.20 general area so may be more or less. I am resigned to waiting till the later part of 2025 or maybe 2026 until I see it though.

Not even a little. So much pent up demand and even the people who are overextended buying a house in the last 1-2 years will be able to refi to save a significant amount of month in the next 6 months. Prices will likely stabilize or perhaps drop 10% in hot markets but overall stability is solid.

2 years of 5% or so interest payments pushes damages to 730m or so. It might push share prices up if people such as myself reinvest damages check into common shares which is my plan. 730m into 2.2 market cap between Fannie and Freddie would be substantial!

With commons sitting where they are I am tempted to sell pref and swap to common for a few thousand. But the second I do they’ll announce the damages check is coming. Maybe I’ll just buy commons with other funds.

Someone across the board was buying and driving preferred share values up roughly 10% today. Odd day.

I think realistically these don’t go anywhere until they’ve hit the capital requirement they’ve arbitrarily chosen. Which means it’s unlikely to move till about 2027. When they break the news it’s going to be recap and released who knows. This next administration will be the ones releasing we just don’t have details. Once it is known it is happening share price is going to rocket no matter what date they pick.

I have 0 clue what you are talking about. Only trial I care about is the only trial that has been won against FHFA the 8-0 jury trial that will pay shareholders. I don’t know anything or care at all about other lost trials that have no bearing on future release.

Except congress never passed anything. The bill was introduced in the house and never mentioned ever again. It had 0 traction. To say it it was passed is an outright lie.

Damages are for shareholders. Recap is from retained earnings.

Only scenario anyone really sees is recap and release. No one has had any better ideas in 15 years and no one wanna take the blame for messing it up. They can’t even agree to do their job and release or perhaps they will when we hit that 3% cash number or something. Who knows.

Yup ignore works great. I don’t walk down to the local section 8 housing to discuss stocks. Not sure why I would entertain him or other fools just because they happen to have internet.