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Sept 7th's Think Equity report is linked here. It has lots of good info in it you might find interesting:
http://www.thinkthoughts.net/issues/ttcurrent.pdf
TKO is found on page 12 as one of the weeks "top performers" up 11.3%, however, on page 13 it also still carries a "sell" rating based on an "expected decline of 20% or more over the next 12 months". I'd expect this rating to change shortly. They tend to be very late in changing their recommendations... eg. Blue Coat and FSLR should no longer be rated "Buy" IMO, but down graded to "Accumulate", or perhaps "Sell".
Statistic info on the population of the US is very interesting! Have a nice weekend all!
Pops,
If TKO goes cashflow positive from operations to a significant degree in the 3rd quarter, I agree with you it may jump back towards $2.60. For now, I'd be very happy with $1.90 by the end of October, and then a jump over $2 after the CC (in November probably).
I think lot depends on general market conditions and the investing climate by then. I heard an analyst this morning suggest that the Fed may only cut the DISCOUNT rate again rather than the FUNDS rate. Frankly, this makes the most sense to me. The financial institutions need a lot more liquidity. We need the 1/2% FUNDS rate cut to stimulate the market (via the consumer) for sure, but it's not the best move for the economy overall, and will lead to added inflation (from a sinking dollar) next year.
Time will tell, but I think it's looking more and more promising for TKO. Its price performance since late August has been solid!!
BVChuck,
The only shares up on my board today so far are commodity shares (oil, gold, pharmaceuticals) pushing inflationary concerns once again. The value of the dollar hit an all time low today continuing its lengthy decline... not good if we expect foreign countries to continue to finance our growing national debt (a rate cut now could actually be damaging). GDP is at 2%, exactly where the Fed wants it. None of this signals the need for a rate cut on the 18th IMO. I still think the Fed will hold!
At least TKO's hanging in their.
The S&P 500 hasn't gained 2% yet (needs to breach 1480 for me to become more optimistic). Everything is still on hold.
Gip
I think you're right on the 200MB chip... they refer to it as the G-Series, maybe infering GE?
Hi Ouch,
I agree the S&P 500 is the KEY future trend indicator. If we go + or - 2% either side of 1450, I think the next three month direction will be set. If the Fed doesn't cut at all, and my reading is they won't, we're headed down. I did cover all my margin positions today! If the Fed cuts 1/4 we may get a brief rise like you said, but not more than the 2% into Oct. Way too many problems surfacing to shake consumer confidence. I may get out of the market entirely the closer we get to the 18th/19th meeting. IMO Bernanke has mis-read the economy since his appointment and needs a reality check.
Gip
Hi BVChuck,
Here are Yellen's comments:
http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2007/0910.html
I read her as leaning heavily towards a wait and see, no cut at all... that conditions do not currently warrant any cut based on the limited impact of one reading. I think the Fed is seeing inflationary effects globally (China now up to 6.5%) and Europe up also, and wants to see hard negative downturn numbers in employment and a spending here for 2 - 3 months before acting. She commented he housing impact and subprime impact are minor to the overall economy which has been slowing but still OK?
This doesn't bode well for a rate cut on the 18th:
"Fed's Yellen warns rate cut may not happen
San Francisco Fed president says rate policy is not intended to bail out investors.
September 10 2007: 2:03 PM EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said Monday that while market turmoil has the potential to hurt the economy, rate policy should not bail out investors.
The speech, which helped send major gauges lower in early afternoon trade, followed comments from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who said investors should consider Friday's unemployment report alongside a mostly strong batch of retail sales reports seen recently. Over the weekend, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said that the Fed doesn't make rate decisions based on any one number."
IMO, The market has already priced in a 1/4% cut. If we don't get it... there may be trouble ahead. If we do get a rate cut, there won't be any upside left anyway. We could have a major market SNAFU. I think I'm going to step to the sidelines before Friday, and then wait and see what comes to pass. I can't see being invested in the US economy with a declining growth now at under 2%, while China is running at projections of 5 - 10% for 2008. In either case, I think TKO should weather any serious downturn fairly well if it occurs.
I don't want to sound like chicken little. Is anyone else concerned?
It could have been a private placement, or a trade/transfer of ownership between institutions arranged by TKO's transfer company. In any event, it draws market attention to the stock
Good Morning All,
Sirius... TKO spending $75M on consulting fees doesn't bother me at all. Most companies will use outside help to gain better market perspective and financial advise. (In fact, I'd be surprised if they didn't... RP can use all the help he can get.)
Thanks for the recap of the NBR interview by Kangus. As it happens I saw it Friday evening. Here's the latest tidbit I saw on CNNFN this morning that's also predictive: "Merrill Lynch cut earnings estimates on 12 of 15 services stocks it covers, as the broker projects a 65% chance of a U.S. recession." Most of the cuts were in "employment industry" companies like Cornferry and Manpower.
Here's to a good trrading day for TKO!!
FYI, the city of Chicago announced yesterday that it has scraped its plans to implement city wide wi-fi stating it would be under utilized and a poor investment. Earthlink has lost customers (myself included) over the last two years primarily due to service problems and high prices. Laying off 900 will virtually kill their business!
I think you're right Ginni, we'll get the upsurge into October after Labor Day when markets settle down. Nice to see TKO trading in such stable fashion on low volume and in a very nervous, down market today.
Must make the shorts that are left very, very nervous!
Welcome back Sirius... guess I can put the magic 8-ball back into the family time capsule now that you're here again.
Looks like TKO and the markets in general are going to tread water today (consolidating gains)! That suprises me after the CAPJ markets were all up significantly earlier today. There is a lot of money on the sidelines now from what I hear waiting for direction. If interest rates start to go down, it will all be drawn back into the markets.
Hey RBT...
A couple of weeks ago I said 2400 was a critical support to continue the bull vs. a further dip to 2330 or so forming a head and shoulder position. We split the difference at roughly 2360.
I now think 2725 last July was a "left shoulder", not a "head" formation. I think we'll rise into November-January (fed by rate cuts) to a "head" formation of 2800+ (most long term head and shoulder peaks are about six months apart). The right shoulder should occur in June before a 15 - 25% correction (mild 6 month recession) into early 2009. It also fits the election cycle perfectly, feeding off of all the negative talk. It probably will be triggered by falling GDP brought on by the spread of home supply and financial sector problems.
(I was surprised to hear the US is no longer the leading importer of goods from China... that honor now goes to the EU. Any guess as to the cause? I suspect not EU growth, but decline in US consumer spending.) I'd also rethink US global sales on a competitive base with Asia. I noticed on the news, China used Korea Hundyai earth moving equipment to clear rubble from their recient bridge collape, not Catapillar. Tech companies may be in the same shape. What IBM can do, India can do just as well at 10% of the price. "Choose wisely grasshopper!"
Hmmmm... let me check my magic 8 ball... "IT IS DECIDEDLY SO!" There you have it. Confirmed by my primary advisor in Sirius' absence. Gotta run and stack sandbags. Later TKO'ers.
I'm up 8% since Wednesday... IMO $1.90 by Oct is a very probable 32% gain. Since August 2006, I'm up several thousands on my TKO investments. At the risk of sounding like bragard, I don't typically make mistakes in judging stocks. TKO IMO is going to be a winner. If you can time your trades... all the better! The fall run is about to begin, and I'd recommend moderate positions in the beaten down stocks that show promise. If not your style... try 2 year CD's before rates go down.
Yup, TKO sellers are disappearing! Volume is still thin because of the hesitation on market direction. I think we'll very likely get a 1/2% Fed Funds cut on the 18th. Too many major companies are voicing strong opinions that the Fed has overtightened AND NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING NOW! Besides, we're starting to look like a failing economy and loosing market leadership in the eyes of the rest of the world. I now think The NASDAQ has a good chance of continuing the bull run and reaching 2800 during November. (After the first Fed Fund Rate cut following a series of increases, historically the market rises 12%+ over the next year.) TKO is in sync to do very well ($1.90 by October)!
Good trading day... TKO Close: $1.46, up 2.82%! High of $1.50 on healthy purchase volume. Looks like momentum and interest are starting to ramp up. IMO, we're ripe for SP improvement over the next two weeks! Go TKO!!!
BSD... I think you're right! Looks like we're starting to get a leg up out of the hole we're in. I still think we have the potential to get to $1.90 in 3 - 4 weeks, if the markets would just settle down and relax a little.
Too much over reaction and now hesitation. A month ago I heard analysts stating that financial institutions were under valued and a buy. Today they are on the avoidance list. (I just heard forecasters are expecting 2 million mortgage defaults over the next two years and a resulting recession.) The moral of the story is "stick with what you know". Sometimes stocks that have already been beaten down, are the ones that shine through the tough times!!!
Well I couldn't resist... picked up a few more shares at $1.44. I think we'll get a run up into the Fed meeting on 9/18. If they cut 1/2%, the run will probably continue. If they don't, or they only cut 1/4%, I think the market will react negatively... I know I will!
It was updated today for August:
Shares Short 1,713,100
Short % of Float 2.90 %
Shares Short - Prior 2,043,800
Short % Increase / Decrease -16.18 %
Here's the link ED:
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=tko
I posted this yesterday morning on another board... food for thought:
"Capitulation?
Well according to the Bollinger Bands for the NASDAQ, this should be the bottom. I'm not sure there is anything left to scare the investing public with... given housing, sub-prime lending, unemployment, oil, Iraq war, inflation, interest rates, and now China's questionable health and safety concerns. Looks like capitulation today on low volume. NASDAQ 2420 looks like support for the continuation of the current bull market. If we break below it to 2350, I think we'll recover into a right shoulder move up to around 2500 again by December, and then decline into a major recession for 2008 (Fodder for the election year.)"
On the surface, it looks like the bounce back into the close yesterday signals a correction and a resumption of the bull run... but not so fast. The fed discount rate cut today in the early AM may be too little too late. Discount rate cuts should have been done to spur the economy last Spring along with a Fed funds rate cut in May. However, the Fed has been totally preoccupied with inflation. The Fed is still not convinced the economy is in trouble. (On a personal note, ALL of my business contacts have been complainting about economic conditions [sales declines] for at least six months. Also, I watched a Hong Kong analyst report late last night, and this US subprime loan problem is THE primary cause of the GLOBAL collapse as well... it's literally huge in it's impact, and changes the world's view of our economic stability and power. Future global investment in the US will undoubtedly begin to decline. That's really bad news for the future!!!!
BSD mentioned he didn't think this sell off was like 1987. I agree. Unfortunately, it's more like the prelude to the recession of 1990 when the NASDAQ suffered a 44% setback (470 to 325). The historical setting is almost identical as well (Gulf war and all). It's starting to look more and more unavoidable IMO. The Fed must cut the funds rate to 4-1/2 in three quick, successive cuts to lessen its economic impact. Congress must also look to stimulate the economy through reduced spending and tax cuts like the fixing the AMT. Check out this article for more insights: http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/moneymag/0708/gallery.how_youll_know.moneymag/index.html
Sorry to be pessimistic, but all views should be considered!
Gip
Holy smokes! I just checked back in on the market and there is some real carnage taking place. TKO must be reporting something good to sustain a 10% gain on the day!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm really impressed with TKO's resillience in this market today. At the risk of jinxing it, TKO has recovered and held up in amazing fashion... which speaks well for how it might do after this blow-off is done. Volume after 4 hours of trading is only 50,000 which indicates we seem to have run out of sellers at 1.56!
Ain't that the truth... It seems like women always "gotta go"!
Sirius,
I am continually impressed with the quality, insight, and honesty of your posts. Thanks!
Gip
I noticed the pharmaceuticals are doing well today. Must be all the stress related heart attacks the markets are causing this week!
BTW kindness and attention do not appease the onslaught for more attention.
RBT, we agree on everything, especially the relative weakness in the dollar. It's going to hurt us in the end... drive near term inflation and eventually diminish profits over the long haul.
FYI, today reminds me of Oct 1987's drop under Reagan. Very similar economic and political climates. It's a minor decline in comparison so far though.
Depends on whether we close above 2600 tomorrow. If we do, it's probable we'll begin a late summer rally into the fall like we did last year in mid-July. If not, we could over correct down to 2400 which spells problems in the economy for the next two years I'm afraid. It might be the head formation in a head and shoulders pattern, ratern than a correction in a bull trend.
I personally think the sell off at this point is way over done given the revenues and earnings being reported, and we should start to trend back up next week... although (insert caveat here the number of earnings reports that have exceeded expectations this quarter (52%) is less than last quarter (61%) which says things may be getting tougher in the global markets. I'm keeping a close eye on China's markets looking for signs of weakness in their expansion... so far no warning lights. Same with Europe.
How about your read on conditions RBT?
IMO you're going to see new housing starts decline through 2009. New and existing home sales here in the midwest are non-existent. I wouldn't touch home builders for at least a year or more. Way too much inventory. On the otherhand, TKO is looking good for a run back into the $1.90's now. Showing great strength given todays collapse.
MLK, you missed your selling opportunity six weeks ago, and your buying opportunity 3 days ago. Why do you hesitate... do you doubt your omnipotent abilities? Sad to see a god falter.
Has there been any word on when we might see quarterly results for TKO appear?
Good day for TKO so far, despite the sagging overall conditions. We've definitely been in the Summer doldrums. Everything else I own looks like melting neopolitan ice cream on the sidewalk!
Gip
FYI, I bought back in at $1.52.
I think this is the bottom. Some large volume is waiting on the buy side below, and we're currently sitting at the bottom of the Bollinger Bands. Upside looks like the $1.90's like GLL said. Timing looks good... the market sell off last week was way over done. MM's were just looking for an excuse to drive prices down. They should firm the rest of the week.
Question: I don't ever recall the markets and financial institutions being open for only a half-day before the 4th of July. Is this something new, or have we always done it when it falls on a Wednesday?
BTW, I'd like to see that institutional ownership number start to increase over the next few months before getting back in. 12% to 15% would be encouraging!!!
I think some of this recent rise can be attributed to short covering -24% last month. Here's the June report from last week:
TKO $ 1.91
Telkonet Inc -0.04
Shares Short 2,172,500
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 7.3
Short % of Float 3.73 %
Shares Short - Prior 2,857,400
Short % Increase / Decrease -23.97 %
Squeeze Ranking™ -11
% from 52-Wk HIGH ( 4.00 ) -109.42 %
% from 52-Wk LOW ( 1.60 ) 16.23 %
% from 200-Day MA ( 2.55 ) -33.51 %
% from 50-Day MA ( 2.00 )
-4.71 %
Price % Change (52-Wk) -39.40 %
Trading Volume - Today 115,800
Trading Volume - Average 296,600
Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 39.04 %
Total Shares - Float 58,310,000
Total Shares - Outstanding 66,738,486
% Held by Insiders 13.69 %
% Held by Institutions 10.60 %
Market Cap 127,470,508
EPS -0.53
Wow... MSHI is up $0.25 today adding back into TKO's balance sheet. "Holy Cow!" as Harry would say! :-O
It must be that conspiracy theory again... Would everyone please put this guy on ignore like Ginnie suggested; it's pointless to respond, and if you don't respond, he doesn't make any money!
Well the markets sure ended the quarter with a wimper. Unless I miss my guess, I think next week (even though a short week) will move up on SOME optimistic buying. TKO, however, has probably peaked in here at its 1.95 close. I still believe it will continue to trade the 1.65 to 1.85 range through the Summer into mid-August at least. IMO contract announcements with hefty valuations are the only thing that might legitimately trigger a breakout to the upside.
Have a nice weekend everyone.
Hmmmm... Interesting. I got a call from Yana at Porter's asking for my mailing address and e-mail info. She had gotten my name and number from the CC "sign in" two weeks ago. Apparently they are building a contact list of TKO investors and interested parties to send news releases and general information to. That's impressive in my book; shows aggressive investor support.