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Greetings Forex traders. I've been honing my skills through a FXCM practice account and feel confident enough now to put a little real money on the table.
Any recs on a broker? Any opinions on which to avoid?
Thanks!
Good luck!
Fritz
Electronic Sensor Technology Receives $400,000 Order from Beijing R&D Technology
Tuesday 02/17/2009 8:30 AM ET - Businesswire
Electronic Sensor Technology (EST)(OTCBB:ESNR), a leading provider of innovative homeland security, environmental solutions and healthcare solutions, announces the receipt of an order of more than $400,000 from its distributor, Beijing R&D Technology in China. The majority of the units will be used by China for environmental applications.
Electronic Sensor Technology has sold over 100 instruments to China, most of which are employed in the detection of pollutants in rivers and lakes. The effectiveness of the zNose in this application further underscores its versatility and usability.
The Rude Awakening's "Invest in Water" report states, "In an attempt to avert crisis, China plans to spend $125 billion over the next five years to build hundreds of new water treatment plants. That will only be the beginning of the hundreds of billions it will need to spend, if it hopes to ever provide clean water to most of its citizens."
"We expect further growth of the environmental market where the zNose(R) is used as an on-site pre-screener. Additionally, our experience in China demonstrates that the zNose(R) is a valuable instrument with unique capabilities in challenging environments," states Teong Lim, CEO of EST.
For more information on the use of the zNose(R) for environmental, security and healthcare, click the following link:
http://www.estcal.com/
About Electronic Sensor Technology:
Founded in 1995, Electronic Sensor Technology has developed and patented a chemical vapor analysis process with applications for the homeland security and environment markets.
SEC Filings and Forward-Looking Statements
This press release includes forward-looking statements, including the Company's expectations regarding its ability to develop and access capital markets and its ability to achieve expected results in the chemical detection and analysis industry. The forward-looking statements are identified through use of the words "potential," "anticipate," "expect," "planned" and other words of similar meaning. These forward-looking statements may be affected by the risks and uncertainties inherent in the chemical detection and analysis industry and in the Company's business. The Company cautions readers that certain important factors may have affected and could in the future affect the Company's beliefs and expectations, and could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement made by or on behalf of the Company. For a discussion of these factors, please refer to our recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our most recent report on Form 10-KSB. The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof.
SOURCE: Electronic Sensor Technology
Electronic Sensor Technology
Shareholders and Investors
William Wittmeyer, 650-574-1257
Halozyme to Present at Roth Capital Growth Conference
Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq:HALO), a biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing products targeting the extracellular matrix for the endocrinology, oncology, dermatology, and drug delivery markets, today announced that David A. Ramsay, Halozyme’s CFO will present at the Roth Capital Partners 21stAnnual Growth Stock Conference on Tuesday, February 17, 2009 at 4:00 p.m. PST (7:00 p.m. EST) at the Ritz-Carlton Laguna Niguel in Dana Point, California.
Interested parties can access a live audio webcast and accompanying slides of the company presentation via the Internet by visiting the Investor Relations section of Halozyme’s Web site at www.halozyme.com. An archived presentation will be available on the Halozyme Web site for 30 days following the presentation date.
About Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.
Halozyme is a biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing products targeting the extracellular matrix for the endocrinology, oncology, dermatology and drug delivery markets. The company's portfolio of products and product candidates is based on intellectual property covering the family of human enzymes known as hyaluronidases and additional enzymes that affect the extracellular matrix. Halozyme’s Enhanze™ Technology is a novel drug delivery platform designed to increase the absorption and dispersion of biologics. The company has key partnerships with Roche to apply Enhanze Technology to Roche’s biological therapeutic compounds for up to 13 targets and with Baxter BioScience to apply Enhanze Technology to Baxter’s biological therapeutic compound, GAMMAGARD LIQUID. Halozyme’s research pipeline candidates target significant areas of unmet medical need. For more information visit www.halozyme.com.
20 day ema still holding as a line of support.
(Link back to my prior message for chart)
We did close below that yesterday (Tuesday) but I'll consider that as a mulligan due to the great market downdraft prevalent that day. Today, Weds., we closed exactly on the line and so the consolidation trend which has been evident for the past 5 weeks remains intact for now.
Today we closed green with lighter volume which is a bullish sign IMHO, as light volume normally has a downward bias. We appear ready to resume the push through to the $7.00 range barring market disruptions like we experienced yesterday. If this bears out then I will continue to hold to the notion that we could hit $10 in the near term (i.e.by the end of Q2). The action in the next week to ten days will be most telling. If we close below the 20 day ema again then we're likely to see a significant sell off so keep a close eye. More likely, though, is a close above $6.00 by Friday with a resumption of the up trend next week.
AIMHO, of course.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Thoughts on the 20 day exponential moving average.
We haven't closed below the 20 ema on the daily chart since early December.
This is an important support line here and I think it will hold, given the overall strength in the biotech sector in general and HALO in particular.
Moreover, the 20 ema is rising to meet the 200 ema. The last time this happened vis a vis HALO we moved up to $8.26.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Here is the actual chart I wanted to post.
Stockcharts.com sometimes thwarts one's efforts. If this one doesn't stick I'll delete this post and viewers are encouraged to see the chart in the i-box.
Eric Oberg on the UltraShort Treasury ETF - 13383 views
This was written by Eric Oberg and originally published on RealMoney.
Editor's note: Eric Oberg is back again. We have received a few questions about the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF, so rather than answer each individually, here is a quick answer to the question below.
Does the TBT -- Treasury UltraShort -- have the same compounding issues that other UltraShort ETFs have?
Oberg: OK, I'm glad this came up again. My thinking has really started to evolve around the concept of being short Treasuries. (I have been asked by probably half a dozen people over the last week and a half, through the Web site and in person, about the concept of shorting Treasuries.)
As for the technical issues, the short answer is yes -- as a double short, it is subject to the same issues. However, it is really the volatility that kills these things, and it appears that the less volatile sectors do not suffer from the dramatic underperformance as the highly volatile sectors (and I believe that the narrower the sector, the more they influence the underliers, and thus they create their own volatility). But the Treasury market is probably the deepest we have, so activity in any Treasury ETF shouldn't really wag the dog.
For full disclosure, I really only looked in depth at performance of ProShares UltraShort Financials (SKF), ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (SRS) and ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXP), just because those sectors seemed to be the most talked about, and those also moved around the most.
Now, with that said, I have been thinking about the concept of shorting Treasuries, just in general. In 1998 when I ran the ABS trading desk at Goldman, my "hedge" for the book during the Long Term Capital Management crisis was to go out and buy Treasuries at 50 or 75 basis points of negative carry. This is opposite of a normal hedge, where you'd short Treasuries to insulate from the interest rate risk in a credit/ABS book. So while I do agree that the prospect of 3% over the next 20 to 30 years seems pretty dismal, I do believe that owning Treasuries is really one of the few hedges one has against risky assets.
Think of it this way: If you short Treasuries and if risky assets continue to come under pressure, then Treasuries will become even more "dear" (to use a British term). So in a way, shorting Treasuries is doubling up a bet on risky assets -- it is essentially the same thing as buying risky assets, so why not just go out and buy a risky asset instead where the upside may be better? (Albeit, there is probably more potential downside with risky assets than in shorting Treasuries.)
This past week, Goldman's economics group put out an interesting study about cyclical turning points and asset market activity. Goldman took eight pages to describe what I am going to attempt to summarize in a few sentences, but it found that generally speaking, risk assets tend to trough before interest rates and commodities. The thought is that equities are more leveraged to growth risk, and bonds/commodities more leveraged to the amount of slack and inflation. The group found the trough in yields to be around the peak of unemployment (more or less), whereas the trough in equities and equity volatility was sooner.
So, will it be the same this time around? Who knows? But I do believe that being short Treasuries at this point is doubling up risk exposure -- Treasuries are your main hedge of the world going pear-shaped (particularly if you are a U.S.-based investor). And although I mentioned that I am not thrilled by the return prospects their yield implies, I would not want to be short just yet. I believe you will have time for that ... but now may be too early.
One other point. With the overnight rate as low as it can get, the Fed will use other measures (quantitative easing, etc.), and the central bank has stated that those could include assuring rates will be kept low for quite some time and targeting term rates. And if we do go further into debt deflation, you want to own debt, not owe debt...
I am working on some follow-ups to my "When Capitalism Ate Itself" piece, and while I have not put words to paper yet, I have some vague thoughts about the market not really healing until we develop less of a speculative mind-set and more of an investment mind-set. The numerous questions I have received about two-times shorting Treasuries tells me we still have some wood to chop!
Know what you own: A number of bond-related ETFs might be of interest to readers of this column, including the SPDR Barclays Short-Term Municipal Bond ETF (SHM) , the SPDR Barclays Municipal Bond ETF (TFI), the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), the iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), the iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY), the iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) and the iShares Barclays 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH).
Posted on Jan. 26, 2009
http://www.stockpickr.com/problog/1349/
Some charting thoughts.
End of Summer and Early Autumn '08 you may remember we were beginning to recover from the analyst downgrade debacle and were comfortably trading in the $7.00 to $8.00 range and contemplating an ascent back to $10.00. Rod was openly salivating over the prospect of a real short squeeze. Ahh, those were the days...
Well, IMHO, we are about to get back to the future in short order and finish what were started in the fall before we were so rudely interrupted by the threat of banking armageddon in October and November. The chart is extremely instructive and easy to read in this particular instance.
After bottoming under $3.00 we've gone straight up to $6.40 and it was clear at that point that we had to take a breather and go through a consolidation phase brought on by obvious and necessary profit taking by those who rode this for a double. Today we crossed the 200 day moving average for the first time in about three weeks demonstrating that we've completed that phase and buyers are patiently accumulating. We are moving up on light to moderate volume, a bullish sign, as lower volume levels typically see a downward drift.
HALO's pps is going to begin moving upwards again in gentle stair step fashion back to the $8.00 area with a likely trading range of ~$7.50-8.50. This is possible within the next 2-3 weeks barring other market dislocation events.
Last time I checked short interest remained very high so Rod may yet be vindicated. As we blow through the six handle back to the mid sevens shorts may be moved to cover an already risky position
and we could temporarily see a pretty squeeze pushing us near nine bucks, but that remains to be seen. Short squeeze or no, $8.00 is our next stop on this ride.
In addition to the usual HALO dynamics of compelling pipeline mixed with short interest, we have a new force at play which I've mentioned in recent posts here, namely, biotech is seeing rotational interest by institutions and hedge funds. This was already under way but the Phizer deal has broadened that interest and is bringing it to full bloom. While HALO is not a takeover candidate due to a well crafted poison pill, management will certainly listen to offers of a reasonable nature. See R. Kirk's New River deal as an example of what I'm talking about.
It's been said before but has never been more true: Big pharma has lots of cash but dwindling pipelines. This rotational trend is largely the result of the necessity for big buyouts and HALO should see, and is probably seeing now, investors moving in for that speculative reason alone.
All told, $8.00 is an easy move from here, with $9.00-10.00 in the cards. AIMHO, of course!
Stay tuned! (chart below)
-Fritz
Halozyme Therapeutics Presents Positive Pre-Clinical Single Agent Data for PEGPH20
Significant Single Agent Anti-Tumor Activity Observed With PEGPH20 in Tumor Models That Accumulate Hyaluronan
Extended Half-Life of PEGPH20 Allows Continued Depletion of Hyaluronan From Tumors Following Systemic Administration
SAN DIEGO, Jan. 26, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq:HALO), a biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing products targeting the extracellular matrix, today announced the presentation of positive pre-clinical animal efficacy data for PEGPH20 (pegylated-rHuPH20 enzyme) monotherapy at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Advances in Prostate Cancer Research meeting in San Diego. The study demonstrated that repeat intravenous treatment with PEGPH20 as a single agent in the PC3 mouse model resulted in approximately 70% (p=0.001) tumor growth inhibition compared to controls.
"This study demonstrates that a sustained depletion of hyaluronan from the tumor microenvironment with PEGPH20 is associated with a suppression of tumor cell expansion," stated Gregory Frost, Ph.D., Halozyme's Chief Scientific Officer. "By treating the tumor as an organ rather than just individual cancer cells, novel complementary approaches to treating this disease may be possible."
Halozyme continues to prepare for the commencement of a Phase 1 single agent clinical trial during the first half of 2009 with intravenously administered PEGPH20 in treatment refractory cancer patients. Additional investigations are also underway to explore combinations of PEGPH20 with other targeted and cytotoxic agents for potential clinical investigation.
Additional Study Results and Details
Various prostate cancer cell lines were screened in vitro for the production of pericellular coats comprised of hyaluronan (HA), the substrate for the PEGPH20 enzyme. Several aggressive prostate cancer cell lines that produce HA-rich coats surrounding the tumor cells collapsed in the presence of PEGPH20. Moreover, PEGPH20 significantly suppressed the growth of coat producing human prostate cancer cells within a three-dimensional matrix in a dose dependent fashion, suggesting such cells require HA to rapidly expand into the surrounding microenvironment.
Treatment of human PC3 prostate tumors in athymic mice with intravenous PEGPH20 resulted in a rapid, dose-dependent depletion of HA from the tumor microenvironment. Accumulation of HA in tumors such as PC3, correlates with increased tumor growth, metastases and elevated interstitial fluid pressure. Continued enzymatic depletion of HA from PC3 tumors with intravenous PEGPH20 was associated with a 70% tumor growth inhibition and an approximate doubling in time to progression. In contrast, no suppression of tumor volume growth or increase in time to progression was observed with PEGPH20 treatment of an HA negative prostate tumor, Du145.
Pegylation refers to the covalent attachment of polyethylene glycol to a molecule, usually a drug or therapeutic protein. The pegylation of rHuPH20 increases its plasma half-life to greater than 24 hours compared to less than one minute for the unpegylated enzyme, therefore resulting in a longer duration of action.
About Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.
Halozyme is a biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing products targeting the extracellular matrix for the endocrinology, oncology, dermatology and drug delivery markets. The company's portfolio of products and product candidates is based on intellectual property covering the family of human enzymes known as hyaluronidases and additional enzymes that affect the extracellular matrix. Halozyme's Enhanze(tm) Technology is a novel drug delivery platform designed to increase the absorption and dispersion of biologics. The company has key partnerships with Roche to apply Enhanze Technology to Roche's biological therapeutic compounds for up to 13 targets and with Baxter BioScience to apply Enhanze Technology to Baxter's biological therapeutic compound, GAMMAGARD LIQUID. Halozyme's research pipeline candidates target significant areas of unmet medical need. For more information visit www.halozyme.com.
The Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. logo is available at http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/prs/?pkgid=5750
Safe Harbor Statement
In addition to historical information, the statements set forth above include forward-looking statements (including, without limitation, statements concerning future clinical trials and benefits associated with PEGPH20) that involve risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements are also identified through use of the words "believe," "enable," "may," "will," "could," "intends," "estimate," "anticipate," "plan," "predict," "probable," "potential," "possible," "should," "continue," and other words of similar meaning. Actual results could differ materially from the expectations contained in forward-looking statements as a result of several factors, including regulatory approval requirements and competitive conditions. These and other factors that may result in differences are discussed in greater detail in the company's reports on Forms 10-K, 10-Q, and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
CONTACT: Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.
Robert H. Uhl, Senior Director, Investor Relations
(858) 704-8264
ruhl@halozyme.com
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=175436&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1248119&highlight=
TBT chart: looks poised to roll over next week.
Plan is to use the put profits to buy back the covered calls at a lower price. After that, we'll see.
Good luck!
-Fritz
In the mean time I bought TBT Feb 44 puts @ $2.00 today. I think it's topped out after a nice run and looks like it needs to pull back a bit, at least for a day or two.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Yes, saw the insider buys at BoA. I was surprised but in the end I think the large banks will bring more pain.
Bought some GG and will write some covered calls today if I get my price.
My TBT covered call was at a 43. It's now itm but the stock (at near 45) has not yet been assigned. Is it typical for the call holders to normally wait til expiration and let their bet ride?
Good luck!
-Fritz
How's the Forex going for you, Maksim?
I just signed up for a practice account. Trying to familiarize myself with the interface and charting setups.
Looks like it could be fun and profitable but I'm proceeding cautiously.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Yes, with T-Bill rates so low there is very little down side risk with TBT, IMHO.
-Fritz
Sold TBT Feb 43 covered calls for $.95 today. Should be able to reel them back in a few times before OE next month.
This is my second go at this on my TBT holdings. So far so good.
-Fritz
I got smoked on GE and qqqq calls as well. I over-optimistically commited to an anticipated "Obama bounce" in late December. Seemed like a good idea at the time LOL.
I'm intrigued by your foray into Forex. What's your strategy? Just playing the Yen swings?
Good luck!
-Fritz
Reznor try bigcharts.com.
They can go back 10 days on options. Note the format for inputing the options call letters. First 3 letters, equal sign, then last two letters. E.G., tbt=ap
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=tbt%3Dap&sid=0&o_symb=tbt%3Dap&freq=9&time=1
Good luck,
-Fritz
If he knows he read it here first!
LOL!
-Fritz
Yes, I noticed that. Why the run-up to $.70 last week?
-Fritz
If he doesn't read this message board he might not know he was terminated.
Poor guy is likely sitting at his desk wondering why it was moved to the basement next to the furnace room.
-Fritz
Interesting, Maksim. I haven't tried my hand at forex. You play in that arena also?
-Fritz
$.04 was not the "previous low". Another poster came around here not so long ago and claimed that $.05 would likely be "revisited". Both are mistaken. This basic error is based upon reading charts exclusively and remaining ignorant of other aspects of due diligence. In fact, these prices pertain to the shell corporation that pre-existed DPDW.
DPDW stock has never seen these so called "previous lows".
-Fritz
GE open interest for JAN $17.50 calls is over 88,000 contracts.
I bet we get pretty darn close to that strike as the week wears on. Should be interesting.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Having listened to all of the the Q conference calls over the last 2 years I can confirm that this statement is completely accurate.
-Fritz
Gleno that's an ugly chart. I'm hoping there are some wicked curves ahead not marked on your map. LOL.
Good luck!
-Fritz
In the past few years Big Pharma has been worrying about their drying pipelines. IMHO, this is the year that the big pharmas are transitioning from from fretting about it to actually getting out their check books and making deals. It seems that the JPM conference this week will serve as a catalyst to this process. Data will be closely scrutinized and personalities will meet face to face.
If HALO is going to increase its partnership roster, now is the time. I'm not arguing that deals will be announced from the floor of the conference center, but I do believe that deals will flow from this meeting.
2009 is shaping up to be the year of biotech, IMHO, and HALO should prove to be a significant player.
Good luck!
-Fritz
I bought back my TBT covered calls a few days ago for a 20% gain.
Spent the better part of today looking to sell some more but was waiting for TBT to show some life before going to market with them. Of course, the day came and went and TBT just sagged like an undercooked cake. LOL.
-Fritz
To get back on goal ???
Not sure what you mean.
-Fritz
Got it, thanks. So as far as today's lesson learned:
options offered without a time premium are an example of mis-pricing by the market and are to be given a close look as a potential buy.
Thanks again and good luck!
-Fritz
Yes, I was with you on the reason for the put, i.e., that CY was overbought. I confirmed that chart wise and in comparison to other techs like INTC, NVDA, and CSCO, all of which already had their pullback.
Thanks to your comments I see that there is no time premium in the price. However, you do continue to risk a loss if the pps goes higher, no? Concretely, what would be your strategy if, in the next week, the pps goes to $5.90? How about if it goes to $6.20?
Thanks again. Your comments are very instructive.
Regards,
-Fritz
Maksim:
I'm trying to understand your CY put transaction. I assume that I am correct that if the pps goes below $4.90 then the value of your puts rises. (That much makes sense to me LOL!)
But if the pps rises you are not risking anything (other than commission) because ???
Thanks!
-Fritz
Halozyme Receives $5.5 Million Payment From Baxter
SAN DIEGO, Jan. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:HALO), a biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing products targeting the extracellular matrix for the endocrinology, oncology, dermatology, and drug delivery markets, today announced receipt of $5.5 million from Baxter Healthcare Corporation representing the final prepaid product-based payment due under the terms of its HYLENEX licensing agreement, which provides Baxter with exclusive distribution rights. The payment has been booked as deferred revenue.
About Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.
Halozyme is a biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing products targeting the extracellular matrix for the endocrinology, oncology, dermatology and drug delivery markets. The company's portfolio of products and product candidates is based on intellectual property covering the family of human enzymes known as hyaluronidases and additional enzymes that affect the extracellular matrix. Halozyme's Enhanze Technology is a novel drug delivery platform designed to increase the absorption and dispersion of biologics. The company has key partnerships with Roche to apply Enhanze Technology to Roche's biological therapeutic compounds for up to 13 targets and with Baxter BioScience to apply Enhanze Technology to Baxter's biological therapeutic compound, GAMMAGARD LIQUID. Halozyme's research pipeline candidates target significant areas of unmet medical need. For more information visit http://www.halozyme.com/.
Halozyme Contact Robert H. Uhl Senior Director, Investor Relations (858) 704-8264
DATASOURCE: Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc.
CONTACT: Robert H. Uhl, Senior Director, Investor Relations of Halozyme,
+1-858-704-8264,
Web Site: http://www.halozyme.com/
-------------------------------------------------
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=175436&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1240740&highlight=
Thanks for your thoughts. My basis is $40.70. What would you think about selling an ITM call such as the June 40 currently going for $6.90? If my shares were immediately called it looks like a $6.00 profit, no?
-Fritz
Maksim, Greetings and Happy new Year.
I have been reading your board with interest and have decided to try my hand at covered call writing. My selected play is focused on the recently called "bubble" in the safe haven of US treasuries.
Thus I bought shares of TBT and am looking for some guidance on the best strategy in writing calls on this ETF. Currently the June 43 calls are fetching a nice premium at about $6.00 but I was wondering if you'd counsel a shorter time frame?
Thanks for your thoughts!
Good luck!
-Fritz
Happy Holidays, everyone!
I'll be vacationing until Jan 5th.
Here's hoping the New Year brings us all peace, contentment and a higher pps!
Best Wishes and Good luck!
-Fritz
Spoken like a Dutch Uncle.
Thanks, Uncleremus! Well said.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Crude futures show oil not down here for long.
I got this chart from another board. My thanks to the poster who brought it to my attention.
Check out http://data.tradingcharts.com/futures/quotes/CL.html
for updated quotes.
The pros think oil won't be down here for long. Oil E&P companies are planning their budgets months and years ahead. Today's dip is most assuredly temporary. Deep Down's products and services will continue to be in demand.
AIMHO.
Good luck!
-Fritz
Biotech is starting to get some attention in general as it seems that the institutional investors have jointly decided to rotate into this sector. I believe that this is the source of the volume today which was indeed most impressive. In this instance at least, the trend will be our friend. While the chart today (see my post from a few days ago) shows some signs that the pps needs to take a short breather from this week's run, we'll likely catch the wave again shortly thereafter.
Who knows, our intrepid HALO management might see their bonuses after all if we hit $7.00 before years end.
AIMHO.
Good luck!
-Fritz