waiting for the other foot to fall
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their biggest problem with sideways is exactly why they both went to zero -- they promise volatility and when the market is flay they must resort to predictable and manipulative trading to create volatility. Forcing volatility is lossy so the net result is both FAS and FAZ losing money.
they are separate and distinct equities.
it was a fun but painful weekend with new insights and the bruises they were learned through ;)
having some support at the 50 day and the lower 1/2 channel trend lineat ~8.70 (edit: cannot read the blue on black IQChart default!) but there is little tangible support from there to ~7.25. Raising buy limit a little to make up for the rising bottom of channel over time.
Out for the weekend and then on Shanghai time next week...
gotta love trading on autopilot.
the chart is emphatic. $7's in a day or two.
retraced and broke the 10 day average but ultimately ended there. Also happens to be the middle of the channel it's in now. tested but held support on the 20 day average.
Expect a test of the 50 day average and ultimately the bottom of the channel at 7.25...I'm guessing Friday/Monday on the bottom then two weeks to run back to top of channel...
testing a minor support at 9.60 on the 30 minute chart and the former resistance/support line at 10.00.
I expect it will also revisit 9.15, 8.75 and 8.25 before hitting the lower limit of the up-channel.
Charts like this just tell me one thing - manipulation. Those with time to actively trade this can play the intraday volatility, but the longer cycles are clearly "managed" in their regularity. Don't bet against the house.
in under 8 (within 2 weeks) out over 14 (within 4 weeks)?
will retest support in the low 7's then run again.
What? So if the ETF isn't volatile enough, people can now trade options on an ETF based on options? Sheesh.
nice recovery after the cardiac stress test...
should test the SAR at $10 next.
This low is still higher than 3/30 and the bounce confirms the uptrend.
ouch, caught a falling knife yesterday... through the hand and into the foot...
sad thing is I raised my bottom feeder buy!
Looks like a bounce off the SAR and hopefully back into the channel.
options that the fund manager of FAS trades can expire and many probably do. it does not matter since you are trading a share of that pool of traded capital, not the options themselves.
FAS will react to options expiration 3x more so than the market sector that it represents at large.
I left some on the table getting out at close Thursday but I'm still looking for a lower entry. Support is up from 6.50 to 6.75 so I'll need to rethink my open buy order...
you have a doppelganger here in Maine...
kissed my sell limit 3 minutes before the close!
I think a little market wishy-washiness and I buy back in Monday at 6.50...
opened over the falling SAR and just broke the 50 day EMA. My upchannel show support around $6 and top of the up channel at $14.48. Midband at 9.64.
If the 50 day EMA becomes support (it was in Jan/Feb) then I see resistance at $9.64, $11.50 and $14.48.
Mostly I see resistance at reality and this up-channel is mostly going to be testing the low side and consolidating $7 +/- a bit.
Love to see it kiss $9 first though.
To my friends I have been saying 10-15% inflation within 4 years - think Carter era. The only way to make 10 trillion dollars of debt manageable is dilution, which is inflationary.
the experts were saying all kinds of things about the new economy as they sold the bubble and even shorted into the bubble a decade ago. If the experts are preaching doom and gloom it's at the bottom. May take a while to recover, but it's bottomed and they are accumulating.
old school technical analysis (TA) -
head and shoulders (not the shampoo) is a triple top where the middle peak is higher than the two side peaks. It is regarded as a sign that the stock has done all it can to the upward (three strikes - you're out).
inverted head and shoulders - same thing upside down. Considered a trailing indicator of a true reversal.
Then again our government has a hand in this so the T&A you pursued is probably a better indicator of upward motion!
just when you think its time to pull the chips, the right shoulder fully develops on the chart...
retested the ascension line, looks good for tomorrow into next weeek.
I smell an ascending wedge into resistance at $7.50. A scant six weeks ago that was support. In that six weeks an inverted head and shoulders is formed suggesting true bottom and long term reversal.
Then again, I could just consult tea leaves with more meaning!
On the support side of the wedge is $5.25 and climbing SAR, $5.65 MA-20 and $5.68 MA-10
On the upside resistance is the $9.88 MA-50
Is there a financial event in the next 3-5 trading days that would determine breakout vs. collapse?
eh, back in at 6.20. Will look for an exit around 9.
in at 6 before the true bottom but my original limit was taken at open. Looking for a good reentry for another flip --
$6.20 thinking more steak or $5.50 retest of support?
Charts look poised for more gains but I'd hate to hold through true bottom for 40% where those more patient than I made 100%+.
No,
This will turn around the week after that. I'll be in China and my GTC will expire the day before it happens... count on it.
my buys at $6 looked absolutely brilliant at the time too !!!
Lets hope you make 10x!
Buying seats is OK, selling them is corrupt. Who says so? The people that successfully bought seats make the rules.
If I were the wealthy I'd be giving the Gov't the same terms they attached to the bailout - senior preferred equity in the government!
same here but I will settle for filling the unfilled gap back at $7.50 if I have to.
Looks like, unlike Congress, the markets read the stimulus bill...
I'm just lloking for the gap down from Monday to get filled. I was sure that was happenning thsi morning.
Are you suggesting that people are shortselling FAS or the individual financial companies it represents?
In at 6 on the gap gill. Hope it was a temporary gap fill and not a gap & trap!.
Fractions went away just after I started trading. Left techs just before the bubble for the wild wild west (VSE and BB). Made money till i fell in love with one's concept. Lost it all.
Called it tuition and started over, made most of it back. Took my own startup to a sale (no public stock) and my sevitude to the buyers is close enough to satisfied that it's time to make time.
I probably don't have time to minute trade obvious scams and MOMO's so hour/day/week trading these might make sense. Thinking some high beta AMEX bottom feeding too. Think I'll watch for a couple weeks and see. Prolly find some reading on ETF's as well.
Thanks
SmallCapFundNYC, (or anyone else)
I've been out of trading for several years and looking to get back into it after i reaquaint myself with it. Is there a generic read on these "3x funds"? They seem to have the volatility I used to work with but I need a better idea of what I would be trading...
TIA.