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I find it odd that no matter what day of the week I come here, I see a new post which
1. mentions the audit
2. refutes it, often with an ad hominem attack against Nils, like "Nils is a Jabroni stealing from you" (which may indeed be true)
3. refutes the refute telling people to be patient, this SNAFU is completely normal.
Almost like its some sort of PsyOp for newbies to the board. The negative comments being not as bad or overwhelmed by the "positive" ones.
Nils Davis:
DDV has been prodding Nils on Twitter:
$BMXI https://t.co/LblcuDwSsi The Dirty Nil - Official Website "If the shoe fits, wear it".. Just file the Form 10. So anti climatic at this point.
— Due Diligence Virtuoso (@stock_hacker) July 5, 2023
I hear you. All good points.
What is complicated about the miners is the fact that many of them have
1. multiple projects
2. at different stages
3. in multiple countries
4. with varying degrees of ownership JV or Streaming payments % on individual mines OR the entire company revenue/production. BMXI good example of that.
5. Each with different grades, production costs, etc.,
So, I think to get to that level of granularity we need to create profiles for each project instead of the company as a whole. I mean, in theory, using the summarized features is a sort of average for the company, and if all of them are treated in the same manner, its a form of standardization, but not as specific. We're also leaving out a higher PM price scenario, (and, to be fair, a lower PM price scenario).
* I will concede that one giant red flag makes the rest of it moot. e.g. Permitting. Look at Northen Dynasty, one of the biggest deposits in the world on paper. No permit = $0 fair value.
** Or inexperienced, untrustworthy CEOs constantly overpromising and underdelivering, playing games, etc: $Billions$ of Oz but market won't touch it with a 10 foot pole.
Here's step two to that.
Take those companies which are the closest matches and figure out the value the market places on their key features, here I just used resource oz's, and net profit to keep it simple.
Read into this what you will, but we're a few percent away from being the bottom of the bucket against actual peers.
Pretty sobering. Very thorough, goes beyond the usual ad hominem stuff.
"Northern Dynasty's cash balance declined by US$3.5 million in Q1 2023 from US$10.5 million to US$7.0 million. At that rate of cash burn, Northern Dynasty would have enough cash to last two quarters, until the end of Q3 2023."
"The estimated value of USD$0.10 per share just reflects a small amount of option value on Pebble, with the most likely value being $0."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4605567-northern-dynasty-minerals-stock-permit-reconsideration-unlikely-have-positive-result
And one of the comments which I am aligned with, right or wrong, time will tell.
"The opposition will be pushed away when copper shortage gets so much worse because of booming renewable and EV growth. The Pebble will be identified as strategic which will mean that no opposition can stop it. I dont know when. Maybe years away!"
On that note, I heard an interesting thought the other day. The EPA at the behest of government could be implementing some sort of long term strategy to hold back domestic reserves until the rest of the world depletes theirs, so USA is in a better position in the decades to come. Woe to our NAK positions though.
Companies with values in each one of these categories which are within 10% of Brookmounts:
Then you sort by companies with the most overlaps.
It would be interesting to compare companies according to negatives as well... red flags and such. If there's anything else I should add let me know, open to suggestion.
Here's the best I could do so far.
You take a few dozen features, mostly mining related. Then for each feature you find the companies which are the closest 10% higher and lower than Brookmount.* Then you tally up the ones with the most overlapping features count, then sort it.
*Subjective.
Next step would be to see how the market values each of those peer companies' KEY MINING related features, arrive at an average multiple for each, then compare it to Brookmount and see if we're over or undervalued on them. Still subjective, but better than comparing us to whoever, the Walmarts, Pepsi's of miners. This is also held back a little by the absence and/or unreliability of data from Nils' patchwork of presentations.
Am I overthinking things?
Shouldn't we be comparing BMXI to companies with a like set of features? The O'Neill report puts BMXI and Nils in the same ballpark as some of the most well run companies in the world, and sprinkled in a few sh*tburger ones to not seem totally offbase. And that's how we arrived at the $6PT? It just doesn't seem kosher.
We think alike.
"Almost left out paying for the mining initiative in North America. Not to mention the Brazil deal down the road. imho"
That was my point last week, asking rhetorically "what does the audit prove"? i.e., if it merely proves the numbers I use for my inputs when comparing them against 1000 other mining companies, then, well, lets just get passed 30 cents first to prove we're an average Gold miner. Hopefully what it will do is lift the veil of uncertainty, then we move from the bottom of the valuation envelope to the midpoint and beyond. Before the last call, the inputs afforded us a much higher average around, whatever it was, 60-80 cents. Forgive me for trusting my lying eyes:
Agreed. For me the next news event is the 2024 election. Or some other news out of South America further putting pressure on the copper supply.
Although there was this the other day, don't see it mentioned:
https://alaskabeacon.com/2023/06/13/pebble-mine-company-to-pay-shareholders-who-claim-they-were-duped/
[url=https://ibb.co/0pLMdYY][/url]
For me its a bet on that highlighted part being reversed when Washington wakes up to the fact the global south no longer wants its lunch to be eaten by the rest of the developed world. I heard an interview recently how a lot of these countries are becomming more hostile to miners, because they want a seat at the table, or rather, a higher up position on the value chain, i.e., develop their own industries to refine the raw materials, not just a supplier of it to offshore industry. China is egging this on, maybe enough to make politicians here have to ease up on domestic supply of materials. Who knows... worth a shot here, imho.
Fair point. Total lotto ticket.
I just like that this is the outlier to end all outliers with respect to valuation and resources in situ.
No I mean it, I'm going somewhere with this.
Remind me. What will this audit prove/disprove again?
The report compares BMXI to "peers" which are some of the most advanced and well run mining operations in the world.
I was rereading the Analyst report again. Can anyone actually confirm 40% insider ownership is correct?
To be fair to Nils, lots of sh*tburger miners don't even update anyone at all.
Then one day "whoops" we're diluting, or "whoops" the assay makes it unviable, ... Thanks for playing ... And its gone.
I still perceive activity, though it can be construed as "stringing us along" as better than no activity. The rest is a risk we take for being early here or any miner really. For me, no need to freak out right now: thesis still in tact (minus some recent adjustments).
You don't have to convince me.
Convince the NIMBY culture that copper doesn't grow on trees.
And their EV isn't made of magic metal synthesized in a lab out of thin air.
Yea same. There's a hapazardness to it all, which lets hope, is part of the greater leonite situation context where it seems like playing things close to the vest is the strategy until "boom time?" And then Nils wows us with: New Website, Great Presentation, Marketing, Numbers Upfront, Path To Production, Youtube Interviews with dozens of mining channels, etc.. We should expect that of him, frankly Until then I just go by the fundamentals. Which reminds me, I winced hard when Nils corrected the press release, where we went from 250k inferred and 100k measured at Brazil, to just 100k inferred at Brazil. I had to adjust things alot, and figured out the new multiple to reach the average valuation in this category is 3-4x from here, all things remaining equal, 30-36 cents a share. But hey, I'll take a 3x in this dogsh*t market any day.
*Thats without the uplisting, I'll try to compare the big board names specifically and recalculate it. I'm sure its a higher multiple to reach average.
I'm of that exact opinion myself. Which is why the red flag list actually does matter a lot. Maybe not in the context of this leonite business being a major catapult, (I do hope its true), I can tell you no one is interested in us to get beyond this $6m MC, and to $20m floor where we at least belong, imho. Too many sh*tburger miners out there Nils needs to rise above. But I dunno, I see him on that trajectory.
But DDV says such people aren't going to drive price now or in the future.
In other words:
The most undervalued mining company in the universe
First time I've ever heard asking a mining CEO about the gold they mine being a waste of time.
But, in your case I'll make an excepetion.
-22% TODAY.
As enthusiastic as we all are on here during the good times, I hope to see many of you as enthusiastic at the meeting tomorrow.
9AM, sharp.
https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_0TIwFkM4Q9anjtKPbJ-RBg#/registration
I'll be asking some at the meeting.
The more the merrier, so I welcome everyone to throw Nils some fast balls down the center, no curveballs necessary. If he can't hit some of these, its a problem. If he can, more the power to him and us.
Remember, they're trading at a steep discount relative to its peers, we need to find out if its for a good reason, or, we're really onto something here and the market hasn't caught it yet.
Agreed. To that end, here's a list of red flags from about 1000 other mining companies combined which result in the smorgasbord of valuations between them.
You guys tell me where we're at. Already I see some we're not suffering from, some which we are, and others we simply don't know either way.
IMHO, and to your point, the more of these he can scratch off, the more seasoned $$$ mining investors he'll attract.
*We're valued at 0.6% Marketcap-to-(AuOz*Spot) last time I ran the numbers (may have changed since), the average for the two categories which BMXI most closely belongs is 3%-7%, so a clear 5x at least, from here just to be among the average for that one metric. 5x-10x if Nils can just be average.
P.S., the NYSE/NASDAQ players we're comparing ourselves to, they command 10-20% MC/GOLDoz*SPOT.
Rick Rule: "A Great Mining CEO Can't Shut Up About His Project"
All of this info should be on the website.
On that note:
Rule Classroom: Interrogating Potential Investments
Short term? Or in general?
I think its an issue of Production / Cash Flow
Looking at the marketwide stats, there are zero miners who a marketcap greater than $20m with <10,000 AuOz yearly production. Except for ones with giant reserves of AuOz in the millions. (that includes silver miners with Ag converted to Au equivalent). There are just 4 with zero production and less than a million, all around $20m Mc.
Not worried though, its all falling into place here. The moment Nils announces that Brazil or the new Canadian property is operational, look out. Also interesting they want to expand the one operation already producing with this trip to Indonesia = more cash flow, sooner.
Has anyone actually been able to find their production numbers?
I had to reverse engineer it from quarterly + the news release the other day.
Assuming --> $18m / ~$1900 per ounce = 9500oz
$6 is a real interesting number, just by comparison to other miners. I think that puts them at ~$350m market cap right? $350m in gold is 170,000 ounces @$2k gold. More is involved, costs, debt, etc., but just in the broadest sense, taking all their press releases and what not at face value, they're at 125k. Its just not 125k "Proven" yet.
75k Brazil (75%) inferred
12k Atlin + 39k Moosehorn ... proven/probable