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New deals appear to be a bit more difficult to cobble together. I have to say, those who point out that I don’t understand this stock very well, are probably right. It is beginning to resemble an oil and gas royalty trust, in that it slowly depletes its assets - in Halozyme’s case the licensing deals and the intellectual property. The fundamental difference is that royalty trusts pay distributions as the assets are depleted, whereas Halozyme does not, except to insiders. The money goes out about as fast as it comes in, but not to shareholders. We like to talk about the inflow, but stay quiet about the outflow.
Halozyme is being repackaged. Well overdue after the clever ATRS acquisition for cash, following which the stock soared as we all know. Large Volume Auto Injector! Just what the Doctor ordered… Even with repackaging, I do wonder if it is pretty much the same booby-prize inside. Or perhaps this little beauty is being groomed for some shareholder-reprieving event. One can dream…
Look, the market is weak, no matter how much encouraging word is put out about the economy. Inflation is persistent, which is hardly surprising in view of crazy spending in order to buy the election. The no new taxes for under $400 thousand earners is likewise rubbish, as inflation is a hidden tax impacting all, low earners especially. Bidenamics is not a good thing. I am not saying that Trump is a good thing in other ways. Having said all that, what one shareholder thinks Halozyme stock “should” do is immaterial. The stock does what it does regardless of the “should”s. Institutions holding most of the stock are not idiots, if it were so cheap and should go up, they would buy and it would go up. There is more to this story, way more, that this message board doesn’t know or doesn’t say. Management more than likely knows the rest of the story, but doesn’t say. It doesn’t serve them to say. This stock is out in the wilderness, only a fool buys it blindly. Not enough fools, surprisingly, at least not Halozyme wanting fools.
Probably not verbatim: “I want you to get out of your chairs, open the window and holler, I’m as mad as hell… and I’m not gonna take this any more!!! “
That precisely what I did when I sold half my position at below $40 instead of the 45 I was aiming for. (Dumb luck, it worked out.)
JPM/Jamie Dimon not very positive on this market. So far, Jamie has been more correct than not. As far as Halozyme goes, we cannot say the same for the analysts. But then, they are just a cog in the marketing machine. Thank Heaven, it has been a pretty good annual source of moolah for some management figures, that is for certain.
All together, now: Long Distance, get me heaven. Oh, Operator, Information; Get me Helen on the line… Operator, Information… I’d like to speak to a friend of mine..
Silence of the lambs… such is the the board. Strange to see a stock turn belly up in the face of so much earlier pumping. Assorted analysts and stock market prognosticators forever pumping; various biotechwhomevers pumping vigorously (when not busy chastising the CEO and IR person for undermining the Stock of Great Promise based on ratio analysis and other wonderful tools) “Gloom and Doom” heathen working to put in their word which is a sure-fire indicator we have been informed. All systems go. But, just look… Like the red tide sweeping into Florida waters: fish belly up. Bad time to go fishing.
Hmmmm… Come on “doom and gloom” brothers, a little more vigorous efforts, if you please. More gloom, Scotty, this thing needs help to achieve warp gains. We have pumpers on the starboard bow, life, yes…, but not as we know it, jinxing the good ship Halozyme. Oh, I almost forgot about the market tanking. Does THAT make any difference? Why? Are we in unfriendly territory, neutralizing the salutary doom and gloom efforts?
Oh, go take a hike! Do you really believe I am going to scour the board for my old posts just to obey your frivolous quibbles? Do you realize how goofy you sound?I tell you this much, since I looked, the shares I bought below 34 I bought on 06/06/23. The ones I sold just below 40 I bought earlier, around the same price or less. Don’t worry, I have already settled with the IRS. If that isn’t enough for you, too bad.
OK, I looked. On 06/07/23 I posted:
“After posting my reservations about this company, many of which remain, I think it is only proper to note that yesterday I picked up some shares. I didn’t bet the farm, I don‘t do that any more on any stock, but did pick up a few thousand shares. I hope that the downside is limited, but I don’t know what my upside hopes are as the company has been utterly mute. Definitely not “to the Moon, Alice”. I expect to take half off the table in the mid 40’s, as things now appear.”
Now, take a hike!
Since I mentioned prices, I went to my brokerage account to check. Of the shares I now own I bought 20% below 34; 40% below 35; and 40% below 38. Not proud of that last 40%. I sold half just below 40 (did not hold to 45 as I first planned to). Those share I bought earlier than the ones I now own, so I probably averaged below 34 for them. “Yeah, right.” Not that it makes much difference, my position in Halozyme is small compared to the old days. With what I have, I am just waiting to go long term. What I sold was short term, unfortunately, but I had had enough.
I see that even the thought of my having bought Halo in the low 30’s upsets you. Tell you what: don’t worry about it, not good for your health. Be happy instead about what you call my “doom and gloom”, which in your mind will be of great benefit to you. Thank me. You used to thank those who were not sufficiently gung-ho, and informed them that you are going to use your inexhaustible funds to buy the shares they would sell. Notice also I am not quoting you, don’t go postal about words I use without attributing them to you. Bad for your health, like I said. It is my impression that when others express doubts, they are “doom and gloom” people. When you indict management it is completely warranted, constructive and an inducement for management to do better. Halozyme’s price is not where I thought it would be by now. My hopes for the stock have changed. Call that whatever you want, it changes nothing. Where I buy and sell the few share that I do, does not make you better or worse off. If you think I am lying, gloat with a contented grin and maintain a superior silence. Like I said, Happy Easter.
Hehe. In my gloom and doom I bought at the amazing low 30’s and I so posted at the time. I intended to sell half at around 45. That was not to be, I sold half around 40. I also posted that at the time. I still have half, but my confidence is waning due to my doom and gloom which virtually guarantees a bright new day, by your theorem. By the way, how is that surge to triple digits within a matter of months you forecast more than a year ago coming along? You recently noted that we have a positive DeBarre indicator. Have you made peace in your own mind with the CEO? The IR person, too? I still have some shares and am anxious to benefit. Happy Easter.
PS. I am still absorbing the secrets of how not the make money, which you revealed to me.
It would surprise me if Halozyme management did not leave any room for positive surprises. In that, too, I don’t think I am alone or possess some unique grasp of things.
In general, some vague malaise has got hold of this stock, some foreboding… It is as if Halozyme’s time on top of the hill has come and gone, new know-how and fading patent exclusivity is bringing in new and competent entrants. This is certainly obvious with injectors, (with which Halozyme shot itself in the foot, IMO) but also appears with the emergence of other, alternate modes of subcutaneous delivery. I fear the market doubt is systemic. The argument that new technology is early in its development cycle does not seem successful. There may be some doubt about Halozyme‘s continuing in-house research prowess, or ability to substitute it with acquisition.
I think that, with almost all shares in professional hands, no possible assumptions go ignored and that the price reflects that. This can be taken for certain after the management presentation on intellectual property durability. This is disquieting. I doubt that elementary analysis based on multiples, etc., is ignored by institutions. There is no scarcity of unfulfilled enthusiastic published research, either. I only hold what I do because it is short term. Probably not the best of reasons. The market seems expensive to me.
Oh, thank you very much for showing me how wealth is not created. I always yearn for such highly regarded pointers on that. Expert is as expert does.
It is not for me to reply to your question, it wasn’t addressed to me. Besides, I have no idea of what LaBarre is doing with his 10b-5. I can categorically say that a discussion is not easy. Reading the board, one comes away with the impression that for some unknown reason Halozyme management is intent on subverting the company’s stock, doing all they can, in defiance of its amazing promise, to knock any and all support from under it. They do not respond to belligerent interrogatives, corporate communications has taken upon itself to destroy the place of its employment, as they successfully did with the stellar company Antares. We probably need a resident shrink on the message board to attempt to deal with the persecution complex that rules. After reading the posts, one has to ask oneself, why on earth would I invest money in this thing? Good question, in any case… If management is so evil, why own the stock? Why, indeed…
The proverbial straw. Enough wrangling about injectors, amazing exclusive know-how’s, goofy analyst price targets. I am taking the proven LaBarre route to tranquillity. Out. Sold half, even though I am nowhere my $45 goal. 6+% yield, possible similar cap. gain, auto-injector free existence (either large or small volume) here I come. Tranquillity Base here.
Lordy, I am a doofus, too. And… it is large volume! Can it be? Them too? Oh, the exasperation!
SHL Group, I believe.
ABOS is not for the lily livered investor, nor is sabirnetug in phase 1 for the timid scientist or the cowardly experimental patient. Back in the day, I had bought some shares of CVAC that claimed a kick-butt anti Covid molecule. The idea was to buy a Maserati if the thing panned out. Pan out it did not. I took the hint, the Big Guy (bigger even than Joe) did not want me tooling around in a Maserati. Just lookin’ out for my survival. Now, in the same what-the-hell spirit, I may spring for 1000 shares of ABOS. No longer interested in a Maserati. I’ll take a Bentley. Or, more likely, but still a long shot, a Honda Civic Hatchback. Still thinking…
My word salad and pitiful attempts at humor amount simply to this, in plain language:
The attempts to make Tram Bui (hope I got that right) responsible for the dismal performance of ATRS, with its many problems and challenges, and later the bum performance of HALO stock is a pretty sorry display. I don’t know whether she is potentially a good or bad communicator. I do know that someone hired her for the job and must approve of her performance or find someone better at it. As it was noted earlier, there is a Board of Directors, elected by the shareholders, there is a CEO, reporting to the BOD, and then, somewhere down in the chain of command there is Tram Bui. The attempt to make a Tram Bui the culprit behind lame outcomes is not only unfair, it is downright, well, not smart. This is SO basic.
A thousand pardons… Carelessly, or with faulty recall, I have mixed up my melodies. The Unchained one, Unchained Command, goes: Oh my Investor Relations Person, my Fall Person, I hungered for your news release a long, lonely time. And time goes by so slowly, and I could do so much better, are you still kicking? I need your news, I need your news, Godspeed your news release to me.
Somebody MUST be responsible! Whoa! I see! It is the buck sergeant losing the battle for us. Good thing that she - in the present case - doesn’t report to anybody, nor is anyone in charge of supervising her. That rank is known as Executive Buck Sergeant, EBS, in modern lingo. Or is it Fall Guy… ehemmm… Fall Person, in modern lingo? Unchain of Command in business school lingo. Unchained Command… very catchy. “Be my Investor Relations Person… etc.”
Yes, thanks, I got that. But, how many hundreds of millions of $ are Halozyme’s testosterone products Xyosted and Tlandro selling according to your information? I searched but did not find out. What sales multiple, or if you know their contribution margin, profit multiple did you apply? I am also not familiar with Frank Thomas, and a search produces a lot of them. Just trying to nail down this $1billion for the testosterone business. Thanks.
Those would be the injectable Xyosted and Tlandro, which is taken orally. What are the sales of these testosterone therapy products, and what multiple did you apply to those sales to come up with a $1 billion plus value for Halozyme’s current niche in this market? Do you believe that the “low T” mania is likely to expand?
But, let me try to answer my own question. About the price. Some answers have been advanced, I don’t think that there is one single answer. I continue to believe that the convertible debt is a big reason for the price struggles. It is true that the interest rate is low, that is obviously not the problem. The problem is the conversion feature and the impending issuance of stock to retire the obligation either to redeem the debt with stock, as was done partially earlier, or to raise cash to repay the debt. I think this is a major factor motivating the stock buy-backs. The convertible debt is and has been an albatross. The ATRS acquisition is not fortunate for the Halozyme shareholder, IMO. The interest earned on the cash which was used for the acquisition would have been better, I am quite sure.
No, I didn’t, that is a fact. The reason I did not is that 1. I don’t know the answer; and 2. the questions were not posed to me. I guess my point was that nobody answered any of those questions. Those are things we do not talk about. Those are things we do not worry about. All is well. Except with the stock price. But, let’s talk about something else…
This is a very unusual and funny conversation. It is as if the questions brought up, not for the first time, about Enhanze bombing with major pharma companies not four or ten years from now but this very hour were never posted and didn’t exist. The point is, falling back on nearly two decades of experience immunizes one from the present moment. Works better than COVID shots. That the last time convertible debt was converted Halozyme investors took a massive haircut in terms of dilution, in spite of buy-backs as the conversion price was below the buy-back average, is hush-hush. The interest rate was low. When it comes to stock price, classical economics are suspended for buy-backs. And, still, manipulation is exercised exclusively to depress stock prices, never to boost them. How is discussion possible? I don‘t even know where Dr. Torley was working 17 years ago. Certainly not at Halozyme.
I am quite sure none of us is against Halozyme’s signing many deals. May they do so! As to how a start-up may be successful, I would say that one way may be with superior science. I doubt that Halozyme has possession of the ultimate and perfect science with their Enhanze know-how. How long any poster here has owned Halozyme stock is completely inconsequential and besides the point. I certainly would not disagree that the stock is manipulated, but why would it always be manipulated downwards? And could the level of indebtedness have some weight in assessing the company? I have the suspicion that it does. As for the ATRS related suspicion that it will be sold for $1 billion, I will just skip that - and not because I think it likely. It is certainly a fact that Halozyme is generating cash. It would be nice to see them investing it in future science. With buy-backs they are getting shares with less cash behind them - obviously. Would you agree that buy-backs may also be a form of price manipulation? Particularly when so many shares are in institutional hands? Or is supply and demand suspended in this case?
Excellent! This means that no one needs to get paranoid about what they see as a “negative” post. Obviously, those people accusing others of posting in such manner perceived by them, have abandoned reality. Message board posters in their right mind don’t express their views in order to manipulate a stock which is about 98% owned by institutions. Institutions don’t care a whit about their opinion. All this is good for mental health.
I don’t want to make accusations by innuendo, but I have stated earlier the obvious fact that anyone aware of the impending cash purchase of a company circling the drain paying a significant premium could make out like a bandit. With options, even more so. ATRS was just such a company, master of technologies readily available from a number of sources, as we saw a few posts earlier. Ever since the ATRS acquisition, the legs have been knocked out from under Halozyme, promising expressions of interest and enthusiastic mood notwithstanding. Another thing the stock withstands with hardly a flinch are JMP’s breathless upgrades.
I wish there were more discussion of the new type of Enhanze formulation which does not require refrigeration. The subject was kind of blown off with “the therapeutic molecule needs refrigeration anyway”. It well might, but some R&D into the field which pays the bills sounded interesting. Other than the cursed high volume auto injector, there is much silence about Halozyme R&D. Silence about the licensees, too, because of agreements.
Good eye! They certainly do look the same. What is more, the ARGX injector looks nothing like it.
Oh, THANK you for the clarification. I didn’t know that. They have done so much good that you want to fire “Helen”. Hahaha. The stock has been booming!
No. It was the “we are very excited about this” and “very excited about that” without anything concrete. Nice to know the high level of excitement that rules, but specifics might also be helpful. It is the lack of those which prevents the stock from languishing in the mid 40’s rather than here. I heard no prospect of ANY change in the business plan. “Returning money to shareholders” through buy-backs, etc. And why not? Those policies have produces such excellent results. Actually, the buy backs are not strictly aligned with shareholder interest. The stock is highly subjected to… let’s call it price grooming. The buybacks benefit from low prices and shareholders would like to see high prices. That is an excellent reason for the CEO to encourage a “long term” point of view. In the long term, everything merges with the night - as Brian Eno has sang.
I am sorry, I don’t know and don’t even want to guess. I think that the needles, which seem to be the most refined technology for subcutaneous auto injectors, come from Becton Dickinson. But, I am not even certain of that. There is also a possible Korean source, I seem to recall.
This was quite long ago, when I had a position in ATRS, so my memory may be inaccurate. As I recall Novo Nordisk made some type of a deal with ATRS to obtain manufacturing rights to auto injectors. This was back when ATRS still had patent protection. The purpose of the deal was insulin, I believe, but Novo Nordisk has a broad range of injectables since then. The point is, they had proprietary domain in auto injectors and I imagine they moved the state of art forward to suit their own needs. I can imagine that they possibly subcontracted the manufacturing. As I said, I haven’t followed the matter since years ago. I believe auto injectors are or are about to become a commodity item, probably cheaper to source in the far East than to manufacture in house. Economies of scale.
Whatever the mysteries of units of measure, another conundrum also presents itself. It shows when examining the charts. Whoa one sees is a bunch of small trades and then suddenly, most often at the end of trading, a large transaction. I am certainly no expert at this, but when I had seen similar it indicated that small trades were accumulated and then they were cleared to a large buyer. Do not go by my guesses, they could wind up costing you money. But, what I think I am seeing is just another most peculiar phenomenon, added to the stubborn trading range.
Not sure about these measures and where they apply. I assume that where mg is written, milliliters are meant. As to the upper limit of volume, you must mean 20, not 2, milliliters. I have not checked if that upper limit is correct, so no comments on it. As for Xeris, there, yes, probably the milligrams apply, if I got the idea behind their technology straight. Kind of like freeze drying coffee, though much fancier, I am sure. Strikes me as a pretty cool idea, and yes - disclosure - I do not own any Xeris stock. I have no plans either to own any. Anyway, just an amateurish attempt of mine to untangle the volume vs. weight mystery. The question remains as to whether the clever Enhanze technology is necessary to employ the Xeri-ject concentration, subcutaneous solution, the main advantage of which appears to be the significant reduction of volume and easier storage and handling.
Correction: the date of 2023 result reveal is 02/20/24. Feb. 20, 2024. Following the close of trading. Even perfectionists make an occasional small error. We see quite a bit of that lately in the news.
Since the January presentation to clarify the durability of Halozyme’s business we have not been treated to any news capable of propelling the stock out of its funk. A couple of positive announcements have fallen on deaf ears. Any attempt at pumping seems stillborn. $33-35 it is, despite pretty good volume to begin with, which is now starting to diminish. So, I read from Tram Bui’s missive that we can look forward to Halozyme’s Fourth Quarter and Full 2023 results on 02/02/24. That should be interesting since the company is sinking into ever deeper silence. I suppose that the occasion will force out some revelation as to what is going on. Investor, prepare yourself! I recommend a Drambuie before the blessed event.