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Into the 2nd quarter...
and some of my favs are acting well today, i.e. NYX.
SMSI is going higher, and ICE caught some people off-guard as it started a while ago this am.
Under $10, which I normally don't do, but bought some STEC last week, and watching this BRCD. I sold my LVLT awhile ago and will be adding to that again, just not now.
Want some diversification - look at this CELG start.
Restaurants - CMG is still for me and I'm still holding.
Chips - watch the latest leaders - waiting to buy back SIMO, etc.
GPS - I still like the favorite plays.
And solar - SPWR as it breaks out above $48. Don't forget WFR.
Still waiting on this SPR and others.
Lots more, before the summer slowdown season.
GL & GT.
Jefferson Krull...
my new favorite market personality / entertainer / commentator / ex-stock broker.
This market is tough...
but still doing a little buying - slowly.
This RIG looks like it wants to follow this ATW here. I think I have to add here. Watching that GSF too.
Bought a little DE for a trade because of the setup and a little more defensive with this market the way it is.
Added a little NYX on this dip and put in more bids in case it goes down a little more.
This CMG looks like a good setup too, watching it close.
gotta go - watching some others, GL.
Since this is the NYSE Euronext board...
I think it's appropriate to post this link here for Suck My Nasdaq:
If you missed that gap up BO the other day...
like I did, it looks like today is a chance to get in or buy some more.
This market is kinda squirrely, however, and we may not have the Fed on our side just quite yet, but I'm still thinking about putting in two small bids right now and see if I get some if it comes in a little more.
GL & GT.
Thanks Mrmoney...
That is some hillarious stuff on Jefferson's videos.
Keep up the good work Aire, Cash, Jerry, and all.
The first week's winner...
was Nancy Beaumont w/ a 65% gain - in small stocks.
I was looking earlier on the leaderboard and the leader with the highest cumulative gains/account value is at $2,216,000 right now. Not bad, given all of the rules. Not bad at all. The overall leader - Deborah Taft.
You know guys, and girls, a serious question. These two girls are really doing great. I also know of a couple of really good female traders. They are good because they are so methodical with their rules, setups, targets, and picks, so, well, unemotional. Go back also to what Cramer wrote in Addict about his wife on the trading desk.
So that's my question. Aren't women supposed to be the emotional ones and us guys not? Why does this sometimes appear to be flipped and not apply to trading in many cases?
Anybody sign up for...
the Multi-million Dollar Challenge? How are you doing?
I signed up a couple days late, and always forget about it until the close (I watch Bloomberg mostly so I don't get those CNBC reminders throughout the day). But, bought some stocks today.
I heard one girl had like a 60%+ gain in the first week - did I hear that correct?
Do they post the leader's cumulative gains?
I like that volume today...
finally picking up and confirming last Wednesday's jump up. Would really like to see the weekly volume pick up on an up week (like hopefully this week!), so we start getting some stronger up weeks versus down.
This market is resilient. What I mentioned last week about things looking better than last summer - here's a couple: look at the SOX - it just barely dipped below it's 50 after the 2/27 selloff. Last May it just kept plunging - actually led the way.
Look at the transports hold up, and I like what a couple of the truckers are doing even with the driver shortage. And the other indices - the NY composite, the S&P midcap, the Russell, the IBD 100, and also the Nasdaq's percentage move last week. Volume was light, but, it was far lighter last August as the market powered on.
I'm not getting highly leveraged like last fall (yet), but, have already put most of my cash back to work.
Protecting that cash is always rule #1, however regretful it is to look back later and think "I wish I would've left those lower bids in (like under $82 in NYX)".
GL & GT.
Good move today...
did some buying back of shares after selling all of them a couple of weeks ago on that ride up to 18. Will buy some more tomorrow if it runs above 18.27 on continuing volume.
Looks like it's going higher; have to just watch this market.
GL & GT.
The markets regain some footing...
but are not "all clear" yet. I hope you used the correction time to hunt for some new leaders. Also, keep following the Big Picture in IBD.
I've been slowly buying a few of the names mentioned in the referenced post. Picked up some RIG, MER, and a couple of others yesterday - for trades.
Waiting on this SPR to tag 32.10 on some volume and I'll be loading up on that. Waiting on a couple of others that are getting ready to go. Again though, still following the markets, to see if this holds or rolls over for one more leg down.
Some others I'll continue to hold - like NYX, WFR, etc.
This NUAN starting moving again yesterday, and now that it is trading over $15, shows up on IBD's Stocks on the Move today, generating more buying. Watch for similar up and comers around this level
Most of the solar plays still moving. I'm watching all of these and will pick out the leader amongst all of those and out of the several pilot positions I now have.
Note, we had some follow-throughs fail during last summer's correction, so caution is still warranted. However, there are differences in the indices' charts and action that make me want to get a little more exposed right now on the long side. Slowly however, and with an itchy trigger finger.
The rate cut draws nearer.
GL & GT.
That little Green and red box
just cracks me up, with Bootz on each end. Did you get a response after that new "obnoxious" twist.
Good release while biding time in this market.
LOL!
Thanks Metro!
I like your message...
...well, yes, the part about the 7% day. But, really about your signature. I always liked that you put the logos of your holdings, but, now it's funny.
You'll have to provide us a link to who thinks this is obnoxious. And hopefully the even better one of what he thinks now??? )
GL!
Yes...
I've been watching it.
That's usually a good tendency that you mentioned. Wait for proper low-risk buy points, and if they don't perform, cut 'em loose. If they perform well, then properly pyramid more into them. All according to your rules.
APKT is still broken for now. Personally, I'm not much of a bottom fisher especially on newer issues, but, I'll keep it on my radar.
Regarding NYX, I'm still holding a little. Originally I was planning on putting in some bids below $82. But, after the technical damage done in the markets and most stocks last week all those plans are put on hold. Depending on the overall market, it may test lower levels down into the 70's. Depending on the market when and if that happens, I may put a little cash to use there. But, first will likely wait awhile for the market to at least confirm a new rally before doing much buying.
I also think we have entered a new phase of increasing volatility, which is good. But, it's a lot more risky to be in this market right now because of that, until it gets through this wash out and begins upward again. Any upward moves will be larger too with this increased volatility, but I'm still just being cautious for now, until the market confirms a new uptrend. If you've got good rules, the market won't leave you behind.
Odds are increasing for a rate cut. So, it seems to be a good time to be reviewing some past losers (and corresponding broken rules), digging for new gems, studying, and watching the markets. And refining those rules even more.
GL!
This site has been acting really poor today. See you guys later.
Yes, SuperBee, we've had some...
previous posts regarding Cramer's calls for this one.
Regarding the hybrid system, one thing I'm noticing today is I'm seeing less problems on the screens with different quotes and prints of some NYSE stocks. Actually not too many problems at all today. There have been bad lags in data the last several days at certain periods and prints all over the place (while at other times things go back to operating ok). But, I've not done much trading on NYSE names while things were not staying stable.
Thain and others have commented on adding capacity this week (and lots of work this weekend). Steve Porpora (from William O'Neil & Co) was also interviewed on the floor a little while ago on Bloomberg.
Regardless of how the system is operating, there continues to be a lot of trading going on. You've gotta like these volume increases if you are in this one. It's likely going to stay like this awhile with the increased volatility.
GL.
It was quite a day...
yesterday, hope you guys made it through ok.
Plenty of commentary out there, don't need to add to it. One positive for this issue is that the increased volatility in the weeks and probably now months to come will mean increased fees. But, I'm not doing any buying, not just yet. Let's also see if any more info comes out regarding the problems around 3 pm yesterday and the performance of the hybrid system.
As previously penned, it's a bull market until it's not. Well, the trendlines are broken, so caution and lots of cash are warranted for now. I still think the bull run can continue later, but, we have to get through this correction, fallout, and rotation first.
Interesting Fed speak this am. I like Bernanke, and will continue to await for signs of him to slightly adjust in the future - they are watching close. I still anticipate a nominal cut later in the year at some point; let's see how it plays out.
GL & GT.
Regarding your question,
it's possible, it really depends what the markets do here. The buyout news this morning however (TXU and Dow rumors), just leads me to continue to think that in general, the stock market is still undervalued (historically) and this economy is better than many people believe and you have lots of money out there looking for different ways to invest & profit. Given that, I'll probably continue to buy different stocks and setups that I like and that are set to move higher. I'm buying very judiciously and watching the leading stocks as well as different indices.
Again, though, the only recommendations I usually refer to are reading some good books and/or other information sources. If you have limited funds for the market, than there are especially good rules outlined by Bill O'Neil, Cramer, etc. on the number of positions to hold (and diversication, etc.) which can help you maximize returns.
GL!
Pennyland, I'd recommend...
listening to the NMX and then the ICE conference calls, since these two are competitors. There is a lot of info on both, not to mention the CME call.
There is really a lot happening in this space especially with the electronic trading platforms and deals, like Optionable, and other partnerships like with CME, etc.
And then if you want to compare to NYX, take a look at the leader or who you like between those first two and then NYX. NYSE Group is doing a lot of great things right now and also going in a good direction. I'd recommend listening to the NYX call too.
But, right now, the leader of all of these in terms of recent stock price strength is still ICE. I did pick up some at 145 after the recent pullback, but it's riskier here after the recent run.
And, separately, ISE was also upgraded today.
GL & GT.
Nice Close <eom>
Regarding these rail mergers...
from Cramer's hypothesis and my comments. These transcontinental mergers I outlined have been anticipated for years so not much new here. But, maybe the numbers start to make more sense here, and the background political climate Cramer mentioned is an interesting thought.
However, maybe more probable of something happening right now in this transportation sector, would be some of these railroad companies merging with some of the different trucking companies, especially with fuel costs being what they are and probably at the lower range of where they will stay.
Haven't looked at any numbers lately of different truckers or areas served, but, that could be worth a look into.
GL & GT.
One other comment...
on the show tonight.
Cramer had on Monty Moran from Chipotle Mexican Grill - good interview. And why I like this chain and stock.
And by coincidence, we had Chipotle for dinner tonight.
A lot of leaders breaking out and/or going higher.
GL & GT tomorrow.
Good comments tonight on...
Cramer's Mad Money, during the lightning round.
When asked about NYX, he said, "Indeed, my stock of the year. Indeed when that merger is done, the Euronext deal, the numbers will go up. Of the 14 analysts who follow this, only one is recommending it. NYX is my stock of the year. And I am proud to say that I backed up the truck when it went into the 80's. Did you? Stick with NYX and Stick with Cramer!"
I added a lot, I hope you guys had the opportunity to do the same and/or are holding.
GL.
Regarding Cramer's Mad Money..
show tonight, and his monopolistic mergers segment and his number one pick regarding the railroads.
Yea, this would create stronger monopolistic pricing power creating a western RR and an eastern-part-of-the-country RR, but, both new systems would be more or less a heavily dual-duplicated line, including many major switching yards, etc. Maybe, then a new combined giant sells off some of those duplicated assets.
However, and I'm not sure why Cramer didn't do it different, a more likely scenario in this case (and actually better mergers) would be Burlington Northern going after Norfolk Southern and then Union Pacific going after CSX.
Why these combos instead? Because these two different mega-mergers would create two separate inter-continental Class I railroads. Combined with their different infrastructure including intermodal yards stretching from coast to coast, this is where you get true cost savings along with some growing monopolistic pricing power into certain markets.
How? Because a transcontinental railroad can offer much faster and more efficient transportation all the way across the United States to customers from either coast and/or the mid-west. Especially for intermodal containers from coastal ports as well as certain types of bulk commodities. And with two cross-country mega-carriers you still get the added benefit of creating an illusion of a competitive landscape with two major players (even though they do serve some different markets). This scenario also helps many other transportation companies that currently ship on their preferred/partnered different lines, companies like UPS, JB Hunt, Roadway, Schneider, many international shipping companies (Sea-Land, APL, etc), etc. Some of these existing partnerships wouldn't get near the benefit from a UP/BNSF merger like Cramer mentioned - so I'd say it's just not going to happen that way.
Plus, one interesting sidebar, do you know where much of this country's optical cable is laid, networks like Level Three's? In these companies right-of-way. Hmmmm.
I like UNP & CSX.
You want to really make things interesting and get trade going more seamlessly, what about the two Canadian Class I railroads, and Kansas City Southern (going to Mexico)?
GL & GT.
There goes Apple...
there goes GOOG, there goes ICE, and some other leaders I'm watching.
Yesterday's market action was better than it looked on the surface at first. Volume was not as high as you would like, but, it increased on the Nasdaq from the day before, and the Nas also led the indices out of the red in the morning and the rest of the day.
Yesterday: Nas +0.7% S&P +0.3% DJIA +0.1%
And the IBD 100 +1.5% (these are some of the real leaders)
The leaders are acting well here. And the markets are opening weak and closing strong - also what you would like to see.
The markets are still red this morning, but, here goes NYX; and CMCSA looks to be starting too.
GL.
Great show last night...
Cramer's Mad Money was. I hope some of you got to see it. Well worth your time with the different general trading regimens he talked about last night, as well as interpreting his recommendations, reviewing his background and experience, and more importantly - honestly explaining his past and current motivation for managing his old fund and now doing the show. It wasn't his regularly formatted show.
He's doing good work and laying it all out there.
Regarding others who say he is not, I'd look closer at the people who are critical; they probably are not doing as well in this market or in the past.
GL & GT.
The market goes higher...
here, led by the Nasdaq this morning. The NYSE composite continues to perform. The small-caps continue to outperform. The mid-caps continue to do great.
Anybody reading, here are some stocks I like right now - for different fundamental and/or technical reasons (heavy on some Nasdaq issues). I'm in some, stalking and waiting on some others, and trading a few that I know well. Do your DD, this is not a buy list, just a PARTIAL list of names I'm watching and/or interested in this morning for a host of different reasons, including some stocks I've mentioned before.
AAPL AKAM APKT ATHR BRCM CMCSA CMG CROX CSCO FFIV FMCN GS GOOG GRMN HPQ ICE INFY ISE LQDT LVLT MER MSFT NUAN NYX PRFT RIG RIMM SI SIMO SIRF SPR SPWR STP T TRID TRMB VSAT VOCS VSNT WFR
There are host of others around the transportation, commercial/heavy construction, aerospace/defense, and other sectors I also like - I'll try to add some later at another time.
It's a bull market, until otherwise. Watch the leaders' action to make sure it confirms here, volume is still a little light in some stocks/areas.
GL & GT.
This may not at first...
be viewed as encouragement, but, I'll be putting in some more bids in the lower 80's if it ever goes there. I'm sure a lot of other traders will too.
Just remember, frustration is part of the development curve, so work on those rules - they will help you on days like this.
Watch the market and some of the real leaders here also for direction.
GL & GT.
Another good article on RealMoney...
by Cramer today, titled "Subprime May Give Fed Crisis Cover".
Rocommended reading.
Hopefully, you also got to listen a little to Bernanke speak yesterday or today.
GL & GT.
Have to listen to the call today...
But, it looks like a great quarter with possibly more to come.
GL & GT.
Also, option volume is up...
as reported here:
http://www.nysedata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=3000&categor...
From that article: “In only four months since the completed rollout on Oct. 10, 2006 we have experienced a dramatic increase in our electronic trading business”, said NYSE Arca Vice President of Derivative Products, Jon Werts. “Customers are attracted to the speed, reliability and functionality that our new system offers. We are continuing to add new market makers and order flow providers to our platform providing investors with access to a truly robust options trading platform.”
GL today.
I took a closer look...
at the data, to see what was happening recently. And I see a different story.
I've talked before about misleading news headlines, because this is sometimes the case, as editors try to grab eyeballs often by means of negativity or fear. And often, the overall real data presents a totally different scenario and sometimes even an opposite case than what the headline reads.
Case in point: http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070213:MTFH61836_2...
*********
Headline: "NYSE share of listed trading slips in January"
Tue Feb 13, 2007 5:00pm ET
NEW YORK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - NYSE Group (NYX.N: Quote, Profile , Research) said on Tuesday it executed 66.1 percent of the trade in NYSE-listed stocks in January, the lowest figure it has ever reported.
*********
The article went on to state that the "January figure" was the lowest since NYSE started reporting combined market share data, and that the share, was down from 75.4 percent in January 2006 and down from December's 67.3 percent.
Well, if you go to the NYSE website and just look at the free data (you can get more data by subscribing for $300/mo or $3000/mo - more fees for them), then you can start to interpret this article differently and hopefully better.
From nyse.com, here's data for the first week of Jan 07 (since IHub won't preserve any format from the tables, the four columns are: date, NYSE Group shares, NYSE Group Trades, NYSE Group dollar volume). Again, this is for Jan 07
1/3/2007 2,508,817,441 6,316,041 $98,142,617,933
1/4/2007 2,145,990,044 5,856,519 $83,242,505,575
1/5/2007 2,107,309,545 5,752,279 $79,573,848,682
And here's for the first week of Jan 06
1/3/2006 2,099,303,937 3,279,447 $77,837,979,561
1/4/2006 1,999,541,274 3,071,373 $72,160,181,531
1/5/2006 1,932,008,288 2,914,285 $69,487,510,424
1/6/2006 1,903,139,568 2,739,057 $67,356,995,825
The key figures above are apparent. Overall NYSE Group share volume is up, overall NYSE Group trade volume is way up - about double, and dollar volume is up too, year over year.
So, here's what I take from it.
First, the Reuters headline is actually about the percentage share of total volume, not total share volume. You'll have to do some math, but, by my quick calcs, the Reuters percentage figures times the average increased overall volumes still shows increased NYSE executed volume. That's OK.
The NYSE data also shows that actual trade volume is way up, almost double, and that means many smaller-sized retail-type trades are being executed. That's good!
If you go back further and look at older year's data, the current overall volume continues to increase. And again, if you do the math between the article percentages and the NYSE data, the slightly lower percentages on increased overall volumes, still results in increased fees.
I'll only get concerned if the block trade volumes start to dramatically fall off later this year - which could mean more institutions going to dark pools off the exchange. However, less growth and perhaps some fall-off in block trades can be expected as more algorithmic trading in smaller size is done by computers (also increasing the trade volumes mentioned above).
The new system is now working pretty good, my NYSE trades are being executed more quickly than ever before, and with less slippage. Bottom line, I'll come back more often now and do more trades. And I think other people will too.
Cramer also wrote a good article...
on NYX this morning on RealMoney. I believe most of his articles eventually make it on thestreet.com site later. But, I'd still recommend the premium content site.
The LSE and NYSE are two of the world's oldest and largest exchanges - they belong together if/when a 24-hr world exchange is coming.
The stock yesterday also backfilled the breakaway-gap left on Friday 11/10/06. You often don't see that with the volume increase like what happened on that gap back in November.
Cramer wrote this morning in his piece, "NYX in the $80's is a gift".
GL & GT.
I'm drinking heavily...
on the orange juice this morning, got a little cough going.
But, regarding the NYX downgrade by GS and removed from their America's Buy List and outlined points: hybrid execution concerns, increase competition from other exchanges/ecn's/Nasdaq, lock-up expiration, Euronext issues, etc.
Briefly, they are still positive long-term on it, so you should re-affirm what your trading plan was based on - swing trade, long-term trade, or core position and act accordingly and to your other sell rules. That's why rules are good - you act automatically and there is no emotion.
I bought some more today because I think the hybrid problems were possibly the most notable during the Phase III rollout (see the hybrid blog archives on NYSE site for some background info). You have continued cost reductions in staff (they are closing one of their auxillary floors today as well as big reductions in staff in specialist firms, i.e. LaBranche, etc.).
Yea, you have increased electronic competition like Bats, etc. but, you also have other greater issues like dark pools and other algorithmic black box new networks, so I believe the way NYSE is going forward is the best route to continue to be relevant in this ever-changing landscape.
The lockup, everybody already was aware of it; Euronext issues, will be positive long-term.
Do your DD, there are really no new issues here that most people were already not aware of. And watch this market for general direction - that's what I'm watching closely now.
GL.
I like that...
APKT call, esp some comments about competition and specifically CSCO and JNPR. I'll try to write some more later.
This market is not showing it's hand yet, regarding the Nasdaq confirmation, however, the leaders are going yet again today. Buying more.
GL.
Just a follow-up...
regarding the comment on NYX and ICE. Just because ICE is stronger here, doesn't mean I'm buying it right now.
I had some stock and calls in ICE last fall and cashed out around the end of the year. Wanted back in during the new year, however, it took off on 1/3/07 and never looked back. Since it never came close to my first bid which was nearer to 100 and never came back to a proper (and safer) buy point closer to it's 50, I've watched it run another 40pts without me.
Just think it's still safer to wait for a better buy setup and not chase it even though it is a leader. Missing runs like that is tough, but, it usually pays to follow your rules, and have all things in your corner. You will always have risk, but, I like having higher odds in my favor. Anyway, still probably going to hold some NYX.
It's late, but, I'm going to try to listen to the entire APKT call tonight still - it acted well today, so I'd like to hear what they said. I also liked a lot of that BRCM call - and think 2008 and 09 is going to be really strong for them - however, going to have to spend a little more time (on both of these calls and some others), to get a better feel how 07 is going to be (for BRCM). Want to see esp. how their "enterprise networking" portion of sales/orders is growing, as well as mobile.
GL tomorrow.
Signs of the bull market...
continuing. This market is acting well here, as we wait further for a confirmation on the Nasdaq. Doing a little more buying, but, cautiously.
I also liked what I heard of that AKAM call and then it went on sale this morning. It is a later stage base so a little more caution is warranted, but, this one still looks like it has some room to run. Have to see how it and the market progress here and how we close today.
Still trying to get through all of the other calls.
GL & GT.
I don't like making predictions...
as it's just easier to watch the price and volume of stocks (and the market) and just go with the leaders (of the trend). One thing I would recommend again is to study those growth estimates (hint: Daily Graphs by IBD also gives some simple and useful data on estimates to quickly follow). This is another window (along with your other DD including conference calls) into determining and following leading companies and anticipating where possible inefficiencies might be in the market.
Re: NYX, it's under the 50sma and it dropped under it on volume - that's a warning. It's still a good stock with good fundamentals, with lots of new things happening. However, right now ICE is still the real exchange/group leader.
And besides stock, sector, and market action, watch other economic indicators and trends. Since the market is forward looking, just look for general trends and cycles. One issue that I think is going to be a market factor is what the Fed may do later this year. So, for example today, the poor financial news this morning from HSBC regarding the sub-prime market can viewed from another angle as another indicator about what the Fed might do later (maybe even sooner than later).
And I always just trust what I see as well - 'cause I'm always out looking. Again, re the HSBC news, I've been watching what's been happening in the real estate market and in this case for instance, I had some anecdotal evidence as well. We moved last fall, and the movers damaged my desk. So, I've been out looking for a good deal on a new set on Craigslist. Every nice executive set I went to see the past 6 weeks were at smaller sub-prime shops in Southern Cal finally closing up shop - and offering fire-sale prices on all their furniture (I just like a good deal on anything I buy). Practice what to constantly look for and trust what you see, and you can stay out ahead of the news headlines (and more importantly not be mislead by some of them) and at least be prepared for and anticipate general trends (and hopefully protect assets and/or make money).
GL & GT.
IBD's Big Picture...
I'd recommend reading this column everyday, but, especially in today's paper. It talks about leading stocks' stealth rally this morning.
This summarizes what I've been looking at the past couple of days, and it has reminded me of similar action seen last summer.
Watch the Nasdaq and the real leaders to see if it follows through. And heed the cautions and warning also touted in the same article in today's paper.
GL & GT.
CSCO's conference call was very important...
I had to listen to it a couple of times.
Lot's of info in there, especially in Q & A. I recommend it for anyone reading, esp if you are interested in APKT or all things network related.
I picked up some more shares of CSCO yesterday as well during the pullback. Now lets see what the guys from Burlington have to say.
RVBD's call is also tonight.
Again, we have some real market leaders - tech/Nasdaq - that acted well out of the gate, let's see if the bulls step up here, or if we continue to sell into it this am.