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Thanks.....I just thought maybe you were using some state of art proprietary quote service....)
Shorts covering on the tape ?......When you have time if you can explain.....how you know its shorts ?....tia
Hey thats pushing it....lol.
Lol...this pig won't roll over until every short has had his ass handed to him.
Last I heard Martha is holding all the shares inside her mattress and isn't allowing any out to be leased yet.....lol
SHorted MSO ?.....I could not find shares anywhere......R
Doug Kass on the infomercial channel.....one of the best hedge fund managers with anything useful to say....R
Which institution are you with if you don't mind me asking.....tia
Fair enough I realize what your saying but like Zeev I believe that the gold market can easily be manipulated we all heard the conspiracy theories but 4 million dollar trades for Nem are order of the day......with daily average volume of 4.4 million and todays volume of close to 7.60.....they have little significane in my books.....the only significance is that if the stock was trading at 41.60, and these are hypothetical statements....and now they wanted to cross the 4 million buck trade at a agreed to price of 41.20 etc.....the market makers would look at the bid ask and knock out the bids from 41.60 to 41.20...etc. to cross that block.....as a trader you know that the knock down was temporary. Now I know that people argue the bull bear angle of gold equities until they are blue in the face but I could not care less.....did the gold stocks do what they were supposed to do....yes...they have been oversold so a bounce is expected. You keep referencing macro fundamental pictures but to me they are meaningless because if we do have an economic tsunami type event that the Bears keep on talking about.....NEM is going to 10 bucks as a stock ... its a paper asset a nd will behave like everythingelse. Bull Bear arguments are futile...as Jesse said there is only one side of the market and thats the right side. Housing stocks oil stocks.....are chewing up and spitting out every bear out there..so as a trader...every trade has a set up you follow and eliminate your inherent bull or bear bias because the market has a way of teaching the best traders lessons everyday......one of the biggest hedge funds went out of business when the nasdaq was at 3800 on the way up in the bubble. So we can come here everyday and pound that gold is going to 1000....that we are in a housing bubble etc ...that oil is going to 100 etc....but at the end of it all i just need to know my entry and exit. Do i think gold is going back up to new highs...yes....but can it be crushed by the powers that be...u betcha.
Highlights over the last several years are snippets.....the day CNBC started talking on how retail investors can learn to sell short...that day marked t he july bottom in the nasdaq.....the day the dow jones bounced off 7200....bill gross was saying that he would not be surprised to see the Dow at 5000....and what i don't like about gold now is that when Buffet n Gates are short the dollar everybody is leaning one way.....the dollar is in a bear market and bear market rallies can surprise most people on how far they can go.......anyways thats my speel have a good night.
Just wondering what intrinsic value are those trades ?.....I have researched extensively into who was buying what or what house was buying etc for the longest time only to come to the conlusion that its meaningless unless we are talking insiders buys etc.Came to the conclusion that smart money was not so smart unless they were selling the smoke dreams to their high net worth clients....lol.
What i like about the Nem chart is the triple tops..dec2/03 50.28, jan5/04 50.20....dec 17 49.98.... I am of the school like ataj.....don't do triple tops....so it is a high probability event that it has a day with destiny to take out 50 once n for all.
NEM is underperforming other gold stocks.....not buying this bounce....R
Just curious at what point do you cut your losses ?.....Homebuilders are the new inets of the last bubble.....cutting my losses when bzh was at 149....some 17 points back does not look as dumb now....
k...thanks....eom
FA,
I always thought double/triple tops etc are in the same vicinity.....the copper triple bottom that you are describing... is it the 3 touches of the UT line 9125,131,133)....i tend to draw my lines along Elders principle.....i try to touch as many points as possible with a few outliers....a 100 lot crossing 3 points above or below closing has little weight in my books ?......thanks in advance
Lol.....hope you were not assuming I was one of them....I think one of the other fellows yesterday articulated well my thoughts.....anyone coming on here to denigrate and attack others for me is total waste of time and why i don't post much.....there are only a handful of real time traders on Ihub who make a living at this .....and this is serious business. Bottom line its all about real time verifiable PNL statements period....once again keep up the good work....stay grounded and be humble .....those are a traders keys to survival.
We both agree that the housing market in north america is a bubble and we are all familiar with consurmer debt etc and the long term consequence about when this house of cards collapses....but from a trading perspective what i learned is that i rarely use hard mechanical stops but more mental stops and usually do not leverage more than 3 times a position especially for swing trades....my TOL position reached 6 .... and i was averaging the short position up when i could. I learned that i will use hard mechanical stops on all my trades.....and if i were short TOL today the scenario that it could still do a slow steady burn to 100 and do a 2 for one split sounds crazy.....but nobody every said the market has to be rational....R....all the fund managers are sinking their money into the housing sector its been the sector to hide in for the last few years and until long term fixed rates rise appreciably...the game will continue....picking tops is dangerous.
With all due respect.....what you have noted about TOL Brothers I have heard ad nauseum from people shorting the stock from the 30s into the 40s and 50s... these stocks continue to defy gravity....numerous gaps to fill but the question remains when. All I am saying is keep a tight stop on the position......and if you have read Zeev's thread or AJ......triple tops or bottoms always get taken out to the the respective trend...I got caught not using a stop on one position and brought in fire power to get my self out...only to be buried. I even took my TOL short position closed it out and moved to BZH homes because it had a much weaker RSI relative to the overall market which was a good move....from a trading perspectives...but the lose is a lose.
Whats your stop loss on your swing position.....I had my ass handed to me in january shorting TOL.....one stock i won't be shorting anytime soon or keeping on a very short leash.......the builders and oil stocks have brought back memories of the internet mania in early 2000.... R....by the way keep up the awesome trades....your kickn butt besides the odd heckler that drops in to say hello.....lol
Hi FA,
Keep up the good work....your puttong on awesome trades...... whenever you get sometime....whats your prognosis of Precision Drilling(PDS) its an oil services sector stock.....thanks in advance......R
Thanks for your thoughts.... one of the gold technicians i follow closely thinks that gold for much of this year will be consolidating into the fall before the next big bull move......R
FA......just discovered the thread......what is your outlook on Gold for the remainder of the year....?
lol......made me laff
Hopefully at somepoint they start selling the news.....a short experiencing some pain.
REUTERS UPDATE 1-U.S. home builder optimism falls in Jan-report [DVKTFGC]
(Rewrites first paragraph, adds quotes, outlook for housing starts)
NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. homebuilder optimism dropped for the first time in four months in January after reaching its highest point of 2004 in December, an industry report said on Tuesday.
The National Association of Home Builders said its housing market index fell 1 point to 70 in January versus 71 in December.
The housing market index is a gauge of builder sentiment about sales and buyer traffic.
Despite the drop, the index was the same as the average monthly level for the final quarter of 2004, which was the strongest period of the index last year, NAHB said. January's index is based on responses from builders who were surveyed during the past two weeks.
"Builders are geared up for another solid year and expect the demand from home buyers to remain resilient," newly elected 2005 NAHB president David Wilson, a custom home builder from Ketchum, Idaho, said in a statement.
"We expect somewhat higher mortgage rates, but they will still be at reasonably affordable levels to accommodate families who are shopping for a new home."
An index reading of greater than 50 means that more builders view sales conditions as good than see them as poor.
Economists consider the index a barometer of future building activity and an indication of the government's monthly housing starts and building permits report, which is due to be released early on Wednesday.
Analysts expect that housing starts will be reported at a 1.9 million annualized rate, up from a 1.771 million rate in November, according to the median estimate of 30 economists surveyed by Reuters. This marks an increase of 7.3 percent.
Building permits, a barometer of future construction, are expected to dip to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.985 million units in December from November's revised 2.028 million, according to 15 economists surveyed by Reuters.
The NAHB's index for traffic of prospective buyers fell 2 points to 50, suggesting a decrease in the number of people checking out model homes over the last month.
The NAHB measure for current sales of new homes was down 1 point to 77 in January, while the index gauging its members' sales expectations dropped 2 points to 78.
(C) Reuters 2005. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of companies around the world. 18Jan05 19:16 GMT
Source RTRS Reuters News
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Hi AJ,
Great thread......would welcome your analysis of the Toll brothers chart whenever you have sometime at your convenience....thanks in advance....R
Market maybe red till 10:30 when the API numbers come out.....if oil gets whacked then the market puts on its rally hat at least for a day or two.....lol
Steve,
Would welcome your thoughts on shorting the XAU with the spike of crude to 43......plannning on laying a one third short position this aft on NEM....Ron
equity put call.....0.475 ??
PD has been holding strong......pull backs are on low volume.....advances on high......waiting to get out of my shorts hopefully on the next pull back.....oil hit one month high yesterday. Ideally pulls back next dayor two with gold on the rampage.....would be ideal time to cover short position and load up full tilt on the gold shorts on thursday close or friday open etc.
lol.....too much
covered half of pd at 64......now at 63 but holding strong d espite oil getting whacked in the open.....will see what the last 30 minutes looks like if downside momentum picks up.
Back in the same boat.....short 8k at 63.00.. could have covered at break even or hold .....at least for half a point....mmmm....ultimate poker game
Gonna hold dem......last time was was short with average at 66.00 only to watch they slam it down to 58.75.......like the bid ask tension
everytime it rallies to 64.50.... 5k on the ask shows up....... 60k volume in the last hour not bad will love to see a COTL...
Also short 1k BCE dog of the telco industry....blew it up to 26.53...... now trading below the open.....would like to see the heavy pressure return on the ASK from the mut funds...this stock as not been able to hold a bid from the mid 28.40s....pounded mercilessly. Close shorts way too earch inthe high 26.88....left a full point on the table
.....well looking to reposition in the next two days
Short Precision Drilling hopefully will get some pullback for a scalp trade....up two points .....looking for a half point give back tomorrow.
Anybody know why Placer is outperforming the gold group today ?
Hi Steve,
Kern also sees a pull back in the golds and than a great buying opportunity next week.....meaning the dollar will likely get whacked....
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html
Nem position short order was closed out 45.25
Nem power house today.......expect fake to the upside when CNBC commented that gold stocks overvalued ....what do they do ?......takem higher and squeeze the shorts.....lol
xau Filled downside jan 13/04 gap nicely now needs to back fill and head lower......look to closing out the short tomorrow at the latest.....don't like being short golds over night as they are in a primary bull trend....period.
Nice to see the xau pull back smartly in the last 15 minutes......had they pushed it to the HOD then i would be sweating......30 cent drop in no time.....lol
closed out scalp short......
looking to reshort NEm.....46.64
qqq
pp=35.751
r2=36.221
r1=36.01
s1=35.541
s2=35.281
lookingto close short at 35.59
Trans bounced off the 50dma
sox bounced off the previous pivot lows
vix back below 10dma
bkx broke DT(joined the trans/sox) from previous days
Covered Nem at 45.85.....have to learn to take profits off the table....was up almost a buck at 12:30 when it bottomed at 45.20....next thing i knew wicked bounce.....gold stocks very resilient.
covered for 0.30.....shorted qqq at the close.....35.77.....looking for merely a scalp trade in the morning to close before 11:00.