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My chart was upside down...I was standing on my head when i drew this chart.
Yes, that's right ajtj...i didn't even pay attention to the price on that chart when i drew in the pattern..i will post change in trend times (CIT's) soon if i find anything reliable for tomorrow. they are actually either highs or lows but once in a while they invert.
yes, in tomorrow's pattern there usually is a one hour lunch counter trend move...that's why i have it in there from 12:45 to 1:40....
2-4
It's been years since i've done this but i figure i'll give it a shot again..base on today's pattern this is a rough sketch of tomorrow's pattern...i will use this as somewhat of a template but know that price is king.
black line is the pattern forecst
http://picasaweb.google.com/lip411/Charts#5298702292097450978
good luck.
Teaparty, i have March 17th as a big low...close to your March 16 CIT...this cycle is on my weekly chart. i think this is a very good cycle. fwiw
Wow, that's a really nice site..i'll have to look at it more later..if today is a low then i can find the next high..will do that soon...thanks for the link, Ajtj
cool, Teaparty...let's see where miss Market takes us this week..
Yes, i do AJTJ...but based on market action i now have a cycle low due Friday 1/23...We C.. you're right with the end of day low! I start trading futures end of this month...can't wait!
I have intraday cycle low here at this price for spx. (fwiw)
Hi snootmagruder, maybe my cycles go in cycles? (g) I've been working on something that's highly accurate for a while: price itself..the market gives us clues everyday where the next price highs and lows will be...
that spx 966 number i posted (actually it's 959- i was going on memory was generated on Nov 21st in the mid 700's...this is off of the daily chart...
i'll start posting intraday levels soon, probably this weekend. I'll post minimum spx target and ideal target (which is the next number after the minimum target is reached....below was my email to family members: i hope to participate here daily this month when i start trading futures....
--------------------------------------------------------
Philip to Tu, Jake, Tho, Bang, Clarisse, Kim.D.Le, nants54, smilie8424, kimle, bleer6, kimlejr
show details Jan 7 (2 days ago)
Reply to all
it's possible the top was put in today...i already have lower
projections if that is the case...my daily charts say we still have a
date with 959 though so will have to see how market behaves...i began
putting on a short position today.. my projection from a few days is
below...we hit those targets!! we nailed the 918 ideal target Monday
and today hit the high end...i shorted at the high today.. like i said
still have cycle highs and 959 (959 to 966 zone)..but i got in today
just in case..will go fully short if we hit 959.
On Sun, Jan 4, 2009 at 12:00 AM, Philip <lip411@gmail.com> wrote:
- Hide quoted text -
> I have minimum target SPX 922.88 and ideal target around 918. break
> above Friday high and target is negated and we go to 945.
cycles
I missed the early Dec high (cycles aren't perfect) but the cluster of December lows arrived (although low was not deep)...
next i have 1/9/09 (friday) high and 1/12/09 (monday) high...looking for spx 966 on or before those highs(fwiw)...then 1/20/09 low
I left out 12/22 Low. The cluster of lows in December are:
12/16, 12/22, and 12/26...and a weekly low on 12/24.
edit: there's also a 12/18 High..this is probably just a bounce before another drop...
cycles update
11/14 High got a stronger selling reaction than i anticipated but it turned out to be a good high...11/24 high got a minimal selling reaction (only around 30 spx points)...i had a low on 11/26 and 11/27...next up i have a high on 12/2...and a cluster of lows middle of December...
last time i had a cluster of lows was on : 10/23 L, 10/30 L and 11/3 L...the midpoint of this cluster was 10/29L, we had a large drop into 10/28 Low...
i have cluster of lows in December: 12/16 and 12/26 lows are on a daily chart....midpoint would be Sunday 12/21...
on weekly chart i have a low on 12/24....
I'm looking for a big drop into these lows...FWIW...good luck.
Hi relax, i don't use fib or anything static like a 55 trading day cycle...or a 23 week cycle etc...mine is dynamic depending on the structure of the market. Also, there are no inversions...they are either highs or lows.
Hi aj, my gracious host! I've admired you as a person and your work for a long time aj. It's amazing how dedicated and committed you are to your ihub friends, and to share day in and day out...that's commendable! These are reasons you are so popular here!
You have a good memory! Here are a few tennis photos. I was playing with the Eslami sisters in summer 2007 here:
http://picasaweb.google.com/lip411/PhilipTennis#
Sadly, i lost all my data for the intraday cycles. They were deleted a few years back. It'a shame cuz i spent a lot of time and research on them....
but, my daily cycles have been accurate so we'll see how they play out. 11/24 seems to be a big high. And 12/16 seems to be a nice low.
Good to hear from you too aj, hope your ribs are feeling better!
Hi AD and John126!
cycles
I have a high on 11/14, another high on 11/24...and a low on 12/16.
What a sad day. :(
It was an honor and privilege to have known Zeev since 1999 through SI and Ihub.
Zeev was such a wonderful person, and loved by many.
My heart aches, this does not feel real.
Rest in peace Angel.
:(((
testing..
All Sessions
72ma
121ma
rsi 6
delete
LG, Jeff has been on target with his calls since May. He has said that if his model were to be broken, he would abandon it. He also has a point at which the model becomes dead. Who are you to say what will work and what will not. Is yours the only that works? The fact is his "T/A" has been working and his calls continue to be correct. His numbers and dates have been on target, yes? If you do not understand his TA, perhaps you should ask him directly instead of critizing him from afar? Just my opinion. Good luck.
thanks itsallover..nice of you to chime in. Augieboo went through the trouble of explaining the model here:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1345
It sounds like an interesting concept. Thanks again.
hi ajtj, i've heard about the retrace theory and Jeff had sent me some info.. is it possible for you to summarize how it works? I assume this is Jeff's work?
Zeev, any chance we see today's highs again today?
thx extelecom..
but when you start posting about money exchanging hands
i guess i thought nothing of it when i made that post since i'm used to being in that situation (from my previous job)..i was just being open but i can see why people didn't like what i posted after reading my post again and puting myself in their shoes..
no ill feelings, not a problem..good luck and good night
thx Rich..it's not a problem, i'm still around
lol augie..you have a way of getting your message across..very clever and funny
and yes i should have been sneaky about the whole situation -g-thx for the msg..
thx Gary, very nice of you and i'm flattered you took the time to compose your only mssg here ..hope youre having a good time in FLa and good luck to you, too..
p.s. i agree with what you said about Zeev..
[off/topic] solicitation is such a harsh word..i didnt go to any other thread besides this one here and Zeev's Turnips thread on SI, both of which i had been posting on..all i did was asked whether folks would be interested in this type of service so that i can actually commit to it for the next few months..an apparently there is an interest from the responses i've received..someone had asked me to post my forecasts more regularly last month and i responded that i wouldnt be able to do that unless i quit teaching tennis (again)..
i had been a tennis teaching pro for many years and had retired from teaching since 1999..missed it and started teaching again this summer for the first time since then.. although it's tougher in the summer, it's well worth it..i had planned to trade during the day and teach during the evenings so researching and preparing a forecast for the next day would be too much for me to handle, something would have to give.. this is why i was going to try the service for 6 months.
so what i posted earlier was considered spam, yes? it was deleted because i was in violation of this:
Chairman Deletions
Chairman (and Directors) of stock-specific boards are allowed to remove any post for Admin review that falls into the following categories: Duplicate, Personal Attack, Spam.
OK, that's fine..
i'll stop cluttering up this thread on this issue, last msg..
so·lic·it Pronunciation Key (s-lst)
v. so·lic·it·ed, so·lic·it·ing, so·lic·its
v. tr.
1.To seek to obtain by persuasion, entreaty, or formal application: a candidate who solicited votes among the factory workers.
2.To petition persistently; importune: solicited the neighbors for donations.
3.To entice or incite to evil or illegal action.
4.To approach or accost (a person) with an offer of sexual services.
Hello all, would anyone be interested if i put together a service, emailing out forecasts each night? it's going to take me time to research the patterns and and put together either a fractal forecast chart or a hand drawn forecast chart along w/maybe some commentary.. $30/month would be affordable enough for just about everyone..i'll commit the next 6 months to this service if you are interested but will not be able to start until September..
reply, pm, or email me so i know if there's enough interest.
lip411@cox.net
suggested 20% order vs Result
oh, i meant to say you wouild flip the chart w/the 80% probability..that would make it look like the upper right-hand chart (20%)..i think if we trade this scenario, then i'll be looking at a 10AM low, up to 10:30H, down to midday..after taht it's hard to say exactly how we trade timewise i'm not sure how strong the run up will be (assuming we trade this patttern)
off for the week, too tired, good luck.. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
augie, lol..ok have a good night
itsallover lol, i had my old moniker 'lip411' changed to 'anon' also on SI.. thx
oh, i meant to say you wouild flip the chart w/the 80% probability..that would make it look like the upper right-hand chart (20%)..i think if we trade this scenario, then i'll be looking at a 10AM low, up to 10:30H, down to midday..after taht it's hard to say exactly how we trade timewise i'm not sure how strong the run up will be (assuming we trade this patttern)
i'll stay up until 1:15 in case anyone has Q's re: those charts..really beat, about to doze off soon.
disregard the numbers i have on these charts.. looking at how we traded today, i'd have to go with the (upper) 20% probability scenario, looking at a quick low AM to flip the chart upsidedown so that we get an AM high down to midday..the run back up may not be as strong as the chart indicates..
best i can do without diving into ms market tonight, good luck..
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/moniker/s1-linkage%20ex1%2011-19.gif
augie, i'm really beat.. i'm running tennis camp all week and possibly next week also, but if i can squeeze in a market read during the week i'll post here.. i noticed the last two trading days have been an inversion of the 6/28 'and' 7/1 trading days, shape wise. -g- havent done any research so i dont have a fractal for tomorrow's market, it will depend on whether we get a spillover of the high from today's close.. a spillover high then drop into 10am ish would mean..actually, gifve me a few mintutes to put together a chart...
augie, the basis of what i do revolves around this sentence: "markets reverse directly or inversely every four revolutions of the earth." I follow a cycle of 4 days and you can read al about this in Welle's Wilder's book, the Delta Phenomenon.. the book will tell you why it works but will not tell you how it works..I have the short term Delta solution, which Wilder was selling for about 25k back in the 80's (i believe this was the amount)..the book, to some extent, will tell you how to discover the Delta solution but thousands and thousands have bought it only to shelve it..it's very difficult to solve..most have tried only to get frustrated and quit..if you go around talking about Delta, what you'll get is people laughing at you and telling you how much a fraud Wilder/Delta is (i've heard this before and from people who have bought the intraday short term solution (so i've read since i was still in elementary school in the early '80's, actually just last year i knew a trader who bought the solution way back then and said Wilder is the biggest fraud lol)..
I do use Delta but in a different way than those who have the solution and actually use it to trade..i also dont talk about it so that i appear to have some credibility -g-
so if the "why" is worth $175 bucks to you, then go buy the book -g- but imo, the book is just a marketing lead in to become part of the Delta Society ($$$$)
I have to go! have fun..
ok augie, let me get caught up with Zeev's posts and other things, then i'll answer your question..
Hey Cholan! the movie was pretty good.. i almost didnt see it cuz of your 51% probability -gg-
Zeev, this is rather interesting -g- :
http://www.boomspeed.com/moniker/weekly.gif
hi D2, it might not be a good idea for me to make a call since tomorrow is an inversion day for the potatoes..but if we decline into midday tomorrow, i would have a 68% chance the late pm will be a high, and if we rally into midday tomorrow i would have a 68% chance the late pm will be a low...maybe Zeev has a better roadmap
i do have a prediction for tomorrow that has a greater than 68% probability, though..
prediction: 80% chance i will be watching the movie, Reign of Fire, tomorrow -gg-