Just concluded a 1x1 with JD via Noble. Thoughtful insights from a view at 50,000':

He sees Schedule 3 as a reality prior to the elections and sees a generation of free cash flow as a result of 280(e) going away with SG&A write-offs as any normal business may apply. Will create substantial roughly 4x increased cash flow if I read the chart correctly.

In turn, he does not foresee SAFE(R) banking as happening in Congress at present.

Scoffed at the notion of any default, technical nor otherwise. His investment too great.

They are exploring how to best deal with notes coming due next year and exploring available options whether taken out of hide or by extension.

From what he said, TW's absence is more temporary with a slowdown in current M&A activity and some well needed time with family. From the inference, I suspect TW will be back (never really left)

Although many competitor's stores in CO and NM are closing, they are evaluating each location as an individual opportunity as they present.

In NM, the rampant cheating (product brought into NM from out of State, namely CA, CO, and OK) is now a felony offense in NM and is resulting in a number of prosecutions and closures. The NM closure rate has exceeded the opening rate for competitor dispensaries/licenses and is likely to continue for some time.

They have a ton of competition in Albuquerque, but JD insists they will be the largest and best with greater selection and tiered pricing (which JD claims they now have a distinct advantage) and customer loyalty as their continued key drivers.

Their investment last Q which they took away some otherwise available cash is beginning to ramp with incremental revs and he foresees those rev increases continuing for the next 7-8 Q's (I believe this was CapEx for ERP/mfg/grow op improvements)

He stated he's in it for the longer game and, yes, this team plans to win.

Updated company presentation: https://ir.schwazze.com/static-files/8bb5e456-6f27-41a4-92d9-4a93d2c95b0b

And elsewhere in NM: #35! A long ways from belly up it seems as some seemly opine here.

https://ir.schwazze.com/news-releases/news-release-details/schwazze-announces-grand-opening-its-35th-new-mexico-dispensary

You wanted overhead reduction in multiple posts and want a PR too? How about a sticky gold star on your posts? Integrated supply chain VP also gone. Your criticisms no longer make that much economic common sense. I get it, you be pissed, Steven. I can only surmise they are looking to refi and waiting on the govt like all of us while making the best of what they have.

Departure per the website's leadership page: Todd Williams, EVP, M&A and Real Estate. Portends a retail and wholesale focus within the existing footprint. Refi of debt and improve efficiency while maintaining or improving upon their 8% market share of CO and NM would seem to be the immediate focus.

Just found this on their website, at least an update. Seems the 63-store count is plodding along and holding 8% of the TAM in both CO and NM and sales trending up from the dip in Q2 last year as read: https://ir.schwazze.com/static-files/8bb5e456-6f27-41a4-92d9-4a93d2c95b0b

Elsewhere hiring highlights a Treasury monitor and of course they have some 25MM additional shares to be authorized for corporate purposes as part of the '24 Proxy. BF Borgers (previous CPA firm now has severe problems with SEC for using cut and paste past data as a basis for reporting non-current as what was supposed to be at another company) is out and now Baker-Tilly in with current BoD staying put.

Plague? Or no short-term recall...They did have a CEO leave. And prior to that the President for Retail in NM left in what could be the timeframe fit as per this lawsuit's claims. That should/could be an indication that things were addressed as actual consequences and perhaps a lack of confidence to lead. I will add that my not so infrequent dispersions cast upon HR are still an omni-present set of issues as the ESG-DEI crap is effn thriving in both CO and NM where the Schwazze calls home. That is an unfortunate systemic problem with few reasonable solutions available until the woketards give up power.

Yesterday was a nice price blip, but it appears the market has decided upon a zero out as the politicians are stalling until November with any REAL policy changes possible based on their hollow posturing. CS and his current CACA bill is doa in the HoR. Empty Senate gestures for the benefit of we stuck with stupid ultra conservatives and stupider progressives. See POTUS campaign from confines of a Delaware beach house while Rome burns. It's so screwed up. No winners possible. SAFER on the other hand the little bill that could but isn't either as conveniently buried by big pharma's uni-party doublespeak of "what is important, soon or worth laying down over". Nope. Not the best and brightest --except as grifters.

Kudo's to Damacon's synopsis. I noted a few things of what I think added some value: Analyst coverage has grown based on the que. More on this call than ever I believe. The decision on interim CEO may be a "we have our man" already and the BOD wishes to see how his stewardship goes as he was a CEO previously. Finally, the market's rapid growth in start-up competition is going away according to their estimates.

My takeaway is a Green Thumb approach of slower organic growth and making the most of the existing footprint they built out in the last 2-years. For instance, a new dispensary per Q based on curtailed expansion or a one-time smaller buy in the OK-TX border or the West/Mountain area in CO (if mass generated in geographical proximity is keeping the regional approach) Perhaps not sexy, but should be a viable business despite the message board thrashings looking for a new trade entry (So, the company still will be the big fish in their regional small pond) Keeping tabs on the controller and treasurer functions are key to managing the favorable refi of debt --and that is my pinkish-red flag.

Steven, did you get the TPS Report Memo yet? Yeah...the Bobs are going to want to talk to you.

In that case...

Some bifurcation in this company. Between StevenRisk and Crabman1...here are some thoughts on a Friday...Hence, previous complaints on sloppy messaging and direction: Focus? Observations:

Positives:
$MSOS has been steadily buying blocks of the company (50K yesterday included) and why it finished in the green for the day.
Interim CEO (indicative of experience and continued stability).
Hiring continues unabated.
No news is not bad news for now.

Negatives:
Company communications still on silent running (removed investor deck, no date for Q4/FY23 (10Q/!0K) no presentations, conferences nor media. Noteworthy USCC finally set up a page with NK as the Chairman only after he left Schwazze!
HR advertising for hiring multiple folks to piss away $500K+ a year on DEI, HR Relations, and Rewards is demonstrative of sustained stupidity --a broken functional area and in this instance needs a new Sr Leader ASAP as this situation demonstrates a contentedness to sustain and monetize racial, economic, and divisive turmoil vs what else could be worse, unionization which could cost less to contend with and not appear as grossly stupid? Examples...See video replay of NK wearing a hat sideways as what was a cool CEO talking to the company employees. Yes. That was stupid. Even perhaps insulting to many thinking persons...like, investors. Institutionalizing such a mentality as "sustainable" in a business is worse. Is this company interviewing clowns for a kids' party or what? One's best "game face" at work is what grownups do and what should be expected of all hires. Game theory re sustaining tribalism is what corporate idiots in Colorado must do? This has implications (real)! which are hurtful to the current investor watching funds go to social experimentation and not product, locations, nor effective executive leadership and actual qualified persons in a company while driving stakes into holders of this company's stock.

Manipulation works both ways. Hmm, many more shares of $SHWZ to be acquired if historical purchasing of other companies is any indication? Some former holdings being replaced entirely it seems. Schwazze (700,000th reminder to self it sounds like Oz in "The Wizzard of Oz") has been compared favorably to other MSOs with similar favorable operating metrics perhaps seems a good fit.

Agree, Doc.

On another related corporate topic...I'm hopeful the DEI nonsense also finds it's way gone with his departure--as in a to the bone purge. There was a problem in some of the last HR type positions they were advertising...one a $100K+ a year DEI manager and yet another HR Rep to smooth over employee relations (presumably from the former). Frick and Frack? One creates problems and the other attempts to solve? Paid division. Lacks leadership, messaging and focus. In sum, that bizarre culture is an eff'n distraction. Sr. Leadership/HR allowed this or created it. This is/hopefully was a needed fix imo.

The ETFs holding and continuing to buy SHWZ is of course helpful. I too suspect a climb into better than a full percent at $MSOS and suspect it may settle closer to 3% based on what I've seen cast to the wayside at MJUS. There are obviously a bunch of broken noses as a result of this churn, but I think SHWZ is on the right side of it after MJUS destroyed the stock back in '22? The big question remains...why? Find that and we have a guide lamp.

Any thoughts on starbuds.us now at 4 each in MS and OK (up and down)? Leveling out on the Southern route? Nope. But I can foresee not overpaying to extend into a third State as a good thing per what is a longer Texas wall we've been eyeing for a couple of years. Saturation (again) should be the next phase following a brief consolidation should the inflows be there to support it. Exciting times ahead.

Meanwhile, Florida looks to rip at any moment on an increased possibility of rec going forward.

Reality. The Fed won't drop rates. Dirty little secret: Jerome Powell isn't a Democrat. Refi another issue. 280E another issue. Both with positive implications.

As to enforcement questions: There is no funding mechanism at the Federal level for cannabis as a violation via Schedule I let alone III (as in why not enforce at Sch I already--and they don't?) where the product is cultivated, mfg, and sold legally at the State level AND where regulated by same as lawful. That said...There is a mechanism for Federal sanctioning interstate transport, importation, misuse of Federal land, transportation and export as goes to prosecuting detainers, arrests, seizures and trafficking charges where actual or conspired to do same unlawfully exists. The States are leading this effort, but slowly as they educate and mature their markets. Some "legal" companies are going to learn some harsh lessons shortly imo by providing product outside of lawful channels where they knew or should have known with either actual or constructive knowledge that the product would leave the purview of the legal market let alone, their State, where at even in these modern times no product may do so. Still! And those that remain unharmed (targeted) for recognized revenue reasons that allow individual lawful nascent markets as are established to grow outside of the Federal framework to exist.

Pauses on a number of fronts, Doc. This location "On Hold" was to have been a R. Greenleaf in Tucumcari, NM. May be one someday in the future as well. For now...SHWZ like many businesses in the sector wait for conditions to make that next round of investment and leg up a reality. Like the greatest friend of cannabis Chuck Schumer says..."Soon." I fear, however, he may be right --and especially without his snarky help this time around.

Current real estate status:
https://www.crexi.com/properties/1031361/new-mexico-3404-e-rte-66-boulevard

As was previously listed by a third-party provider:
https://www.newmexicocannabisexchange.com/directory/listing/r-greenleaf-organics-32/

Signs from the helping hands people...recent NM enforcement. Respondents ordered to immediately "waste" all of their product. Chosen phraseology sort of amusing. Wonder if they applied for a burn permit?

https://fortune.com/2024/01/03/new-mexico-cannabis-fine/

Your material as cited is dated. Perhaps you should look at their website: https://schwazze.com/our-leaders/

That's not what good looks like. Living the dream. /s

Speaking of wholesale... https://purplebees.com/

The Find Us page is interesting where else sold as branded (and, of course, the basis for white labels sold elsewhere) in CO and NM appearing to being populated on the map in some major centers, but far short of posting even at all Schwazze's current locations. A good start as retailers are added.

Fairly certain that distribution (finished product to be sold by a wholesale customer is not included) as they report/collect the sales taxes which are the basis for the reporting on the NMRLD portal only when sold at retail by their respective reporting dispensaries. We eventually get wholesale numbers in the 10Qs. Has anyone found a site location for sales by Elemental Kitchen, PurpleBees or Star*Buds' MIDs on the reporting website or any of the cultivations? Again, it's a function of retail sales when a tax is collected per the reported retail sale and these as displayed are only dispensary sales. Or the companies-individuals would be prosecuted for not playing fairly by importing, reselling, gifting (value) or possessing cannabis from outside NM or those operating in State without licensure --and would be taxed or held accountable as illegal product when that purchase or action was/wasn't reported (the grossly unregulated and under policed black market of prior issue)

A glass half-full argument? Really gets STUPID-RIDICULOUS INTERESTING if they decide on say some 30K papers of science rather than knee jerk conservative sacred cow pseudo-science and move to deschedule. --as that would please the ranger parachutist in me as an airfield takedown.

Updated Investor Deck: https://ir.schwazze.com/static-files/8bb5e456-6f27-41a4-92d9-4a93d2c95b0b

Who knows I'm just saying lots of issues need addressed.

Agree.

DEI (Divest Erase Ignore) Just add business, value, or shareholders to these words, and it becomes instantly poignant, and tracks the complaints I too have and have read. These unfortunately aren't symptoms, rather results of this current retarded form of woke capitalism pervading the first world. And canna in general (along with unabated taxes and schedule) appears in greater trouble as an industry while the black market (see DEI claimed otherwise as diversity, equity and inclusion) so promotes.

I believe the requirements for the convertible note --prior to conversion, includes language that any further debt is essentially prohibited (unless the note holder also approves) there are restrictions on dilution, and cash thresholds maintained for each Q of $10MM. Seems like a lot of hand wringing for the year end? Sure, the stock price is terrible, but they are growing with the wholesale revs gaining and the sector is a dumpster fire from what govt won't do when. Govt has not been kind. They've basically lied to us all. I don't see this as a threat to being a going concern nor do I see a true reflection at the current price as anywhere near reasonable based on sales in mature markets that are not going away --and that of course means they should take away a larger share over time as a firmly established multi-banner op. The market at present is saying otherwise. I do think they have gone silent for far too long and that has hurt their cause. I do think the current CEO should have a more pronounced presence and certainly before releasing a Q4 into a vacuum as was essentially Q3's report. I do see some adjustments with stores still without an updated investor deck where there was tangible progress that should be continually refreshed/documented. Sometimes things are way too cheap. And that should be made clear. I do think the only relief we may see soon is reschedule, and I don't see them sitting on that for a year as they would lose all sorts of credibility before end of Q1 '24 as outright liars. It's clear by way of redacted memos under FOIA they (Govt) have been sitting on a decision since July at HHS and for what real reason, again, nobody knows!

Positive move. 2-year Schedule I to formerly unregulated largely Chinese synthetic internet, smoke shop, and gas station competition:

.https://www.greenmarketreport.com/dea-places-six-cannabinoids-in-temporary-schedule-1/

Tax loss related sales? Approx 114K-shares traded down to a new all-time intraday low. News or no news one direction this year (down) with increased velocity and gravity it seems. That makes up for last weeks unexplained pop.

Schwazze appears to have added Kristin Hull as the Senior VP, Retail and Ken Bair as the Senior VP, Retail, NM. Perhaps they went too lean to properly support their retail model's growth?
https://schwazze.com/our-leaders/

Correction. Total of 64-dispensaries. I double counted a Star*Buds. 21 existing + Garden City coming soon from Smokey's.

Update on locs. Appears they are planning to open a dispensary in NM soon. 65-dispensaries the current total with this as detailed below and the Garden City, CO Star*Buds (also currently in the hiring pipeline that I provided previously) I believe 65 is a solid number for current count purposes (which includes any dual purpose [med-rec] to include banner store within a store as counted only once per physical address). Any locations I previously found have been obscured by NMRLD or certainly aren't being volunteered as under active completion nor otherwise by the company. CO's website has been less helpful as well.

22 Star*Buds (+ Garden City hiring)
06 Emerald Fields
14 Everest
19 R. Greenleaf (+ Bernalillo hiring)
02 Standing Akimbo (#3 Ft Collins loc already counted w/ co-located Star*Buds)
65 Total

https://www.redfin.com/NM/Bernalillo/242-US-550-87004/home/168295559

Garden City, CO now has the spin up of new positions posted (assistant manager, shift lead, and budtender) 66-positions available company wide as advertised presently.

https://schwazze.com/careers/

This addresses my question which was skipped during the cc re Smokey's to Star*Buds status: Location: Star Buds - Garden City (2515 7th Ave, Garden City CO, 80631) With the square footage available (over 6K) perhaps another Standing Akimbo store within a store possibility based on the initial test in Ft Collins if viewed as a competitive advantage.

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2515-7th-Ave_Garden-City_CO_80631_M15095-32039

Private placement most likely.

The chart. You have written what I believe is clearly misunderstood by your interpretation. The bar chart represents a combined R Greenleaf and Everest sales from April '22 for both medical and recreational as separate color bands (despite the companies not yet being joined in April '22) This was made by the poster on Twitter and disclosed as such as a combined chart. I believe that is correct.

The top number is rec (not a total) of the two as written, while the midline or lower number is medical as written for both companies as reported. Add them for the total (see vertical Y axis to the far left which is different scale value than these separate numbers as depicted separately) Perhaps the total is something more than what you are not adding inspite of the relative decline and new stores which have increased over the X axis timeline?

Yes, there is obvious compression as shown while dispensaries increased monthly (not noted on the chart as a total per month) but we know by NMRLD a recorded 1 additional Everest in September and 8 additional R Greenleaf as populated along the way from the 11 for a combined total today of 34 per NMRLD with these reported sales. If the numbers were similar, in April '22 there were 11 R Greenleaf and 14 or fewer Everest, thus somewhere in the combined 25 range then? I do not have the numbers for Everest prior to acquisition nor growth pattern.

No matter, the crunch, is apparent. The question becomes what they plan to do to manage it with revised guidance appearing required for we, the public. They addressed the unlimited licenses in a letter to the Govenor and there does seem to be some attrition as to storefronts taking place in the NM total market. Sales declines reduced basket sizes and reduced number of customer visits in a weaker economy with lower prices are also present. Consolidation isn't always pretty. The expression, "Everyone would be doing it." comes to mind in the form of current sarcasm. Yes, many have tried --and we are viewing the ugly period that there will be fewer left. Between the black market and the lack of helpful government policy, it is going to stay ugly for a while imo.

As already expounded upon here:

That said, the market rebound is somewhat all over the map, with some retailers reporting that their sales are trending down over recent months, while others are up significantly, Shaw said.

Another noteworthy trend, he said, is that sales of dispensaries have picked up again in recent months, by about 25% from what he saw in 2022. And many of the dispensary purchasers are existing Colorado marijuana companies that have changed business strategies and decided to expand their footprint for various reasons.

“The growers wanted to get vertical and have stores, and this way they could have a buffer, and they could charge a little more for their wholesale product,” Shaw said. “It’s also two- or three-store operators who know they need to get to five or six stores to really be profitable and scale.” (so, what's thirty+ like?)

https://www.greenmarketreport.com/colorado-market-rebounding-somewhat-but-contraction-isnt-over/

More dispensaries in the pipeline based on licensed sites already approved.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/schwazze-sets-third-quarter-2023-conference-call-for-november-14-2023-at-500-pm-et-301970632.html

Double up! The med licensing market is taking an interesting turn...The Ft Collins' unit A is now as announced previously a Star*Buds but the Unit C is now a third Standing Akimbo, both converted from what was previously and an expanded Smokey's footprint. Continued expansion with retail banner differentiation in a mature, sophisticated market a tried-and-true concept. The power of providing what is meant to be a best choice and expanding those brands' awareness into new markets another savvy move.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/5740+S+College+Ave+UNIT+C,+Fort+Collins,+CO+80525/[@ userid=105].0768055,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x87694cf5251b9f95:0x6c6a92b2fc86718c!8m2!3d40.5068327!4d-105.0768055!16s%2Fg%2F11nsw6l2hv?entry=ttu

There would be greater liquidity and multimedia presentations if it were. Yes, unavoidable sarcasm.

And one additional pre-opening thought... why would the BoD accept shares if they were taking the company private at a lower price as you are indicating as a "feared" possibility? Would a director be buying on the open market as well? Do they need a larger individual loss? Makes no sense, but your bashing disguised as rational analysis does. Seriously!

Serious reply:

Please explain what is the advantage of taking it private? There is none as already public, that being the end goal.

Assume for a millisecond Doc is correct (which he isn't) What happens then as debt obligations are not met? Does largest shareholder or his creation bc Dye win or lose? It would be the latter as a holder of preferred with a third-party convertible debt holder against his favor. Again as too going private? No. The 280E offload in every company is based on being publicly traded and as an escape hatch.

This is an unrealistic assessment of remote risk by both you and the penny flipper. I choose to disagree with you and ask myself this instead: a) How did they get here? b) What has changed? And c) if the govt's position hasn't why is this down more now than before?

I see growth and market share up several hundred percent from no dispensaries, to about 70 with both mfg, cultivation and licensing in two states. That idea about consolidating Colorado is today's reality. The market may price it irrationally, but there is something very real there with people, places, and things that didn't exist as anything like there is today. The govt hasn't done squat in sum and that never stopped SHWZ. And for those that can look past a quote on the OTCQX or the Cboe...it still hasn't.