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I regard threats to Nvidia from AMD as seriously as threats to Intel from AMD
AMD has been, and likely will continue to be a second string provider. Intel cherishes them , AMD keeps the monopoly lawyers away without any real impact on profits.
The Arcam sale leaves me without any "hold for 5 or 6 years if needed, ignore fluctuations, I read the patents" investment ideas.
anybody have any good picks?
Sell all or sell part now and wait for the rest?
3 main possibilities
1) deal with GE goes through, arbitrage should raise ADR price somewhat to keep up with Swedish stock
2) other companies like Pratt and Whitey wake up to fact that they will have to come begging to GE for any 3DP of titanium parts. GE resources should "commercialize' EBM faster and the Arcam patents are very solid and those that turn it from theory to reality have years to run.
3) the EU does some sort of blockage trying to keep the AM tech in the EU. There is not a lot of real innovation in the EU so they hate to lose their investment. By definition EBM is a monopoly at this time.
Me, I sold most today (bird in the hand stuff) but still undecided about the rest. The EU does worry me. Or even US regulators.
It will be interesting to see the EU reaction to this and whether they will push some EU company into making a bid. I think that is a possibility.
Because the EU sank a lot of research money into EBM, and now this will go to benefit a US centered company. I always thought Arcam could not reach it's full potential aa Swedish based company but a more central in the EU, maybe.
The story may not be over. I have sold some but will hang on to some too in case a bidding war breaks out. Because the GE offer is actually low . GE is getting a patent tight monopoly on making titanium parts that nobody else can mak
I was in Arcam before I found this board but many thanks to all the great contributors- especially Charlie, the AMAVF Axe
unfortunately the EBM turbocharger design was a failure
Performance test data showed a higher than expected drop in efficiency and failure of the turbine at moderate testing conditions. This is attributed to the quality of the tested assembly which requires improvements before any further turbocharger tests can be done.
A niche player would be fine, the metals working market is huge.
OTOH EBM is probably the least developed type of AM and thus may have more room for improvement tan most.
I believe the EU has spent a lot of money on research into EBM, research that can only benefit Arcam. They would not be happy to see Arcam bought out by a non EU company.
The research is nice but at some point Arcam needs to move itself away from Sweden to have a physical location closer to the US or the main EU.A branch won't do ,it needs to be the functional HQ. I would be happier with my investment if it was US based.
"Smooth" is relative. Because as you increase magnification of the part it looks rougher and rougher
So no doubt there is some practical level where you don't gain much more from smoothness. Depending on the part and the application.
Nylon reinforced with Kevlar or Carbon is stronger than 6061-T6 Aluminum per pound and now quite affordable" You can find a real world example in modern pistols especially those made by Ruger. The frame is a reinforced plastic material, strong enough for it's purpose , but the rest of it is metal. Plastic does not stand up to the heat and stresses on the slide and barrel. Steel does.
Even though plastics are cheaper ,metal frames are still popular for those who aren't too cost oriented.
EBM has lots of competition. But the potential markets are so large that even 1% or 2% market share would do wonders for AMAVF price.
pdb2 I hope you are right
But it is not uncommon for high tech companies to experience a temporary gap in sales as they switch from tech enthusiasts and early adapters to more mainstream users.
I don't know exactly where Arcam is on the TALC , my guess is transitioning to early adapters stage.
Because I think EBM will eventually good for maybe 5% to 10% of the entire metal part making business. At some unknown time in the future. But only of they can continue to make the EBM machines better and equally important ,easier to use.
Meanwhile today AMAVF hit a 52 week high. It's always nice to see good investment analysis translate into profits.
SLM Solutions wins an award
http://www.pressebox.com/pressrelease/slm-solutions-gmbh/SLM-Solutions-receives-the-Best-of-Industry-AWARD-2016/boxid/796932
sales are up nicely but profits remain elusive
Has anybody looked into this as an investment? I am normally dubious of companies with no profits since it may be that expenses will always increase just a tad more than sales ...
I suspect the market for" experimental "EBM machines is getting close to saturation.
This would include machines for universities and research centers and machines bought by customers just trying out the process. Present machines are finicky , taking 6 to 12 months to produce a functional part meeting specs. And it may not be reproducible. IOW from what I read there is still a great deal of "art" involved.
Which is why Arcam is working hard on "commercialization" of machines, making them reliable and not requiring constant fiddling to work.
If this this thesis is correct there may be a lag in sales until EBM becomes more commercially useful. This does not change my long term outlook. Full utilization will also require a younger generation of designers and engineers because almost all of the older ones have a subtractive mindset.
The problem of trapped powder on any enclosed space ids to some extent shared with laser tech.
Proper design can eliminate much of this - use a truss not a honeycomb design to reduce weight
very good posts invstorhub123.
Which shows why Arcam is stressing industrialiization .
Making the process less less of an art and more reproducible.
Not an easy task at this early stage of the technology. The quoted "6 to 12 months " time from getting a new Arcam machine to producing any useable parts must be cut. Importantly the learning curve must not start from scratch with each new part. Because until this is achieved mass use of BM is unlikely
I have read Arcam's early patents They seem quite tight.
I have heard (lost source) that Arcam early patents were like those of the Wright brothers. The patent looked workable, the actual Wright aircraft flew, but subtle misdirections in the patent meant that if you built one following patent directions it would not fly. We know this because for a TV series that is exactly what they did and the meticulously crafted reproduction would not leave the ground.
In both cases later patents filled in the details, giving reproducible results along with a later patent date.
I lack the technical level to determine if this is really true about Arcam.
But it was true about the Wright brothers.
Arcam has lots of patents.
In any case trade secrets may be better protection. No doubt Arcam knows a lot more about EBM than was known 17 years ago.
The real problems are getting EBM industrialized, a system that does not require highly skilled labor and lots of tinkering. And getting engineers to think 180 degrees opposite, about adding rather than subtracting material when they are designing.
Competition might make for quicker adoption of EBM - just as Tesla thinks having other BEV makers will reduce resistance to electrification of the vehicle fleet and thus help Tesla sales
that Jack Beuth link has the information that maintenance on an EBM machine is about $40,000 per year,
plus the training costs of operators.
. And that if a company bought a machine today it would take them 6 to 12 months to get their first up to spec parts.
So there is a substantial learning curve.
The work being done at CMU should reduce this curve and make results more predictable in advance.
The talk also points out that more than one reliable source of Ti powder is needed before many companies are willing to additive manufacturing
I wonder if Arcam should be like Tesla and open up any patents on powder technology. There are pros and cons of this but it is hard to sell razors if customers believe they can't trust the supply of razor blades.
I believe AMAVF hit a 52 week high today.
Stock prices often move in mysterious ways but AMAVF price fluctuations are more of a puzzle than most.
If you don''t know the meaning of "art" there is always that last resort, a dictionary
Miriam Webster on "art"
skill acquired by experience, study, or observation
<the art of making friends>??
?: an occupation requiring knowledge or skill??
.ideally operating an EBM machine should be more like using a stapler than playing a violin. The less skill required the less the labor costs and thus he cheaper the end product. Added in would be reliability, does the machine require constant fiddling and adjusting or is it plug and play. Also add in complexity in manufacturing of the EBM machines themselves. Using Tesla as an example their earlier (2012) cars cost more to build than the latest 2016 cars. And their newest model the Gen 3 will be designed from the beginning or ease of manufacture now that they no longer have to prove that electric cars drive great, are not only the equal of ICE cars but in my opinion (drive one) better.
"biggest problem with keeping up with demand is not machine capacity but skilled personnel."
I think Arcam is going to have to leave Sweden if it wants to be a big time company.
English is the world language. And few of the non Swedish engineers (even fewer of whom speak Swedish) will be attracted to that cold high taxation edge of Europe.
That becomes an ever bigger problem as Arcam grows
"art and science" I suspect that is what Arcam means as part of "industrialization"- taking out the art part. Getting to a place where anybody can learn to work the machine after a r week or two instruction. Which in turn will make it eventually a good candidate for conversion to robotics.
Alas investing in alternative means of Additive Manufacturing in metals, real diversification, is not possible. There is ExOne, a loser, and EOS which is private. I like to see companies with profits or at least a hint that they will be coming soon. And they have to be public to have shares that can be purchased.Which makes the available list small
In the early days of autos you could not buy stock in the big winner, Ford
I exclude companies involved in plastics like DDD because the present plastic technologies are very cheap.
And I exclude companies like HP, any look at history suggests few are able to catch up to innovation.
I don't think that 40% of titanium powder is going to direct competitors.
AFAIK lasers an not do TiAl and other processes appear to be more complimentary than direct competition,
http://www.norsktitanium.com/
tinker those are some cogent questions.
Looking at it from the long term the questions about all that EU free (to Arcam) research getting into real world products is the most important one. Because if they can make their machines 5 times better, which management has said was "easy" it should be pretty obvious that they will sell more machines
I have been using the figure of "8 years from lab to fab" from general observations but have no idea whether it really applies to Arcam. Fastebm is only the first of several research projects. I also make the assumption that much (most?) of the research will not work out in mass production.
Because if EBM machines are on the verge of getting even 2 or 3 times faster/cheaper/more reliable/more accurate (take your choice) this is a real inflection point. Because they are making money even with present machines.
Part of Motley Fool problem with Arcam and metal 3DP is that they picked Exone (XONE) as an investment in 3DP.
A very poor choice showing IMHO a lack of research on the subject, Because since then the stock has plummeted.I thought at the time, and think now, that Exone will be lucky to even survive.. My opinion was based on the clumsy multi step process they used, but I have forgotten the details.
Motley Fool choices are made by humans just like us. And like us they make lots of mistakes.
In the case case of MF their biggest mistake often is an unwillingness to sell despite deteriorating industry or company circumstances.
RE Arcam competition -
I think the main problem is not lasers based AM, but getting the idea of AM into brains of people who have based their whole careers on SM. So the real competitor is tradition .
Few analysts have made the conceptual leap needed to realize that metal 3DP is it's own market and technology , really having little to do with 3DP in plastic.
The outlook for DDD has virtually nothing to do with Arcam.
HP can't even design ink printer heads that do not clog.
It was with great pleasure that I sent my last HP inkjet to the junkyard., replaced by laser printers (not made by HP)
T , look a recent Arcam patents. They now use the word s "energy beam" which clearly includes laser (photon) beams as well as electron beams.
We all know that production by SLM will give better product qualities than production by EBM.
(accuracy and Surface finish)
Surface finish is only important if the part is visible Maybe not even then - ever look at the surface of some castings?. Accuracy? maybe EBM is good enough
In any case EBM can work in materials like TiAl where laser tech simply won't work .
Most of the time I see the big problem being one of getting engineers and designers to thinking terms of AM where complexity is free. Most of the time not direct competition between electrons and photons.
($702,000 USD) from the EU's Regional Development Fund to build a laboratory for the powder bed with an electron beam as the heat source (EBM). that is another free gift to Arcam, because Arcam not only has lock in patents but has trade secrets. Only Arcam can do EBM
Maybe I am just an optimist but I believe at least some of these millions of dollars being spent on EBM research will yield some tangible results. In time, probably 5 - 10 years..
I know governments waste enormous sums of money on useless projects but they are usually vote buying projects and I don't see many votes being bought with this one.
So I assume that scientists knowledgable in EBM see it as paying off.
I don't think LEAP makes much difference to Arcam in the longer run, say 4 to 6 years. They are making money withoutL EAP and the EBM technology will be improved.
The fates that EBM can do things (complexity is free) and with materials(Titanium aluminide) that can not be done any other way.
A friend had a recent hip replacement. The titanium implants were chosen from several on hand, probably not an exact fit They are not custom made.. The part of the implant roughed up to allow bone regrowth was laughably poor compared to what could be made by EBM. The femoral implant was solid when hollow structures are stronger and lighter- there is a reason the weight bearing part of our bones is a tube shape
EBM implants would be much better.
Stocks prices fluctuate for reasons unconnected to the company itself. Look what the present market correction is doing to AMAVF. Sometimes within the above next 3 to 5 years we will have a full fledged bear market.Today these events are interconnected, all stock markets domestic and foreign will fall. And AMAVF will be cheaper.
Even weakness Swedish currency won't matter much because it lowers there production costs. Almost every country in the world is engaged in this race to the bottom against the US dollar. While the weak Swedish currency helps them sell machines cheaper it also means raw materials from abroad cost more. When lots of machines are out there raw materials (powdered titanium) will be an ever more important profit source . Especially since I expect Arcam to improve the technology and quality of the powder- the existing cartel will not innovate, they are mainly interested in sales for use in paints etc. AM is a small market.
Long term I doubt if Arcam will stay Swedish since Sweden is too far from markets..
"how long to commercialization "
the rule of thumb for most complex products is about 8 years, lab to fab. For full mass production add another year or so. For aircraft for medical parts add another year or more for certification. Probably 99% of these ideas never make it to production.
If this uses a binder. maybe not too unlike Exone.. Any binder occupies a physical space. Burned off. that space is empty, leading to porous parts. Also to sinter titanium alloys require a lot of heat and must be done in a gas free (especially oxygen) atmosphere. Sintered parts are not full strength, full melting is usually required for that.
Once a metal working technique is established it may serve niche markets for a long time . Lost wax casting has been around since King Tut.
EBM is likely to remain a niche product, lasers are fine for most products. But that EBM niche could be very large , hundreds or thousands of times larger than it is now. And since EBM is a far more immature technology than laser based AM, I expect it to improve faster than laser based tech. EBM is in at the start of the second inning IMHO.
It might be a lot easier for Arcam to find the personal they need in a big country like the US rather than a small country like Sweden. If Arcam continues to grow it will outgrow Sweden as the prime design snd manufacturing base.
So 3 years a Swedish based company but in 5 or 6 years?
With a little thinking ahead, small parts can be 3DP in the gaps between large parts. On the same powder bed.
english version of that SLM report
http://stage.slm-solutions.com/index.php?cn_20160106_en
notably absent are the words "earnings " and "profit"
Selling more gizmos does not help if you lose money on each one
SLM sales up, but what about actual earnings?
I like companies increasing both,.
re sales--
I suspect a mild case of the Osborne Syndrome is at work.
It seems to me that big machine improvements based on Fast EBM ( and other research projects) can't be far off. The Arcam CEO did say it was "easy"
If I was a potential customer who could wait, I probably would.
I can only under why top management at DDD thought there would be a huge market for a $999 device that could do so little. And only in plastic.
.A quick search online or a trip to the local hardware would be a lot cheaper. And easier. For most potential customers. The whole idea that the general public would rush to buy such complex expensive and mostly useless devices was a chimera. But the stock market bought the idea , at least for a while.
Since GE ,P&W and RR represent a small oligopoly of large jet engine makers they probably get along OK. None is a real threat to the others. They may concentrate on blocking outsiders
..We can see the result of a new entrant in the aerospace business with Space X undercutting a cartel. Rockets are mostly government funded and thus a happy hunting round for a duopoly or oligopoly. Airlines might be tougher customers.
The reason for my relocation is that I will focus more on the US market where options, growth potentials and strategic opportunities are huge. There are several major players in the aerospace and orthopaedics industries on the US east coast."
I think that is the reason, just like he said.
Sweden is a little country on the edge of Europe far from it's major market. That has been one of my major worries about Arcam. He can talk on the phone if there are problems but it will take him a long time to get from Sweden to Seattle .Or almost anywhere else in the USA.
This is good news ,not bad news.
It shows he is willing to do hands on leadership and uproot his personal life for the good of Arcam The "formal" headquarters will remain in Sweden, but decisions will be made where most of the the buyers are close at hand.
A quick search indicates it is 6.5 hours by air from Boston to Paris, 2 non stop, and nearly the same time or more from Stockholm to Paris ,most of these flights involving a stop over
.Besides it's warmer here- the high for Christmas day is supposed to be 73 Degrees F here in middle Tennessee
Titanium powder must not be too expensive if they can use it in white paint.
But quality Ti powder , good enough for EBM, probably is another matter. I have long said that EBM grade Ti powder is so small a market that most makers won't put any research into methodology. So Arcam is going to have to do it all. Which they are doing. But Arcam machine users will want additional supply sources so they won't wind up like ink jet printer users.