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3 years with no trading is a fact, (Not speculation) and no amount of Journals copied here can change that.
exaggerated claims couched as questions (?? wags) is just puffery
Quotes from "The Board's" letter:
" The Board believes that, overall, the dismissal of the litigation and related transactions are in the best
interest of the Corporation and its stockholders. "
" While there are limitations on what the Board and the Corporation can disclose, we wish to give you a
meaningful update. "
" On November 30, 2023, after years of litigation, all parties to the litigation filed a request for the
complete dismissal of the all claims and cross-claims in the litigation. It is anticipated the California court will
formally dismiss the entire case, with prejudice. A case dismissed “with prejudice” cannot be tried again. "
No amount of Pseudo Scientific blather can change this. 3 years no trading
Absolutely right.
you are Right. However, it was my Understanding that this (suit) was the stumbling block to getting some sort of outside funding. So now we shall see whether or not that was true
So the "Board" issued a statement officially confirming the (already known) status of the LA case.
My understanding is that this was the only legal proceeding involving VCSY and NOW.
"Transocean Bags Rig Contract for Romania's Neptun Deep"
https://www.rigzone.com/news/transocean_bags_rig_contract_for_romanias_neptun_deep-14-dec-2023-175053-article/
He's arguing with people who never heard the saying "a little learning is a dangerous thing" and I use the term "little" loosely
(Alexander Pope)
Nice. Pretty upbeat
"EIA Revises Permian Oil Outlook"
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/EIA-Revises-Permian-Oil-Outlook.html
If the Marginal cost for the effort is < then the monthly/annual salary
"Iran’s Proposed Embargo Could Cause Chaos In Oil Markets"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Irans-Proposed-Embargo-Could-Cause-Chaos-In-Oil-Markets.html
"A Less Hawkish Fed Could Jumpstart The Oil Price Rally"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/A-Less-Hawkish-Fed-Could-Jumpstart-The-Oil-Price-Rally.html
"While Transocean endured another quarter of losses, the company doesn’t need to be haunted by ghosts of quarters past, as a robust market plus increasing rig counts and day rates point to a successful fourth quarter and 2024.
The company suffered from a loss in revenue in the third quarter, but Transocean argues that the company is not in the grave but in the early stages of a multi-year upcycle.
“With our fleet of the most capable high-specification ultra-deepwater drillships and harsh environment semisubmersibles, Transocean is uniquely positioned to capitalize on current and future opportunities,” CEO Jeremy Thigpen said in a press release."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/despite-spooky-start-transocean-walking-170500331.html
Prior to the opening of the markets and any trading the "Day's Gain" (in your account) is negative. Upon further review the source of that is the VCSY position, it has been given a value equal to it's cost basis instead of a value equal to # of shares times its current price (zero)
At this point I'm assuming it's the cost basis
E-Trade has started posting it in your portfolio total as a complete loss (negative value, instead of having zero value). I wonder if this is the first step towards removal.
Earnings Call transcript: Also Benchmark Co. issued a "Buy" target $12
"Contract with Petrobras was particularly important as it facilitated the acquisition of the outstanding interest in our joint venture Liquila Ventures Limited through which we assumed full ownership of the Deepwater Aquila. Transocean now owns and with the commencement of the Achilles, contract will operate eight of the 12 globally competitive 1400 short ton hook load dual activity, ultra-deepwater drillships in the world. The acquisition of the Achilles is consistent with our strategy of continuously hydrating our fleet. A strategy which has proven very effective, particularly over the last 18 to 24 months as we have secured market leading day rates with these high-specification assets.
As an example, since the fourth quarter of 2022, our ultra-deepwater fleet average day rate has increased by approximately 33% to $416,000 per day. By the third quarter of 2024. Based upon current firm backlog, we expect this average rate to increase to $437,000 per day. Based upon the status of discussions with customers, we expect that the Transocean bearings will be contracted for new work starting in mid to late 2024 until initially late 2026 and the Deepwater Skyros will be similarly committed until early to mid 2025.
Details of these prospects will be forthcoming assuming execution of fully binding customer commitments. Not only did we have significant backlog over the past several quarters, but we also substantially lengthened contracting term during this period. In April of 2022, 12 of our rigs were contracted for durations greater than 12 months. Six were contracted for greater than 24 months and only five were contracted for more than 36 months.
By comparison, today, 17 of our rigs are contracted for durations greater than 12 months, a 42% increase, 15 are contracted for greater than 24 months, a 150% increase, and 13 are contracted for more than 36 months, a 160% increase of our 2023 contracted backlog. Just over 80% now consists of programs of more than one year in duration. Another clear indication that our customers believe in the longevity of this upcycle and in the capability of Transocean. The significant increase in contract commitments is reflected in the size of our industry leading backlog from the beginning of 2022 to the present, we have added approximately $6.8 billion in backlog.
When building our backlog, maximizing EBITDA and associated margins remains our goal and these data points clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of our long-standing asset strategy and portfolio management approach to placing our assets on contracts of appropriate and meaningful value. We take decisions that make the most economic sense for the company and our shareholders. It means that at times we may seek the highest day rate possible for a specific asset or job, a consequence of which may be that we accept short periods of idle time on individual assets. In other instances, we may determine that maintaining high utilization has the optimal long term financial impact, meaning that we fix an asset at prevailing or otherwise acceptable market rates for a longer duration.
Securing high-quality backlog, meaningful EBITDA generation and longer-term visibility to future cash flows as reflected in their budget processes. Our customers continue to be disciplined in their allocation of capital. The result of this behavior is exhibited in the lumpiness of the timing of contract awards. We have observed over the last couple of years.
We expect this trend to continue. Our sizable backlog in portfolio approach to fixing our assets minimizes our exposure to this natural ebb and flow of customer activity while best ensuring we achieve the best margin possible. Notwithstanding the timing of announced contracting activity, our customers are securing rigs for longer and longer duration and for programs expected to commence well into the future. This is evidenced by the increase in average contract award lead times, which have increased significantly since 2021.
Drillship contracting lead times have increased by approximately 53% to 319 days and semi-submersible contracting lead times have increased approximately 38% to 284 days. The number of global floater opportunities continues to expand reflecting very strong demand and further encouraging our view of the longer-term sustainability of this cycle. Indeed, overall demand remains on the rise with 84 years of activity expected to be awarded for 77 discrete programs starting in 18 months. Looking closer at each region, the U.S.
Gulf of Mexico continues to be defined by direct negotiations with our customers with operators engaging contractors of choice for specific opportunities. We see a steady stream of demand for short-term programs with independent operators amid a solid market with a limited supply of high-specification and ultra-deepwater assets. Notably, we are engaged in discussions for follow on work for the Deepwater Atlas upon completion of its current contract and are already having conversations with numerous customers regarding additional 20 programs, many of which are not expected to start for up to three years. Once again, demonstrating our customers belief in a prolonged upcycle.
The Invictus is currently competing for multiple local campaigns, including one which we believe will require a high hook load, seventh-generation Drillship, the available supply of which is very limited. We are also actively marketing the inspiration in various jurisdictions around the world. As you well know, Brazil continues to be a source of strong demand and based upon open tenders, we expect the active rig count to continue to decline over the next 12 months from the 29 rigs operating today. Over the past year, there have been 27 awards made in Brazil, 18 rigs already in country, and nine that brought new rigs into the country.
Between the open tenders including [Inaudible], [Inaudible], and BM-C-33, They're expected to be another eight rig awards which should require two incremental rigs from outside of Brazil. This brings the addition of non-Brazilian rigs to 11 since the cycle began. Furthermore, it's widely expected that more tenders in 2024 will keep all of the incumbent rigs busy, and pending exploration success could demand a further call on the global market to add yet more rigs to Brazil. Clearly, Brazil is set to remain a pivotal long-term consumer of ultra-deepwater rigs with active rig count expected to reach at least 36 in, 2024, 2025.
Just by fulfilling today's known tenders across the Atlantic, we see an excess of 20 opportunities scattered throughout Africa and the Mediterranean. Commencing in the next 18 months. For the first time in nearly a decade, Nigeria following its national election is showing significant signs of revival. We expect between two and four long-term programs to be tendered over the next six months including three from international oil companies in Angola, Chevron, Exxon, and other large operators have a mixture of short and multi-year opportunities currently expected to commence in 2024.
Additionally, Namibia may require more rigs as TotalEnergies has confirmed future development. While Chevron Shell have programs expected to be awarded in 2024, The Namibian Ministry of Mines and Energy recently confirmed that projects requiring as many as five rigs are set to commence in 2024. And finally, in Mozambique, we expect tenders for both TotalEnergies [Inaudible]in the coming months. In Australia, regulatory requirements continue to drive demand for plug-in abandonment work.
Additionally, several operators have indicated interest in securing rigs for additional multi-year programs. At this point, we anticipate formal tenders will be released in 2024 and expect our two rigs currently active in the region to be competitive for these tenders following their existing programs. As such, we expect both the Transocean Endurance and Transmission to remain in country for the foreseeable future. There have also been promising developments elsewhere in the Eastern Hemisphere.
We anticipate that will soon require a rig for follow on development for its recent discovery in the Thai basin. In Indonesia, I also has an open tender for approximately 18 months of work in multiple countries in the region and in Malaysia. We expect PTTEP and Petronas will come to market in the near future for an ultra-deepwater drillship with a commencement in 2024. Finally, we expect the high-specification harsh environment market to remain tight as active supply in Norway is now fully utilized in large part due to the departure of numerous rigs to other markets.
As witnessed recently in a couple of public announcements, many incremental programs will require operators in Norway to mobilize rigs from other regions. And since many, if not all, of the recently departed rigs, will likely continue their active utilization outside of the Norwegian market. We expect this region to remain tight for the foreseeable future. In addition to the fact that our customers are fixing contracts with start date two years in the future, the broader fundamentals also support our views of a sustained industry recovery beyond the 18-month time horizon.
Rystad recently reported that oil inventories in developed countries are approximately 115 million barrels below their five-year average, while the International Energy Agency reported global crude stocks have also fallen to their lowest level since 2017. Meanwhile, the IEA forecasts increasing oil demand through 2028, while OPEC projects a steady increase through at least 2045. These predictions are supported by population and GDP growth projections, particularly for developing nations where renewable infrastructure is in its infancy. We continue to believe that much of new hydrocarbon development will come from deep water basins as these have consistently shown to yield superior investment returns and produce some of the lowest carbon intensity barrels available today.
Reliable third-party analysis suggests upstream offshore capex will increase materially over the next several years, crossing $200 billion next year and reaching 234 billion by the end of 2027. In summary, our outlook for a prolonged offshore deepwater drilling recovery remains firm and we will continue to manage our rig portfolio to maximize value. As always, we will continue to place paramount importance on the safe and flawless execution of our operations to minimize the conversion to maximize the conversion. In this regard, our performance is truly a team effort and I extend a sincere thank you to the entire transition team for their commitment every day to provide safe, reliable, and efficient operations."
looks like Utilization rates was the culprit here:
Here is how Transocean performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts:
Utilization - Total fleet average rig utilization: 49.4% versus the three-analyst average estimate of 58%.
Utilization - Ultra-Deepwater Floaters: 45% compared to the 55% average estimate based on three analysts.
Average Daily Revenue - Harsh Environment Floaters: $357.4 thousand versus the three-analyst average estimate of $290.05 thousand.
Average Daily Revenue - Total fleet average daily revenue: $391.3 thousand versus the three-analyst average estimate of $345.79 thousand.
Average Daily Revenue - Ultra Deepwater Floaters: $406.5 thousand compared to the $372.73 thousand average estimate based on three analysts.
Utilization - Harsh Environment Floaters: 63% versus the three-analyst average estimate of 65.1%.
Contract drilling revenues- Ultra-Deepwater Floaters: $516 million compared to the $519.87 million average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of +19.2% year over year.
Contract drilling revenues- Harsh Environment Floaters: $197 million compared to the $195.72 million average estimate based on three analysts. The reported number represents a change of -23.6% year over year.
Less than impressive. (unfortunately)
"American Oil Giants Boost Domestic Footprint As Geopolitical Tensions Mount"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/American-Oil-Giants-Boost-Domestic-Footprint-As-Geopolitical-Tensions-Mount.html
"Toyota’s Solid-State Battery Boasts 745 Miles On A 10 Minute Charge"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Toyotas-Solid-State-Battery-Boasts-745-Miles-On-A-10-Minute-Charge.html
thought you might find this interesting:
"Toyota’s Solid-State Battery Boasts 745 Miles On A 10 Minute Charge
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Toyotas-Solid-State-Battery-Boasts-745-Miles-On-A-10-Minute-Charge.html
Transocean RIG is set to release third-quarter results on Oct 30. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at a loss of 22 cents per share on revenues of $738.2 million.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the offshore driller’s performance in the aforementioned quarter. However, it’s worth taking a look at RIG’s prior-quarter results first.
Highlights of Q2 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the Switzerland-based rig supplier missed the consensus mark due to lower contributions from Harsh Environment floaters. Transocean had reported an adjusted loss per share of 15 cents, 3 cents wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 12 cents. However, revenues of $748 million beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $724 million on the back of more days of work for RIG’s vessels.
The company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and beat the mark in one, delivering an average negative surprise of 53.22%.
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings has moved down 4.5% in the past seven days. This indicates a 266.7% decline year over year. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a 1.1% increase from that recorded in the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Transocean is expected to have been hurt by a drop in utilization. As a reflection of the tepidness in the drilling landscape, our estimate for the third-quarter average utilization is pegged at 54.3%, down 5.1% year over year on the back of lukewarm activity. This might have impacted RIG’s revenues and cash flows.
Also, an increase in the company’s costs must have dented its bottom line. Going by our model, RIG’s total costs and expenses are likely to have gone up 21.6% year over year to $772.2 million in the third quarter. The upward cost trajectory could be attributed to the ongoing inflationary environment and tight labor market.
On a somewhat positive note, our model forecasts revenue efficiency of an impressive 96.5% in the to-be-reported quarter. This is an indication of minimal loss of revenues due to downtime and Transocean’s superior efficiency in translating its industry-leading backlog of $9.4 billion into cash.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Transocean this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
Thanks. That is a good summary. Hopefully 10/30 will give us a boost on the PPS and an optimistic outlook going forward.( turning the backlog in current revenue)
The only thing I can get out of this FSR is that they have added .2 Billion to backlog
Well hopefully: Increasing day rates, increasing revenue and decreasing debt. With a positive outlook going forward. (Sharpening the slope of the trend line)
"U.S. Oil Drillers Add 4 Rigs, Brent Crude Hits $90"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Drillers-Add-4-Rigs-Brent-Crude-Hits-90.html
Nasdaq is down 100 & change
"On October 11, 2023, in connection with the closing of the previously announced offering by Transocean
Aquila Limited (the “Issuer”), a wholly owned indirect subsidiary of Transocean Ltd. (the “Company”), of
U.S. $325 million in aggregate principal amount of 8.000% Senior Secured Notes due 2028 (the “Notes”),
the Issuer entered into an indenture (the “Indenture”) with the Company, Transocean Inc. (“TINC”) and
Transocean DWA Limited (“TDWA” and, together with TINC and the Company, the “Guarantors”), and
Truist Bank, as trustee and collateral agent.
The terms of the Notes are governed by the Indenture, which contains covenants that, among other things,
(i) limit the activities of the Issuer, the owner of the collateral rig (which, as of the date hereof, is TDWA)
and certain operators of the collateral rig, (ii) limit the ability of TINC and its subsidiaries to incur liens and
engage in certain sale and lease-back transactions, (iii) limit the ability of TINC’s subsidiaries to incur
indebtedness and (iv) limit the ability of the Issuer and the Guarantors to consolidate, merge or enter into a
scheme of arrangement qualifying as an amalgamation. The Indenture also contains customary events of
default. Indebtedness under the Notes may be accelerated in certain circumstances upon an event of default
as set forth in the Indenture.
The Notes are secured by a lien on the Deepwater Aquila and certain other assets related to the rig. The
Notes are fully and unconditionally guaranteed, jointly and severally, by the Guarantors on a senior basis.
The Notes have not been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities
Act”), or under any state securities laws, and were offered only to qualified institutional buyers under Rule
144A promulgated under the Securities Act and outside the United States in compliance with Regulation S
promulgated under the Securities Act."
https://investor.deepwater.com/static-files/aab0d10d-bb6f-4ada-88e9-96c1a8f508df
"SPRING and IRVING, Texas – Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) jointly announced a definitive agreement for ExxonMobil to acquire Pioneer. The merger is an all-stock transaction valued at $59.5 billion, or $253 per share, based on ExxonMobil’s closing price on October 5, 2023. Under the terms of the agreement, Pioneer shareholders will receive 2.3234 shares of ExxonMobil for each Pioneer share at closing. The implied total enterprise value of the transaction, including net debt, is approximately $64.5 billion."
looks like they are trading stock for debt. I guess we will see these results in the 4th quarter or we can estimate their effects in the upcoming results.
It would be nice to get the stock price higher to retire more debt for less shares
Press reports put it at around 60 billion. I think PXD has about 233 million shares outstanding. If my math is correct that would put it at about 259-260 per share, but like most things no one knows for sure until the offer is made public
The entire piece sounds good. Especially the optimistic assessment of the debt load. If it continues to trend in a positive direction (debt going down) I can see it going up by a lot. There are 2 positive things happening simultaneously. Revenue going up (increasing day rates and backlog) and debt going down. As long as that continues, we will be fine. Of course, all that has to continue. Good luck to us
Hopefully this works:
Transocean: May Soar By 200% In The Next 36 Months
Oct. 03, 2023 5:26 AM ETTransocean Ltd. (RIG)NE, VAL22 Comments
Anna Sokolidou profile picture
Anna Sokolidou
Summary
Transocean's stock is struggling to break through the $9 resistance line, but could reach double digits this year.
New drilling contracts and rising oil prices are positive indicators for offshore drillers.
The current conditions for offshore drillers suggest an upcycle.
Night Time Offshore Oil Rig Drilling and Fracking Operation, Brightly Lit, on Calm Seas
grandriver
Transocean (NYSE:RIG)'s stock is struggling to get past the $9 resistance line. But if everything goes the way it is going now, then the stock may trade well in the double digits as soon as this year. In fact, some analysts expect the stock price to triple in the next 36 months. New drilling contracts are announced, and the oil prices are high and seem to be growing.
New contracts
Here are a few quotes from the company's earnings conference where Jeremy Thigpen, Transocean's CEO, summarizes the contract awards of the past quarter.
"First in the Gulf of Mexico, we signed an agreement with a major operator for two years on the Deepwater Conqueror and direct continuation of the current program at a leading edge rate of $440,000 per day,... adding approximately $321 million in firm backlog..."
"In Norway, Equinor exercised two one-well options on the Spitsbergen at a rate of $305,000 per day, extending the current firm term through June 2023." With Equinor another contract was signed "at a rate of $335,000 per day commencing October 2023".
In the UK a contract was signed at a rate of $175,000 per day, adding approximately $17.5 million to the company's backlog. "If all options are exercised, this will keep the rig busy through April 2024."
So far, Brazil's day rates seem to be the best. "Down in Brazil, the Deepwater Mykonos was awarded a 435-day contract at a rate of approximately $364,000 per day... Also in Brazil..., the Petrobras 10,000 received a 5.8-year contract at $399,000 per day escalating annually to $462,000 per day..." This "adds an estimated $915 million to our backlog".
"In India, Reliance Industries awarded an estimated 86 day contract extension plus up to four option wells for the KG1 at a local market-leading rate of $330,000 per day... And if all options are exercised, the campaign will extend through April 2024..."
In total, approximately $1.3 billion in backlog was added since the release of RIG's fleet status report.
So, from this release, we can clearly see that the contracts were concluded at reasonably high rates and in different regions of operation. But most importantly in the past quarter alone $1.3 billion in new backlog was added, which is really substantial. Soon after the earnings conference call, two more contracts were announced. The first one was the $222M ultra-deepwater drillship contract awarded by Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. for the Dhirubhai Deepwater KG1 for work offshore India. The second one was a $486M contract for the Deepwater Aquila drillship. All this signals a clear improvement in Transocean's business activity.
In addition to the new contracts announced, the company also issued some debt. Transocean Aquila Limited, Transocean's wholly owned indirect subsidiary, commenced a private offering of $300M of senior secured notes due 2028. In other words, RIG had to borrow money to afford Aquila, the new build. But I do not think the debt load increase will be that significant.
Debt history
In order to have a better idea of Transocean's debt situation, let us have a look at the company's debt history. The data were obtained from Morning Star's website.
Transocean debt
Morning Star
If we have a look at Transocean's total liabilities, these were substantially lower in 2Q 2023 compared to the year 2020. As concerns the company's total debt, it has been falling since 2020. So, the general picture seems to be improving. Even if the debt load rises by $300 million, nothing horrible will happen, it seems. Not to mention that Aquila, the new asset, will generate cash flows and revenues.
Growth potential
Transocean has been criticized for having too many cold-stacked rigs. But it does not mean these cold-stacked rigs will have to be recycled. Rather the opposite is true. The company is deploying its cold-stacked rigs by bidding them on open tenders or through direct negotiations. Transocean has 10 cold-stacked ultra-deepwater rigs and 1 harsh environment semisubmersible. Interestingly, 8 of these vessels are highly demanded sixth- and seventh-generation drillships. Globally, there are just 12 of these cold-stacked vessels and 4 stranded new builds that are now owned by anyone.
The market for offshore drilling equipment is currently far too tight, whilst it takes years to construct an ultra-deepwater ship and also plenty of money investments. Even if we assume the budget to reactivate a deepwater or an ultra-deepwater drillship is above $75-125 million, it will still be substantially lower compared to the amount of money used to construct say the new 7th generation drillship Deepwater Aquila. So, apart from the warm-stacked or active rigs, cold-stacked drillships can still potentially be reactivated and used to generate cash flows and revenues. According to one of the recent Transocean presentations, buying and activating a stranded shipyard asset could result in an investment of $300 - $500 million, substantially more than any reactivation of any cold-stacked ship.
Oil prices
In my recent article, I wrote quite a bullish prediction for the oil prices this coming winter. The fossil fuel markets in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere in general are very tight and more is yet to come, it seems. I absolutely agree that offshore drillers invest for the long term. Seasonal oil price fluctuations are not a very good reason to invest in costly offshore exploration, of course. However, if the oil markets remain tight, the supply stays low, and green energy sources do not manage to become a perfect alternative to fossil fuels in the next several years, then oil majors will keep investing in offshore drilling, whilst signing new contracts with Transocean.
The latest data out of Cushing, Oklahoma, the US major oil storage hub once again showed a steep drop in inventories. Once again investors were reminded of the tight global supply. In fact, crude has soared by about 40% over the past three months. This summer was really bullish for oil. Not only are Saudi Arabia and Russia willing to cut the supply. Inventory levels in Cushing have decreased by almost 50% since June. So, they are now at less than 23 million barrels. This is close to the operational minimum. But if the storage levels fall below 20 million barrels, the oil can become difficult to remove, which will again add to oil market deficits. According to Investing Group Leader HFI Research, "U.S. crude storage will not build during refinery maintenance season in October". So, the only bearish factor is demand destruction, which is not happening right now.
I agree that "this too shall pass". After all, higher inflation readings can lead to further rate hikes by the Fed and other central banks. Moreover, as I have mentioned before, Transocean's business benefits from long-term demand. However, there is a correlation between RIG's stock price and the oil prices.
Chart
Data by YCharts
At the same time, in my opinion, the company's stock price is currently trading quite low compared to the oil prices.
Chart
Data by YCharts
This is explainable, of course. After all, before the 2014-2015 crisis, RIG used to have a larger fleet, higher revenues, and cash flows. But still, there could be some growth potential, given the current situation.
Technical analysis
Transocean's stock has been on the rise in the last several years. You can say that all rallies eventually pass. But it seems that the momentum is really strong for this stock. If you just draw the trend line assuming that the wider recovery of the offshore drilling sector continues, you will see that the stock price will be well in the double digits by 2024 or at the beginning of 2024 at the latest.
Transocean's technical analysis
Investing.com
Fundamental analysis is much more superior to any trend following. Anything can happen. For example, no one knew back in 2019 that the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting lockdowns would drive the oil prices to negative values. But if everything goes the way it is currently going, then we can see RIG in the double digits by 2024.
Valuations
If we see Transocean's current valuation multiples, we will see that they are at multi-year highs.
RIG stock valuations
Morning Star
However, they are still not extremely high if we compare these to the S&P 500's averages. For example, the S&P 500's average P/S (price-to-sales) ratio is currently standing at 2.39, whilst RIG's P/S is 2.31. S&P 500's price-to-cash flow ratio is 15.32, whilst Transocean's is less than 12. Yes, most S&P 500 companies are currently profitable but RIG is expected to report a sound net profit next year.
Risks
The risks are clear. First, as I have mentioned many times before, this is the likelihood the Fed and other central banks would raise the interest rates, thus provoking a full-scale recession. Then, the oil supply situation may change. The OPEC+ may start extracting more oil, whilst US oil majors may also do the same. After all, all rallies end.
You might also say that Transocean is not free of debt and is overvalued. But paradoxically in an upcycle, this is the company's big advantage. In other words, RIG's stock is more sensitive to any good announcements because it is more speculative than its peers - Valaris (VAL), Noble (NE) - that have emerged from bankruptcy and are now almost free of debt.
So, the most important thing now for Transocean is the continuation of an upcycle, I think.
Conclusion
Transocean is in a very good situation, it seems. The oil market is tight and is highly likely to stay so in the near future. New contracts get announced, and the debt load is not as high as it was in 2020. RIG is expected to report a sound net profit in 2024. The stock has a very strong momentum too. In my view, the biggest risks are that of a prolonged recession and a supply glut. In my view, however, the increase of 200% in the next 36 months may not be too farfetched. RIG stock may trade in the double digits as early as 2024.
"Why Institutional Traders Started Selling Oil And Fuel Futures"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Institutional-Traders-Started-Selling-Oil-And-Fuel-Futures.html
Another offshore endorsement:
"“The offshore market is demonstrating a sustained resurgence as operators across the world look to accelerate development cycle times and increase the productivity of their offshore assets,” said SLB Chief Executive Officer Olivier Le Peuch"
Really talking up RIG on CNBC right now
I wonder if this is tied to their investment into Global Sea Mineral Resources NV (“GSR”)
Given Transocean's business, it seems reasonable to invest in AI enhanced autonomous undersea equipment with an annual return on investment of 12.5%. I see this as a positive step. They also must feel comfortable with their current debt situation to make this investment.
Loaning money To "Nauticus" ticker KITT
"All obligations under the Loans are secured by a first priority lien on substantially all assets of the Company. The outstanding principal amount of the Loans under the Term Loan Agreement will bear interest at the rate of 12.50% per annum, payable quarterly in arrears on the first day of each calendar quarter commencing April 1, 2024. The Loans are coterminous with the Company's existing convertible debt (the “Debentures”), which now holds a second lien position, as disclosed in the Amendment to Securities Purchase Agreement, Senior Secured Convertible Debentures and Pledge and Security Agreement."
Nauticus Robotics, Inc. is a developer of ocean robots, autonomy software, and services delivered to the marine industries. It offers autonomous robots using artificial intelligence for data collection and intervention services for the ocean industries. The Company’s autonomous robots use artificial intelligence for data collection and intervention services for the ocean industries. Its services provide customers with the necessary data collection, analytics, and subsea manipulation capabilities. The Company’s product platforms include ToolKITT, Aquanaut, Hydronaut, and. ToolKITT is a cloud software platform consisting of interrelated products for ocean sensing, manipulation, autonomous behaviors, survey, search and recovery, and manual intervention. It develops a portfolio of ocean robotic vehicles and manipulators controlled by its multi-layered software suite. This software provides sensed perception of the environment combined with guidance, navigation, and control of the vehicle."