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S2, With 22 little 3 and 4 year olds running around you know that you'll have a time to remember. At least it'll be easy to "oversee", but you still can't take a thing for granted. And then suddenly, out of nowhere ... has an all new memory. Sounds like a tremendous time for all. Enjoy!
I'd read about when they were approving the 3X ETFs and had spoke with a few guys about them. I've been into the 2X Proshares. The QQQ hadn't had a 3X made the last I looked. It may be out soon or just did. I've been a bit shy of anything dealing with banks for some time. Been a bit shy with anything long as well. The short 2X ETFs are so easy to enter as you've no need to secure shares to short. Uncertain as to how the return of the up tick rule will effect them. They can change that uptick back now that they've already ran it into the dirt. Isn't that why they removed it? Saw FASB 157 and knew that DOW 14k was going to be a fleeting glimpse. Remove uptick. The whole removal of Glass/Steagal and removal of uptick rule seems as orchestrated as Bernie Madoff's empire. Cox, Greenspan and Rubin should spend more than a weekend with Bernie, IMO.
With all the head fakes and moves in the markets seeking price levels, we could have some moves into this op ex. Probably not enough to break the trend. I'll watch JPM and $VIX on a rally. If JPM is not there in the rally? JPM is a large part of the BKX and that has to be for anything to stay. The BKX rising from the basement and small caps ahead of the big guys looks good. Good enough that '09 "might" be a good trade year. Keep in mind that LIBOR and CDS were freezing up again to levels of incidence last week. Bears may not be done as of let.
S2, Happy B-day to the girls from the board! Ya still have a few years 'till the prom, but it'll be here before you know it. GL
Thx for the heads up on TNA. I've been doing some of the other ETFs. Mostly DDM/DXD. Some SSO and UWM runs if/when the move is long. I can't stay overnite in the markets of late. Fleeting moments of exposure and it seems that if I stay too long all the profits go back. Nuts, but it's moving.
later, bbq
sungolfer,
That triangle is showing up in almost everything. The NDX, RUT, SPX, DOW and institutional. Marty is pointing out that positions are dangerous, especially short. Until that buying that came in Wednesday late, I thought they would take it down to reach previous low on a spike down at open. Similar to what they did recently. The banks WERE in positions to look for that triangle break to be South, but they are starting to get some things worked out already. The clearing the desks of LEH and the CDO swaps were big. Inflation being checked a bit with the commodity deflate opens the door for $Ben to cut rates to help economy. The DXY has been in run away mode and could blow off quick, but it's actually distracting driving by a gas station and seeing $2.23 at the pump. A major food chain in the area cuts a 10/15¢ discount after you spend $100 that month. That's pushing on breaking $2 a gal. That'll be significant to the transports. Effecting everything.
It's a tough dangerous call on which way things will shift very shortly, but with OIL and $Ben dropping along with the help that the financials have gotten as they rework the garbage could yield a very sudden rebound. The spread between institutional buying and selling has been slowly closing, but foreign selling has resulted in market pressure. Add in a heavy short position looking for sub 8k that could add to a big move and all of the money that's been pulled and is looking for a home. Will that be real estate, bonds or equities that are on sale?
Tough call on whether it blows up on the pad or launches.
Will Oct kill the bear?
peace,
Yeah, I felt too much too fast. Have read some points of this drop hit resistance and bounced. Author is unknown if meltdown continues or possible strong bounce. A bit of money came into the market in the last hour Monday. I think the boys will give a bounce. Wall Street needs to keep the street filled with sheep.
peace,
9525 close enough? I stepped into QLD, UWM and DDM at DOW 9550-9575. SSO still has too many banks for me to go there. I'm not at all sure that we've set a bottom, yet. Those 2X Index Ultras rock when you get them moving for you.
poor,
Might keep a tight stop. We could see DOW 9.5k or even break lower albeit not in a straight line. I thought about some UWM AH, but think that we should get a bit more selling to follow. The long ProShare Ultras, UWM, DDM, QLD, SSO are looking to be on sale all week. They have volume and move even when the market is sitting still.
You queried as to whether a possible repurchase of SSO @ $63 was in the cards this year. I guess the question is whether it'll return to $63? Yet alone $70s, or it's highs ... for a while.
Option ARM resets are going to get heavier 4/09 thru 12/12 and the amount is more than sub-prime with them weighted in California. That's probably not the best place for these mortgage adjustments to be made because of the differences in note and value. I wonder where interest rates will be? If $Ben, who's claim of having been a great study of the US depression and Japanese meltdown, takes the Dollar the route of the Yen, will that put the greenback in a carry trade swap like the Japanese have enjoyed for some years? Will this pinch enough baby boomers to stave off SS applications for retirement payments? Helping meet or delay the cost of SS? Conspiracy theory? I know that I'm paranoid and delusional, perhaps just due to the waning fleeting moments of the worst administration that has ever been in charge of this country. It's almost over and we might survive long enough to realize this financial experiment and Nov. voting with stupidity for a shock and awe effect have both been in error. GW ruined the companies and country he ran with blatant disregard for the people of. GW looked into the eyes of probably the most dangerous man on earth and didn't see a thing, neither did Putin.
Keeping foreign investments in the dollar is the only thing to keep Rome from burning. That appears a more dismal outlook with each crisis. The CDO swaps dwarf this bailout and have not been regulated. Depending on where you read, they total somewhere between $11T and $60T. The Street took the market for a $700B loss 9/29 because the hill shot down a $700B bailout? Interesting numbers there. How much will the CDO crisis be? At least it will be without Curious George.
SMH @ 52 week low, $23½.
Here that very same chart from the St. Louis Fed shows up:
Hmmm, protecting the markets is endangering the markets.
Go figure.
I luv Meredith Whitney. Her analysis on financials is gold.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=808357964&play=1
Take note of when Maria asks about LEH.
Anybody like charts?
http://bp3.blogger.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SJHnHPPUu_I/AAAAAAAAC_k/cLEoXcgSagM/s1600-h/Totol-Borrowings-From-Fed.png
Mean anything?
http://bp1.blogger.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SJHojTLl25I/AAAAAAAAC_s/W2IH2gET5UY/s1600-h/non-borrowed-reserves.png
Someone said that there was a light up ahead?
http://bp0.blogger.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SJCj70RbyvI/AAAAAAAAC-8/-HaQM-24h0M/s1600-h/case-shiller-2008-05.png
It's July.....
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=smh&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=e200,b,e5,e20&a=vm,r14,w14,m26-12-9&c=
Disclaimer:Investing in equities involves a serious principal risk, and no assurance can be given that the techniques described here will be successful.Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your shares.Performance is no guarantee.
You Know The Banking System Is Unsound When....
1. Paulson appears on Face The Nation and says "Our banking system is a safe and a sound one." If the banking system was safe and sound, everyone would know it (or at least think it). There would be no need to say it.
2. Paulson says the list of troubled banks "is a very manageable situation". The reality is there are 90 banks on the list of problem banks. Indymac was not one of them until a month before it collapsed. How many other banks will magically appear on the list a month before they collapse?
3. In a Northern Rock moment, depositors at Indymac pull out their cash. Police had to be called in to ensure order.
4. Washington Mutual (WM), another troubled bank, refused to honor Indymac cashier's checks. The irony is it makes no sense for customers to pull insured deposits out of Indymac after it went into receivership. The second irony is the last place one would want to put those funds would be Washington Mutual. Eventually Washington Mutual decided it would take those checks but with an 8 week hold. Will Washington Mutual even be around 8 weeks from now?
5. Paulson asked for "Congressional authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE)" just days after he said "Financial Institutions Must Be Allowed To Fail". Obviously Paulson is reporting from the 5th dimension. In some alternate universe, his statements just might make sense.
6. Former Fed Governor William Poole says "Fannie Mae, Freddie Losses Makes Them Insolvent".
7. Paulson says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are "essential" because they represent the only "functioning" part of the home loan market. The firms own or guarantee about half of the $12 trillion in U.S. mortgages. Is it possible to have a sound banking system when the only "functioning" part of the mortgage market is insolvent?
8. Bernanke testified before Congress on monetary policy but did not comment on either money supply or interest rates. The word "money" did not appear at all in his testimony. The only time "interest rate" appeared in his testimony was in relation to consumer credit card rates. How can you have any reasonable economic policy when the Fed chairman is scared half to death to discuss interest rates and money supply?
9. The SEC issued a protective order to protect those most responsible for naked short selling. As long as the investment banks and brokers were making money engaging in naked shorting of stocks, there was no problem. However, when the bears began using the tactic against the big financials, it became time to selectively enforce the existing regulation.
10. The Fed takes emergency actions twice during options expirations week in regards to the discount window and rate cuts.
11. The SEC takes emergency action during options expirations week regarding short sales.
12. The Fed has implemented an alphabet soup of pawn shop lending facilities whereby the Fed accepts garbage as collateral in exchange for treasuries. Those new Fed lending facilities are called the Term Auction Facility (TAF), the Term Security Lending Facility (TSLF), and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF).
13. Citigroup (C), Lehman (LEH), Morgan Stanley(MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Merrill Lynch (MER) all have a huge percentage of level 3 assets. Level 3 assets are commonly known as "marked to fantasy" assets. In other words, the value of those assets is significantly if not ridiculously overvalued in comparison to what those assets would fetch on the open market. It is debatable if any of the above firms survive in their present form. Some may not survive in any form.
14. Bernanke openly solicits private equity firms to invest in banks. Is this even close to a remotely normal action for Fed chairman to take?
15. Bear Stearns was taken over by JPMorgan (JPM) days after insuring investors it had plenty of capital. Fears are high that Lehman will suffer the same fate. Worse yet, the Fed had to guarantee the shotgun marriage between Bear Stearns and JP Morgan by providing as much as $30 billion in capital. JPMorgan is responsible for only the first 1/2 billion. Taxpayers are on the hook for all the rest. Was this a legal action for the Fed to take? Does the Fed care?
16. Citigroup needed a cash injection from Abu Dhabi and a second one elsewhere. Then after announcing it would not need more capital is raising still more. The latest news is Citigroup will sell $500 billion in assets. To who? At what price?
17. Merrill Lynch raised $6.6 billion in capital from Kuwait Mizuho, announced it did not need to raise more capital, then raised more capital a few week later.
18. Morgan Stanley sold a 9.9% equity stake to China International Corp. CEO John Mack compensated by not taking his bonus. How generous. Morgan Stanley fell from $72 to $37. Did CEO John Mack deserve a paycheck at all?
19. Bank of America (BAC) agreed to take over Countywide Financial (CFC) and twice announced Countrywide will add profits to B of A. Inquiring minds were asking "How the hell can Countrywide add to Bank of America earnings?" Here's how. Bank of America just announced it will not guarantee $38.1 billion in Countrywide debt. Questions over "Fraudulent Conveyance" are now surfacing.
20. Washington Mutual agreed to a death spiral cash infusion of $7 billion accepting an offer at $7.85 when the stock was over $13 at the time. Washington Mutual has since fallen in waterfall fashion from $40 and is now trading near $5.00 after a huge rally.
21. Shares of Ambac (ABK) fell from $90 to $2.50. Shared of MBIA (MBI) fell from $70 to $5. Sadly, the top three rating agencies kept their rating on the pair at AAA nearly all the way down. No one can believe anything the government sponsored rating agencies say.
22. In a panic set of moves, the Fed slashed interest rates from 5.25% to 2%. This was the fastest, steepest drop on record. Ironically, the Fed chairman spoke of inflation concerns the entire drop down. Bernanke clearly cannot tell the truth. He does not have to. Actions speak louder than words.
23. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said the FDIC is looking for ways to shore up its depleted deposit fund, including charging higher premiums on riskier brokered deposits.
24. There is roughly $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. $2.60 Trillion of that is uninsured. There is only $53 billion in FDIC insurance to cover $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. Indymac will eat up roughly $8 billion of that.
25. Of the $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits, the total cash on hand at banks is a mere $273.7 Billion. Where is the rest of the loot? The answer is in off balance sheet SIVs, imploding commercial real estate deals, Alt-A liar loans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, toggle bonds where debt is amazingly paid back with more debt, and all sorts of other silly (and arguably fraudulent) financial wizardry schemes that have bank and brokerage firms leveraged at 30-1 or more. Those loans cannot be paid back.
What cannot be paid back will be defaulted on. If you did not know it before, you do now. The entire US banking system is insolvent.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
**********************************************************
If Congress gives the $$$ away, we might get a better short entry price. SKF is buy-able here as the bill from the hill will fix it all? Not. It's global. Not just in the USA. Oil could drop another $40 and it's not going to make ends meet. I passed on SKF in May because it was too expensive. Time adds a bit more perspective.
Disclaimer:Investing in equities involves a serious principal risk, and no assurance can be given that the techniques described here will be successful.Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your shares.Performance is no guarantee.
The coming elections are hopeless I'm afraid. More so if Hillary is tapped for VP.
Quite possibly be a Paul write in for me. Too bad that not enough people stop and listen to what's really being said, instead of what they want to hear.
I guess this part was edited from the broadcast by FOX.
Charter, Tout au contraire as to no interest. I read your posts and have been surprised at some of your accuracy. Uncanny to the point that I wanted the same model crystal ball that you use for I've my doubts of ever learning how to read charts as you do. I've emailed you and will look forward to receiving your updates, as I would expect a few others that frequent this board will.
Thx
For those dying to put on rally hats, here's some interesting charts.
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Remember any rally is a bear rally and how long to ride it. Unless you can see the turn around in those charts screaming buy,buy,buy.
Anybody notice how $Ben and Paulson's lies are starting to have less effect on the markets and how their own time lines to prosperity have not only slipped from 2H08 thru '09 to 'maybe' within 2 years? I think the Credit Suisse chart of mortgage resets has to play out first. It'll be interesting with the Aug FOMC meeting and $Ben screws any chance of economic recovery in housing or takes yet another step of do nothing or lower just like Japan did. 19 years later they are starting to see growth in housing.
Hmmp, that's a long time.
http://bp2.blogger.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/R_HlCECrufI/AAAAAAAACZE/E1WPLRuaWmY/s1600-h/Mortgage-Rate-Resets-1.png
"It's getting exciting now, 2 and 1/2. Think of everything we've accomplished, man. Out these windows, we will view the collapse of financial history. One step closer to economic equilibrium. "- Tyler Durnden
Disclaimer:Investing in equities involves a serious principal risk, and no assurance can be given that the techniques described here will be successful.Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your shares.Performance is no guarantee.
Is it possible? Someone on the hill actually gets it? Aside from Ron Paul, I didn't think any of them got it.
"First, on monetary policy, I am deeply concerned about what the Fed has done in the last year and in the last decade. Chairman Greenspan’s easy money the late nineties and then following the tech bust inflated the housing bubble and created the mess we are in today. Chairman Bernanke’s easy money in the last year has undermined the dollar and sent oil to new record highs every few days, and almost doubling since the rate cuts started. Inflation is here and it is hurting average Americans."
http://bunning.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=NewsCenter.NewsReleases&ContentRecord_id=2753fd62-c45e-4a40-5ca8-66fa83d52a00
Giving those that caused the problem more power is not the fix. One more fix for a heroin junkie is not the road to recovery. The accountability of those responsible for the oversight of the markets could be a novel idea as the SEC is now going to require obtaining shares to sell short, instead of naked. I guess it's alright to do it with small companies and drive them out of business, but when it's done to big Wall Street types it prompts the SEC to apply the rules. The SEC has refused to implement and enforce Section 17A of the 1934 Securities Exchange Act, but now calls upon it because Wall Street's 'Big Boys' are becoming the naked short target, go figure.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aForAmXi1B.w&refer=home
ftc, Oh I agree that MRVL makes some great stuff and a few will sell. It's not only MRVL chips that are going to be sitting on the shelves and inventory backed up as no orders to deplete it arrive. Everybody is going to slow to a point that their ERs will look like it hit a brick wall. If you thought sub-prime was a mess take note that all the talk at IndyMac was about Alt-A. Alt-A is just starting and Option ARM follows. Paulson and $Ben are laying the groundwork and jawboning to try and keep it a float. $Ben asked for more oversight. Paulson says that we have to let things fail. It's coming. The only thing behind us is BSC. Freddie and Fannie could take much more than 1000 points off the DOW. MBIA and Ambac are in the same boat and will impact everybody. Could be another 1000. C has to sell ½ their assets and are afraid to cut dividends because of the mass exodus that would follow and they aren't the only ones. Some are borrowing to pay dividends and there's starting to not be any money to borrow. MRVL needs to get their loan paid off, but also needs money for salaries and TSMC purchases. The wheels are falling off and your looking at growth. I wish it was a bull market, but we may be setting new lows till 2012. Companies need banks for operations and when they go to Mother Hubbard FSB they're going to be disappointed. Hasn't every bull market been led by financials? Or they've been right there behind the leaders. Do you see that happening? Think about it.
It's not all across the country. Some spots are very bad. Georgia has about 48 banks on it's watch list to fail. They may come in waves, soon.
http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2008/06/28/bank_real_estate.html
Stronger banks will have to eat weaker banks as they implode. Does BAC's diet of CFC make it any stronger? How long can they eat trash and stay healthy? Not saying that BAC is healthy in the first place. That meal probably had more to do with interconnection and default than love. It'll get worst and we'll have another bear rally. I think we could have one real soon. All the noise is big scary headlines, and you know who controls the media.
They need to take Freddie's Fannie into conservatorship liquidate assets and abolish government sponsorship of owning a home that you can not afford, undermining renting. Life within means, not thy neighbors. MBI, ABK, FRE, FNM could take us to DOW 9K unless they can convince via jawboning. Can they do anything else? Where do you think MRVL will be?
"These ridiculous statements about Fannie being "well capitalized" smack of the same nonsense we heard with round after round of never-ending capital raising efforts at many financials. Does anyone remember these assertions?
* Citigroup (C) is well capitalized.
* Lehman (LEH) is well capitalized.
* Merrill Lynch (MER) is well capitalized.
* Ambac (ABK) is well capitalized.
* MBIA (MBI) is well capitalized.
* Bear Stearns (BSC) is well capitalized.
Now we are hearing that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are well capitalized. Everyone knows it's a lie. So why say it? The answer is obvious: to attempt to placate the markets. Lies, however, can never accomplish that."
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Or will they just put it on your tab at the IRS? Socialized risky investing for the rich?
Welcome to the great US Banana Republic.
GW Bonaparte fishin' with dad in New Orleans.
ftc, Don't get so excited! I said "in everything from the router to a hairbrush". C'mon. Are you just peeved at the decline? The whole market is. Have you been over at Yahoo? It's OK, MRVL will be right back leading the techs when the rally starts. So will BRCM. It's just that the whole world is starting to catch on that the bills aren't getting paid and people are starving to death or at least going hungry. That's common in some places, but not so much in the western world. MRVL might even get back down cheaper to buy by the time I'm done with QID, DXD, TWM and SDS. That'd be cool.
I've also posted before where I believed that the WiFi/wireless dept of MRVL could become bigger than the PXAxxx (formerly Xscale) and that division has grown to where RIMM has become a 10% customer, whereas Samsung, and Western Digital were the only ones since Seagate bought Maxtor and Seagate is buying more to possibly be some day. Although as MRVL increases revenue that 10% mark may become harder to obtain and that's a good thing. MRVL had WiFi before the first Feroceon chips, Orion, were being tested in May of 2005, I believe. They were already working on 8.11n. I don't know that there is any Feroceon technology in WiFi or not, but MRVL lists Feroceon and Shiva on the media vault pages and you can find them in NAS devices all of which are as an application processor. MRVL lists Pico stuff with it's WiFi. WiFi and Blue have been built on ARM technology, so I don't know for sure that there are none or any with Feroceon. But WiFi has been around longer than Feroceon. The 8.11n may well be. The 8.11a/b/g probably not as the first Feroceon was 2005. MRVL had WiFi and founded late '90 and going public around 2001, if I remember right. Sehat announced the Feroceon and stated that they had 5 years working on it. MRVL made 8.11a/b/g much earlier than Feroceon. The 8.11 time lines are 1997 to '99 for the a/b and '03 for the g. That's 2 years before Feroceon. It's possible that that technology has been incorporated into some or all of their WiFi, but why rework a net card or chip that was just developed and spend again, or make the sucker and sell it. It is possible that the 8.11n could be but fail to see where variable piplineing out of order instructions would benefit a network construction that yields to the strongest signal. Whereas WiMax will latch like DSL, WiFi is a tramp and will talk to the first and then strongest, losing previous connect. I've my doubts as to Feroceon in WiFi, but would love to see the text. It's not important enough for my curiosity. MRVL's pre-existing before Feroceon WiFi was power misery enough. The multiple streams of 8.11n may just be a reason for that technology, but if 8.11a/g work with 1 antenna they won't need 3 on a cell phone.
Disclaimer:Investing in equities involves a serious principal risk, and no assurance can be given that the techniques described here will be successful.Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your shares.Performance is no guarantee.
ftc, The WiFi slot is a small win for MRVL and a good one as WiFi integrates into everything from routers to a hairbrush. It's still not enough revenue to reflect much at the pace that MRVL is growing, but every bit helps.
That link on Atom was another "could be" story. The best power savings at rest that I've found of the Silverthorn INTC line was 200mw. PXAxxx is 2mw and a mobile phone needs to max out with heavy consumption preferably under 350mw. I don't see it, but those spec were 45nm not 32 nm.
It's much like Dimon, Paulson and $Ben saying that the mortgage biz is getting better. Not saying that they are lying albeit they're liars. It's relative, I guess. A .0000000001% percent of a heartbeat is better than the time spent waiting to see if it will beat again.
Disclaimer:Investing in equities involves a serious principal risk, and no assurance can be given that the techniques described here will be successful.Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your shares.Performance is no guarantee.
Oh My !!!
The FDIC is keeping the new IndyMac FSB name close enough to the old one that maybe some of the signs won't have to be replaced as they sell it off piece by piece or find someone to buy the whole mess. The Dubai SWF just bought the Chrysler building and may be too busy. So if $Ben will put Freddie's Fannie cost on the taxpayers the Chinese or Japanese can start buying our banks from the gains on those bonds being bailed out. The far East can start buying banks outright as Saudi and Dubai have only bought part of with C and MER.
Then again, they may not want to use the same color scheme and charge off $5M replacing signs and sell it before they get the signs installed. Isn't that the way our government works?
benx & ftc, Thx for the iPhone links. It kept the WiFi Blue from previous wins of iTouch and 1st gen iPhone? I thought that they couldn't find Blue in the Touch. I can't believe that with that size of a display they went with a 1050mAh battery, but I never found the 1st gen battery size. I thought that it had to be pushing 3000mAh by it's size and screen demand, but ftc's link says that it was a 1400mAh. That's big, but ½ of what I thought.
On some of the related links on those pages there's an article about a 32nm Atom being in the next design and a QCOM msm7201 ARM11 with integrated high speed baseband. Tavor needs some more design wins before QCOM gets that puppy rolling.
The prospectus for every GSE bond clearly states that it is not backed by the United States government.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/chinese-government-top-foreign-holder/story.aspx?guid=%7B347DF7BF-F0B7-48C9-A418-5A0B903D9F72%7D&dist=hppr
So $Ben opens the window? Maybe he should just tear down the wall.
Who's next after IndyMac? WB or WM? Somebody flip a coin and call it in the air.
benx, yeah it's significant issue enough to refrain me from buying. I'm not a big enough consumer as I can't even afford to pay attention. AAPL has many advantages over competitors that are focused on it's software. If you could even just swap a spare battery as in many of the ultra thin phones I think AAPL could excel bigger and better. They will sell a lot of them just with their branding and cult following. The power issues that prevented the original release from being 3G were resolved by what, when, and how? Wasn't that processor and baseband available last year? The RIMM products with Tavor and most likely soon in Sam's should be superior in battery life, but fall short of AAPL's software. That's my disappointment.
Still in search of the Holy Grail.
And when Walt Mossberg reported that it sometimes goes dead in your pocket before you get off work and although AAPL returned to a drop in battery, it's not user replaceable. I think that may change. There is power loss in that mechanical connection, but much easier to replace. Why SJ went with that processor and a sealed case without a user spare battery is beyond me. RIMM will score once that becomes more commonly know to consumers. SJ has been brilliant in several ventures, but I think this could be on the list of follies. The neatest thing since sliced bread, but it's dead. Perhaps a ploy to sell extra chargers or a second phone for after work? How many BB users have you seen carrying their charger with them? Even the Samsungs with PXAxxxs can leave the charger at home. Sam learned that with the Blackjack and sold it with two batteries. Anybody care to guess why?
ftc, what did MRVL do before May 2005?
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml;?articleID=163702145
Marvell has begun sampling its Feroceon chip in an evaluation board, In-Stat said in a newsletter, adding that the 0.15-micron Orion chip is Marvell's first SoC instantiation of Feroceon. Marvell plans to ship parts at clock frequencies of up to 600MHz and parts are sampling, In-Stat added.
http://www.marvell.com/technologies/processors/index.jsp
The Thinkdigit link posted picturing Orion has info linked to a pic click. That could be a WiFi beside the CPU, but I don't see an antenna. It appears to be about the size of a USB blade. Both of which are MRVL.
ftc, The Feroceon is an apps processor. MRVL developed it and was thought to be what they would use to enter the mobile phone market prior to the INTC opportunity. It's fully scalable and can change it's pipelining of instruction reducing execution and issue to retire time.
From InStat:
The Feroceon makes some significant changes to the standard ARM fixed pipeline, with a variable-stage pipeline that ranges from six stages to eight if the writeback stage is included.
Most ARM processors (and many other embedded processors) employ an in-order, fixed-stage pipeline design because it is simpler to construct and uses less logic, In-Stat said. The instructions per cycle (IPC) of an in-order, fixed-stage pipeline will often be fairly low unless other features are added, such as multithreading or superscalarity.
In contrast, a variable-stage pipeline optimizes the number of clock cycles needed from issue to retire on each instruction, avoids wasting processor resources, and minimizes the branch penalty from dead clock cycles. With these changes to the ARM core, the Feroceon processor could also support dual-issue operation, In-Stat said.
These are used in NAS and Media vaults along with Shiva.
http://www.marvell.com/products/media/index.jsp
WiFi is Piconet.
http://www.marvell.com/products/wireless/Embedded_Mobile_Solutions.jsp
Here's the Orion that's based on Feroceon. Pictured in center of board. Note size vs the WiFi PicoNet or PicoIWLAN+ as seen in AAPL iPhone tear down. This is not a $6 chip.
http://www.thinkdigit.com/forum/showthread.php?p=789339
ATHR, BRCM, MRVL, Cambridge Silicon Radio, any of which could have the WiFi.
BRCM may have even bundled the GPS, screen controller and WiFi into the 3G iPhone. The power of pricing.
http://www.broadcom.com/products/Wireless-LAN/Wi-Fi-Phone-Solutions
http://www.broadcom.com/products/GPS/GPS-Silicon-Solutions
ftc, I don't know the exact specs on Tavor power consumption, but if the 3G iPhone can die in your pocket by the end of workday. Unless Walt Mossberg works some very long hours, I've doubts that it's a Tavor. My understanding was that Tavor, developed by INTC, was an Xscale family combo 3G baseband processor. That entire family has the sleep mode that drops to like 2 mw. It would surprise me if Tavor was unable to do the same or close thereby. We know that RIMM is using Tavor and that all of RIMM's BB have the battery life to provide the operational hours. Without the bundling advantage with the processor, BRCM could with it's screen controller. Thus MRVL could very well have lost the WiFi slot.
I have nothing to gain and nothing to lose. This is just news, don't shoot the messenger.
Might have to paste the entire URL or go to 2nd link and watch the top right clip. There's also one about the Sam.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid={70E4CE48-774E-4D54-8F1B-4324CCE0B0A8}&dist=msrv_1')
http://www.marketwatch.com/search/?value=walt%20mossberg
poor,
AA reports AH tomorrow and they have been a good short for 10 of their last 13 ERs. The economy problems aren't US specific. True they are international and will benefit from exchange rates, plus the spot price per ton has increased. However, the short from close to close following CC has a pretty good batting average. Last report 'the boys' had a rally that went into the afternoon prior to report. Pump to dump. The same thing happened last time with GE the following Friday (Thursday rally), as GE opens our Friday with their report. Do you think either will surprise the world? Remember that GE is a financial in drag and all that that implies.
The VIX is over 25, but not 30.
I wonder if FDIC and OCC will be changing IndyMac's sign come Friday?
Disclaimer:Investing in equities involves a serious principal risk, and no assurance can be given that the techniques described here will be successful.Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your shares.Performance is no guarantee.
Any surprise that GS downgrades these financials during a federal holiday hiatus in the US markets?
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL0430503520080704?rpc=44
Does anybody believe that GS would have taken any SKF positions during the light day Thursday?
Hold on to your lugnuts boys, it's tiiiiime for an overhaul!
$144 oil
ECB rate hike
unemployment
Hmmm
Psychology of the Call sez:
In the meantime, what do you do if you were long the last two days, and you're still long going in to Monday's potential bloodbath?
poor, I've still a few longs, but have been more focused on short of the NDX. Thought it had farther to fall. Short of the DIA would have paid better, unless the Nasi will break down to that second gap like benx said. It may today or soon. I'm looking to buy SSO (among other index ETFs) once we find a bottom on this trip. I think that we'll move back up soon, but be right back again this year. Maybe a couple three times a year until they can get the financial fraud written off and/or refinanced. 2012/2013? Alt-A is knocking on the door along with commercial. Pay Option ARMs will reach the headlines soon and there's as much there as was in sub-prime. Sub-prime is about 33% done. Pay Option ARMs have a larger % of them sitting in California. Like 60%. Rising unemployment, California home prices, State finances ... that's going to be yet another jagged pill to swallow and $Ben raising rates to stave off inflation at a time for those resets. Consumption and dollar weakness sure shows up at the pumps. Although many countries make bank on the taxes on fuel, it's hurting economies. Central Banks globally are getting pissed at $Ben and as they raise collectively they will force $Ben and if he doesn't get his teeth into it and has to play catch up, remember Volcker pushed rates up some 20% to fight inflation. Refi on that one. With a house that's worth ½ of the lien. Without a job. In a city/county that's raising taxes as it's muni bonds have gotten jacked by default insurers as it's fighting bankruptcy it's self. What kind of a picture that could be.....
Greenspan and Rubin worked collectively to rid Glass Steagall for the betterment of Wall Street and here we are. If you've read much about a Jekyll Island meeting many years ago, you can see how Rubin did this when he was US Treasure to foreign governments and now the 'Elite" get to do it to the US. Like the peso moved it's decimal point over, they're doing to the dollar. Read this old report on Rubin's legacy and see how it's being applied to us now.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/1999/may1999/rub-m14.shtml
Disclaimer:Investing in equities involves a serious principal risk, and no assurance can be given that the techniques described here will be successful.Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your shares.Performance is no guarantee.
Stevie,
"The Dark Side"
**************************************************
poor_user, SSO is selling for less than $63, but I'd wait. They won't put it all in the fan at once. We will rally and we will be back.
The estimate of the housing downturn turnaround has moved forward considerably from 2013 to 2012. The light at the end of the tunnel is just a lantern and that's just a hole in the ground. Believe the warm fuzzy cheerleaders if you wish. They lie.
Some people might be able to buy SMH for $29.99 today.
SteveNix, Greenspan is a paid mouthpiece for John Paulson's Hedge fund. He's the one that made some $3.7B on his 1099 last year from shorting housing. The fund made $16B from it. I thought that it was fitting that Greenspan gets paid by some of those that made a killing from the house of cards that Greenspan helped build. Not only his rate policies, but his continuing efforts at the repeal of Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 that he finally got Rubin to push past the White House with the help of Citi CEO. Rubin got paid as well in that he's still a VP at Citi. A slot that was created for him to resign from US Treasury as soon as they killed the act that prevented the Financials from doing what they have just done again. Greenspan can speak English since he retired. Amazing.
Greenspan May 5th 2005: "Perhaps the clearest evidence of the perceived benefits that derivatives have provided is their continued spectacular growth."
If you look at how they have adjusted the GDP deflator for the last ¼s in historical comparisons, we've been in recession since 4Q07. Those numbers will most likely be revised with the new tenant at the White House. Some will say that GW Bonaparte was tweaking the numbers. Some will say they are passing the blame. Others will look at the numbers and wonder how and why there was such a move to this adjustment in the GDP from historical trends. Hmmph, go figure.
Are these stories all from the same planet?
http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080610/D916SMF00.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/16/cncash116.xml
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/06/tent-city-usa.html
That tune from Rocky Horror Picture Show comes to mind. You know the one where Brad and Janet find the castle.
Economic Checkmate
After the dollar has lost 40% since 2002. G.W. Bonaparte and his administration continues to drop the value of the dollar with occasional 'tough talk' and no action causing temporary hiatus in it's decline. Global Central Banks have been pushed into pressuring for dollar stability and/or it's removal from the pricing of oil. The only thing that gives it any strength at all. If the Fed raises rates, as many Fed Governors are speaking out against $Ben's policies, the market will hurt and prolong any financial recovery. Just think what rate hikes will do to a housing recovery that's the first step in battling unemployment (which increased last week) that battles credit card default (on the rise) and foreclosures (which doubled last month). Sub-prime hasn't bottomed and Alt-A will follow, then we'll come to the Option ARMs. What will Fed rate be then? Anybody see the light at the end of the tunnel? Anybody see images of what Volcker had to deal with? How would his rate policies effect this situation?
Worldwide protests on fuel that's costing lives. Requiring governments to use military and police actions to quell the protests over fuel prices.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23494001-details/Riot+police+go+in+to+break+up+Spanish+truckers%27+fuel+protests+as+fury+over+spiralling+costs+spreads+around+the+world/article.do
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/10/AR2008061002877.html?hpid=moreheadlines
This link isn't just about LEH
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/06/wild-ride-in-lehman-financials.html
Will this prompt OPEC to drop the dollar pricing on oil and go to Euros? And the cause and effect on the dollar? GW could easily have the dollar off 50% by the time he clears the White House. We should all remember the look of global disbelief on the faces across the globe with the outcome of the last presidential election in the US and who you voted for.
"Against an increasingly uncertain macro backdrop, we expect the structural change story to strongly outperform purely cyclical plays in 2H08."
It's that macroeconomic environment of the financials doing worst than 1Q08 coming the next few ¼s was what I was talking about MRVL bringing the fastest race car to the track as Noah's storm unfolds. This will help them from returning to the lows as the rest of the world (not just our markets) adjusts. I think S2 was very correct in his opinion that this will certainly be a money maker, but buy after a pullback. Their growth will be hit with other people's problems. Not MRVL's. The wider demand than the analyst anticipated helps, but may have issues when MRVL customers inventory builds due to lack of consumer spending. Definitely any pull backs should be viewed as buying opportunities. The rumor of a take over was started by someone for a reason. Someone with media clout that's up to something. You don't start a rumor with just a message board pump. The Sutardja's just got their baby out of the garage and it's one of the fastest on the track, they aren't going to sell, IMO. They didn't after their crash. Why would they now?
ftc, I couldn't agree with you more. By all accounts that I've found the SilverThorne, Moorestown and Atom's power consumption at rest are too much for mobile phone use with any ops time to speak of. But what I saw was rather intriguing in the game play area. A lot more than ARM processors have done or that I'm aware of. That's what got my attention.
When I heard RIM and AAPL 3G announcements, I thought that they had Tavor written all over them. Other OEMs will follow. I expect Samsung next.
Disclaimer:Investing in equities involves a serious principal risk, and no assurance can be given that the techniques described here will be successful.Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your shares.Performance is no guarantee.
Exactly satyaa, Sehat wouldn't want to do it even if the bid went to shareholders. He'd do something that jacked the share price. MRVL would start a PR campaign showing all of the design wins and shed more light on product flow, along with what's happening with all the R&D that they've dedicated for the last couple years.
That would still be an ARM. What I was talking about was games that I didn't know were able to run on anything but a CISC. I haven't found what all it's able to run, but what I saw surprised me a bit.
The game support might have changed. I don't know.
Disclaimer:Investing in equities involves a serious principal risk, and no assurance can be given that the techniques described here will be successful.Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your shares.Performance is no guarantee.
ftc, I saw a thing in the news that showed the accelerometers that flip the display as it's turned are some of the controllers in the games. Really great use of equipment on board, but it brings to worry of the type of processor. That's one of the benefits of an x86 processor, the ability to support window based games. I'm not saying that that's an Atom, but it did raise an eyebrow. I'm not sure as to gaming support with a RISC. What games does your wife's support? Perhaps they can.
Disclaimer:Investing in equities involves a serious principal risk, and no assurance can be given that the techniques described here will be successful.Returns vary and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your shares.Performance is no guarantee.